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How many more elite years for Brees? (1 Viewer)

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
As we've seen a drop off this year from Brady, it got thinking about Drew Brees. Do you think age is becoming a factor for either of these QBs? How many more good years do you expect to get from Brees in a dynasty?

I know some of Brady's issues are with the MASSIVE changes in his receiving core, something Brees hasn't had to do with (although Colston seems to be fading)

Just wondered how you sharks view Brees long term prospects. Hoping for 2-3 more elite years? Possibly less?

 
Brees is at least going to be around 5-6 more elite years followed by some high production but not elite years. The work Dr. Andrews did on him actually improved him and the possibility of longevity. However the way he was getting batted around in the Bills game if they don't start protecting him better that could change over night. Brees has a very solid work ethic as well and is in great shape physically. He plays younger than he is IMO.

 
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A QB doesn't need a strong arm or mobility to do well in that offense. He also doesn't need all-pro receivers.

I think this transition will be well managed through the end of his contract, and by his last year they will have a project QB (Ryan Griffin?), a draftee or a new free agent ready to step in, they will have it planned out, and I would not be surprised if Brees hands over the reins while he sits as a kind of assistant coach with a clipboard the last year. I'd say 5 years, and they have the specific goal of winning another SB befor then you can be sure.

 
No reason he can't play into his late 30s / 40 -- defenses can't even use harsh language towards a QB anymore. Manning and Brady too, IMO. All three of those guys are great above the shoulders primarily and can afford to lose a little off of the fastball while remaining great players.

 
I would say 3-4 years

You have to consider that this holds a degree of relativity. Elite QBs are such because they are above the average QB. You have to look at how many QBs are out there who *could* jump to elite some day. Brees' stats could take a dive in the next 3 years, but as long as he's producing more than 90%of the other starting QBs out there, he will be considered elite.

Personally, I think the young talent at QB is a little scarce, but exciting nonetheless. I would say Brees has 3-4 years of elite status left and then he will just be "good"

 
3 years sounds about right, with another few years of solid production.

Love that guy...nothing better than him standing on his tip-toes, behind the OL, throwing darts to anyone and everyone on the field. What a franchise altering FA signing he was for the Saints.

 
The reason Brady declined is more on his OL than it is on his receivers. Brady had all of his good passing seasons behind a dominant OL; he never got dirty, and if you give him time he can make all the throws. He's got a relatively slow release, so now that he's under more pressure he's having difficulty putting up big passing numbers.

Brees, like Manning, has a lightning-quick release, and great field vision, so he's probably less affected by fluctuations in line play than Brady. I'm really not worried about the receivers for Brees; he can produce with anyone they put into that offense. It will come down to his health; he'll be more able to produce at 40 than Brett Favre was, for example, if he's still upright.

 
38 is usually the drop-off for QB's so I expect 3 more elite years.
I think it's bad logic to talk about what's "usually" true for a position, and apply that as a prediction to individuals. "Usually," QBs are out of the league before they're 30. In NFL history there have only been 7 QBs who've put up 200 fantasy points at age 37: YA Tittle, Roger Staubach, Doug Flutie, John Elway, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner. It is true that only one of those (Warner) put up 200+ points at age 38, but it's hard to imagine that's a meaningful sample size, especially since Flutie and Gannon are not comps for Brees, and Tittle and Staubach are pretty weak comps as well. Also, Warren Moon put up three seasons after age 37 that were better than his season at age 37, and Favre put up one at age 41 that was better.

So, of 5 QBs who are reasonably comparable to Brees, two of them put up their last elite season at age 37, and three of them put up their last elite season at ages 38, 41 and 41. Both of the ones who put up their last elite season at age 37 (Elway and Young) were injured in the subsequent season; Elway played just as well but missed 3 games, and Young retired.

Manning is about to join this club; do you think this is Manning's last elite season?

 
Manning is about to join this club; do you think this is Manning's last elite season?
If he stays healthy and wants to keep playing I think he can keep playing at an elite level for several more years. However football is a very tough game and the hits take their toll on older players. Peyton still has a tough schedule and the playoffs to get through healthy.

 
38 is usually the drop-off for QB's so I expect 3 more elite years.
I think it's bad logic to talk about what's "usually" true for a position, and apply that as a prediction to individuals. "Usually," QBs are out of the league before they're 30. In NFL history there have only been 7 QBs who've put up 200 fantasy points at age 37: YA Tittle, Roger Staubach, Doug Flutie, John Elway, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner. It is true that only one of those (Warner) put up 200+ points at age 38, but it's hard to imagine that's a meaningful sample size, especially since Flutie and Gannon are not comps for Brees, and Tittle and Staubach are pretty weak comps as well. Also, Warren Moon put up three seasons after age 37 that were better than his season at age 37, and Favre put up one at age 41 that was better.

So, of 5 QBs who are reasonably comparable to Brees, two of them put up their last elite season at age 37, and three of them put up their last elite season at ages 38, 41 and 41. Both of the ones who put up their last elite season at age 37 (Elway and Young) were injured in the subsequent season; Elway played just as well but missed 3 games, and Young retired.
Out of all of the HOF QB's who've ever played only Favre, Moon and Warner have scored over 250 FP's at 38 or older.

I'll play the odds.

 
38 is usually the drop-off for QB's so I expect 3 more elite years.
I think it's bad logic to talk about what's "usually" true for a position, and apply that as a prediction to individuals. "Usually," QBs are out of the league before they're 30. In NFL history there have only been 7 QBs who've put up 200 fantasy points at age 37: YA Tittle, Roger Staubach, Doug Flutie, John Elway, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner. It is true that only one of those (Warner) put up 200+ points at age 38, but it's hard to imagine that's a meaningful sample size, especially since Flutie and Gannon are not comps for Brees, and Tittle and Staubach are pretty weak comps as well. Also, Warren Moon put up three seasons after age 37 that were better than his season at age 37, and Favre put up one at age 41 that was better.

So, of 5 QBs who are reasonably comparable to Brees, two of them put up their last elite season at age 37, and three of them put up their last elite season at ages 38, 41 and 41. Both of the ones who put up their last elite season at age 37 (Elway and Young) were injured in the subsequent season; Elway played just as well but missed 3 games, and Young retired.
Out of all of the HOF QB's who've ever played only Favre, Moon and Warner have scored over 250 FP's at 38 or older.

I'll play the odds.
OK, and how many had their last 250-point season at age 37? Two: Elway and Young. How about age 36? One: Manning (so far). How about age 35? Two: Favre and Brady (so far).

That's not odds. That's a set of unrelated data points.

 
Manning is about to join this club; do you think this is Manning's last elite season?
If he stays healthy and wants to keep playing I think he can keep playing at an elite level for several more years. However football is a very tough game and the hits take their toll on older players. Peyton still has a tough schedule and the playoffs to get through healthy.
I think the actual answer to the question is likely, "Until he gets hurt badly enough that he can't play a full season anymore," for both Brees and Manning. I just don't think the fact that Steve Young got a career-ending concussion at 38 has any bearing on whether the career-ending injury for Brees or Manning will happen at 38, or 37, or 41.

 
38 is usually the drop-off for QB's so I expect 3 more elite years.
I think it's bad logic to talk about what's "usually" true for a position, and apply that as a prediction to individuals. "Usually," QBs are out of the league before they're 30. In NFL history there have only been 7 QBs who've put up 200 fantasy points at age 37: YA Tittle, Roger Staubach, Doug Flutie, John Elway, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner. It is true that only one of those (Warner) put up 200+ points at age 38, but it's hard to imagine that's a meaningful sample size, especially since Flutie and Gannon are not comps for Brees, and Tittle and Staubach are pretty weak comps as well. Also, Warren Moon put up three seasons after age 37 that were better than his season at age 37, and Favre put up one at age 41 that was better.So, of 5 QBs who are reasonably comparable to Brees, two of them put up their last elite season at age 37, and three of them put up their last elite season at ages 38, 41 and 41. Both of the ones who put up their last elite season at age 37 (Elway and Young) were injured in the subsequent season; Elway played just as well but missed 3 games, and Young retired.
Out of all of the HOF QB's who've ever played only Favre, Moon and Warner have scored over 250 FP's at 38 or older.

I'll play the odds.
Normally I'd be in full agreement, but I think the league stepping in to protect offensive players in general, and QBs in particular, is definitely a potential game changer. Guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady might as well be wearing a different colored "do not touch" jersey, practice style nowadays.

 
The reason Brady declined is more on his OL than it is on his receivers.
Offensive line quality is what i worry about with Brees more than anything else. It's hard to keep a stud offensive line intact for very long these days. But if the Saints can manage to keep Brees' jersey relatively clean, high-level play to age 40 is a reasonable expectation.

If it weren't for whatever potential shoe might drop regarding Peyton Manning's neck, he could probably play into his mid-40s.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Normally I'd be in full agreement, but I think the league stepping in to protect offensive players in general, and QBs in particular, is definitely a potential game changer. Guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady might as well be wearing a different colored "do not touch" jersey, practice style nowadays.
QB's don't get hit as much now but they still get hit. Maybe the new rules make a big difference but a late 30's body can't handle getting hit like a younger player.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Normally I'd be in full agreement, but I think the league stepping in to protect offensive players in general, and QBs in particular, is definitely a potential game changer. Guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady might as well be wearing a different colored "do not touch" jersey, practice style nowadays.
QB's don't get hit as much now but they still get hit. Maybe the new rules make a big difference but a late 30's body can't handle getting hit like a younger player.
Agree with CSTU here. QBs are getting injured at an alarming pace this year. It's a mix of scrambling and being in the pocket too. The defenders are just bigger and faster than ever.

I just had the opportunity to trade for Brees in a dynasty league where I need a QB. QBs are overvalued as a general rule in that league. I passed on the trade for the simple reason that paying full price + for a QB that is near 35 years old, is a highly risky move.

If I knew I'd get three years of elite production I'd do it. However, at his age, his value could tank in an instant for a wide variety of reasons. How many concussions would it take for him to retire? If he misses a full season how much of his remaining value is lost? What if his level of play slips to more to a low end QB 1? Just a whole lot of reasons to be concerned about buying in to a near 35 year old QB. Now, if I already owned him, I'd gladly enjoy the ride to the end.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Normally I'd be in full agreement, but I think the league stepping in to protect offensive players in general, and QBs in particular, is definitely a potential game changer. Guys like Manning, Brees, and Brady might as well be wearing a different colored "do not touch" jersey, practice style nowadays.
QB's don't get hit as much now but they still get hit. Maybe the new rules make a big difference but a late 30's body can't handle getting hit like a younger player.
The 38 year old professional athlete of today with modern conditioning,the benefit of modern medicine, and elimination of the glorified asphalt that passed as aritificial turf in the past has much less "wear" than a player had even 10 years ago at a similar age. Add a league that still can't field 32 quality starters that is making a concerted effort to protect the QB and I think we're going to see several QBs still going into their early to mid forties over the next ten years. IMO, there are only two hurdles for a guy like Brees to remain an elite level QB for another 6-8 years. One, he has to avoid a catastrophic injury (which, Peyton has shown isn't necessarily a career ender at elevated ages). Two, he has to keep his fire for the game, which I think will be the more difficult aspect.

 
MoveToSkypager said:
I predict an argument about what elite means will happen.
Personally I predict five pages of people talking past each other, depending on whether they're coming at the question from an NFL perspective or a FF perspective.

In the "draft a franchise" thread a few months back, Greg Russell argued (IMO quite convincingly) that Brees should be the third player taken overall, because he's a proven winner and leader who you can just about bank on 5 more years out of - which is more than you should expect from two-thirds of the current NFL starters, regardless of their age. I'd add that you'd expect to be able to use those last couple of years to groom a successor under one of the great quick-thinking QB minds in NFL history, which is an invaluable asset in itself.

But from a fantasy perspective (and that's what FBG is all about), I think I would consider this year and perhaps two more of top-6 production likely, and anything beyond that to be gravy. I generally discount potential production in years 4+ in dynasty much more heavily than most, so this means little to me from the perspective of his current value, but YMMV.

 

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