How much does a ball control offense help a defense? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Just thinking out loud.

Over the last few years, several of the top fantasy defenses were also teams that ranked highly in terms of time of possession. Which got me wondering if the defenses were that good or if the offenses made the defenses look better.

Last year, the few times I saw the Panthers there defense look all right, but the offense held the ball so long that the defense had fewer possession to defend (and thus gave up fewer points and yards). If your offense has the ball, the defense obviously is not allowing any production.

Teams that were at or near the top of the league in terms of TOP and defense recently (like 5 or 6 minutes a game better) were:

2013 CIN, CAR

2012 HOU, SEA

2011 HOU, SF

2010, NYJ, NYG, SD, PIT

2009 GB, NYJ

So my questions would be . . .

Would teams that play conservative, move the chains, ball control offense be decent fantasy defense options (basically teams that may not be as highly ranked than some of the more elite defenses)?

Would teams that may not be able to play the same style offensively be in danger of slipping a fair amount defensively in terms of fantasy?

Using CAR again as an example, I think they will have some issues in their passing game this year, which equals fewer first downs, which equals worse field possession, which equals fewer possessions, which equals much more pressure on the defense, which could equal worse fantasy production. HOU last year had a lot of issues on offense and the defense was nowhere near the same, but I suspect injuries played a bigger role than anything else causing both sides of the ball to suffer.

 

[GregR]

The offensive and defensive drive stats from Football Outsiders might be useful here.

 

[12punch]

I think it can be a little of the chicken and the egg kind of thing.

when you measure an offense purely in terms of ToP you are implicitly factoring in the defense, as it's the defense that puts the offense on the field.

also, if the defense is no good the offense will get pulled out of their ball control scheme trying to keep pace with the other team's offense, while an excellent defense will allow their offense the luxury of sitting on the ball.

ps

on the specific panthers example, I would agree that they have a good chance to move backwards this year.

 

[tjnc09]

What about the Denver games that Tebow played in in ToP? It seemed like they were involved in a lot of low scoring games and then their defense got destroyed by NE in the playoffs.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Just looking at the #s from the Football Outsiders' links...

Carolina: Faced 10 more opponent drives. 7th in TO and 2nd in Takeaways. 6th in LOS vs. 4th in Opponent LOS.

San Francisco: Faced 5 more opponent drives. 4th in TO and 16th in Takeaways. 2nd in LOS vs 5th in Opponent LOS.

Seattle: Even Split on Drives. 5th in TO and 1st in Takeaways. 3rd in LOS vs 6th in Opponent LOS.

Philadelphia: Had 5 more drives than opponents. 3rd in TO and 4th in Takeaways. 16th in LOS vs 12th in Opponent LOS.

Denver: Faced 8 more opponent drives. 11th in TO and 18th in Takeaways. 17th in LOS vs 14th in Opponent LOS.

New England: Even Split on Drives. 10th in TO and 13th in Takeaways. 4th in LOS vs 3rd in Opponent LOS.

Not sure there's a major difference. "Ball Control" may allow for more opportunities at interceptions due to opposing teams needing to throw the ball but then Philadelphia rivaled the "ball control" teams there. Another argument could be that it allows for a more advantageous field position battle but again, New England performed the same.

I'd say the differences are miniscule and more reliant on scheme, personnel, and simply sample size. Team A that faces 30 drives may allow more yards & points but also get more yards & score more points whereas Team B that faces 18 drives may allow fewer yards & fewer points but may also give themselves lesser opportunities to gain yards & score points.

 

[GregR]

The difference in drives between two teams in their game (or vs opponents on a season) is going to come down to who had the ball at the end of the half and end of the game, or who ran a turnover back for a touchdown which resulted in the opponent getting back to back drives. I wouldn't look that to that as a measure of ball possession. You could have 11 or 12 drives to my 10 because you ended both halves with the ball, but if I had more plays, yards, and time of possession, I'd have won the ball control game.

For these purposes, I'd probably look at things like number of drives, yards, plays, TOP, compared to the league average or to other teams you're talking about, rather than comparing the same team's offensive and defensive stats. Things like teams who run hurry up offenses like the Broncos and Patriots are also going to play a role in total numbers, if not in the per drive numbers.

 

[bostonfred]

More so than almost any other position I think it depends on the scoring system. In some leagues, dallas was a starting d/st lasr year because they couldn't stop anyone without getting a turnover. If it doesnt matter how many points or yards they give up, then I want a defense with a high scoring offense and I want my defense on the field as much as possible so the opponent is passing more and I get more opportunies for sacks and turnofers. If I want a low scoring game without as many turnovers, then a conservative, ball control offense and a bend but don't break defense that got lots of opportunities for sacks and turnovers but also didnt give up many points would be better. If yardage counts against me, then I suspect that a team with a ball control offense and a good pass defense will be more valuable over the course of 16 games.

But that doesn't begin to do this question justice,because there are so many more variables at play. Like the quality of your opponent each week, and especially the quarterback. Also the weather, which has been argued to death in position player threads (its hard to make plays in bad weather, but offensive players know where they're going and defenders don't, etc.). But it seems reasonable that some offenses, especially in some situations, would have more turnovers in bad weather. Or they might get more conservative.

In fact turnovers probably have a lot to do with game plan and game situation. I would bet that there are way more turnovers per opponent passing play than per opponent rushing play, not only because interceptions are more common than fumbles, but receivers and quarterbacks fumble, too. And im even more confident that sacks are more common on passing plays than rushing plays. Because duh.

But then there's also an even more subtle distinction between plays at the start of the game and at the end of the game. A team with a 14+ point fourth quarter lead probably has significantly fewer turnovers per play than their opponent in a 14+ point hole. I would also bet that their run/pass ratios are mirror images of one another, and that "desperation pass plays" are an especially good opportunity for sacks, turnovers and defensive tds.

So if you're looking to build a model, I would expect it to look like this:

Expected yardage

Number of regular passes times yards per regular pass

Plus

number of rushes times yards per rush

Plus

number of desperation passes times yards per desperation pass

Plus

Turnovers

Expected yardage

Number of regular passes times turnovers per regular pass

Plus

number of rushes times turnovers per rush

Plus

number of desperation passes times turnovers per desperation pass

Plus

Sacks and defensive tds and anything else your scoring system cares about.

And for a given game, you can predict those numbers a little better based on the qbs playing, the weather, etc. There are a lot of variables that would be helpful, but I would prefer not to use past game stats or vegas odds in this because I think you get into a bit of a feedback loop where vegas thinks the rookie qb is going to get killed so you predict more desperation plays so you predict they get killed by an even bigger margin, when in fact the head coach decides to run the ball 50 times and protect his young qb's ego.

In fact, i think that the per play numbers might be better predicted by starting with the offense, and then applying a factor based on the defense. so for example, when tom brady faces cinci in the rain with all of his receivers injured, arrested, or on other teams, his projected yards per play are low, but his projected turnovers per play are also low because he doesn't throw a lot of picks, but when cinci faces matt stafford in bad weather, the projected yards per play might be much higher but cinci's defense has more opportunity to make plays.

Some of these factors are predictable before the start of the season on aggregate - e.g. minnesota, oakland, houston, cleveland and jacksonville are likely to start a bad veteran or a rookie, so afc south defenses in indy and tenn probably get a bump. But things like defensive injuries, injuries to opponents, guys who unexpectedly emerge... its a lot of variables. I don't think its totally unpredictable, but I think you have to consider a lot more than most people do if you want to have any chance of success.

 

[DawnBTVS]

The difference in drives between two teams in their game (or vs opponents on a season) is going to come down to who had the ball at the end of the half and end of the game, or who ran a turnover back for a touchdown which resulted in the opponent getting back to back drives. I wouldn't look that to that as a measure of ball possession. You could have 11 or 12 drives to my 10 because you ended both halves with the ball, but if I had more plays, yards, and time of possession, I'd have won the ball control game.

For these purposes, I'd probably look at things like number of drives, yards, plays, TOP, compared to the league average or to other teams you're talking about, rather than comparing the same team's offensive and defensive stats. Things like teams who run hurry up offenses like the Broncos and Patriots are also going to play a role in total numbers, if not in the per drive numbers.

Fair enough

Average: 186 Drives, 30.21 Yards per Drive, 1.86 Points per Drive, 5.72 Plays per Drive, 2:35 TOP

Offense

Carolina: 162 Drives, 31.59 YPD, 2.09 PPD, 6.25 Plays per Drive, 3:07 TOP

Seattle: 179 Drives, 29.93 YPD, 2.16 PPD, 5.61 Plays per Drive, 2:43 TOP

San Francisco: 181 Drives, 28.46 YPD, 2.04 PPD, 5.45 Plays per Drive, 2:40 TOP

Philadelphia: 195 Drives, 33.81 YPD, 2.18 PPD, 5.50 Plays per Drive, 2:09 TOP

Denver: 192 Drives, 38.22 YPD, 2.98 PPD, 6.07 Plays per Drive, 2:30 TOP

New England: 191 Drives, 33.70 YPD, 2.21 PPD, 6.09 Plays per Drive, 2:30 TOP

Defense

Carolina: 172 Drives, 27.58 YPD, 1.38 PAPD, 5.81 Plays per Drive, 2:35 TOP

Seattle: 179 Drives, 26.14 YPD, 1.22 PAPD, 5.64 Plays per Drive, 2:43 TOP (Ranked 25th in Opponent TOP)

San Francisco: 186 Drives, 26.69 YPD, 1.45 PAPD, 5.58 Plays per Drive, 2:31 TOP

Philadelphia: 190 Drives, 32.51 YPD, 1.79 PAPD, 6.17 Plays per Drive, 2:49 TOP

Denver: 200 Drives, 29.13 YPD, 1.88 PAPD, 5.47 Plays per Drive, 2:25 TOP

New England: 191 Drives, 31.08 YPD, 1.66 PAPD, 5.97 Plays per Drive, 2:36 TOP

For comparison's sake of 6 teams (3 with predominant Run Based, Run Control Teams vs. Hurry Up Offensive Teams)

Run Control: Would roughly allow 296 YPG and 15 PAPG to 310 YPG and 17 PAPG.

Hurry Up O: Would roughly allow 364 YPG and 24 PAPG to 371 YPG and 20 PAPG.

At the end of the day though, it's really random. Jacksonville (4-12) were 26th and 25th in YAPD and PAPD while Atlanta (4-12) were 29th and 32nd respectively.

The New York Giants went 7-9 and finished 7th and 9th but were mediocre in takeaways (14th). Kansas City allowed the 2nd most drives, 201, but finished 12th and 5th. The Steelers were 13th and 21st.

Kansas City Chiefs: 201 Drives - 28.65 YAPD - 1.51 PAPD = 360 Yards and 20 Points (Chiefs went 11-5)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 183 Drives - 28.84 YAPD - 1.95 PAPD = 330 Yards and 22 Points (Steelers went 8-8)

New Orleans Saints: 177 Drives - 27.68 YAPD - 1.63 PAPD = 306 Yards and 18 Points (Saints went 11-5)

What would've hurt the Steelers D fantasy wise would be the takeaway differential. I don't know if you can really glean anything in terms of offensive play style when trying to predict which Team Defenses will be relevant unless they're a top tier team in general.

 

[bostonfred]

Bump for david