How much does an individual player matter in H-2-H leagues? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

I was lamenting the fact that I had to drop Odell Beckham early in the season (short rosters, other guys hurt, needed a healthy body). I ended up just missing out on a playoff spot, and the league champion was the one that claimed him after I dropped him.

I finally went to revisit "what could have been" and while I obviously would have scored more points on the season, I recalculated my weekly scoring and would have had the same exact record on the year. Weeks I lost by 40 I would have lost by 20. Weeks I won by 20 I would have won by 35.

In my post season eulogy and analysis, it dawned on me that a lot of weeks there nothing could have avoided a lost short of having 2-3 guys with huge weeks.

Which lead me back to my initial question. How much does a single player matter to a fantasy roster from week to week?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Each ppg is worth about a 1.2% chance of winning a H2H contest. That was true across a bunch of different ppr leagues I'm in.

So if a guy like OBJr is something like +10ppg over your current last starter that's an additional 12% chance of a win each week. Or 1.5 wins in a 13 game season. So a huge stud can make a big difference -- 8 wins vs 6.5 for an otherwise dead average team.

 

[DropKick]

With ODB this season, I would think it significant because he was having such big weeks. Also, surprised your games were routinely blow-outs. Maybe scoring variance could be analyzed...

Even 1-2 wins can be the difference between missing that last play-off spot or getting a bye week. And you can't discount ODB's value during these past fantasy play-offs.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

 

[BassNBrew]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Thanks for sharing this. It kind of surprised me. 0-1 wins greater than 50% of the time.

Along the same lines, would he have a greater impact on a consistent fantasy team? I trotted out Wilson/Lynch/Baldwin/Haushika/Seattle D weekly in one league and produces amazing consistent scores.

 

[Steelers4Life]

It's something I looked into a few years ago, and the reality was that making those "win-now" trades where you sacrifice the future to get one specific player for the playoff run rarely has any impact. Why? Because that one player would have to outscore who you would've started by enough points in that specific week to make the difference between a win and a loss, and there are way too many variables on your roster and your opponents' roster to be able to predict that.

I stopped making "win-now" trades and moves like that a few years ago for that reason. Keep the youth, keep the potential, and it's very rare that you'll regret it.

Only time I even consider it is before the season or very early on in a league I expect to be competing for the points scored title (if that matters). Adding 4-5 points per week all year can make an impact, but expecting it to in one specific week probably won't.

 

[DropKick]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Still, the expected value exceeds 1.5 wins - that is a difference maker.

 

[Anarchy99]

I remember one (very atypical) year where I could have taken a zero at QB in every game and still won the same number of games, but that was from being stacked everywhere else. Like anything else, I am sure there will be examples that run the spectrum both ways.

 

[FUBAR]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Interesting but does this work across various formats? In one of my 32 team leagues OBJ basically got me to the super bowl. One player probably has a greater impact on standard leagues and less so with larger lineups or idp.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Still, the expected value exceeds 1.5 wins - that is a difference maker.

Oh, totally agree -- getting a guy like that is huge.

Also agree with the "win now" plays rarely working out in the short-run.

 

[Deamon]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Thanks for sharing this. It kind of surprised me. 0-1 wins greater than 50% of the time.

Along the same lines, would he have a greater impact on a consistent fantasy team? I trotted out Wilson/Lynch/Baldwin/Haushika/Seattle D weekly in one league and produces amazing consistent scores.

But that 1 win could get you in playoffs. And in playoffs, with his performances, I'm assuming he won a ton of people leagues too. That average 1.5 extra win is massive, and even bigger with playoff success.

 

[Anarchy99]

In my particular league, teams averaged 100 ppg. Beck ham had pretty much an 8 point per game advantage over a replacement WR (WR36). Only counting the fantasy regular season, the difference dropped to about 4 ppg. So in my league at least, the difference was a lot less than the numbers posted here for percentage impact.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I traded for Arian Foster in the summer. Won the Championship.

Won week 5 by a slim margin with his big week. Without him I lose that week and go from #2 seed to #3, have no BYE, then lose in week 14.

 

[BassNBrew]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Interesting but does this work across various formats? In one of my 32 team leagues OBJ basically got me to the super bowl.One player probably has a greater impact on standard leagues and less so with larger lineups or idp.

Fewer teams, less impact. More starters, less impact.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I looked at 12 and 14 team PPR leagues -- with 72-98 RB/WR/TE starters. IIRC I divided the data up a few different ways and it was super consistent at 1.2% per point.

 

[BassNBrew]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Thanks for sharing this. It kind of surprised me. 0-1 wins greater than 50% of the time.

Along the same lines, would he have a greater impact on a consistent fantasy team? I trotted out Wilson/Lynch/Baldwin/Haushika/Seattle D weekly in one league and produces amazing consistent scores.

But that 1 win could get you in playoffs. And in playoffs, with his performances, I'm assuming he won a ton of people leagues too. That average 1.5 extra win is massive, and even bigger with playoff success.

That really wasn't the point. I would have thought a stud like that would be worth 2+ wins> 50% of the time.

 

[Dez]

Someone dropped Beckham in my league and I picked him up in week 5 and while I can't tell you how much he is worth in H2H wins I can tell you he was worth $200,000 to me.

 

[DropKick]

Played with this for another minute... if ODBJr gives you +10ppg he's giving you a +12% chance to win a H2H game, on average. And in a 13-game regular season, you could expect his impact to be worth...

+0 wins 19% of the time

+1 wins 34% of the time

+2 wins 27% of the time

+3 wins 14% of the time

+4 wins 5% of the time

5+ wins 1% of the time

In other words, if you had him in 100 leagues he'd make no difference in 19 of them, but in one he'd get you 5+ wins. Etc.

Thanks for sharing this. It kind of surprised me. 0-1 wins greater than 50% of the time.

Along the same lines, would he have a greater impact on a consistent fantasy team? I trotted out Wilson/Lynch/Baldwin/Haushika/Seattle D weekly in one league and produces amazing consistent scores.

But that 1 win could get you in playoffs. And in playoffs, with his performances, I'm assuming he won a ton of people leagues too. That average 1.5 extra win is massive, and even bigger with playoff success.

That really wasn't the point. I would have thought a stud like that would be worth 2+ wins> 50% of the time.

Could approach that depending on scoring system, line-up requirements, etc. One player is still around 1/9 of your team? Lots of weekly fluctuations too... does your kicker hit 4 FGS or 4 XPs? Just depends on the number of close games. I think 1-2 wins is significant in a 13 week season.

 

[Adam Harstad]

In one of my articles this season, I went through a couple of my leagues and looked at, if you added Jamaal Charles to the losing team (in addition to all of the losing team's regular players), how often would that swing the matchup. And even though the losing team was basically playing 9-on-8 and adding the best player in all of fantasy football, it only changed the outcome in fewer than 50% of the matchups. In one of my leagues last year, there were only seven games all season long where the two teams were within 10 points of each other. I think people tend to underestimate just how many games are close enough for one decision here or there to wind up swinging them. While season-ending totals tend to be pretty close, individual week-to-week games are usually blowouts.

 

[Zdravko]

That was an excellent article and further supported by the OPs analysis.

I'd add that it's important to recognize the reason why adding Charles or OBJ has such a minimal impact: H2H leagues are to a large extent a crap shoot. Having an extra great player will help your odds a bit on any given week, but tends to dwindle in comparison to all the other random luck factors you face weekly.

The only even semi-viable way to measure FF skill is total points. That probably explains why so many owners are so attached to H2H