How much of Fantasy Football is Luck? (1 Viewer)

[KCitons]

OK, this topic was discussed last year in a 10 team, keeper league. At the time, I was one of the lowest scoring teams, yet was in second place. It has been brought up again this year, since a similar thing is happening.

The argument is, if all owners are of the same skill level, and draft a competitive team that once the season starts, how much does Luck play a part. Since our league has to announce its keepers before the NFL draft, we have no way to account for rookies jumping into the mix and taking touches away. (J Best, CJ Spiller, etc) Also since we draft our teams usually before the 3rd preseason game, it can be a crap shoot determining NFL rosters. You also have injuries, suspensions, overall head cases (remember T.O. being sent home by the Eagles), players in coaches dog houses (Jerome Harrison), and overall questionable coaching decisions (J Charles - T Haley earlier this season)

So, what percentage do you think Luck plays?

 

[CaptainHook]

this is kind of a bad question because it depends on how competent the rest of your league is. if everyone in the league is totally competent its 100% luck. you can only be as good as your opponents are bad.

 

[Road Warriors]

Assuming decent owners, luck plays a significant role in FF. Injuries are the biggest factor in luck, and it doesn't have to be to the player you've drafted, either. O-Line injuries can hurt all offensive skill players on a team. A marginal QB (eg. Matt Moore) goes down and the backup sux, WR scoring goes down.

However, astute owners handle it by being more forward looking on the waiver wire and through trades. Its a mix of skill, prognostication and luck. But luck has a big role.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

It depends on the league more than anything.

H-T-H is much more luck than total points.

Starting more players decreases luck as it's harder to find that good 2nd, QB 3rd RB or 3rd WR.

 

[ceo3west]

I find that the guys that say luck plays a huge part are the guys that are taking i.e. Greg Olsen instead of Aaron Hernandez in the later rounds. The guys that win consistently draft depth to cover up for inevitable busts & injuries.

And usually a person's opinion of luck in FF is disproportionate to his track record.

 

[Pittsburgh P]

In the long term, nearly 100% skill.

In the short term, nearly 100% luck.

 

[KCitons]

Sorry, I forgot to include that its Head to Head. Thats how this discussion got started. I was getting lucky last year winning games against teams that were scoring the lowest points of the week. If I had played any of the other 8 teams that week, I would have lost.

 

[Go Blue]

this is kind of a bad question because it depends on how competent the rest of your league is. if everyone in the league is totally competent its 100% luck. you can only be as good as your opponents are bad.

I completely disagree here. Anyone that's ever played fantasy knows that luck plays a factor each and every week, but to say 100% is just crazy talk. Even when your playing with sharks, you have to know when to draft a certain player. Was it lucky to get Hakeem Nicks, Santana Moss, and Mike Williams (T.B.) after round 5 in your draft? I know one owner that drafted Rivers before Brady because he said S.D. was going to pass more this year. That wasn't luck, that was genius. How does luck even come into play when doing your waiver moves in season? There might be some guesswork, but that is mostly fantasy insight. Is it just lucky to set your correct starters each week? No, your judgement is what sets your lineup. I completely agree that luck is a big part of fantasy. Especially in 10 team or smaller leagues. But to say 100%, nah.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

kinda like poker.

Bad players think it's all luck.

It's gambling and there is always a luck factor. ANy chump can win any H2H game or even have a lucky title. But the best of the best win consistently across all leagues/ formats over time.

 

[KCitons]

My argument is that approx 60% is luck. But thats 60% post draft. Once the season starts, you only have trades, WW, and Lineups that can be attributed to skill.

 

[Wrigley]

90%

it's the other 10% that makes the difference

 

[eurotrashman]

45 to 65% depending on the situation. I've run the numbers a few times.

 

[CaptainHook]

this is kind of a bad question because it depends on how competent the rest of your league is. if everyone in the league is totally competent its 100% luck. you can only be as good as your opponents are bad.

I completely disagree here. Anyone that's ever played fantasy knows that luck plays a factor each and every week, but to say 100% is just crazy talk. Even when your playing with sharks, you have to know when to draft a certain player. Was it lucky to get Hakeem Nicks, Santana Moss, and Mike Williams (T.B.) after round 5 in your draft? I know one owner that drafted Rivers before Brady because he said S.D. was going to pass more this year. That wasn't luck, that was genius. How does luck even come into play when doing your waiver moves in season? There might be some guesswork, but that is mostly fantasy insight. Is it just lucky to set your correct starters each week? No, your judgement is what sets your lineup. I completely agree that luck is a big part of fantasy. Especially in 10 team or smaller leagues. But to say 100%, nah.

so i guess he knew san diego would be trailing in every game against a bunch of teams that were 10 point underdogs?i mean, totally competent obviously assumes everyone making proper predictions. but him happening to be right that SD is throwing more doesn't mean he had any real insight there.anyway all im trying to say is that the main variable of how much "skill" is involved in any given league is almost entirely how unskilled your competition is.

 

[packersfan]

kinda like poker.Bad players think it's all luck.It's gambling and there is always a luck factor. ANy chump can win any H2H game or even have a lucky title. But the best of the best win consistently across all leagues/ formats over time.

I agree with this to an extent. I think if you consistently cash in your league(s) that's the sign of skill. However, I think each individual season is at least 95% luck. I think your skill puts you in a position to succeed but luck is what typically puts a team over the top. Let's say you have Miles Austin, Hakeem Nicks and Maurice Jones-Drew on your team. Those are three very good players agreed? How'd they do this week? You could have started those three players and gotten whipped by a team that started Deion Branch, Mike Williams of Seattle and Danny Woodhead. That's where the luck factor comes into play. Or you have Chris Cooley this week and you're playing the Ryan Torain owner. Cooley catches a pass and gets stopped at the 1. That enables Torain to come in and score a short touchdown. Does the Torain owner have more skill? I don't think so. I think he happened to have a lot more luck than the Cooley owner. You can draft top players, make astute trades and/or Waiver Wire pickups but you're still at the mercy of what happens on the field and as we all know a lot of crazy stuff happens in this game.

 

[Mello]

Depends on the league structure. I play in mostly HTH redraft leagues with playoffs. Getting top during the regular season, about 20-30% luck. Might have a run of close loses where your opponent performs above expectation, but usually you'll end up around where your total points warrant. Winning the playoffs, 70-80% luck. Often, what looks like a good playoff matchup at draft time doesn't end up being. You can trade for or claim players that will have good playoff matchups, so it's not complete luck. Just takes one or two average players having a freak good game to knock you out.

 

[Bandit]

A few years ago, I had the top scoring team in my 12 team (6 to the playoffs) head-to-head league, and didn't even make the playoffs. I just chalked it up to bad luck, but then it happened again last season. Having the top scoring team and not even making the playoffs TWICE in less than 10 years...I'm not exactly sure how to put a number on it, but I'll say 90% luck.

Somebody might point out, and I agree, that a high scoring team can have a couple huge weeks and not really be that good most of the season. However, last year I was also #1 in all-play record.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm not sure how to assign a percentage value, but luck is an enormous part of the equation, even for people as fanatical, experienced and thoughtful as the good folks around these parts.

 

[heidbrink]

There is more luck than winners want to admit.

There is more skill than losers want to admit.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." -Louis Pasteur

 

[CalBear]

OK, this topic was discussed last year in a 10 team, keeper league. At the time, I was one of the lowest scoring teams, yet was in second place. It has been brought up again this year, since a similar thing is happening. The argument is, if all owners are of the same skill level, and draft a competitive team that once the season starts, how much does Luck play a part. Since our league has to announce its keepers before the NFL draft, we have no way to account for rookies jumping into the mix and taking touches away. (J Best, CJ Spiller, etc) Also since we draft our teams usually before the 3rd preseason game, it can be a crap shoot determining NFL rosters. You also have injuries, suspensions, overall head cases (remember T.O. being sent home by the Eagles), players in coaches dog houses (Jerome Harrison), and overall questionable coaching decisions (J Charles - T Haley earlier this season) So, what percentage do you think Luck plays?

The question is meaningless. If everyone is of the same skill level, skill doesn't play any role. QED. The reality is that everyone is not of the same skill level, which is why not all the teams are equal when they're drafted, which is why luck is a relatively small factor in long-term success.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I'd say luck is less of a factor during the regular season.

Good owners will consistently field good teams and will make the playoffs more often than not.

If you're smart and stay alert you can kind of "make your own luck".

However, once you're in the playoffs, winning is ALL ABOUT luck.

 

[KCitons]

OK, this topic was discussed last year in a 10 team, keeper league. At the time, I was one of the lowest scoring teams, yet was in second place. It has been brought up again this year, since a similar thing is happening. The argument is, if all owners are of the same skill level, and draft a competitive team that once the season starts, how much does Luck play a part. Since our league has to announce its keepers before the NFL draft, we have no way to account for rookies jumping into the mix and taking touches away. (J Best, CJ Spiller, etc) Also since we draft our teams usually before the 3rd preseason game, it can be a crap shoot determining NFL rosters. You also have injuries, suspensions, overall head cases (remember T.O. being sent home by the Eagles), players in coaches dog houses (Jerome Harrison), and overall questionable coaching decisions (J Charles - T Haley earlier this season) So, what percentage do you think Luck plays?

The question is meaningless. If everyone is of the same skill level, skill doesn't play any role. QED. The reality is that everyone is not of the same skill level, which is why not all the teams are equal when they're drafted, which is why luck is a relatively small factor in long-term success.

OK, then people shouldn't brag that they are smarter, they should brag that everyone is just dumber. Kinda like being the smartest kid on the short bus.

 

[CalBear]

OK, then people shouldn't brag that they are smarter, they should brag that everyone is just dumber. Kinda like being the smartest kid on the short bus.

My league has some smart owners. If yours doesn't, perhaps you should find some better competition.

 

[AngryGorilla]

45 to 65% depending on the situation. I've run the numbers a few times.

I agree with this. So many variables. In HTH leagues, def more luck. Up to the minute info, working the WW, consolidating talent via trades, etc.... examples of things to counter luck. Also, I agree with that the longer someone is good at FF, obviously they know their stuff. As opposed to the guy who won the redraft league last year because he was a Saints or Colts homer....

 

[solorca]

For me, I think that skill plays a huge part into a competitive league where most people are knowledgeable. The person who does their research and makes good predictions will have success.

On the other hand, in leagues where there is not that much overall skill, luck plays a HUGE part. I have competed extremely well over the years in competitive stacks with highly knowlegeable players, but in my friends league, I consistently end up drafting the best team based on expectations, but finish poorly. I'm getting tired of seeing that I'm a "virtual lock to make the playoffs" in that league, because it's never true!

 

[eoMMan]

In a head to head league, butt loads.

My brother won total points one year and didn't even make the playoffs! It just happens sometimes.

 

[Shutout]

I don't know the percentage but luck is more of a part of it than I would like.

Yes, I play in leagues with teams where some guys drafted phenomenally, made awesome trades, made great waiver wire additions.

But I also play in those same leagues where a team that had Derrick Ward as their only RB picked up Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain in the off season just because its all that was out there and now they lead the league in wins as a result of situaitonal games (I feel confident in saying these pick ups weren't shark moves because all three of those guys were offered repeatedly in trades and Torain was dropped once for a WR before being picked back up...that's not skillful assessment, that's tossing spaghetti on a wall and getting lucky that some stuck).

I also played in a league where an owner went undefeated last year crushing everyone but in the playoffs lost all his Colts and had a mediocre game and lost by 3 points.

So, I think in the long-term, its obvious to see who is skillful in your league (a guy doesn't go undefeated and kill people every week on luck) and who is lucky (do any of us think Hillis or Ward are long term players? Will they be winning FF games for their owner a year from now?).

But, with all that being said, I sure would like to have the right blend of good luck at the right time this year

 

[cvnpoka]

more luck than in poker and not really close.

 

[Mile High]

Lots of luck in head to head leagues. In my main league the first place team is 5-1 and has scored 413 points and has 317 points scored against it. The last place team is 1-5 has scored 459 but has 525 points scored against it. Seems like a lot of luck for the first place team and no luck for the last place one.

 

[DoubleG]

I'd say luck is less of a factor during the regular season.

Good owners will consistently field good teams and will make the playoffs more often than not.

If you're smart and stay alert you can kind of "make your own luck".

However, once you're in the playoffs, winning is ALL ABOUT luck.

As well as the quote by heidbrink:

There is more luck than winners want to admit.

There is more skill than losers want to admit.

Herein lies the issue:

Ironically, the better the competition (i.e. the more even) - the more the luck end of the equation is magnified...no matter what % you assign to each. Even if you say it's 80% skill and only 20% luck, if the skill level of the competetion is all within 10% of each other (say 70-80%, 80% being the top, 70% being the least skilled), then in that league, luck still plays twice as much a roll as skill. (20% variation vs. 10% variation in skill). Keep in mind, all of those numbers are completely arbitrary, but I think the point is clear - in competetive (or "evenly skilled") leagues, luck plays a huge factor.

As an aside, "skill" is also a function of knowledge, which largely is becoming more and more accesable via the internet. Meaning that "skill advantage" is harder and harder to create, as knowledge is more readily available than it used to be. Many FF "experts" have their rankings, thoughts, insights, available for free. Some websites even function on the sole premise of "averaging" expert/website rankings - making it easy to see what the majority of experts are thinking and bring them all together in one spot.

Once you add componenets like head-to-head play (which adds to the "luck" factor - just ask any owner who had had the 2nd highest scoring team of the week and lost to the highest scorer), trade deadlines (thereby limiting playoff injury protection) and single elimination playoffs, and most playoffs are a luck-fest to an extent. Which is why I love bye weeks for division winners (1st round "upsets" in FF are all too common) - at least it gives some credence to the regular season, which I do agree is a stronger indicator of team/owner ability. I also like systems that award overall points prizes for the same reason.

 

[Romofan]

I think it's a lot like poker. A good ff owner makes it to the playoffs more years than not, just like making the final table. But in any one year it's luck that plays a large role. There's luck of the schedule (playing against the CJ2K or AD owner during their bye week, or playing against a good team when they have tough matchups etc.), injuries, and just the unpredictability of the game.

Some years it evens out and some years it doesn't. The highest scoring team in my league last year didn't make the playoffs. This year in my league that team is mine. Highest scoring team and highest points against for me. Just look at your league scoreboard each week. A team winning 75-68 is a lucky win when another team loses 125-118 in the very same week.

 

[One]

50-75%

I rarely see the best team win it all.

 

[GregR_2]

this is kind of a bad question because it depends on how competent the rest of your league is. if everyone in the league is totally competent its 100% luck. you can only be as good as your opponents are bad.

...The question is meaningless. If everyone is of the same skill level, skill doesn't play any role. QED. The reality is that everyone is not of the same skill level, which is why not all the teams are equal when they're drafted, which is why luck is a relatively small factor in long-term success.

These cut right to the heart of the matter and are why I hate these threads on luck versus skill. No one can give any kind of meaningful answer unless it is given what the difference in skill level is between all of the owners. In this case particular case where that was done to extreme, the answer is obviously simple... if everyone is equal skill then skill plays no role and it's all luck.Put most anyone from this board in a league with 11 people with absolutely no skill (no experience with FF, no access to others advice or rankings, only access to stats, NFL news and injury reports, and league rules) and the FBG will probably have highest points 95 times out of 100 and best record 90 times out of 100. Make a league where you control all 12 teams and manage them independently in their own best interest, and draft position is randomized or removed via an auction... and where each of those teams finish would essentially be random.That's the only way you're going to get a true measure of how much is luck or skill.

 

[footballnerd]

Def involves luck on any given year, but your track record will show if you got skills.

If you make it deep into the playoffs/win championships year in and year out then its more skill than luck

If you sniffed the playoffs every couple of years its more luck than skill

 

[KCitons]

I know its not exactly the same. But, when I look at NFL teams records through the first 6 weeks, its hard to understand. 7 weeks ago, nearly everyone would have had the 49ers, Cowboys, Packers or Vikings, and Chargers to be leading their divisions. Very few thought the Chiefs, Bears, Rams, Seahawks would have the records that they do. Granted there is a lot of season left. If there is one thing I have learned being a fan of the NFL is that nothing is guaranteed.

 

[Insein]

Definitely more than half is luck. This year is the perfect example for me.

I have the 3rd most points in my league yet I'm 0-6. The league average for pts per week is 134.5. The lowest anyone has scored against me is 149. Ive finished with the 2nd highest score 3 weeks out of 6. My points against is 158 points higher than the next closest guy. Eventually it should even out and I'll win some games but to have that kind of schedule stacked up against me is completely out of my control.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Luck surely plays a part in fantasy football, but I don't think it's nearly as much as most folks do. I voted less than 25%. I work hard to be the most knowledgeable participant in my leagues. I figure luck plays a big part for folks who don't do their homework and just go with the flow. For those of us who spend a lot of time learning about everything from head coaches tendencies to NFL roster depth charts to target numbers, luck doesn't play as much a part. It does play a part somewhat, but not nearly as much as for someone who doesn't prepare themselves for a season of FF.

 

[Ghost Rider]

There is more luck than winners want to admit.There is more skill than losers want to admit."Luck favors the prepared mind." -Louis Pasteur

The way I see it, if you are an owner whose team is almost always good, meaning you are always in contention, regardless of whether or not you win leagues, you know what you are doing, luck aside. Flip that around for owners whose teams are almost never in contention. Same logic applies, but the other way.

 

[HoTnickZ]

It depends if you're 5-1 or 1-5.

 

[cvnpoka]

Put most anyone from this board in a league with 11 people with absolutely no skill (no experience with FF, no access to others advice or rankings, only access to stats, NFL news and injury reports, and league rules) and the FBG will probably have highest points 95 times out of 100 and best record 90 times out of 100.

no way

 

[sartre]

Make a league where you control all 12 teams and manage them independently in their own best interest, and draft position is randomized or removed via an auction... and where each of those teams finish would essentially be random.That's the only way you're going to get a true measure of how much is luck or skill.

This is a great hypothetical. To those that think luck is minimal, they should expect all twelve teams to finish the season at or near .500However, those of us that recognize the large role of luck would not be suprised to find some teams finish 3-10 or 10-3.Unfortunately it is doubtful that anyone would go through all this trouble to make a point.

 

[The Dude]

It varies

100% luck when I lose

100% skill when I win

 

[savemejee]

Fantasy playoffs = luck

Getting to the playoffs = skill

 

[Banger]

in redraft there's more luck involved than dynasty.

 

[mdlane]

When I was studying for a test, one of the instructors said:

"Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity"

In a 6/12 playoff, Fantasy Football is 70% Preparation and 30% Opportunity IMO. It's possible to keep getting slammed in HTH format over and over, but as long as you keep preparing every week, it's unlikely (though still possible) that will keep you out of the playoffs. In a 4/12 playoff format, it probably jumps to 50/50, at least.

Fantasy Baseball feels like 90%/10% - and the 10% is all in the single-elimination playoffs. I mean, a huge part of fantasy baseball is setting your lineup every day - just doing that puts you over people in most leagues that don't have that kind of free time to devote. There are also so many players to choose from over the season that you're bound to find a few diamonds in the rough and trading is a regular occurrence.

Fantasy football is different because there are fewer skill position players and drastically-shorter seasons/games. So trading is much more a rarity, there are fewer diamonds in the rough to jump on, and one player's big week has more potential for a league-wide impact. Because you have less to work with, Preparation-wise, Opportunity plays a bigger role.

 

[CalBear]

Make a league where you control all 12 teams and manage them independently in their own best interest, and draft position is randomized or removed via an auction... and where each of those teams finish would essentially be random.That's the only way you're going to get a true measure of how much is luck or skill.

This is a great hypothetical. To those that think luck is minimal, they should expect all twelve teams to finish the season at or near .500However, those of us that recognize the large role of luck would not be suprised to find some teams finish 3-10 or 10-3.Unfortunately it is doubtful that anyone would go through all this trouble to make a point.

Luck is minimal in a real fantasy football league. In this hypothetical league, you've removed the skill and turned it all into coin flips. In a coin flipping contest among 12 teams, the results will look like a bell curve.Fantasy football results look like a bell curve, too, except the skilled players are a lot more likely to end up on the good side of the curve than the less skilled players, or than a robot which randomly selected players during the draft.

 

[paulbertini]

I dont believe it is much luck at all. I have won the championship two years in a row in a competitive 12 man re draft league, and am a combined 21-3 in four leagues this year. Its about doing pre draft research and staying up on the inseason news and active on the waiver wire always looking to improve even if youre undefeated

 

[footballnerd]

Fantasy playoffs = luckGetting to the playoffs = skill

I change my answer to this as well.

 

[montman]

Those of us doing research and looking at stats closely would like to think/hope there is a large component of skill.

Similar thing in one of my leagues so far, the second place 5-1 team is next to last in pts. It might somewhat correct itself as the season progesses.

 

[GregR_2]

Put most anyone from this board in a league with 11 people with absolutely no skill (no experience with FF, no access to others advice or rankings, only access to stats, NFL news and injury reports, and league rules) and the FBG will probably have highest points 95 times out of 100 and best record 90 times out of 100.

no way

You don't think you could vastly outperform people who most likely: * have no understanding of value based on league setup * and so draft QBs first because they score the most points * don't understand the volatility of RBs * don't understand how to maximize a flex position * don't understand which positions like kicker are a crap shoot, or that TEs after the top few are a crap shoot * base most of their early decisions off of last year's results because they don't have enough knowledge and perspective to successfully account for offseason changes. * have no opinions about rookies to base decisions on besides draft position. * haven't ever considered the concept of handcuffing. * don't have any concept of which players are good sleeper candidates * make their in season decisions based off of what the player has done so far this year... likely dropping good players who just had a slow start for players who had a few lucky fluke gamesThose are the things that unskilled owners do. Many things we take as common sense, a person with absolutely no skill wouldn't think of until he'd gained some experience and started to figure things out (i.e. gained skill).Today the neophyte FF owner is better than they were in the past because of the number of internet sites like FBG where you can use someone else's skill to run your team while you're learning the ropes. But I'm not talking about 11 owners who get to use FBGs. I'm talking about 11 people with no personal football or FF knowledge at all, and who get no access to anyone else's opinion to sponge off of. That's what we need to do if we want to see how much our skill differentiates us from the non-skilled.

 

[dennis.moore]

100% luck