How much will it cost (1 Viewer)

[BoltBacker]

The Rodgers situation is apples and oranges. The Packers were in the NFC Championship Game the year before Rodgers started. The Colts might be 0-16. Way too many holes on the Colts to not trade Manning for a bounty, if they can.

I was going to post the same thing, but for a different reason. Rogers was drafted at the bottom half of the first, Luck is going to be the #1 pick. There's a big difference carrying a clip board for multiple seasons when that is the situation.The only parallel that can be drawn between Rodgers/Luck is the franchise ultimately has to go in the direction of its best long term interest even if that means alienating the face of the franchise. If Indy drafts Luck they are pretty much burning bridges with Manning. No NFL player, certainly not a Manning/Favre type, see the end of the road coming. If you asked Manning today I'm sure he'd tell you he has five years left. I can't see Manning wanting to stay with the team if they draft Luck. From Manning's perspective I'm sure he thinks this season just proves how bad a team he's been carrying all these years and using that pick on anything other than shoring up a bunch of deficient positions for a playoff run under his leadership would be a slap in the face.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

The Rodgers situation is apples and oranges. The Packers were in the NFC Championship Game the year before Rodgers started. The Colts might be 0-16. Way too many holes on the Colts to not trade Manning for a bounty, if they can.

I was going to post the same thing, but for a different reason. Rogers was drafted at the bottom half of the first, Luck is going to be the #1 pick. There's a big difference carrying a clip board for multiple seasons when that is the situation.The only parallel that can be drawn between Rodgers/Luck is the franchise ultimately has to go in the direction of its best long term interest even if that means alienating the face of the franchise. If Indy drafts Luck they are pretty much burning bridges with Manning. No NFL player, certainly not a Manning/Favre type, see the end of the road coming. If you asked Manning today I'm sure he'd tell you he has five years left. I can't see Manning wanting to stay with the team if they draft Luck. From Manning's perspective I'm sure he thinks this season just proves how bad a team he's been carrying all these years and using that pick on anything other than shoring up a bunch of deficient positions for a playoff run under his leadership would be a slap in the face.

I bolded the above to address that all premier athletes think they can play till their 40. Manning is 35. The neck surgery and rehab is perhaps a career ender, and that will make this discussion moot. But it is a game changer as well. He can no longer see a 5 year window regardless if he wakes up one day and "feels good". The kind of shots he would take on the field can subject him to paralysis on any given play. If Manning can come back now, he's looking at a couple of years at best, if that. His ego will tell him he's still the man, but his time away from the game and his physical condition will say otherwise. He seems passionate about his legacy with the Colts and he knows that his name is forever connected. Why not mentor the future of the franchise that made him a star? He could be a player/coach.

As to the argument that the Colts have so many holes to fill. I'll argue that if Peyton Manning was the starting QB of this winless team, they'd still be jockeying for the AFC South as we speak. The Colts aren't that bad. They just overrelied on one person and it has cost them dearly. Manning alone is worth 10 wins at least in the above scenario.

 

[The_Man]

Ravens would never make a deal for Manning. For one thing, they went this route already once with Elvis Grbac and had disastrous results. But also, it runs counter to their organizational philosophy. They build from within, and while they let good players go - Heap, Bart Scott, Kelly Gregg, Jamie Sharper - they don't let their cornerstone franchise players leave - Ogden, Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata. I expect them to lock up Flacco and Rice the same way.

Unfortunately, this probably means they will lose some more good players in the near future (like Yanda, Ben Grubbs, maybe Jarrett Johnson) but they figure they can replace them through the draft, and it's worth the price you pay to let those guys go if it allows you to keep your true blue chip players. That's another thing about the Ravens - because they genuinely believe that every first round pick they make will be a Pro Bowl player that they will have signed to an affordable contract for a good number of years, they won't give up one of those picks for another team's overpriced veteran.

Just a quick TO from this thread to note likely the first time in history that Payton Manning has been compared the Evlis Grbac.

No doubt, and yet Elvis's 2000 stats (4200 yards, 28 TDs-14 INTs, 89.9 rating) aren't that far from Manning's 2010 stats (4700, 33-17, 91.9).

 

[Sabertooth]

Jets are all show and no go. Revis is a great player. But their second best player is their center. While that is a ringing endorsement of Mangold, what does that say about all of the skill position players and defenders not named Revis?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Jets are all show and no go. Revis is a great player. But their second best player is their center. While that is a ringing endorsement of Mangold, what does that say about all of the skill position players and defenders not named Revis?

They're not as good as Mangold?

 

[massraider]

What are the odds that the Jets or Ravens would "plug in" even a healthy Manning and be immediately successful?I don't know how many times that scenario has worked but I'd be willing to guess it isn't many.

Assuming health (and who knows).The last time a QB of a similar caliber to Manning was traded is probably Montana to KC. They were pretty successful with him even though he was about a million.Bledsoe was probably the last time a probowl QB was immediately successful in his new team (Buffalo) but even probowl type QBs are rarely traded so there haven't been all that many misses since Bledsoe. Cutler had a miss 1st year. McNabb if you still consider him a pro bowl caliber guy has busted more than once. I'm sure I'm missing some.Forgot about Favre, pretty bad with the Jets but great with Minny his 1st year. Maybe he's Manning's caliber? I don't think so but closer than anyone but Montana that I remember being traded in the last 20 years.

Good list.I guess my point is, a quarterback move like this is more like an organ transplant than a new carburetor. Once you factor in the cost and whether the winning window for the team is opening or closing, it becomes a pretty risky operation...

So is getting any new QB. As to wondering how many times this scenario has worked: How many times has this scenario ever existed?

 

[habsfan]

What are the odds that the Jets or Ravens would "plug in" even a healthy Manning and be immediately successful?I don't know how many times that scenario has worked but I'd be willing to guess it isn't many.

Assuming health (and who knows).The last time a QB of a similar caliber to Manning was traded is probably Montana to KC. They were pretty successful with him even though he was about a million.Bledsoe was probably the last time a probowl QB was immediately successful in his new team (Buffalo) but even probowl type QBs are rarely traded so there haven't been all that many misses since Bledsoe. Cutler had a miss 1st year. McNabb if you still consider him a pro bowl caliber guy has busted more than once. I'm sure I'm missing some.Forgot about Favre, pretty bad with the Jets but great with Minny his 1st year. Maybe he's Manning's caliber? I don't think so but closer than anyone but Montana that I remember being traded in the last 20 years.

Good list.I guess my point is, a quarterback move like this is more like an organ transplant than a new carburetor. Once you factor in the cost and whether the winning window for the team is opening or closing, it becomes a pretty risky operation...

So is getting any new QB. As to wondering how many times this scenario has worked: How many times has this scenario ever existed?

Trying to plug a QB in as the last piece of a "win now", Superbowl calibre "puzzle" is not the same as "getting any new QB".Minny tried it and got close enough to consider the strategy a success (even if they fell short of the end goal). That said, the window closed and landing was harsh.

 

[massraider]

Trying to plug a QB in as the last piece of a "win now", Superbowl calibre "puzzle" is not the same as "getting any new QB".Minny tried it and got close enough to consider the strategy a success (even if they fell short of the end goal). That said, the window closed and landing was harsh.

And Favre's situation isn't the same as any Manning scenario. I think this scenario is unique enough to not bother looking for comparisons, let alone trying to spot a trend.

 

[identikit]

I don't think the Jets or the Ravens would go after him. Maybe one of the other teams that need a QB such as Miami, Washington, etc.....but the Jets or Ravens. Sanchez and Flacco have had their bad moments, but they aren't THAT bad.<---- Fantasy stud right here.

The Jets will never win a SB with Mark Sanchez unless they win it despite him.

Super Bowls are won often enough (for it to be quite plausible) with a mediocre QB at the reins.

 

[DangerMonkey]

But if the Colts get Luck, Manning becomes expendable.

How is this a foregone conclusion?Remember, the last time a QB prospect this good came along, it was P. Manning, except that there was HEAVY debate as to who the Colts should choose, MANNING or LEAF

 

[cstu]

But if the Colts get Luck, Manning becomes expendable.

How is this a foregone conclusion?Remember, the last time a QB prospect this good came along, it was P. Manning, except that there was HEAVY debate as to who the Colts should choose, MANNING or LEAF

Manning is old, has a neck problem that puts him one hit away from IR, and is set to earn a huge amount of money if the Colts keep him. Even with the risk that Luck turns out to be a bust the Colts need to move on.

 

[QuizGuy66]

The Jets and Ravens have championship teams except at quarterback. I wouldn't be shocked if either team put in a move to get Manning next year. Maybe the Redskins, 49ers, Lions, Bears and Vikings are in the running, too.

But if the Colts get Luck, Manning becomes expendable. I guess the three questions become:

1) What does Manning go for if he doesn't play a down this season?

2) What does Manning go for if he comes back in weeks 16 and 17 and plays well?

3) What does Manning go for it he comes back in weeks 16 and 17 and plays poorly?

4) Which team pursues Manning the most?

Obviously it's possible that the Colts keep Manning and draft Luck. But to me, that's stupid. If Luck is your franchise savior, is it really worth losing out on multiple high draft picks (i.e., the cost opportunity of not trading Manning) to keep Luck on the bench? And Manning will be worth less in trade after the 2012 season, so sitting him for a year doesn't make a lot of sense to me, either.

I think the Jets and Ravens are too invested in their QBs to actually pull the trigger. I think SF is a good darkhorse, especially if Smith craps the best in the post-season.

Lions?!? -QG

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

The Jets and Ravens have championship teams except at quarterback. I wouldn't be shocked if either team put in a move to get Manning next year. Maybe the Redskins, 49ers, Lions, Bears and Vikings are in the running, too.

But if the Colts get Luck, Manning becomes expendable. I guess the three questions become:

1) What does Manning go for if he doesn't play a down this season?

2) What does Manning go for if he comes back in weeks 16 and 17 and plays well?

3) What does Manning go for it he comes back in weeks 16 and 17 and plays poorly?

4) Which team pursues Manning the most?

Obviously it's possible that the Colts keep Manning and draft Luck. But to me, that's stupid. If Luck is your franchise savior, is it really worth losing out on multiple high draft picks (i.e., the cost opportunity of not trading Manning) to keep Luck on the bench? And Manning will be worth less in trade after the 2012 season, so sitting him for a year doesn't make a lot of sense to me, either.

I think the Jets and Ravens are too invested in their QBs to actually pull the trigger. I think SF is a good darkhorse, especially if Smith craps the best in the post-season.

Lions?!? -QG

Why wouldn't a team like Jacksonville or Tennesee be in the running of teams to consider going after Manning? Would think that a conference rival would be all over trying to get Manning.Gabbert has a 4 yr/$12 mil guaranteed contract, but it's not like he's lighting the world on fire. Bringing in Manning could kill his confidence, but it could also help JAX win games now and help groom Gabbert for the future (much like you assume the Colts would do with Luck, who is sure to get a bigger contract than Gabbert's).

Hasselbeck has the Titans on the hook for 3 yr/$20. Matt's found new life in Ten, but this is the Texan's division this year, and a healthy Manning is surely a better option.

 

[msommer]

The Titans also have Locker that they chose over Gabbert. Would they rather have Manning? Maybe but not sure they want his contract.

 

[The Comedian]

at Manning going for a "bounty."

 

[Max Power]

Manning, who is slowly recovering from neck surgery, is due a $28 million bonus next season and will turn 36 in March. The Colts can opt out of the deal if they choose. Nov 15 - 8:38 AMSource: Associated Press

+ a 7million salary on top of that. It might be time for Indy to just cut their losses and go into full blown rebuild mode with Luck.

 

[cheese]

I don't think he will fetch a ton in a trade due to contract, but there is no reason at all to consider cutting him. If you want out from the contract, just lower the asking price in a trade. Someone will take him on.

To answer the OP, I think the price is in the neighborhood of Carson Palmer. A 1st plus a little more.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I don't think he will fetch a ton in a trade due to contract, but there is no reason at all to consider cutting him. If you want out from the contract, just lower the asking price in a trade. Someone will take him on. To answer the OP, I think the price is in the neighborhood of Carson Palmer. A 1st plus a little more.

The Raiders can't trade their first rounder until 2014 now, though.-QG