How to finish average scoring draft? (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

Some leagues don't select starters each week but use the average of all players on your roster by position. 

So if Mahomes gets 30 but your backup QB gets 12, your weekly score is 21 for QBs.

How would you close out a draft? Suppose rounds 15-20, 1 pt PPR, 12 team league, draft went according to ADP.

 

[Bri]

One thing I'm thinking is to avoid positions I feel great about. Like if I have great RBs then I am not drafting a RB in 15-20.

Ending it with all Ks was a thing but that isn't feasible anymore.

This is as much about math as it is FF

 

[Gally]

Interesting concept that I think I would hate.  

On to the issue.  I agree with your assessment that if you have a strong starting class of players that you really don't want any duds bringing you down.  That essentially means that handcuffs are a terrible idea.  That just hacks into your stud's production and really hurts your team.  So I would stay away from any handcuffs.  However, I think this also supports completely punting RB early because and going with the zero RB strategy as you won't get hurt early while the NFL is figuring out which of those RBBC guys will get the leading role.  You can roll the dice with a bunch of them and if they start weeding themselves out you can trim the losers as the year goes on to not damage your overall output.

For the late round situation, Kickers is a good thought but I assume by your comment about it not being feasible anymore that most teams do this so there aren't as many kickers to draft.  What about Defenses?  Is that the same situation?

Do back up QB's count if they never get a down?  If not, that may be a nice way to go and then hope that they don't come in to hand-off in a blow out.  

What about guys on IR or listed out?  How do those factor in?

 

[Bri]

Yes kickers and starting QBs are gone. Basically they're (eventually) low floor low ceiling mid round picks which correlate well with averages so everyone selects them in a run. 

It gives this my roster is done, I'm feeling good about my team vibe BUT round 15 or so you're afraid you'll wreck your team with low performance average values

 

[Bri]

Interesting concept that I think I would hate.  

On to the issue.  I agree with your assessment that if you have a strong starting class of players that you really don't want any duds bringing you down.  That essentially means that handcuffs are a terrible idea.  That just hacks into your stud's production and really hurts your team.  So I would stay away from any handcuffs.  However, I think this also supports completely punting RB early because and going with the zero RB strategy as you won't get hurt early while the NFL is figuring out which of those RBBC guys will get the leading role.  You can roll the dice with a bunch of them and if they start weeding themselves out you can trim the losers as the year goes on to not damage your overall output.

What about guys on IR or listed out?  How do those factor in?

I didn't like the concept initially but I think that's just the normal resistance to change. Five minutes later when I started planning, I enjoy the challenge. 

I like the idea of RBBC leader. I'm not sure there are many left by round 15. I'll double-check.

I had been thinking TD vultures.

The NFL does usually have a speedy few WRs that are good for 2 for 50 yards weekly. I went to ol Ted Ginn and a few others on PFR. In this context, they're not different from other backups. Low weeks are low weeks.

It's really like where would you like to shoot yourself in the foot.

Right now I'm thinking TEs. 

I have Goedert and Hock and Gesecki on teams in scoring like this. I wasn't going backup TE but drafts are still ongoing.

Now though (shot in foot) ....I don't want to wreck a stellar Henry or Mahomes week with a low average. Their highs are 20-30 points. The solid TEs weekly are roughly 7-15 points.

If I draft a slew of TEs that are two catch 20 yard guys (ignoring 2-3 TDs per year) then I think the wound (going too far with analogy?) is minimized.

Sound reasonable? Got a better idea?

 

[joey]

I didn't like the concept initially but I think that's just the normal resistance to change. Five minutes later when I started planning, I enjoy the challenge. 

I like the idea of RBBC leader. I'm not sure there are many left by round 15. I'll double-check.

I had been thinking TD vultures.

The NFL does usually have a speedy few WRs that are good for 2 for 50 yards weekly. I went to ol Ted Ginn and a few others on PFR. In this context, they're not different from other backups. Low weeks are low weeks.

It's really like where would you like to shoot yourself in the foot.

Right now I'm thinking TEs. 

I have Goedert and Hock and Gesecki on teams in scoring like this. I wasn't going backup TE but drafts are still ongoing.

Now though (shot in foot) ....I don't want to wreck a stellar Henry or Mahomes week with a low average. Their highs are 20-30 points. The solid TEs weekly are roughly 7-15 points.

If I draft a slew of TEs that are two catch 20 yard guys (ignoring 2-3 TDs per year) then I think the wound (going too far with analogy?) is minimized.

Sound reasonable? Got a better idea?

Weird league format. Would not like  

But where you ended up (TE) is what I was thinking but even more extreme. Don’t even bother drafting really good TEs. Draft in the TE15 range over and over again til you have 5 TEs and who cares if you end up with just 6 points. Basically, intentionally trash that position entirely. 
of course, I’d prefer to do this at the K position instead of TE but it sounds like that might not be as feasible in your league. My first preference is to totally trash the K and D positions (even if it means drafting some early-ish when the runs are happening so you can be sure to roster 4 of each or something like that) if not K and D, then TE would be next for me. 
 

man, this is a weird concept. Hurts my head. Is it actually FUN?

 

[Gally]

man, this is a weird concept. Hurts my head. Is it actually FUN?

I agree.  I would also want the minimum players rostered.  It almost makes your first 3 or 4 picks really hampered and totally caps their upside.  This seems like a league that will always be average.  Really normalized all scoring and makes everything blah.

I also don't like rules that make you look for loopholes.  This seems like the epitome of a league that makes you figure out a loophole to get around the rules.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Interesting concept that I think I would hate.  

I will be more confident: I would 100% hate this format.  

 

[nysfl2]

I'm pretty sure that in this format, I'd draft one elite QB and TE (first and second round, if necessary), and don't touch another one for the rest of the draft.

Sounds like I would be taking a zero for the QB's bye week (and probably pretty close to that for the TE), but the advantage of having elite scores at the two positions would crush everyone else's average scores.

 

[TheWinz]

I assume you use QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and D?

And yes, this is not Fantasy Football... this is simply a math problem that needs to be figured out.

 

[TheWinz]

And for scoring, I assume all players count every week, whether they are on a bye week or not, injured, suspended, etc?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm pretty sure that in this format, I'd draft one elite QB and TE (first and second round, if necessary), and don't touch another one for the rest of the draft.

Sounds like I would be taking a zero for the QB's bye week (and probably pretty close to that for the TE), but the advantage of having elite scores at the two positions would crush everyone else's average scores.

Yeah - reading it, it seemed like there were a lot of loopholes to cheat the system. These are 2 prefect examples. 

 

[ZWK]

Weird league format. Would not like  

But where you ended up (TE) is what I was thinking but even more extreme. Don’t even bother drafting really good TEs. Draft in the TE15 range over and over again til you have 5 TEs and who cares if you end up with just 6 points. Basically, intentionally trash that position entirely. 
of course, I’d prefer to do this at the K position instead of TE but it sounds like that might not be as feasible in your league. My first preference is to totally trash the K and D positions (even if it means drafting some early-ish when the runs are happening so you can be sure to roster 4 of each or something like that) if not K and D, then TE would be next for me. 
 

man, this is a weird concept. Hurts my head. Is it actually FUN?

This is probably what I'd do. Spend the first 10-15 rounds drafting players I actually want on my team, but no TEs. Once the players I actually want are all gone, then only draft TEs. So only 1 of my 9ish starting spots is sabotaged by low scorers, and I haven't wasted any of my early to mid round draft picks on players who are going to be diluted by low scorers.

If I get a top TE, then maybe I'd do this with kickers instead. Including by rostering kickers who aren't even starting, and just taking their zeros.

I think it's best to dilute a singleton position, because that's only 1 starting slot rather than multiple slots. And to focus on diluting just one position, because then the bad players are also diluting each other, and again it's only 1 starting slot that gets significantly diluted. And probably not QB because QBs score so much (unless you can do it with other NFL starters at QB who are only a few points less). Defenses actually run out, which leaves tight end & kicker.

 

[joey]

This is probably what I'd do. Spend the first 10-15 rounds drafting players I actually want on my team, but no TEs. Once the players I actually want are all gone, then only draft TEs. So only 1 of my 9ish starting spots is sabotaged by low scorers, and I haven't wasted any of my early to mid round draft picks on players who are going to be diluted by low scorers.

If I get a top TE, then maybe I'd do this with kickers instead. Including by rostering kickers who aren't even starting, and just taking their zeros.

I think it's best to dilute a singleton position, because that's only 1 starting slot rather than multiple slots. And to focus on diluting just one position, because then the bad players are also diluting each other, and again it's only 1 starting slot that gets significantly diluted. And probably not QB because QBs score so much (unless you can do it with other NFL starters at QB who are only a few points less). Defenses actually run out, which leaves tight end & kicker.

Ha. Hadn’t even thought of that. Yup. I’m drafting 7 TEs or kickers whether they actually start for a team or not. Take close to a zero in 1 category. 
just typing that makes me assume that there are likely also roster restrictions in this league which, once again, likely proves that this is more of a math problem than fantasy football. 

 

[ratbast]

I would tier draft across the board paying no attention to K and D until the end. I would take higher tier no matter what position as scarcity is basically nullified by rules. 

 

[Gally]

I would tier draft across the board paying no attention to K and D until the end. I would take higher tier no matter what position as scarcity is basically nullified by rules. 

But that would just lower your overall score by always having potential bad games dropping your averages.  This is where you need to go STUDS and blanks which is why stocking up on lower potential positions (TE, K, DEF) minimizes the bench fodder effect.  

 

[ratbast]

But that would just lower your overall score by always having potential bad games dropping your averages.  This is where you need to go STUDS and blanks which is why stocking up on lower potential positions (TE, K, DEF) minimizes the bench fodder effect.  

Yes, endgame stocking up on K, Def, TE probably but I’m still drafting highest tier within positions and not overall rankings. Assuming trades and FA/WW are still in play I still want the best I can get. Yes by round 15 I’m looking at my roster and making decisions. But I’m not passing on winning TE by taking Dobbins over Kelse. I might struggle some in the early schedule but it’s a marathon not a sprint. 

 

[Gally]

Yes, endgame stocking up on K, Def, TE probably but I’m still drafting highest tier within positions and not overall rankings. Assuming trades and FA/WW are still in play I still want the best I can get. Yes by round 15 I’m looking at my roster and making decisions. But I’m not passing on winning TE by taking Dobbins over Kelse. I might struggle some in the early schedule but it’s a marathon not a sprint. 

In general I agree but not for the lesser positions.  If you did take a Kelce early then that would cross of the roster fodder TE choices because you wouldn't want any other TE's on the roster to diminish Kelce's advantage.  

 

[ratbast]

Exactly why I’m tier drafting. If I have Kelse i am still big time raising the avg

 

[Gally]

Exactly why I’m tier drafting. If I have Kelse i am still big time raising the avg

If you have Kelce, Trautman, and Brate then you are not going to have the same advantage over the team that has Hockenson only.    Getting a stud TE is great but you then have to forego any other TE's to maximize that advantage.   This then means you have to have more of every other position which brings down all of those averages.  I guess you have to calculate if that is worth the positional advantage of just having Kelce.

As other's have said.......this is a math problem.......and I think somewhere they said there wouldn't be math.

 

[ratbast]

I disagree. I’m still replacing Brate with this years Shultz in week 3 and winning TE for the rest of the year. Draft the best players. 
it’s similar to roto baseball. 

 

[ratbast]

And if his Hochenson goes down he can’t catch me ever. 

 

[ZWK]

If this is a draft-and-done league with no in-season waivers, and every player on your roster counts towards the average (even if he's on IR), then I think you only want to draft starters at most positions. No depth at all. Only 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs on your entire roster (assuming that's what you start, with no flex spot).

Depth doesn't actually help you at all. e.g., Say you get 2 QBs so they can cover each other's bye weeks, and they each score 20 points when they play. Then you get 20 points most weeks, but only 10 points when one QB is on bye. That happens twice, which costs you 20 points total. Which is the same as what you'd lose if you only had 1 QB and took a zero on his bye week. Similarly, if you have only 1 QB and he gets injured then you're taking zeros every week. But if you have 2 QBs and 1 of them gets injured then you're getting 10s every week. You're losing half your points, and you're twice as likely to have a QB get injured (since you have 2 of them), so it's a wash. In reality your 2nd QB is on average going to be worse than your 1st, so you're costing yourself points on average by drafting a second. Also, just drafting 1 makes your roster more boom-or-bust (you get full scores or zero, rather than half-scores), which increases your chances of finishing at the top of your league or at the bottom, and reduces your chances of finishing in the middle. Which is good.

And it works the same with RBs & WRs. Your 3rd RB is pulling down your average. He also makes it so that missed games leave you with 2/3 scoring instead of 1/2, but that is completely balanced out by having 3 RBs who could miss games instead of just 2.

If it's an actively managed league with add-drops then it can be worth drafting some depth, and then cutting players who get injured or struggle.

 

[TheWinz]

WARNING - LONG POST AHEAD!!!

2021 QB's
QB1 = 27.2
QB8 = 22.1
QB16 = 16.6
QB24 = 14.1
QB32 = 7.9
QB40 = 3.8
QB48 = 2.0
QB56 = 0.9
QB64 = 0.3
QB72 = 0.0

2021 RB's
RB1 = 22.2
RB8 = 13.8
RB16 = 12.3
RB24 = 10.5
RB32 = 8.6
RB40 = 7.3
RB48 = 6.9
RB56 = 5.9
RB64 = 4.4
RB72 = 3.5
RB80 = 2.9
RB88 = 2.3
RB96 = 1.8
RB104 = 1.4
RB112 = 1.1
RB120 = 0.7
RB128 = 0.5
RB136 = 0.3
RB144 = 0.2
RB152 = 0.1
RB160 = 0.0

2021 WR's
WR1 = 25.7
WR8 = 16.3
WR16 = 14.1
WR24 = 12.9
WR32 = 10.8
WR40 = 9.3
WR48 = 8.4
WR56 = 7.6
WR64 = 6.5
WR72 = 6.1
WR80 = 5.2
WR88 = 4.9
WR96 = 4.6
WR104 = 4.1
WR112 = 3.5
WR120 = 2.9
WR128 = 2.4
WR136 = 2.0
WR144 = 1.7
WR152 = 1.3
WR160 = 1.1
WR168 = 0.8
WR176 = 0.6
WR184 = 0.5
WR192 = 0.4
WR200 = 0.3
WR208 = 0.2
WR216 = 0.1
WR224 = 0.0

2021 TE's
TE1 = 17.5
TE8 = 9.7
TE16 = 8.1
TE24 = 6.1
TE32 = 4.5
TE40 = 3.7
TE48 = 3.0
TE56 = 2.4
TE64 = 1.9
TE72 = 1.1
TE80 = 0.9
TE88 = 0.6
TE96 = 0.4
TE104 = 0.3
TE112 = 0.2
TE120 = 0.1
TE128 = 0.0

2021 K's
K1 = 8.8
K8 = 7.9
K16 = 7.1
K24 = 5.5
K32 = 2.4
K40 = 0.5
K48 = 0.0

2021 D's
D1 = 8.9
D8 = 6.4
D16 = 5.8
D24 = 4.6
D32 = 3.6

We need more information.  In the end, the person who wins your league will be the one who knew the rules and scoring, and used them to their advantage.  As an example, there are 33 kicker options when you mock at fantasy football calculator, 40 when you mock at fantasy pros, 47 listed on footballguys depth charts, and 50 listed on yahoo sports.  What website are you drafting from?  Are there roster limitations?  Please post particulars and I would enjoy figuring this out. 

 

[Bri]

@TheWinzthank you for the numbers. That will be real helpful.

I can't give any more info really to summarize three leagues. There won't be 47 Ks taken and any remaining kickers are camp leg UDFAs. The Cowboys kicker can't be selected on MFL and idk why but whatever. Every UDFA K I looked up is going against (something like) a K that had a nice 2021 season and has an unreasonable cut type contract. Could a team eat five mil in salary if a UDFA K rocks in camp? Sure but it just felt wasteful with my time after I did several it was oh skip this 31 Ks gone, they're done. I had written that all the Ks were gone. This was by about round 11 in each league. 

Respectfully I don't really want to dig into kickers that aren't available. I'd like to sit and dig into those numbers you posted because I really think they're great.

 

[Bri]

@ZWK yes to everything. I'd have a nine person team if I could. The twenty rounds is mandatory and that's the challenge of it.