How to Rank Achane (1 Viewer)

[cheese]

Quick disclaimer. I use FBG rankings and very much respect the people putting in the work.

One guy that I think everyone is having an impossible time ranking is Achane. The issue that makes him hard is if you try to really project out the Dolphins snaps/touches/yards/TDs, it's basically impossible to rank him highly by math. From what I can tell, FBG has decided to just stick to the projection. The default rankings for the site show him RB15 where I'm looking, slightly behind guys like RWhite and Kamara. I clicked into some rankers lists to see if their actual rankings list show something different than the projections and, just for example, Matt Waldman has him behind Austin Ekeler. Maybe that's right, but that's an extreme ranking. You could play 50 home leagues and 50 best ball leagues and never get Achane once if you really rank him RB17. He's RB16 on the top300. In most drafts he goes around R2, something like RB9 and I don't know that I've ever seen him go after some of these guys. Again, maybe that's the point. Maybe it's right.

So I have a few questions for the Shark Pool.
How do you handle players that almost everyone would agree has league winning upside based on efficiency/talent/situation, but the volume just won't let the math rank him there?

How do you avoid drafting a "boring" team without ignoring projections? I am a math/analytics guy by nature. I don't feel comfortable drafting on gut or that I know better. With that said, if you base everything on projections, don't you just land with all the empty volume guys with very little upside?

Are you guys using the "upside" and "downside" bars on the rankings?

I personally believe the projection on Achane to just be wrong, but I also think it's more indicative of some bigger questions. There are certain guys every year that you already know can break fantasy football. Achane can be the RB1 and I wouldn't be all that surprised. So can the projection be correct, and the ranking be way wrong at the same time?

 

[Scoresman]

I keep going back and forth. Right now, I'm in the phase where I want to target him. He's in a position where any injury to Mostert has a high probability of making Achane a league winner. He may be a league winner even if Mostert stays healthy,

These are exactly the kind of guys you draft to avoid a boring team. We can use VBD and stuff all day to draft, but sometimes a guy's upside is too good despite the risk.

 

[Ilov80s]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

 

[JohnnyU]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but whose counting.

 

[zoonation]

Draft cost is too high for the significant downside IMO. You need to bank on all-time efficiency to even pay it off at ADP with the injury risk. I think Mostert is the shark play again this year.

Achane will never be a 15+ touch guy.

 

[Anarchy99]

From Weeks 13-19 (7 games), DA scored 93.5 points (PPR) on 90 touches. That's 13 touches a game. At the same usage rate and assuming full health (ie, 17 games played), that would have projected out to 227 points (and he would have finished the season ranked tied as RB12). That probably factors in the ups and downs in touches pretty well. People can adjust accordingly (number of games he will play, how many touches he gets, his production, etc.)

I realize that excludes any consideration for the huge games he had early, but I am going to guess he won't have too many 3-game stretches with 500+ YFS with 7 TD averaging 12 touches a game.

 

[Rookiefever]

I’m redraft at adp I’d much rather have the safer investments. He’s alllllmost being taken at his upside potential and now they have another quality rb on the squad. Easy pass for me.

 

[zoonation]

From Weeks 13-19 (7 games), DA scored 93.5 points (PPR) on 90 touches. That's 13 touches a game. At the same usage rate and assuming full health (ie, 17 games played), that would have projected out to 227 points (and he would have finished the season ranked tied as RB12). That probably factors in the ups and downs in touches pretty well. People can adjust accordingly (number of games he will play, how many touches he gets, his production, etc.)

I realize that excludes any consideration for the huge games he had early, but I am going to guess he won't have too many 3-game stretches with 500+ YFS with 7 TD averaging 12 touches a game.

he was also coming off an injury too. if you told me he plays 17 games I am pulling the trigger. I just don't believe he will.

 

[TripItUp]

hard pass on Achane...won't be on any of my teams. I prefer reliable options at his ADP.

 

[Anarchy99]

hard pass on Achane...won't be on any of my teams. I prefer reliable options at his ADP.

He was a dream last year. Draft him for peanuts. Let him go crazy early, then sell about as high as you could ever imagine. Then let someone else deal with him getting hurt and being inconsistent. I know folks that got huge hauls for him a few weeks into the season and that carried them to titles.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

League winner.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Big fan of the Miami RBs, basically whoever has non-injury luck will score mucho points. And if one or the other does not have that luck a 3rd option is the rookie Jaylen Wright, currently RB #46 in the ADP rankings.

 

[Ilov80s]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Based on his ADP, he’s basically a DND for me in redraft

He’s currently going as the RB 11, 23rd overall in one quarterback format. That’s well ahead of Kamara, James Cook, Rashad, White, and Kenneth Walker.

I just have a hard time taking a guy that early who isn’t going to get significant volume.

Having said that, I’m positive when I face him this year he’ll go absolutely ham against me. Murphy’s Law, and all that.

 

[kyoun1e]

Big fan of the Miami RBs, basically whoever has non-injury luck will score mucho points. And if one or the other does not have that luck a 3rd option is the rookie Jaylen Wright, currently RB #46 in the ADP rankings.

Exactly why if I draft Achane in round 2, I'm drafting Mostert AND Wright as well.

I played that game last year and it worked out well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

League winner.

The potential is certainly there.
Or not. Lol.

 

[JohnnyU]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

 

[Chaka]

By height.

 

[joey]

Based on his ADP, he’s basically a DND for me in redraft

He’s currently going as the RB 11, 23rd overall in one quarterback format. That’s well ahead of Camara, James Cook, Rashad, White, and Kenneth Walker.

I just have a hard time taking a guy that early who isn’t going to get significant volume.

Having said that, I’m positive when I face him this year he’ll go absolutely ham against me. Murphy’s Law, and all that.

Liking RWihte and Walker best out of that group which makes me go WR in round 2 knowing I can likely get one of those 2 in round 3.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Big fan of the Miami RBs, basically whoever has non-injury luck will score mucho points. And if one or the other does not have that luck a 3rd option is the rookie Jaylen Wright, currently RB #46 in the ADP rankings.

Exactly why if I draft Achane in round 2, I'm drafting Mostert AND Wright as well.

I played that game last year and it worked out well.

Depending on roster size, that could be a very challenging strategy. My redraft league does not have the biggest bench, and it’s IDP. I would have a hard time using three picks for basically one dude.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

By height.

Shut down the topic, we have a winner.

 

[kyoun1e]

Big fan of the Miami RBs, basically whoever has non-injury luck will score mucho points. And if one or the other does not have that luck a 3rd option is the rookie Jaylen Wright, currently RB #46 in the ADP rankings.

Exactly why if I draft Achane in round 2, I'm drafting Mostert AND Wright as well.

I played that game last year and it worked out well.

Depending on roster size, that could be a very challenging strategy. My redraft league does not have the biggest bench, and it’s IDP. I would have a hard time using three picks for basically one dude.

Understandable.

I usually max out my RBs at 8 in total as I'm constantly rotating in lotto tickets.

Of course that means I'm usually rolling with one TE, 4-5 WRs, and one QB.

 

[Ilov80s]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

 

[JohnnyU]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Gooooooo Wright in 25’

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

I don’t mind placing that bet.

what I struggle with is the cost.

 

[Ilov80s]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Gooooooo Wright in 25’

Wright could be a big hit in 24 if either of the others misses time (which will likely happen).

 

[JohnnyU]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Gooooooo Wright in 25’

Wright could be a big hit in 24 if either of the others misses time (which will likely happen).

Maybe, but Wright doesn’t rhyme with 24.

 

[Anarchy99]

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Interesting that in discussing the MIA RB, the term "outlier season" was more applied to Mostert. Achane had the highest ypc ever by a RB with 100 carries in a season . . . by 1.32 yards. Of players that had 130 or fewer touches and at least 75 carries and 25 receptions, Achane had over 100 more YFS than any other back had before him.

As for Mostert, in his 2 seasons in MIA, he's played in 31 games and essentially had 1100 YFS in both of them. Yeah, he's not scoring 21 TD again, but that doesn't mean that Achane is the beneficiary. The Dolphins got 34 TD from their RBs last year but only had 15 the season before. I'm guessing they finish somewhere in the middle of those two this year. Mostert has only had 3 games with 20 or more carries in his career, and they all came over the second half of last season. He held up over the course of a season. Will a 32 year old hold up again? Maybe, but probably not. That doesn't necessarily mean Achane would get a bigger workload. In the 2 games RS missed, DA averaged 12 carries.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Interesting that in discussing the MIA RB, the term "outlier season" was more applied to Mostert. Achane had the highest ypc ever by a RB with 100 carries in a season . . . by 1.32 yards. Of players that had 130 or fewer touches and at least 75 carries and 25 receptions, Achane had over 100 more YFS than any other back had before him.

As for Mostert, in his 2 seasons in MIA, he's played in 31 games and essentially had 1100 YFS in both of them. Yeah, he's not scoring 21 TD again, but that doesn't mean that Achane is the beneficiary. The Dolphins got 34 TD from their RBs last year but only had 15 the season before. I'm guessing they finish someone in the middle of those two this year. Mostert has only had 3 games with 20 or more carries, and they all came over the second half of last season. He held up over the course of a season. Will a 32 year old hold up again? Maybe, but probably not. That doesn't necessarily Achane would get a bigger workload. In the 2 games RS missed, DA averaged 12 carries.

 

[TheWinz]

From Weeks 13-19 (7 games), DA scored 93.5 points (PPR) on 90 touches. That's 13 touches a game. At the same usage rate and assuming full health (ie, 17 games played), that would have projected out to 227 points (and he would have finished the season ranked tied as RB12). That probably factors in the ups and downs in touches pretty well. People can adjust accordingly (number of games he will play, how many touches he gets, his production, etc.)

I realize that excludes any consideration for the huge games he had early, but I am going to guess he won't have too many 3-game stretches with 500+ YFS with 7 TD averaging 12 touches a game.

Another way to look at those same numbers - As you know, in those 7 games, he averaged 13.4 PPG. If you go back and sort the 2023 RB's by PPG, you will see there were 20 RB's over 13.4 that played in at least 10 games. And yes, I think those 7 games seem more like what we can expect out of him than that 3 game stretch.
Weeks 3 thru 5 - averaged 12.3 carries for 151.7 yards = 12.3 yards per carry
Weeks 13 thru 19 - averaged 10.0 carries for 49.7 yards = 5.0 yards per carry

One of the stretches above is completely unsustainable, and the other looks very normal. Let's face it - RB's need volume to be a RB1. Either that or an insane amount of TD's (like 2023 Mostert), or an insane amount of catches (like 2015 Woodhead). So, if Achane can manage a RB1 finish, will it be volume, TD's, or catches? It HAS to be at least 1 of them, unless someone can find me a RB1 finisher that had none of them.

 

[ffmail4me]

By height.

Well done Fletch

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

From Weeks 13-19 (7 games), DA scored 93.5 points (PPR) on 90 touches. That's 13 touches a game. At the same usage rate and assuming full health (ie, 17 games played), that would have projected out to 227 points (and he would have finished the season ranked tied as RB12). That probably factors in the ups and downs in touches pretty well. People can adjust accordingly (number of games he will play, how many touches he gets, his production, etc.)

I realize that excludes any consideration for the huge games he had early, but I am going to guess he won't have too many 3-game stretches with 500+ YFS with 7 TD averaging 12 touches a game.

Another way to look at those same numbers - As you know, in those 7 games, he averaged 13.4 PPG. If you go back and sort the 2023 RB's by PPG, you will see there were 20 RB's over 13.4 that played in at least 10 games. And yes, I think those 7 games seem more like what we can expect out of him than that 3 game stretch.
Weeks 3 thru 5 - averaged 12.3 carries for 151.7 yards = 12.3 yards per carry
Weeks 13 thru 19 - averaged 10.0 carries for 49.7 yards = 5.0 yards per carry

One of the stretches above is completely unsustainable, and the other looks very normal. Let's face it - RB's need volume to be a RB1. Either that or an insane amount of TD's (like 2023 Mostert), or an insane amount of catches (like 2015 Woodhead). So, if Achane can manage a RB1 finish, will it be volume, TD's, or catches? It HAS to be at least 1 of them, unless someone can find me a RB1 finisher that had none of them.

You both make excellent points.

As an aside, how run-heavy does everyone think Miami’s offense is going to be?

 

[Anarchy99]

Another way to look at those same numbers

If we leave the actual players out of the equation, the bottom line is it's very unlikely the MIA RB group will be putting up 2847 YFS / 34 total TD again this season. That's about 3 rungs above insane totals. That was a 40% increase in YFS and a 126% increase in TD compared to the 2022 season (2034 / 15). IMO, it's probably best to figure out what a more normalized total would be and then assign that production between the MIA RBs.

 

[Chaka]

By height.

Well done Fletch

Thank you very little.

 

[BassNBrew]

Literally impossible. His upside vs downside is as wide as it gets for fantasy football. Could be Chris Johnson like 2000 yard season or a guy who only touches the ball 6 times a game and is hurt half the time. Who the heck knows.

Johnson was two inches taller and fifteen pounds heavier, but who’s counting.

Not sure that matters. Much of the league is smaller now.

The blue tent has also become more popular than ever then. I’m not ready to say size isn’t directly related to injuries.

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Just remember that McDaniel brought him in from his last coaching stop. Obviously he saw something in him.

 

[TheWinz]

Mostert has a very extensive injury history. I’m willing to take the bet the 2nd year player with good draft capital and insane rookie efficiency can overtake a 32 year old veteran who has basically had 1 major outlier season in his whole career and before that has just been an oft injured journeyman platoon back.

Interesting that in discussing the MIA RB, the term "outlier season" was more applied to Mostert. Achane had the highest ypc ever by a RB with 100 carries in a season . . . by 1.32 yards. Of players that had 130 or fewer touches and at least 75 carries and 25 receptions, Achane had over 100 more YFS than any other back had before him.

As for Mostert, in his 2 seasons in MIA, he's played in 31 games and essentially had 1100 YFS in both of them. Yeah, he's not scoring 21 TD again, but that doesn't mean that Achane is the beneficiary. The Dolphins got 34 TD from their RBs last year but only had 15 the season before. I'm guessing they finish someone in the middle of those two this year. Mostert has only had 3 games with 20 or more carries, and they all came over the second half of last season. He held up over the course of a season. Will a 32 year old hold up again? Maybe, but probably not. That doesn't necessarily Achane would get a bigger workload. In the 2 games RS missed, DA averaged 12 carries.

Awesome post, kudos

 

[Mitchie]

By height.

Well done Fletch

Isn't that a Caddyshack quote?

 

[ffmail4me]

By height.

Well done Fletch

Isn't that a Caddyshack quote?

By height.

Well done Fletch

Isn't that a Caddyshack quote?

DOH!!!! I'm gonna go sit in the corner. Of course its Caddyshack had a brain fart. Ty, what did you shoot today? Oh judge, I don't keep score...then how do you measure yourself with other golfers? by height

 

[Chaka]

By height.

Well done Fletch

Isn't that a Caddyshack quote?

By height.

Well done Fletch

Isn't that a Caddyshack quote?

DOH!!!! I'm gonna go sit in the corner. Of course its Caddyshack had a brain fart. Ty, what did you shoot today? Oh judge, I don't keep score...then how do you measure yourself with other golfers? by height

Chevy Chase juxtaposition. No need for the corner.

 

[3nOut]

No one remembers who finished second. You can take someone safer as your RB2, but your RB3 will be mediocre as well. I prefer to take my chances on someone who can help win me a championship and manage my roster if he busts. I probably still have a boring and safer RB3 myself that can fill his shoes anyway.

Stud + Potential League Winner + Boring RB3 > Stud + Boring RB2 + Boring RB3

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Draft Achane early. Hedge your bets with Jaylen Wright in the 14th and assume what anyone should... Mostert at 32, has a chance of injury and you're owning the backfield and betting on youth at a position that youth dominates.

 

[kyoun1e]

No one remembers who finished second. You can take someone safer as your RB2, but your RB3 will be mediocre as well. I prefer to take my chances on someone who can help win me a championship and manage my roster if he busts. I probably still have a boring and safer RB3 myself that can fill his shoes anyway.

Stud + Potential League Winner + Boring RB3 > Stud + Boring RB2 + Boring RB3

As someone who grabbed both Mostert and Kyren W. last year, it's killing me to reach for Achane in round 2 this year.

I seem to do this every year though and somehow figure it out. Last year it was D. Pierce too early.

 

[nittanylion]

Like others, I'm passing on Achane for other RB's I prefer around his ADP.

Mostert is winding up on a lot of my Teams, and I'm grabbing Jaylen Wright wherever I can, if a Draft shakes out right, and he fits into my plan.

In relation to capturing the lightning Achane brought to the field in 2023, I'm finding myself with an overwhelming amount Jaleel McLaughlin (poor man's Achane) shares. He costs next to nothing, I like the pop and sizzle he offers, and if the Broncos/Bo Nix continue the positive trend they seem to be setting, he offers some similar upside as COP for the Javonte/Estime platoon, especially if Perine doesn't make the cut. Kid is a fast, and a surprisingly adept inside runner, and Coach really likes him. Works for me.

 

[pinkstapler]

On the OP post, I listen to Waldman's podcasts regularly and he said the past two that he is moving Achane up his rankings; so expect that to change shortly if it hasn't already.

At this point, I've over trying to convince anyone Achane is very much worth his RB10 late 2nd round redraft value. Mainly because those who don't believe in him all make very valid and logically sound arguments why they feel that way. His numbers last year were statistical outliers and bound for regression, and he's small. I agree with both of those points 100%. Where I diverge is, even with a huge regression to the mean, dropping nearly 2 ypt from his numbers, and giving him not even 50% of the touches projects him as a top 3 RB. And while projecting injuries seems faulty at best, dinging him 3 games and just projecting those numbers out at 14 games played still puts him top 6 RB for me. So even then, he's still exceeding his current cost IMO. You add in the fact that he is one of a very small handful of players in fantasy who can singlehandedly win you a week by dropping 40+ pts and no one would really be surprised.

I typically lean towards high floors with my early round picks, and swing for the fences with upside later in the draft (like a Jameson Williams); but I think Achane is worth it this year under all the other conditions I've experienced in drafts up to this point. I've had benches stacked with later round value RBs I think are well undervalued. I'm routinely landing James Conner in the late 5th, Najae/Zamir in the late 6th, Chase Brown/Tajae/J.Brooks in the 8th and 9th rounds.... To me it's some of the best RB value late of recent years. And when I have 3 or 4 of these guys padding my roster at such a low cost who routinely will get me to double digits in any weeks Achane might miss, it just reinforces the sentiment of "take the game breaker". I could be hugely wrong here on Achane, but how drafts have been going for me the past month, it feels like it won't be losing me an entire season even if he is a miss there. Not when I can be using the other draft capitol to still land 2 top 12 WRs, a top 4 TE, another WR2, and a top 6 QB to fill out the rest of the roster avoiding all the other upper RB prospects who to me have just as many, if not more, red flags than Achane. And a ceiling that is maybe 20% of Achanes.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I typically lean towards high floors with my early round picks, and swing for the fences with upside later in the draft (like a Jameson Williams); but I think Achane is worth it this year under all the other conditions I've experienced in drafts up to this point. I've had benches stacked with later round value RBs I think are well undervalued. I'm routinely landing James Conner in the late 5th, Najae/Zamir in the late 6th, Chase Brown/Tajae/J.Brooks in the 8th and 9th rounds.... To me it's some of the best RB value late of recent years. And when I have 3 or 4 of these guys padding my roster at such a low cost who routinely will get me to double digits in any weeks Achane might miss, it just reinforces the sentiment of "take the game breaker". I could be hugely wrong here on Achane, but how drafts have been going for me the past month, it feels like it won't be losing me an entire season even if he is a miss there. Not when I can be using the other draft capitol to still land 2 top 12 WRs, a top 4 TE, another WR2, and a top 6 QB to fill out the rest of the roster avoiding all the other upper RB prospects who to me have just as many, if not more, red flags than Achane. And a ceiling that is maybe 20% of Achanes.

I think this is a good rationale. If you use an early pick on Achane, you need to build your team this way. If the rest of your RB stable is unreliable, your team will be sunk if Achane gets a significant injury.

I am able to keep him in my auction league for well under value, so I am not going out of my way to get him in my redrafts.

 

[pinkstapler]

I typically lean towards high floors with my early round picks, and swing for the fences with upside later in the draft (like a Jameson Williams); but I think Achane is worth it this year under all the other conditions I've experienced in drafts up to this point. I've had benches stacked with later round value RBs I think are well undervalued. I'm routinely landing James Conner in the late 5th, Najae/Zamir in the late 6th, Chase Brown/Tajae/J.Brooks in the 8th and 9th rounds.... To me it's some of the best RB value late of recent years. And when I have 3 or 4 of these guys padding my roster at such a low cost who routinely will get me to double digits in any weeks Achane might miss, it just reinforces the sentiment of "take the game breaker". I could be hugely wrong here on Achane, but how drafts have been going for me the past month, it feels like it won't be losing me an entire season even if he is a miss there. Not when I can be using the other draft capitol to still land 2 top 12 WRs, a top 4 TE, another WR2, and a top 6 QB to fill out the rest of the roster avoiding all the other upper RB prospects who to me have just as many, if not more, red flags than Achane. And a ceiling that is maybe 20% of Achanes.

I think this is a good rationale. If you use an early pick on Achane, you need to build your team this way. If the rest of your RB stable is unreliable, your team will be sunk if Achane gets a significant injury.

I am able to keep him in my auction league for well under value, so I am not going out of my way to get him in my redrafts.

Yeah if this was a year where those RBs I called out were all valued 4-6th round guys, I wouldn't be nearly as high ownership on Achane. But when I can fill out a bench in the middle rounds with starting RBs who have little competition and years of history of showing they can finish as RB2/3 guys putting up consistent, albeit not flashy, stat lines.... that changes things. It also helps that for whatever reasons TE values are in the gutter right now so you can grab Andrews/McBridge late 4th/early 5th. The options for filling out a roster feel so much broader to me than they have in years past, and it screams that I should be taking a bit more risk early on to get ahead of the pack early in the season. Read an article recently detailing your odds of making a championship starting out 3-1 as opposed to 1-3 and it's startling to say the least. I've been shifting from building a team to get hot down the stretch and more towards coming out the gate hot instead. It makes sense as it just gives you so many more options as the season progresses playing from a lead rather than scrambling.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I typically lean towards high floors with my early round picks, and swing for the fences with upside later in the draft (like a Jameson Williams); but I think Achane is worth it this year under all the other conditions I've experienced in drafts up to this point. I've had benches stacked with later round value RBs I think are well undervalued. I'm routinely landing James Conner in the late 5th, Najae/Zamir in the late 6th, Chase Brown/Tajae/J.Brooks in the 8th and 9th rounds.... To me it's some of the best RB value late of recent years. And when I have 3 or 4 of these guys padding my roster at such a low cost who routinely will get me to double digits in any weeks Achane might miss, it just reinforces the sentiment of "take the game breaker". I could be hugely wrong here on Achane, but how drafts have been going for me the past month, it feels like it won't be losing me an entire season even if he is a miss there. Not when I can be using the other draft capitol to still land 2 top 12 WRs, a top 4 TE, another WR2, and a top 6 QB to fill out the rest of the roster avoiding all the other upper RB prospects who to me have just as many, if not more, red flags than Achane. And a ceiling that is maybe 20% of Achanes.

I think this is a good rationale. If you use an early pick on Achane, you need to build your team this way. If the rest of your RB stable is unreliable, your team will be sunk if Achane gets a significant injury.

I am able to keep him in my auction league for well under value, so I am not going out of my way to get him in my redrafts.

Yeah if this was a year where those RBs I called out were all valued 4-6th round guys, I wouldn't be nearly as high ownership on Achane. But when I can fill out a bench in the middle rounds with starting RBs who have little competition and years of history of showing they can finish as RB2/3 guys putting up consistent, albeit not flashy, stat lines.... that changes things. It also helps that for whatever reasons TE values are in the gutter right now so you can grab Andrews/McBridge late 4th/early 5th. The options for filling out a roster feel so much broader to me than they have in years past, and it screams that I should be taking a bit more risk early on to get ahead of the pack early in the season. Read an article recently detailing your odds of making a championship starting out 3-1 as opposed to 1-3 and it's startling to say the least. I've been shifting from building a team to get hot down the stretch and more towards coming out the gate hot instead. It makes sense as it just gives you so many more options as the season progresses playing from a lead rather than scrambling.

What this also means is if you are doing "hero RB" -- an RB in the first or second round and then no more for a while -- Achane is not the guy to do that with.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here's another way to consider things. Achane initially caught defenses by surprise. His week with 233/4 came in a game where MIA scored 70 points. I don't think it's a crazy position to suggest that they won't score 70 points again anytime soon. After his notorious 3 game heater, Achane had 71 carries for 349 yards the rest of the season (including the payoffs). That works out to a 4.9 ypc. That falls in line with how other MIA backs have fared recently.

As a baseline projection (and people can make their own) . . . splitting the MIA RB TD total between the 2022 season (15 TD) and 2023 season (34):
12.5 carries * 4.9 ypc * 14 games = 858 yards
3 receptions * 7.5 ypr * 14 games = 42 for 315 yards
33% of RB TD (24 instead of 34) = 8 total TD

1173 YFS, 42 receptions, 8 TD = 207.3 fantasy points. Last year that would have ranked as RB17. I'm sure many people will say that's crazy and way too low, as he had 997 YFS / 11 TD last year in 11 games with limited usage. But IMO, that's a reasonable starting point.

 

[pinkstapler]

I typically lean towards high floors with my early round picks, and swing for the fences with upside later in the draft (like a Jameson Williams); but I think Achane is worth it this year under all the other conditions I've experienced in drafts up to this point. I've had benches stacked with later round value RBs I think are well undervalued. I'm routinely landing James Conner in the late 5th, Najae/Zamir in the late 6th, Chase Brown/Tajae/J.Brooks in the 8th and 9th rounds.... To me it's some of the best RB value late of recent years. And when I have 3 or 4 of these guys padding my roster at such a low cost who routinely will get me to double digits in any weeks Achane might miss, it just reinforces the sentiment of "take the game breaker". I could be hugely wrong here on Achane, but how drafts have been going for me the past month, it feels like it won't be losing me an entire season even if he is a miss there. Not when I can be using the other draft capitol to still land 2 top 12 WRs, a top 4 TE, another WR2, and a top 6 QB to fill out the rest of the roster avoiding all the other upper RB prospects who to me have just as many, if not more, red flags than Achane. And a ceiling that is maybe 20% of Achanes.

I think this is a good rationale. If you use an early pick on Achane, you need to build your team this way. If the rest of your RB stable is unreliable, your team will be sunk if Achane gets a significant injury.

I am able to keep him in my auction league for well under value, so I am not going out of my way to get him in my redrafts.

Yeah if this was a year where those RBs I called out were all valued 4-6th round guys, I wouldn't be nearly as high ownership on Achane. But when I can fill out a bench in the middle rounds with starting RBs who have little competition and years of history of showing they can finish as RB2/3 guys putting up consistent, albeit not flashy, stat lines.... that changes things. It also helps that for whatever reasons TE values are in the gutter right now so you can grab Andrews/McBridge late 4th/early 5th. The options for filling out a roster feel so much broader to me than they have in years past, and it screams that I should be taking a bit more risk early on to get ahead of the pack early in the season. Read an article recently detailing your odds of making a championship starting out 3-1 as opposed to 1-3 and it's startling to say the least. I've been shifting from building a team to get hot down the stretch and more towards coming out the gate hot instead. It makes sense as it just gives you so many more options as the season progresses playing from a lead rather than scrambling.

What this also means is if you are doing "hero RB" -- an RB in the first or second round and then no more for a while -- Achane is not the guy to do that with.

I think that is what I'm doing lol, and doing it with Achane universally unless he goes earlier than late 2nd (other than if I have 1.01 and obv. take CMAC, and then I'm passing on Achane). I don't think I've once taken any RB between those two. If I don't have 1.01 and don't get Achane I've been grabbing Pacheco if he's there, or if not, Rachaad White late 3rd as back stops. Really been out on most of the consensus top RBs at their current values tbh.

 

[Jamesinaz]

If the fish had garbage/plodders behind Mostert and Achane I'd say DA is a league winner barring injury to him. But..... I don't like the fact he also has Wright in the picture who is larger and almost as fast. They have 3 guys all capable of breaking a long run and catching the ball - I think. So those thinking 32 year old Mostert won't last and DA then becomes a bell cow - i dunno. Any comments on how Wright might factor in? He is larger and younger. Could be the goal line vulture.