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How to value Johnathan Stewart? (1 Viewer)

F

footballsavvy

Footballguy
My dynasty league is a little different in that we use a league currency and up to 5 year contracts. Due to some initial carryover rules the following players are avialable in the restricted free agent auction this off season:

Chris Johnson, Ray rice, Mendenhall, J. Stewart, McFadden, Forte, Matt Ryan, Desean Jackson, and other lesser players.

Since I own Chris Johnson I will franchise him and get to keep him fairly cheap. Aside from that I have a substantial amount of league currency and can get at least one other back - though not quite enough to get both Johnson and Ray Rice.

My Choice seems to be coming down to Mendenhall vs Strewart in a ppr league.

Mendenhall is easier to value, sort of. At this point he has little competition for carries and might even have a substantial role in the passing game. While he did not produce stud numbers this year, he did enough to make you think his ceiling could be decently high. However, his style of running reminds you that his floor is pretty low as well.

Stewart on the other hand, seems like a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He seems to run angry and hard. But there are several issues with Stewart. 1. His Achilles heel - literally, 2. He shares carries, 3. He doesn't get many receptions at all.

If I put a maximum 5 yr contract on him, then when should I reasonably expect DeAngelo to be gone, if ever? And if he does get traded or let go in free agency, will they still run a platoon with Goodson? In a PPR league, with someone who doesn't get a lot of receptions I really need a RB that gets 20 carries per week to produce with the top 10.

Speaking of his low reception totals... can, or will, Stewart ever be used in the passing game? I mean, I know he will get that random dump off - but I mean will he ever get more than say 24 receptions in a season - or is he just one of those backs that strictly a runner (ie Turner).

Last but not least - whats up with his nagging heel injury, and will he continue to be able to play through it?

 
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I can't see Carolina keeping Williams after this season because it is too costly to pay 2 RBs starter dollars, but there are no guarantees. The day Williams is gone, Stewart moves in or near the top 5 RBs. I also think Stewart has good enough skills to be a solid receiving RB. They won't use a platoon after Williams leaves unless they have another stud RB on the roster. I'm not worried about his injury history. He has not missed an NFL game and I think the injury prone label Stewart gets is ridiculous.

Basically, everything depends on how long Williams is here, but for dynasty, I'd be all over him in all leagues. He is one of the 5 most talented RBs in the league in my opinion. Not to mention he has not even hit 23 years old yet. I think his combination of size, speed, and elusiveness are elite.

 
If Dwill goes which it looks like he will ( I have heard SD has interest ) Stewarts Value is bottom to even middle round 1.

 
The Moz said:
If Dwill goes which it looks like he will ( I have heard SD has interest ) Stewarts Value is bottom to even middle round 1.
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Williams WILL NOT get traded. Talk show hosts, bloggers, FF message boards like to speculate about this, but Carolina won't get back what they would want. Williams salary for 2010 is very low for a back of his caliber, they need a strong running game (especially if they go with Moore next year @QB), and Stewart hasn't proven that he is durable enough to carry the load for an entire season.
 
The Moz said:
If Dwill goes which it looks like he will ( I have heard SD has interest ) Stewarts Value is bottom to even middle round 1.
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From everything I've read by homers on this site and elsewhere, Deangelo isn't going anywhere.Do you have links stating Carolina will move him?
 
Anthony Borbely said:
I can't see Carolina keeping Williams after this season because it is too costly to pay 2 RBs starter dollars, but there are no guarantees. The day Williams is gone, Stewart moves in or near the top 5 RBs. I also think Stewart has good enough skills to be a solid receiving RB. They won't use a platoon after Williams leaves unless they have another stud RB on the roster. I'm not worried about his injury history. He has not missed an NFL game and I think the injury prone label Stewart gets is ridiculous. Basically, everything depends on how long Williams is here, but for dynasty, I'd be all over him in all leagues. He is one of the 5 most talented RBs in the league in my opinion. Not to mention he has not even hit 23 years old yet. I think his combination of size, speed, and elusiveness are elite.
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Not doubting Stewarts talent one bit. I am very curious as to what will happen to DeAngelo in 2011. First of all, DeAngelo will be 28 years old. The market for 28 year old RBs is likely to be very soft. My guess is he and his agent know this and are going to try to get a deal done this offseason with Carolina. Thomas Jones' deal he signed at 29 years old could be a comp. 4 years 20 million. If CAR front loads it a bit in the uncapped year, it should be very manageable to pay both him and Stewart. Even if it goes into 2011, how many teams actually need RBs on a year to year basis? There's a constant supply of them in the draft that are younger and cheaper. I'd guess a significant percentage of teams have already decided they will not sign an aging RB to a long term deal. For every Thomas Jones, there's many more Ahman Greens', Shaun Alexanders' and Edgerrin James' out there.
 
High risk high reward...in draft situations that pay off these types of players, take him.

For example, would love to take him in FBG subscriber contest, but would hate to take him in a 10 person survivor.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Stewart might never be anything more than a career backup, ala C. Buckhalter..

he's not as good as D. Williams.
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:) That is really really ummm, not smart. He might not be as good as DeAngleo, who I consider one of the best 5 RBs in the league, but he's not far behind him. He's not a backup, he's a stud, and the Panthers have 2 starting RBs.
 
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Thanks for the replies. In my mind, even if he was the only running back there I have a hard time granting him top 5 status until I see it. In a PPR league you would have to put up in the neighbrohood of 1700 yards plus a solid amount of TD's just to match someone like Frank Gore or Steven Jackson. That would be quite a feat, but surely not impossible on that team.

So an important question I have always had when comparing runnings backs in PPR is this... is it more risky to pick a RB that needs a ton of yards and TD's to crack the top 5 over a RB that needs a combination of receptions and rushing yards to crack the top 5.

A good exmaple would be comparing Ray Rice to someone like Stewart (with no deAngelo). Is Ray Rice the safer pick since it would seem a lot easier for him to continue to get his 5 to 7 receptions per game (since its part of their system) than it is for Stewart to put up 1700 yds and 15 TDs. Michael Turner in 2008 is another example. It took him 1700 yds and 17 TDs to crack the top 5, but he was flanked in the rankings on either side by Forte and Westbrook who did it with much less of a "storybook" type of season.

To me it seems much safer to go with a running back that "gets a lot of receptions" since those receptions are typically the product of a system, as opposed to a RB that needs to average 5.8 YPC and get 16 TDs to score the same amount of fantasy points.

 
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This is the time to get Stewart. He'll produce at a RB2 level this year while splitting, and if DWill is gone next year, you have a possible top 5 RB for years to come.

 
footballsavvy said:
Thanks for the replies. In my mind, even if he was the only running back there I have a hard time granting him top 5 status until I see it. In a PPR league you would have to put up in the neighbrohood of 1700 yards plus a solid amount of TD's just to match someone like Frank Gore or Steven Jackson. That would be quite a feat, but surely not impossible on that team.So an important question I have always had when comparing runnings backs in PPR is this... is it more risky to pick a RB that needs a ton of yards and TD's to crack the top 5 over a RB that needs a combination of receptions and rushing yards to crack the top 5. A good exmaple would be comparing Ray Rice to someone like Stewart (with no deAngelo). Is Ray Rice the safer pick since it would seem a lot easier for him to continue to get his 5 to 7 receptions per game (since its part of their system) than it is for Stewart to put up 1700 yds and 15 TDs. Michael Turner in 2008 is another example. It took him 1700 yds and 17 TDs to crack the top 5, but he was flanked in the rankings on either side by Forte and Westbrook who did it with much less of a "storybook" type of season.To me it seems much safer to go with a running back that "gets a lot of receptions" since those receptions are typically the product of a system, as opposed to a RB that needs to average 5.8 YPC and get 16 TDs to score the same amount of fantasy points.
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Well, who do you like as top 5 ppr RBs?CJMJDRicePeterson???Gore and S.Jackson are in the conversation at this point. Turner? D.Williams on another team? Charles? Spiller/Best?Regarding Mendy vs Stewart, it is not close. Mendy is a capable RB, Stewart is a very strong RB. In ppr, Stewart scored about 5 fewer points than Mendy... all while running with an ailing Achilles and getting RB2 touches.Stewart as the lead back is a stud. 2010, sharing with Williams, he is simply good. 2011? Stud.
 
I'm assuming you mean that it is not even close between Mendenhall and Stewart if you assume DeAngelo is already gone. I realize that much. But DeAngelos presence is a factor and I am trying to weight it.

Also, Mendenhall's season this year is a little bit deceiving. Once he "became the go to guy" he ran at nearly a 1400 yard per season pace. Combine this with the fact that the coaches decided to move him into a 3rd down role as well (late in the year) and you could end up with a top 5 season next year. I know this sounds far fetched, but opportunity (for better of for worse) means more than talent when it comes to fantasy football. If Mendenhall is getting 300 carries and 45 receptions next year it wont take a very big yard-per-touch average, or a ton of TD's to crack the top 5.

I'm not trying to make this a "Mendenhall is better than Stewart" debate, but rather a discussion on all of the various factors that should be weighed... and how much to weigh them.

Perhaps the perceived boom or bust nature of NFL fantasy running backs has more to do with out overall lack of realistic analysis, rather than the running backs unpredictalbe "nature".

 
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footballsavvy said:
I'm assuming you mean that it is not even close between Mendenhall and Stewart if you assume DeAngelo is already gone. I realize that much. But DeAngelos presence is a factor and I am trying to weight it.Also, Mendenhall's season this year is a little bit deceiving. Once he "became the go to guy" he ran at nearly a 1400 yard per season pace. Combine this with the fact that the coaches decided to move him into a 3rd down role as well (late in the year) and you could end up with a top 5 season next year. I know this sounds far fetched, but opportunity (for better of for worse) means more than talent when it comes to fantasy football. If Mendenhall is getting 300 carries and 45 receptions next year it wont take a very big yard-per-touch average, or a ton of TD's to crack the top 5. I'm not trying to make this a "Mendenhall is better than Stewart" debate, but rather a discussion on all of the various factors that should be weighed... and how much to weigh them.Perhaps the perceived boom or bust nature of NFL fantasy running backs has more to do with out overall lack of realistic analysis, rather than the running backs unpredictalbe "nature".
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Keeping Stewart over Mendy, what do you lose? At worst, IMO, you have a fantasy RB2 (Stewart in a timeshare) instead of a low end fantasy RB1 (Mendy), and this is very likely only for 1 season. Then Stewart >>>> Mendy.I believe Mendy is a tier two or three talent and Stewart is a tier one talent. There is not enough of a variance in year one to make up for the next four years that Stewart will be much, much better, imo.ETA: It would be a much more difficult decision if you were deciding between a Gore/Jackson/Turner and Stewart. I just believe they are much more talented than Mendy. Mendy is solid, but has nowhere near the upside to be worth deciding between him and Stewart, imo.
 
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Your best bet may be to take Stewart and then trade him away. Even with his foot surgery, people are valuing him tradewise just outside the top 5-8rb's. That's great if he's the nominal starter, but he's not. If DeAngelo goes away and Stewart becomes starter, he could be top 5 worthy. Even if that happens, he'll still be sharing carries with another back. That has been Carolina's MO since Fox came aboard. First it was Davis and Foster, then Foster and Williams and now Williams and Stewart. Carolina has a couple of good backs on it's roster and they're a run first team. They need multiple backs to keep each other fresh.

 
Just wondering...everybody always talks about 2011 for Stewart...Carolina doesn't have any up and coming receivers, and they are built to run. Why do we assume that they don't resign DeAngelo?

 
Instinctive said:
Just wondering...everybody always talks about 2011 for Stewart...Carolina doesn't have any up and coming receivers, and they are built to run. Why do we assume that they don't resign DeAngelo?
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Depends on what kind of contract he's looking for. If he's looking to get "paid", he won't be with Carolina. If he's looking for a decent contract that's not totally out of whack, he may get re-signed. As his rookie contract is in it's final year and still very manageable, I see him staying in Carolina next year. After that, it totally depends on how much he's seeking.For the DeAngelo fans: http://www.wcnc.com/sports/football/DeAnge...d-82548137.html

 
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