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How's your housing market? (2 Viewers)

tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
this is because you do not see the wealth coming in here.when someone sells their home in SoCal and has $400k in equity, when they see a house they like they will pay what they want to get it as they are not constrained by income.Phoenix is experiencing phenomenal growth and while i expect prices to slightly decline and/or stabilize over the next couple years, within 5 years they will be significantly higher.we aren't talking $1,000 per foot like in NY or $800 per foot in SoCal. the nicest parts of phoenix are in the $200-$400 per foot range for most typical homes now.for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US, the relative affordability is amazing. you add to that the huge retiring baby boomer segment that wants to retire and would rather come to AZ than FL to not deal with hurricanes, PHX is in a real nice spot.
 
tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
this is because you do not see the wealth coming in here.when someone sells their home in SoCal and has $400k in equity, when they see a house they like they will pay what they want to get it as they are not constrained by income.Phoenix is experiencing phenomenal growth and while i expect prices to slightly decline and/or stabilize over the next couple years, within 5 years they will be significantly higher.we aren't talking $1,000 per foot like in NY or $800 per foot in SoCal. the nicest parts of phoenix are in the $200-$400 per foot range for most typical homes now.for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US, the relative affordability is amazing. you add to that the huge retiring baby boomer segment that wants to retire and would rather come to AZ than FL to not deal with hurricanes, PHX is in a real nice spot.
I agree 100%. My only reservation is the whether we'll see a continuation of what has happened the past 5-6 years. The equity cashouts from CA are going to deline significantly, which as you've identified is a factor in Phoenix's recent growth. With all of the inventory on the market (as well as the brand new vacant homes that don't show up on MLS), building is obviously going to slow down, and that means job losses in contruction. Not to mention all of the RE agents, mortgage brokers, and other industry related jobs that contract when RE slows down.My buddy (Stingdiddy) is moving back to Phoenix so I'm hoping that I'm wrong and that you, Stinger, and LHUCKS all make good. I just can't help but believe that a big correction is in order. :cry:
 
tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
this is because you do not see the wealth coming in here.when someone sells their home in SoCal and has $400k in equity, when they see a house they like they will pay what they want to get it as they are not constrained by income.Phoenix is experiencing phenomenal growth and while i expect prices to slightly decline and/or stabilize over the next couple years, within 5 years they will be significantly higher.we aren't talking $1,000 per foot like in NY or $800 per foot in SoCal. the nicest parts of phoenix are in the $200-$400 per foot range for most typical homes now.for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US, the relative affordability is amazing. you add to that the huge retiring baby boomer segment that wants to retire and would rather come to AZ than FL to not deal with hurricanes, PHX is in a real nice spot.
I agree 100%. My only reservation is the whether we'll see a continuation of what has happened the past 5-6 years. The equity cashouts from CA are going to deline significantly, which as you've identified is a factor in Phoenix's recent growth. With all of the inventory on the market (as well as the brand new vacant homes that don't show up on MLS), building is obviously going to slow down, and that means job losses in contruction. Not to mention all of the RE agents, mortgage brokers, and other industry related jobs that contract when RE slows down.My buddy (Stingdiddy) is moving back to Phoenix so I'm hoping that I'm wrong and that you, Stinger, and LHUCKS all make good. I just can't help but believe that a big correction is in order. :shrug:
Hey TG,I think I posted this a few pages back but it will bear repeating. Right now if you live in SoCal, forget about what is going on in the rest of the country...just focus on SoCal and specifically SD where you live. You have shown us where foreclosures have almost doubled in the past 12 months, yes or no? If the foreclosures doubled that's an increase of almost 100%, right? So how much more of a correction do you need? There are masses of asses ready to take those foreclosed upon homes. Please do not be delusional in thinking that home prices are going to fall back to 1999, 2000, or even 2003 for that matter. Home prices have dropped back to about 2005 levels at the moment and in some areas they are not really falling at all, just staying level. If the increases in many places was a 30% average a year for about 4-5 years and suddenly that stops...that is a correction TG...it's not the correction you are desiring because the home prices are not dropping through the floor. Another thing you need to realize is that not everyone used their home as an ATM and those people can sit and wait and eventually get what they want for their homes. They are not in a weak position. The people in a weak position bought their homes in 2005/2006 and are trying to refinance out of that zero down 80% 1st at 6.5%, 20% 2nd at 12% and finding there isn't enough equity to really do much...that is where the foreclosures are coming in. But eventually the more financially stable folks are going to buy those homes up. There is no shortage of people. TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000. I know that is what you are hoping for but it is not reality. You must live in reality TG. You need to make sure your credit is strong, that is the best thing you can do. All the finance options will be on the table. I know you want to pay a bunch of things off b4 you plunge into the home market but the next 6-12 month will probably be your best opp to buy a home before the next surge. And there will be another massive surge down the road. Homes you cannot believe are $500,000...in 5 years you won't believe how those same homes are selling for $650-$700,000, and that's the reality of SoCal.There was a major dip in the early 90s around here...we are not in that kind of market right now...especially with rates expected to stay low for the forseeable future.
 
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Hey TG,I think I posted this a few pages back but it will bear repeating. Right now if you live in SoCal, forget about what is going on in the rest of the country...just focus on SoCal and specifically SD where you live. You have shown us where foreclosures have almost doubled in the past 12 months, yes or no? If the foreclosures doubled that's an increase of almost 100%, right? So how much more of a correction do you need? There are masses of asses ready to take those foreclosed upon homes.
Gotta disagree with you here gb. We're at an all time high in home ownership. The masses have already bought, as the creative financing of the past few years allowed anyone with a pulse to get a 100% no doc loan regardless of credit. It was fine as long as prices were rising; even the dummies who bought more than they can reasonably afford were rewarded by the astronomical gains. That game is up. Foreclosures and inventory are through the roof. Just as the market frenzy drove home prices far above what any analysts anticipated, the rush to get out of the door before your neighbor sells will drive home prices back down. I may be completely missing the boat, but I don't believe a 150% increase in value over 6 years followed by a 5-10% reduction over 1 year is the extent of this correction. It's the tip of the iceberg, not the bottom, IMO.
 
TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000.
But there are more people leaving San Diego than moving in these days, in large part due to the price of real estate. And there "was no place to build" in 1998 either, when prices were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now.I look at the typical 2br/2bth condo, 1100 sq ft. The sales history is something like this: sold in 2000 for 240k, sold in 2004 for 430k, now on the market for 445k.

Am I really supposed to believe that with 20k homes on the market, sales a third of what they've been, and foreclosures exploding, that prices don't have far to fall?

Look at this chart, and notice the 1181 notices of default last month. A quick review of the entire page shows that only one month since 1991 have there been more notices of default issued (March, 1993). And we're just getting started, as the popularity of 100% financing peaked in '04 and '05, meaning those resets are still on the way.

I predict in 3-5 years, after we see a huge correction, it will be very easy to review the data and say "it was pretty obvious".

 
tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US,
Pretty sure we're 5th now.
 
tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US,
Pretty sure we're 5th now.
that may be true i was estimating about where we were, but with all the growth 5th sounds right.
 
tommyGunZ said:
LHUCKS said:
I would have no problem selling my house at the next market peak and renting for a year if I though it would save me 50K...most people will never do that.
If you were to graph median home prices in the Phoenix area over the last 50 years, I think you'd be surprised at where prices are now in comparison to the all time peak. I am extremely surprised that folks expect the greatest 7-8 year run in the history of US real estate to endure only a slight, blip on the radar correction. I'm baffled by the fact that real wages have only slightly increased over the past 6 years, while home prices have more than doubled in San Diego and Phoenix. It's unsustainable, IMO.
for phoenix being the 7th largest city in the US,
Pretty sure we're 5th now.
that may be true i was estimating about where we were, but with all the growth 5th sounds right.
Estimated as 6th, 2,000 people behind Philly in 2005. I'm pretty sure we made up that 2,000 person difference, well, yesterday.
 
From today's AZ Republic

More pain ahead predicted for Valley real estate

By Glen Creno

The Arizona Republic

Jan. 9, 2007 01:49 PM

More than 800 people registered for the Urban Land Institute's real estate trends conference, going on today in downtown Phoenix.

It attracted a variety of real estate professionals - residential specialists, commercial brokers, investment experts - all looking at perspective on the local market. The session kicked off with an economic backgrounder in which analysts provided took a look at the new year and weighed in on where the market may be heading.

Doug Poutasse, chief investment strategist for AEW Capital Management, said the big national question is what kind of landing the economy is headed for. advertisement

"We're all hoping for the magic soft landing," he said.

But he also noted that the "free lunch" - the fast rising home values as compared to mortgage payments - in residential real estate is over.

Elliot Pollack, a Scottsdale economist, said Phoenix-area homebuilding still faces struggles this year as the business tries to compensate for overproduction. One warning sign for the economy: the decrease in home building permits will eventually shake out in lower production, affecting the key construction side of the economy. He also said housing affordability is becoming a more pressing concern.

HOUSING

One of the big questions on people's minds at the ULI conference is what's next for Phoenix housing. A panel that included a top land broker and some building executives agree one one thing: There's more pain ahead before the market bottoms.

The experts say they are facing an array of challenges, among them: delivering new homes with interesting designs while facing cost challenges, higher impact fees from outlying cities and clearing inventory of existing homes.

Several people on the panel, including Greg Vogel of Arizona Land Advisors, and moderator Tim Sullivan, a California-based analyst who has a Valley office, think the bottom will come in May or July, before the second half of the year. Assumptions about the market also will change as people adjust to the new, slower, pace of the new-home market.

"What we saw (in the boom), we'll never see again in our lifetimes," said Steve Hilton, chief executive of Scottsdale-based Meritage Homes.

Home will still appreciate, but at a pace of something like 3 to 5 percent a year, Hilton said. That's a big drop from gains in the area of 40 percent seen in the boom years of late 2004 and in 2005.

Another trend: look for the widespread incentives that builders are handing out for unsold homes now to disappear as they cycle back into normal production. Reason: they don't want to lose money.

 
TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000.
But there are more people leaving San Diego than moving in these days, in large part due to the price of real estate. And there "was no place to build" in 1998 either, when prices were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now.I look at the typical 2br/2bth condo, 1100 sq ft. The sales history is something like this: sold in 2000 for 240k, sold in 2004 for 430k, now on the market for 445k.

Am I really supposed to believe that with 20k homes on the market, sales a third of what they've been, and foreclosures exploding, that prices don't have far to fall?

Look at this chart, and notice the 1181 notices of default last month. A quick review of the entire page shows that only one month since 1991 have there been more notices of default issued (March, 1993). And we're just getting started, as the popularity of 100% financing peaked in '04 and '05, meaning those resets are still on the way.

I predict in 3-5 years, after we see a huge correction, it will be very easy to review the data and say "it was pretty obvious".
That's what people were saying 3-5 years ago TG, meanwhile people have made a fortune the past 3-5 years.I'm not saying that the homes couldn't use a little fallback but I really think you believe there is going to be a bottom falling out of the market...nothing is suggesting that. Maybe if 30 year fixed rates move to about 8% but that is not happening.

Average home is about $500,000. That's roughly a $3,500 mortgage payment, or about $2,500-$2,800 after tax deductions. What are nice 2 bedroom apartments renting for? $1,500-$2,000+ so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch for more folks to buy homes. $3,500/40% DTI...People only need to be making about $10,000 a month combined before taxes out here...lots and lots and lots of married people are making that out here in SoCal...there really isn't an end to the amount of buyers but many are ina comfort zone right now and staying put...eventually they are going to jump into the market.

 
TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000.
But there are more people leaving San Diego than moving in these days, in large part due to the price of real estate. And there "was no place to build" in 1998 either, when prices were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now.I look at the typical 2br/2bth condo, 1100 sq ft. The sales history is something like this: sold in 2000 for 240k, sold in 2004 for 430k, now on the market for 445k.

Am I really supposed to believe that with 20k homes on the market, sales a third of what they've been, and foreclosures exploding, that prices don't have far to fall?

Look at this chart, and notice the 1181 notices of default last month. A quick review of the entire page shows that only one month since 1991 have there been more notices of default issued (March, 1993). And we're just getting started, as the popularity of 100% financing peaked in '04 and '05, meaning those resets are still on the way.

I predict in 3-5 years, after we see a huge correction, it will be very easy to review the data and say "it was pretty obvious".
That's what people were saying 3-5 years ago TG, meanwhile people have made a fortune the past 3-5 years.I'm not saying that the homes couldn't use a little fallback but I really think you believe there is going to be a bottom falling out of the market...nothing is suggesting that. Maybe if 30 year fixed rates move to about 8% but that is not happening.

Average home is about $500,000. That's roughly a $3,500 mortgage payment, or about $2,500-$2,800 after tax deductions. What are nice 2 bedroom apartments renting for? $1,500-$2,000+ so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch for more folks to buy homes. $3,500/40% DTI...People only need to be making about $10,000 a month combined before taxes out here...lots and lots and lots of married people are making that out here in SoCal...there really isn't an end to the amount of buyers but many are ina comfort zone right now and staying put...eventually they are going to jump into the market.
Why would I buy a home and pay a 3500 mortgage when I can rent the same home for 1750?
 
Average home is about $500,000. That's roughly a $3,500 mortgage payment, or about $2,500-$2,800 after tax deductions. What are nice 2 bedroom apartments renting for? $1,500-$2,000+ so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch for more folks to buy homes. $3,500/40% DTI...People only need to be making about $10,000 a month combined before taxes out here...lots and lots and lots of married people are making that out here in SoCal...there really isn't an end to the amount of buyers but many are ina comfort zone right now and staying put...eventually they are going to jump into the market.
This is EXACTLY why the housing market in SoCal has to correct. To buy the average house (500k) the combined average income needs to be 120k+ without any other debt.The average combined family income in San Diego is 60k, and I can assure you that the average family is carrying debt, beit credit cards, school loans, car payments, etc.The numbers just don't make sense MOP.
 
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I watched one of those home price shows last night and it was a new episode, so hopefully pretty accurate. They showed Missoula, Montana and I was shocked at the prices. They mentioned that lots of people were moving out there, and while true the prices were higher than they are in Charlotte and about the same as where I moved from in Northern VA (outside DC). I am out in the suburbs and was in VA, not downtown prices which can be much higher.

It just shocked me to see a 4000 sq ft 5 bedroom, 3 bath house for 750k in Montana or a 1100 sq ft 1 bathroom house mentioned close to 300k. I don't know anything about Missoula, but seems like there would be enough land to not have $200-300 per sq foot pricing. That's about the area of what I sold my last house for in the fastest growing county in the United States (not sure the exact period, I think it was 2000-2005). That county also had well over 100k in population so not one of those high growth-really small counties.

All the prices were "estimates", so not sure if they are based in reality or not. Anybody know?

 
TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000.
But there are more people leaving San Diego than moving in these days, in large part due to the price of real estate. And there "was no place to build" in 1998 either, when prices were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now.I look at the typical 2br/2bth condo, 1100 sq ft. The sales history is something like this: sold in 2000 for 240k, sold in 2004 for 430k, now on the market for 445k.

Am I really supposed to believe that with 20k homes on the market, sales a third of what they've been, and foreclosures exploding, that prices don't have far to fall?

Look at this chart, and notice the 1181 notices of default last month. A quick review of the entire page shows that only one month since 1991 have there been more notices of default issued (March, 1993). And we're just getting started, as the popularity of 100% financing peaked in '04 and '05, meaning those resets are still on the way.

I predict in 3-5 years, after we see a huge correction, it will be very easy to review the data and say "it was pretty obvious".
That's what people were saying 3-5 years ago TG, meanwhile people have made a fortune the past 3-5 years.I'm not saying that the homes couldn't use a little fallback but I really think you believe there is going to be a bottom falling out of the market...nothing is suggesting that. Maybe if 30 year fixed rates move to about 8% but that is not happening.

Average home is about $500,000. That's roughly a $3,500 mortgage payment, or about $2,500-$2,800 after tax deductions. What are nice 2 bedroom apartments renting for? $1,500-$2,000+ so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch for more folks to buy homes. $3,500/40% DTI...People only need to be making about $10,000 a month combined before taxes out here...lots and lots and lots of married people are making that out here in SoCal...there really isn't an end to the amount of buyers but many are ina comfort zone right now and staying put...eventually they are going to jump into the market.
Why would I buy a home and pay a 3500 mortgage when I can rent the same home for 1750?
It's been widely rumored though never truly proven that MOP is bad at math...I take great exception to this as I did score a 760 on that part of the SAT..however my pizza mantra has put me in this boat...until TommyGunz threw me a life preserver. Let's see if MOP at least understands the rules of money through this exercise.$3,500= PITI on a property of $500,000 with no money down. $500,000 homes I imagine in SD are in decent neighborhoods...maybe not the best but decent. You get to write off some of this at the end of the year TG...so the real payment is more like $2,800 let's say. And you can't rent a SFR for much less than $2,000...that's a spread of $800 a month or $9,600 a year...let's round to $10,000.

So you are spending $10,000 a year more than if you rent...let's say you rent that home for 5 years...that's $50,000. Now in the last 5 years TG have most people who bought homes for $250,000...then watched them jump up to $450,000...did those people make up for that $50,000 extra they paid over those 5 years? The answer is clearly yes. Even if you think the $500,000 home you buy now will only go up $100,000 or a total of 20% over the next 5 years avg only 4% a year you still are doubling every extra dollar you are paying out to own a home.

(Thunderous applause from the board)

 
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TG, if this were Buffalo, a town I do have propertys in, if it were Buffalo where people are still leaving and the population is not increasing, then you might be on to something. But there are millions of people here and more keep coming in...there is no place to build, so the homes might fall slightly but homes that peaked at $500,000 are not going to crash back down to $300,000.
But there are more people leaving San Diego than moving in these days, in large part due to the price of real estate. And there "was no place to build" in 1998 either, when prices were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now.I look at the typical 2br/2bth condo, 1100 sq ft. The sales history is something like this: sold in 2000 for 240k, sold in 2004 for 430k, now on the market for 445k.

Am I really supposed to believe that with 20k homes on the market, sales a third of what they've been, and foreclosures exploding, that prices don't have far to fall?

Look at this chart, and notice the 1181 notices of default last month. A quick review of the entire page shows that only one month since 1991 have there been more notices of default issued (March, 1993). And we're just getting started, as the popularity of 100% financing peaked in '04 and '05, meaning those resets are still on the way.

I predict in 3-5 years, after we see a huge correction, it will be very easy to review the data and say "it was pretty obvious".
That's what people were saying 3-5 years ago TG, meanwhile people have made a fortune the past 3-5 years.I'm not saying that the homes couldn't use a little fallback but I really think you believe there is going to be a bottom falling out of the market...nothing is suggesting that. Maybe if 30 year fixed rates move to about 8% but that is not happening.

Average home is about $500,000. That's roughly a $3,500 mortgage payment, or about $2,500-$2,800 after tax deductions. What are nice 2 bedroom apartments renting for? $1,500-$2,000+ so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch for more folks to buy homes. $3,500/40% DTI...People only need to be making about $10,000 a month combined before taxes out here...lots and lots and lots of married people are making that out here in SoCal...there really isn't an end to the amount of buyers but many are ina comfort zone right now and staying put...eventually they are going to jump into the market.
Why would I buy a home and pay a 3500 mortgage when I can rent the same home for 1750?
It's been widely rumored though never truly proven that MOP is bad at math...I take great exception to this as I did score a 760 on that part of the SAT..however my pizza mantra has put me in this boat...until TommyGunz threw me a life preserver. Let's see if MOP at least understands the rules of money through this exercise.$3,500= PITI on a property of $500,000 with no money down. $500,000 homes I imagine in SD are in decent neighborhoods...maybe not the best but decent. You get to write off some of this at the end of the year TG...so the real payment is more like $2,800 let's say. And you can't rent a SFR for much less than $2,000...that's a spread of $800 a month or $9,600 a year...let's round to $10,000.

So you are spending $10,000 a year more than if you rent...let's say you rent that home for 5 years...that's $50,000. Now in the last 5 years TG have most people who bought homes for $250,000...then watched them jump up to $450,000...did those people make up for that $50,000 extra they paid over those 5 years? The answer is clearly yes. Even if you think the $500,000 home you buy now will only go up $100,000 or a total of 20% over the next 5 years avg only 4% a year you still are doubling every extra dollar you are paying out to own a home.

(Thunderous applause from the board)
You're forgetting a few things MOP:1) The time value of the 10k I'm saving per year. If I invest that $, I'm making anywhere from 6-12%, which after 5 years becomes an additional 10-15k.

2) Other costs associated with owning. HOA fees, maintenance, etc.

3) Last, but by far the most important, is that I do not believe that after the greatest 8 year run in the history of SoCal real estate, a modest 1 year, 10% decline is the extent of the correction. The numbers just don't make sense. Look at historical real estate figures on a graph. Housing ALWAYS corrects back to levels where rents = mortgages. Otherwise, why would anyone invest in rental properties?

Since I feel strongly that the 2006 slowdown is the beginning of the correction, and not the bottom as many here are calling, it makes no sense for me to enter the market right now, especially when I can rent the exact same property for 1/2 of what the mortgage would cost.

MOP - I urge you to read these two articles: Evidence of a CA Housing Bubble and Risks of a Serious Home Price Decline. They may not convince you that SoCal homes are overpriced, but you'll at least gain an understanding of my position.

And I'm sure you love graphs as much as I do. :loco:

 
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I watched one of those home price shows last night and it was a new episode, so hopefully pretty accurate. They showed Missoula, Montana and I was shocked at the prices. They mentioned that lots of people were moving out there, and while true the prices were higher than they are in Charlotte and about the same as where I moved from in Northern VA (outside DC). I am out in the suburbs and was in VA, not downtown prices which can be much higher.It just shocked me to see a 4000 sq ft 5 bedroom, 3 bath house for 750k in Montana or a 1100 sq ft 1 bathroom house mentioned close to 300k. I don't know anything about Missoula, but seems like there would be enough land to not have $200-300 per sq foot pricing. That's about the area of what I sold my last house for in the fastest growing county in the United States (not sure the exact period, I think it was 2000-2005). That county also had well over 100k in population so not one of those high growth-really small counties.All the prices were "estimates", so not sure if they are based in reality or not. Anybody know?
That sounds like it could be right, assuming they're nice houses. These small to mid-size Western places are nuts. Trust me. I live in one of them.
 
My mother is thinking about buying another house to use a rental property in LA (San Fernando / San Gabriel Valley). I'm not sure on the finances but she thinks she can gain equity and use it as an investment vehicle.

Obviously I'm concerned that the prices will fall and she'll be in debt more than the house is worth and not making it up in rental income. I've told her to wait a little bit on this.

 
more good news coming out of the phoenix area...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16580658/from/ET/

Valley home prices climb despite drop in sales

By Misty Williams, Tribune

East Valley Tribune

Jan. 11

Home prices continued to climb in many areas throughout the Valley in 2006, even as home sales plunged from 2005's record heights. Some 67,035 sales of existing homes were recorded in 2006, a 39.5 percent drop from the year before, according to a report released Wednesday by Arizona State University's Realty Studies department.

Meanwhile, the median price of a resale home hit $260,600, up 8.4 percent from the previous year.

After flooding the market and driving up prices in recent years, investors now trying to unload properties likely contributed significantly to the market slowdown, Realty Studies director Jay Butler said.

"People would like to see that hypermarket come back but realize it's not going to," Butler said.

Still, industry observers are optimistic about 2007.

Home prices are expected to rise 3 percent to 5 percent this year, and sales should pick up in the spring, Scottsdale real estate agent John Wake said.

Wake said he believes buyers also will jump back into the market after sitting on the sidelines for fear of prices falling.

"A lot of people are just waiting to know the bottom has hit," he said.

The supply of new homes on the market also has peaked and is heading down, Wake said. That means buyers will likely see fewer of the wild home discounts offered by builders in recent months, he said.

Existing-home inventory has also inched downward in recent months, said Robert Rucker, CEO of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.

Roughly 43,140 homes are on the market, down from a peak of about 48,000 a few months ago.

Inventory will likely continue going down in 2007 and reach a more normal level of 30,000 to 35,000 listings, he said.

Despite a leveling off, 2006 was still the fourth-best resale market on record, falling between 2002 with 62,625 sales and 2003 with 73,785 sales.

The market is slightly below historical norms, but it should start to pick up in the spring, Butler said. Some areas are seeing declining prices, and foreclosures are expected to rise this year. Many of the homes facing foreclosure will likely belong to investors, Butler said.

"They bought too many. They paid too much," he said. For 2006, 16 percent of recorded resales in the Valley were for homes priced from $125,000 to $199,999, 43 percent for homes in the $200,000 to $299,999 range and 38 percent for homes costing more than $300,000. The record median price of $267,000 was set in June.
 
It's been widely rumored though never truly proven that MOP is bad at math...I take great exception to this as I did score a 760 on that part of the SAT.
It was proven. You were completely incapable of calculating the area of a circle. Thus your claim of a 760 on the SAT math section is serious doubt.
 
It's been widely rumored though never truly proven that MOP is bad at math...I take great exception to this as I did score a 760 on that part of the SAT..however my pizza mantra has put me in this boat...

$3,500= PITI on a property of $500,000 with no money down. $500,000 homes I imagine in SD are in decent neighborhoods...maybe not the best but decent. You get to write off some of this at the end of the year TG...so the real payment is more like $2,800 let's say.
Actually, the payment is $2800, with PITI apparently making the difference. That's a first year of mortgage interest of $27,000. If we were to assume he made $100,000 a year, the difference in his tax after the deduction is really only about $5000 (depending on other deductions), so more like $420/month.Good efforts, and all, but shouldn't you be able to figure this stuff out?

 
Food for thought from an article I ran across on MSN Money.

Home-loan house of cards ready to fall

The collapse of the subprime credit market may come this year, with a major subprime lender going broke. The repercussions will haunt us for years.

By Bill Fleckenstein

With all the talking-head babble about our economy being "not too strong, not too weak, but just right," I think it's high time for a new entry into my "Fleckisms." I'm going to call those who take up that cause "Goldilocksters."

An optimistic lot, the Goldilocksters have been deaf to the increasing rumblings emanating from an arena that has powered our economy for the past few years: the housing market -- and specifically the financial dark matter/subprime credit spigot that has fueled its epic rise.

This week brings an update on the deterioration, via comments from two very knowledgeable friends. One of them, a former top executive at a subprime lender (whose chronicling of the unwind has been amazingly accurate and timely), told me that serious issues are developing, and that large companies like New Century Financial (NEW, news, msgs), Accredited Home Lenders (LEND, news, msgs) and NovaStar Financial (NFI, news, msgs) will, in his words, "hit the wall" very soon. He writes:

"We had a loan that was FPD (first-payment default) on a home in So Cal. It is a very nice high-end town that had a section of new homes built . . . in the low end of town. Normal homes sold for $1 million in value. In this new seven-home development, (homes) sold for $1.3 million to $1.5 million each. The homes you had to drive through to get to this place were worth $400,000 to $500,000. The market topped out, and now most of the seven homes are vacant -- worth no more than $900,000. Thus, all the lenders are sitting on losses of $400,000 to $600,000. This is just one of many that are happening daily.

"The commentary I am getting from field and legit brokers is that fraud is an out-of-control locomotive. Stated-income loans are now finished for all the unemployed people around. We will quickly see cash-out loans curtailed. This vicious cycle has yet to play out. We are in the second inning of the unwinding.

"It is really getting serious. We had a borrower in So Cal who cut and pasted bank-statement copies of Washington Mutual to make it look like he had $400,000 average balances in his account to buy a $1.7 million home. Something did not seem right. Lo and behold, we checked very closely with the bank. The borrower had only $500 in his account. This is also just one of many examples happening daily.

"I am truly worried about the aftermath once it is resolved. It truly becomes a vicious cycle. Each time guidelines are pulled back, fewer buyers can buy homes. Thus, lower property values, and more people underwater. The debt piles up on homeowners' balance sheets, and people consume less.

"This will, and should, take years to play out. (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke will yield to the Lobby and the Street, trying once again to lower rates and allow people to bail themselves out, while in turn allowing the buyout firms of the world to overpay for the companies they buy with easy money. The game is so rigged against honesty, it boggles the mind. I worry about our children having a chance to have a future, at this point."

In the beginning, there was financial darkness

I am not as sure as he is that it will take "years" to play out. The damage will last for years, but the crackup that precedes the big damage will happen this year, I think. Meanwhile, the other friend, a broker who deals in the financial dark matter universe, noted that the risky BBB-minus tranche of the June 2002 ABX.HE (a synthetic version of assets backed by U.S. home loans) just traded at a new low -- down more than eight points from early September. (For a review and the key definitions, please see my September column "Voodoo debt and the coming recession.") Its credit-default swap has now blown out to 477 basis points. Although the BBB-minus tranche is just a fraction of the $1 trillion subprime market, it seems impossible to me that a train wreck there will not have ramifications. Here is how this friend described where he thinks we are -- and what comes next:

"The subprime trade continues to evolve. Stage one was the turn in the housing market in July 2005. Ironically, stage two occurred in September 2006, a month after home builder stocks bottomed, when spreads on subprime home-equity loan securitizations started to widen. I think we are now into stage three, where some of the bigger listed subprime lenders start to get hit. That might bring the ongoing problems in subprime to a wider audience. Stage four is when a top-three-listed subprime lender goes broke, leaving various Wall St. firms saddled with bad loans. Stage five is when the market really gets it, and eurodollars (at least for a time) start to rally hard as the market fears some kind of financial turmoil. We're not there yet, as we are just now entering stage three, but do not take your eye off subprime for a second."

I hope this behind-the-scenes peek at the mortgage market will help readers navigate the difficult period that lies ahead.

At the time of publication, Bill Fleckenstein was short New Century Financial.
 
So you are spending $10,000 a year more than if you rent...let's say you rent that home for 5 years...that's $50,000. Now in the last 5 years TG have most people who bought homes for $250,000...then watched them jump up to $450,000...did those people make up for that $50,000 extra they paid over those 5 years? The answer is clearly yes. Even if you think the $500,000 home you buy now will only go up $100,000 or a total of 20% over the next 5 years avg only 4% a year you still are doubling every extra dollar you are paying out to own a home.
Do you really expect this model to continue forever? Do you think that today's 500K ranch house will be going for $1.2 million 5 years from now (while the average household income has only risen to about $80K)?How about 5 years after that? Will the average home be going for $3.1 million while the average household pulls down a little over $100K?
 
' date='Jan 15 2007, 04:24 PM' post='6208404']

So you are spending $10,000 a year more than if you rent...let's say you rent that home for 5 years...that's $50,000. Now in the last 5 years TG have most people who bought homes for $250,000...then watched them jump up to $450,000...did those people make up for that $50,000 extra they paid over those 5 years? The answer is clearly yes. Even if you think the $500,000 home you buy now will only go up $100,000 or a total of 20% over the next 5 years avg only 4% a year you still are doubling every extra dollar you are paying out to own a home.
Do you really expect this model to continue forever? Do you think that today's 500K ranch house will be going for $1.2 million 5 years from now (while the average household income has only risen to about $80K)?How about 5 years after that? Will the average home be going for $3.1 million while the average household pulls down a little over $100K?
:goodposting:
 
Interesting article from the AZ Republic:

Valley fighting mortgage fraud wave

Catherine Reagor

© The Arizona Republic

Jan. 20, 2007 11:12 PM

A wave of mortgage fraud is rippling through pockets of the Valley, inflating home values through scams called cash-back deals.

Left unchecked, cash-back deals cost homeowners and lenders millions of dollars and could erode confidence and values in Arizona's real estate market.

The fraud involves obtaining a mortgage for more than a home is worth and pocketing the extra money in cash. Neighbors may then discover home values in the area are exaggerated. Homeowners stuck with overpriced mortgages may never recover the difference. And lenders end up with bad loans that, in the long run, could hurt the Arizona real estate market, the largest segment of the state economy.

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While the extent of the fraud is unclear, an Arizona Republic investigation into these cash-back deals found organized groups of speculators have bought multiple homes this way, leaving whole neighborhoods with inflated values. Add to these the individual deals done by amateurs who hear others talk about the easy money they made from cash-back sales.

State investigators and real estate industry leaders want more enforcement and greater public awareness to stop the spread of cash-back deals before the damage mounts.

"Mortgage fraud in the Valley has become so prevalent people think it's a normal business practice," said Amy Swaney, a mortgage banker with Premier Financial Services and past president of the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association.

Under federal law it is illegal to misrepresent the value of a home to a lender. Everyone who is a party to the deal is subject to prosecution.

Felecia Rotellini is a Notre Dame law school graduate and former assistant attorney general who is now superintendent of the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions. Her agency regulates mortgage lenders, state banks and credit unions in the state. Alarmed by what she was hearing from lenders and real estate agents, she has just pulled together state and federal regulators to form an Arizona mortgage fraud task force.

"People need to understand these cash-back deals are illegal and stop," she said. "We are going after mortgage fraud."

Cash-back deals rely on an inflated appraisal so the buyer can secure a mortgage for more than the actual sale price. In cash-back deals, usually the buyer, appraiser, a mortgage broker and real estate agent are in on the scheme and split the extra cash. The deals also can involve a notary, title person and sometimes the seller.

Beyond the money that lenders lose, the most devastating effect for everyone living in the region is the inflation of home values.

The value of a house is determined in large part by the "comps," or comparable prices at which homes recently sold in a neighborhood. Buyers, sellers and real estate agents rely on comps as the benchmark for setting fair home prices. Their reliability is a foundation of the home-sale industry.

When home values are inflated:

• Owners can owe more money on their mortgage than the home is worth.

• Owners who try to sell their home may find few buyers or have to sell at a loss.

• Owners who struggle with significant debt may lose their home to foreclosure.

• Neighbors lose value on their homes.

Where multiple homes have been bought and sold this way, whole neighborhoods can suffer depressed values. Cash-back deals are just the latest form of mortgage fraud, a category of white-collar crime that has exploded across the country. In 2004, losses from all types of mortgage fraud in the U.S. were $429 million, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. In 2005, as real estate and easy lending both took off, losses were $1 billion. And 2006 losses are expected to be near $1 billion.

The Valley's high-velocity housing market of 2004-2005, and stiff competition among lenders who let buyers put almost nothing down on a home, created the opening for these cash-back deals. Now, as the housing market has slowed, buyers find they can't resell their homes for what they paid. Foreclosure notices for those struggling buyers as well as speculators who have pulled money out of homes are climbing.

"Arizona was like a housing gold rush for speculators from California, Florida and Texas a few years ago," said Detroit real estate agent and fraud activist Ralph Roberts, author of the book Flipping Houses for Dummies. "But home prices stopped climbing, and speculators got greedy. Now the cash-back scam is going to make the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s look like a soft landing."

Cash-back scam

The cash-back deal usually starts with buyers searching for a homeowner eager to sell.

An example of how it works: A homeowner lists the house for $300,000, but there are no offers. One day a buyer or real estate agent appears and offers $350,000, $50,000 above the asking price. The seller may keep the $300,000 asking price but has to give back the extra $50,000. Sometimes the seller is told the money is for renovations. In other cases, the seller is offered a share of the extra cash.

When everyone agrees on the deal, an appraiser delivers an inflated appraisal that is used to obtain the $350,000 mortgage. On through the sale process, the fraud also may involve an escrow agent or mortgage broker who provides information and documents knowing the home is not worth the amount of the loan. Many cash-back sales are hidden from lenders by an addendum filed later or even marked secret.

After the papers are signed, the extra cash is divided as planned. The lender and everyone else who checks the comp on that sale believe the home has a market value of $350,000.

Some buyers who use the cash-back scam then use short-term financing to keep their payments low and pull the scam again by selling to another accomplice. Others choose simply to walk away and deal with having a foreclosure in their credit history, a blemish that is relatively easy to erase later. Some hope to make a final sale to another buyer who is unaware of the scam, leaving that person stuck paying the mortgage on an overpriced house.

Last November, a cash-back buyer approached Brett Barry of Realty Executives at an open house in north Phoenix. The home had been reduced to $500,000. The potential buyer said he would pay full price but wanted to raise the sales price $40,000 or $50,000 and have the seller write him a check for that extra amount.

"He wanted the money under the table after the deal closed," Barry said. "He said he had a lender with an appraiser who could 'make the deal happen.' "

Barry knew the deal was bad but was obligated to present it to his clients, who also thought it was too fishy and passed.

There are other warning signs for sellers facing possible cash-back deals: Handwritten offers with details buyers don't want in the contract. A buyer's request that the home be removed from any listing service so a lender can't track the original price.

The fraud is in misrepresenting the value of the home to the lender. Buyers sign a standard loan document, Form 1003, which states: "We/I fully understand that it is a Federal crime punishable by fine or imprisonment to knowingly make false statements." And everyone involved in the deal who knew the value of the home was less than the mortgage is subject to prosecution.

For starters, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and appraisers can lose their licenses. But everyone involved in mortgage fraud, including buyers and the sellers, can be fined and even sent to prison.

There are many other forms of mortgage fraud, such as misrepresenting a buyer's true income, using false identification to buy or sell property, or obtaining loans for properties that don't exist.

In older cities such as Detroit and Chicago, one popular scam involves buying distressed properties for little money, obtaining an inflated appraisal and immediately reselling the home to an accomplice and making off with the mortgage money.

Cash-back deals sweeping across Arizona are a newer form of fraud that flourishes in hot markets such as Phoenix with recent run-ups in home prices. Regulators are afraid cash-back mortgage fraud is becoming much more widespread around the country.

Fertile area for fraud

Metro Phoenix's booming new-home market, relatively low housing prices, steady growth and huge real estate industry drive the area's economy. Those same conditions are also a magnet for speculators and scam artists.

In 2005, loose lending standards helped the mortgage industry post record profits and struggling buyers purchase a record number of homes. Easy to obtain interest-only loans and negative amortization mortgages, along with fewer requirements on how borrowers show income, also helped speculators and scam artists snap up Valley homes. The hyperdemand created by speculators played a major role in the rapid rise of Valley home values.

According to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, at least 35 percent of all homes sold in metro Phoenix during 2005 went to speculators and investors. In 2006, the number dropped, as many speculators moved on to other markets where homes were cheaper and they had a better chance of flipping them quickly for a profit. Still, investors accounted for more than 20 percent of Valley home sales last year.

As the hot housing market cooled in 2006, business fell for everyone in the real estate industry, including appraisers and real estate agents. Some started looking for new ways to make money. Cash-back deals became a way to keep commissions and fees coming in.

At a recent Valley real estate meeting with 1,000 agents, mortgage brokers and escrow people, a speaker asked people in the audience if they knew of any cash-back deals in the Valley. All but a handful raised their hands. Many seemed surprised when told such deals are illegal.

Cash-back deals are so common that a variety of Web sites openly promote them. Postings on the popular craigslist.com include individuals trying to sell homes by offering cash-back deals.

"Anyone in the real estate business who doesn't know these deals are illegal should get out of it," said Margie O'Campo de Castillo of Arizona Dream Realty. "These kind of bad deals will hurt everyone in the industry and the housing market."

There are situations where cash is returned in a home sale. For example, a real estate agent may return part of his fee to the buyer as part of the contract. But that exchange is explicitly written into the contract. Hiding cash-back transactions or in any other way misrepresenting the true value of the home is illegal.

Regulators also are concerned about the role some mortgage brokers play. A mortgage broker works with a number of lenders to find loans and earns money through fees. A mortgage banker, in comparison, works for the company that provides the loan and profits through the borrower's steady flow of payments. Working for fees can lead some mortgage brokers to be more concerned about the volume of loans they handle rather than the quality or, in some cases, legality.

People are drawn to the Valley's mortgage industry by the area's growth and the quick and easy money they hear other brokers are making. Every two months, the state offers a test for people who want to become a mortgage broker. In 2005, 80 people took the test every two months. In 2006, that number rose to 100. One industry estimate shows new mortgage brokers in Arizona made 50 percent of the home loans last year. Rotellini of the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions believes the hundreds of new mortgage brokers who rushed into Phoenix include too many concerned more about making a quick buck than helping homeowners find the right loan.

"Yesterday's telemarketer is today's mortgage broker," Rotellini said.

Damaged market

The damage already has been done in areas where cash-back deals have occurred in clusters, usually in new developments where dishonest speculators can buy multiple homes. In such areas, inflated prices can affect an entire neighborhood.

Speculating in real estate is perfectly legal. Many speculators abide by the law as they ride market trends buying and selling homes. It is the speculators who try to profit by illegal means, such as cash-back deals, who can hurt home values.

The Republic investigation found neighborhoods in Gilbert, Queen Creek, Mesa, Laveen and Surprise where speculators bought groups of homes at prices significantly above asking prices and neighborhood comps: a sign regulators consider a strong indicator of cash-back deals.

Honest home buyers who later purchase in neighborhoods invaded by cash-back speculators pay higher prices based on those inflated comps.

The Republic found one new neighborhood where a group of buyers has been selling and reselling homes to one another. According to public records, members of this group paid higher than asking prices using high-interest and adjustable-rate mortgages. They own almost 25 percent of the houses in that neighborhood.

At some point, speculators who are still in the market also could be among the owners who must sell at a loss or lose their houses to foreclosure. The difference is that speculators may find it easier to just abandon the home and take all the money they have extracted with them.

When a number of homes go into foreclosure, neighborhood home values take a heavy hit.

Tom Ruff is a real estate property record expert with Phoenix-based Information Market. At the Republic's request, he also analyzed the property records that suggest an ongoing cash-back scheme in the new neighborhood studied by the Republic. He called what he saw "a house of cards" that will soon collapse on the speculators but end up hurting other homeowners more.

The extent of the damage from such deals is uncertain because the state task force investigation is just starting, but some believe it is Valley-wide.

"The scams have created false appreciation for the Valley's real estate market," said Diane Drain, a Phoenix real estate attorney who specializes in foreclosure cases.



Before the housing market frenzy of 2004-2005, homes in the Valley appreciated 6 to 8 percent each year. In 2004-2005, home values (based on median price for sales) jumped 50 percent. A variety of forces drove up prices, including rapid growth, aggressive outside speculators paying asking and above-asking prices on the spot, and cash-back deals.



Valley housing-market experts now believe home values are inflated anywhere from 10 to 40 percent. The recent drop in home values, about 5 percent in 2006, is part of a market correction.

Ironically, cash-back deals that inflate sales prices may have cushioned the fall so far. But as those bad loans come due, they will contribute to the drop.

And, in some areas, the real measure of inflated home values will be found in what homes sell for in foreclosure. Metro Phoenix home foreclosures have been steadily climbing since June of 2006 and hit a 21-month high in December. Experts believe foreclosures will continue to climb.

"Mortgage fraud makes me furious," said Swaney, the mortgage banker and past president of the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association. "Not because I am losing business to mortgage brokers but because what it's doing to neighborhoods and to all of our home values."

Fighting fraud

Calls about cash-back deals began reaching examiners at the Department of Financial Institutions and Swaney at the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association in late summer and fall of 2006.

The calls were from homeowners, real estate agents and lenders asking if the cash-back deals were legal. The number of calls has increased every month.

Rotellini of the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions said her agency now receives calls every day on cash-back deals. She recently hired two consumer-complaint investigators and plans to devote the bulk of her agency's resources to investigating mortgage fraud. She admits her small staff is a minor force compared with the scale of the problem. And her agency can go after only mortgage brokers and escrow agents.

Regulation of Arizona's real estate industry is fragmented and uneven, similar to national regulation of lenders. The Arizona Department of Real Estate regulates real estate agents. The State Board of Appraisals handles appraisers. Those agencies can take away licenses and issue fines but cannot prosecute.

Given the scale of mortgage fraud that seems to be unfolding here, Rotellini knew all the regulatory agencies involved would have to share resources and tackle it together. So in November, Rotellini organized a mortgage fraud task force that includes the Arizona Department of Real Estate, Arizona Housing Department, FBI, Housing and Urban Development, IRS and State Board of Appraisers. They plan to share information and collaborate on cases.

Complaints and questions about mortgage fraud also have reached local police departments. They, too, will be working with the new task force.

Professional associations within the real estate industry also are worried, about their members and the industry as a whole.

Don Kelly of industry trade group the Appraisal Institute said, "In areas like Phoenix, where there was a hyperescalation of home prices, there's a lot of pressure on appraisers to make deals work. But that's not their job. As the market continues to slow and foreclosures rise, fraud is likely to increase. The type of fraud you are seeing in Phoenix is going to spread to other parts of the country."

Rotellini's task force was created to pool resources on investigations and convict people of mortgage fraud. While in the Attorney General's Office, she led the investigation of Arthur Andersen, the former auditor of the now-bankrupt Baptist Foundation of Arizona. Andersen ultimately agreed to pay investors of the failed Baptist Foundation $217 million. There is also early talk of state legislation to make it easier to indict people on mortgage fraud.

Even with extra regulatory manpower and cooperation, Rotellini says it will take greater awareness among people in the real estate industry and the public to stop cash-back deals in Arizona.

"Mortgage fraud can be hard to prove because you have to show people profited and had intent," she said. "It's difficult to regulate honesty.

"It's important to get the word out and educate people that these cash-back deals are illegal, but we also have statutes and can work together to find these people and take their licenses, fine them and prosecute them."
 
The Baltimore Sun reported today that home sales for the metro area dropped 19% in 2006 from 2005. Even more interesting was a stat from the U.S. Census Bureau reporting that fully half of the nation's homes for sale are currently vacant, a 30% increase from the same quarter in 2005. Many sellers appear to be hanging on to two properties simultaneously, for a variety of reasons.

 
Trends here in Europe are to go for longer and longer mortgages since the prices of homes is so far out of wack compared to people's salaries.

For example, a 2BR flat here in the center of Madrid would go for upwards of 400,000€, maybe 5. Salaries are about half as much as in the US, maybe even less. So there are now 50 and 60 year mortgages to be able to pay for the cost of buying a home. This has obviously impacted the society and culture here as very few young people have the means to buy real estate and get on the path of building wealth. Simply put, there American method of saving and buying real estate to move up in socioeconomic status simply doesn't work. The avast majority of the people are middle class (small lower class) and rent for a LONG time until they come into some familial wealth.

 
Things not going well in Massachusetts and I think the worst is yet to come..

"Massachusetts single-family housing sales had their worst December since 1991, and the median sale price for a single family home fell 8.1 percent to $310,000 in December 2006"

Boston Globe Article

 
Things not going well in Massachusetts and I think the worst is yet to come..

"Massachusetts single-family housing sales had their worst December since 1991, and the median sale price for a single family home fell 8.1 percent to $310,000 in December 2006"

Boston Globe Article
Sounds like the Boston market experienced a similar false run-up like SoCal, Miami, Phoenix, and Wash D.C. Historically low mortgage rates, creative financing, mortgage fraud, and the "get rich by living in a house frenzy" was a stiff cocktail. The hangover is going to be painful.

 
We currently live in College Station, TX, the most undervalued housing market in the U.S. [source] and are finally getting a correction the other way. Our home prices are finally accelerating, and it's starting to be a seller's market, as the entire region is growing quickly and it is currently projected that more new jobs are coming to the region in the next 6 months, than there are unemployed workers (currently only 3.8% = lowest in all of TX). :thumbup:

 
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That mortgage fraud stuff is going on in NJ as well. The Ethics Committee released an opinion about 3 weeks ago that held that no attorney could take part in a real estate transaction in which there was a seller credit included because the credit was basically fraud on the secondary market.

There was an uproar here like you wouldn't believe. They clarified the opinion a few days later and said that sellers can credit actual and real closing costs as long as they appear on the HUD and are truly real costs and not just inflating costs by the broker to get more of a mortgage for the buyer.

 
San Diego: record high inventories, median price going negative YOY this month for the first time in 8 yrs., and new home/condo projects being cancelled. The party is officially over in SD, now buyers are waiting out the sellers and the words "reduction" and "motivated" are in every ad.I see Phoenix has over 50,000 places on the market. WOW.How's your market doing? Has momentum changed?EDIT: Title changed.
An ex girlfriend of mine has had to take her 5 bedroom 3200 sq ft house off the market here in Lee's Summit, Missouri. It's value is in the $250k range (+/-) in a nice sub-division. She had it on the market for close to a year I believe. Now she's making two house payments! :X :shock:
 
I just checked on the lake where I HAVE A CABIN (shuke>hi)

Cheapest place is $550,000. The highest, with 300 feet of frontage is $2.1M.

Up, significantly (100%+ over the last 5 years). Up 15-30% over the last 2 years.

 
Values are dropping. Buyers think they should get huge discounts and sellers think it is the same market as it was a couple of years ago. Neither are budging too much and it is piling up the numbers of houses on market.

Being in the general industry- an interesting situation was brought to my attention today: A person who set up an Equity Line of Credit a few years ago COULD have had a line amount of $65K but refused the amount for a lower $50K because they felt they did not need the full amount. They went in to get an increase- figuring value went up for another $25K. Value on the appraisal came back lower to the point where if it were today, they would have to get $48K max allowed on their Equity.

Most lenders offer no cost Equity Lines of Credit, with no annual fee, etc. Now is the time to get one for future use- unforeseen medical bills, broken down car, an addition you have to do on your house... the list goes on. If you need it- GREAT, there it is. If you do not need it, then no cost to you. No brainer. If values go up (in time they will) you usually can increase your line then.

 
More Californians Foreclosing On Their Homes

Last Updated:

01-25-07 at 7:51PM

The dream of being a homeowner is being dashed at an alarming rate. New numbers show a 145-percent jump in default notices in the last three months of 2006 compared to the same period in 2005. It's a symptom of the housing market slowdown.

Realtor Gary Kent says foreclosures usually make up about 10 percent of his business. Today, they're more than 50 percent. One, a 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath condo in Clairemont has an asking price of almost $280,000 -- not a steal of a deal.

Kent says in most cases, incredible foreclosure bargains are a myth.

"The banks are looking to maximize their money, so most foreclosures the banks have taken back are for 90 to 95 percent, even 100 percent of market value," Kent said.

Foreclosures in San Diego county were up nearly 665 percent in 2006. In the majority of cases, people simply could no longer afford to make their monthly payments.

Brent Wilsey is a financial planner who tells homeowners you have to act the moment you sense you're in trouble, you should act on it.

"You can't wait until foreclosure. You've got to do it now -- this is a wakeup call if you have any problems at all. Start taking care of it now," Wilsey said.

Wilsey says you should call the bank or your mortgage broker and see if they can get you into a new loan you can better afford. Believe it or not, banks wants you to succeed because they don't want to own your home. But the best advice is not to get yourself in this situation in the first place.

"Look at your budget and say what can I afford in a monthly payment, and if you can't buy that $600,000 house, buy the $400,000 house," Wilsey said. "It's better to have the $400,000 and make payments than worry all the time about not making payment on more expensive homes."
 
The San Diego market is holding values very well. I live in a newer community and just had my home appraised last week. To the dismay of the housing market crashers my house only lost $13,000 in 2 years. That is during the adjustment, recast or crash that was forecasted. I don't know where the 30% fall gunz predicted is? I just don't see it, my neighbor around the corners just sold his house for $15,000 over appraised value. I am putting my house on the market in a month or so!

 
The San Diego market is holding values very well. I live in a newer community and just had my home appraised last week. To the dismay of the housing market crashers my house only lost $13,000 in 2 years. That is during the adjustment, recast or crash that was forecasted. I don't know where the 30% fall gunz predicted is? I just don't see it, my neighbor around the corners just sold his house for $15,000 over appraised value. I am putting my house on the market in a month or so!
Let us know how the sale goes. What "newer community" BTW? Inland Empire?
 
The San Diego market is holding values very well. I live in a newer community and just had my home appraised last week. To the dismay of the housing market crashers my house only lost $13,000 in 2 years. That is during the adjustment, recast or crash that was forecasted. I don't know where the 30% fall gunz predicted is? I just don't see it, my neighbor around the corners just sold his house for $15,000 over appraised value. I am putting my house on the market in a month or so!
Let us know how the sale goes. What "newer community" BTW? Inland Empire?
:mellow: there are new subdivisions in san diego.it's not 100% built out.
 
The San Diego market is holding values very well. I live in a newer community and just had my home appraised last week. To the dismay of the housing market crashers my house only lost $13,000 in 2 years. That is during the adjustment, recast or crash that was forecasted. I don't know where the 30% fall gunz predicted is? I just don't see it, my neighbor around the corners just sold his house for $15,000 over appraised value. I am putting my house on the market in a month or so!
:lmao: Glad to hear it bro. When you cash out big $'s I expect to be invited to the new crib for Den/Diego next fall.Obviously some neighborhoods are doing better than others. That being said, for SD as a whole the correction as measured in median value is 8-9% of off the peak of Nov '05. Jump on Ziprealty, and surf around for homes. There is a ton of discounting going on in San Diego, and a LOT of folks who bought in '04 and '05 attempting to sell for a loss.665% rise in SD foreclosures this year? With the "booming" economy and very good unemployment #'s? Something smells very fishy....
 
my old firm is a mezz lender for homebuilders and there are a ton of projects that are in asset management. i actually may be going back to this firm to take over a portion of this portfolio and get it back on track as they are having difficulty managing all of their asset management deals in san diego.

with that said builders are starting to blow out here in phoenix. i just went to a big market study seminar yesterday and the forecast was very positive. we likely won't be seeing the kind of #s we did in 2004 or 2005 in terms of permits and closings but will be stabilizing around 2003 which is the 3rd best year ever in phoenix...not a bad place to stabilize at.

prices only fell about 5% in phoenix in 2006 and many of the experts expect a 5% gain in 2007. of course that is for the market as a whole and there were many homes that probably lost 20% of their value from the peak of 2005.

bottom line...you can always make money in housing regardless of market, you just need to do your homework and make a good buy.

 
As you know, public perception is a catalyst that drives markets both to feverish, irrational highs and below rational floors.

The recent hype that helped double and triple home values over the last 5 years and made "Flip this house", "Sell this house", etc. TV staples is now changing. Uh-oh.

Are housing fears overblown?

A new Gallup poll says about half of consumers expect a housing-market collapse in their area over the next three years despite pundits' predictions to the contrary.

Nearly half of all Americans believe the housing market is poised to go from bad to worse over the next few years, according to a new survey, despite assurances from many real estate forecasters that the market has hit bottom.

The glum outlook, reported in the Gallup-Experian Personal Credit Index, says 47% of consumers surveyed at the end of the year believe that the housing bubble is bursting and that real estate prices in their area will likely collapse over the next three years. Though 51% don't expect a collapse, the pessimistic crowd has increased from 42% in April 2006 and 37% the year before.

"The housing market has been in a downturn for some time now," says Dennis Jacobe, Gallup's chief economist. "People are seeing more for-sale signs out there longer . . . and people are taking their houses off the market. As people talk to each other, the negative psychology builds."

The bottom line, Jacobe says, is a lot of people don't believe the housing market is headed for a so-called soft landing despite the predictions of some real estate experts and Wall Street prognosticators.

'When and where' still up for debate

But clearly there is some debate about exactly when that drop will happen. Though they may be pessimistic for the three-year outlook, many survey respondents are more optimistic about the short term. Of the 3,053 Americans randomly surveyed by Gallup, 47% expect home prices in their area to go up in the next year, and 33% expect prices to remain about the same. Only 18% think prices will decline in the next 12 months.

Fears of a potential housing price collapse are greatest in the West and East, where price surges were the most dramatic in recent years, with 52% and 49%, respectively, of those survey respondents saying they think such a downturn is likely or very likely over the next three years. That compares with 41% of consumers in the Midwest and 44% in the South, where the uptick in prices has been less pronounced.

Not surprising, the concerns are greater among middle- to lower-middle-class households with incomes of less than $75,000 a year. Renters are more convinced of a bust, with 57% thinking continued price drops likely, versus 43% of homeowners.

Some real estate analysts and agents downplayed the Gallup results, saying the findings are just more doom and gloom based on media reports.

But Leo Nordine, a Redondo Beach, Calif., real estate agent specializing in bank-owned properties, says the sentiment jibes with what he's seeing in Southern California's once-scorching real estate market.

"I've been through a couple of these cycles already," Nordine says. "And I think this next one will actually be worse. The buyers are controlling the market now."

Prices down by 10% a year?

Nordine thinks the Southern California market will decline over the next few years, with prices eroding about 10% each year. As prices have softened, he says, many sellers are already pulling their houses off the market.

Meanwhile, another market is heating up: Nordine gets about one new listing a day from banks that are foreclosing on properties. "We've become a debtor nation," he says.

Indeed, one in four of the consumers in Experian's survey have both a first mortgage and a home-equity loan or line of credit. But the amount of home equity being tapped seems to be slipping somewhat, after years of rapid growth.

According to the American Bankers Association, the dollar amount of home-equity loans and lines increased at an annualized rate of 14.6% for the first three quarters of 2006, compared with a 17.4% increase in 2005 and a 31.2% increase in 2004.

One thing is clear: More consumers are using these lines to bail themselves out of financial hot water rather than improve the market value of their homes. Thirty-six percent of survey respondents with these loans and credit lines told Gallup they used them to finance home improvements or repairs, down from 43% in April 2006. A rising number, 17%, are using the money to pay off credit cards and consolidate debt, compared with 14% in April 2006.

Risky loans hit home

This kind of additional debt, coupled with the explosion of some more risky types of lending in recent years, is a wild card in the success of the real estate market this year, says Delores Conway, the director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast at the University of Southern California's Lusk Center for Real Estate. As variable-rate loans are reset over the next year or so, more consumers across the country could find themselves in hot water, and markets could be scattered with more foreclosures.

But, Conway says, that's too early to predict right now. Conway thinks the national real estate market is headed for a correction rather than plunge because the economy appears relatively stable and the jobs picture looks solid. "Just because there have been big price run-ups doesn't mean a price collapse will necessarily follow," she says. "There have been reasons for the price run-ups," including supply constraints, rising rents and historic mortgage lows.

If mortgage rates continue to stay relatively low and the economy continues along the same track, Conway says, there shouldn't continue to be a huge drag on prices. Rather, she thinks most markets will see prices soften between 5% and 10% to remedy some of the price excess of the past several years.

Phyllis Alexander, a top-selling agent in Washington, D.C., and in parts of Maryland, says she is already seeing the real estate business return to normal in her neck of the woods. "We've had the best December and January we've ever had," she says. "We are now seeing multiple offers again. The property that is priced right and shows well is selling and selling well and quickly."

Of course, Alexander acknowledges, that might not be the case in many other markets around the country.

Susan Matyi, a Jacksonville, Fla., retiree, for instance, has spent six months trying to sell her four-bedroom, two-bath ranch-style home. She has reduced the price to below appraisal in an attempt to sell it more quickly.

"In this market, you do have to market your house well and have a reasonable price," Matyi says. "We had a good offer on our house three days after we put it on the market. We didn't take it, but we should have."
 
As you know, public perception is a catalyst that drives markets both to feverish, irrational highs and below rational floors.

The recent hype that helped double and triple home values over the last 5 years and made "Flip this house", "Sell this house", etc. TV staples is now changing. Uh-oh.

Are housing fears overblown?

A new Gallup poll says about half of consumers expect a housing-market collapse in their area over the next three years despite pundits' predictions to the contrary."In this market, you do have to market your house well and have a reasonable price," Matyi says. "We had a good offer on our house three days after we put it on the market. We didn't take it, but we should have."
Agreed, there are a lot of morons out there.
 
Not surprising, the concerns are greater among middle- to lower-middle-class households with incomes of less than $75,000 a year. Renters are more convinced of a bust, with 57% thinking continued price drops likely, versus 43% of homeowners. For some reason Gallup mentioned that one renter, a man named Tommy Gunz, kept calling them over and over under different names. Gallup learned of this using caller id, and is unsure if they want to restate the poll results.
Fixed. :D It is interesting and not all together unexpected that renters in the majority think that prices are going to drop and a minority of homeowners believe that prices will drop.

They said it has gone up from 37% in April 2005 to 47% now. To me, with the fact that spring 2005 was when DC real estate (where I left) peaked, that just seems like normal sentiment as prices have gone down since then. Kind of like consumer sentiment polls when we hit rough patches in the economy.

By the way, for those who enjoy watching other people's misery, check out the Buy Me show on HGTV. Some of the best TV. Only 1 time out of the last 3 that I watched did the people sell the house. Last night the lady put 350k worth of improvements into her 550k (purchase price) home and couldn't sell it for a loss. The house got a lot bigger, but methinks she got hosed on the 350k of improvements. The time before the RE agent tried to get a lady to accept an offer by cutting his commission and when she said no, he gave her her wish to get out of the contract with him. The place was a mess.

 
As you know, public perception is a catalyst that drives markets both to feverish, irrational highs and below rational floors.

The recent hype that helped double and triple home values over the last 5 years and made "Flip this house", "Sell this house", etc. TV staples is now changing. Uh-oh.

Are housing fears overblown?

A new Gallup poll says about half of consumers expect a housing-market collapse in their area over the next three years despite pundits' predictions to the contrary."In this market, you do have to market your house well and have a reasonable price," Matyi says. "We had a good offer on our house three days after we put it on the market. We didn't take it, but we should have."
Agreed, there are a lot of morons out there.
:eek: Somewhere near Matyi is one of the folks in the 51% that don't think a collapse is emminent and took the offer from the people that wanted her house.

 

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