How's your housing market? (3 Viewers)

[Sand]

General note of interest.  I don't know how many of you guys keep track of what Zillow says your house is worth (they are getting sued over it).  Personal Capital captures it and tracks my property values.  So last week my theoretical net worth dropped by 100k - I checked Zillow and they repriced everything by about 20% and backdated all of it to look transparent.  PC doesn't backdate, so it looks like I burned a ####load of cash last week.  I realize the Zestimate isn't really all that accurate (the rental property went from somewhat over estimated to somewhat under), just thought it was interesting that they are doing some shadow adjustments on the heels of the lawsuit.

As another general note I remain agog at the numbers you guys throw out for property prices where you are.  General insanity.  RE activity here is pretty hopping (houses sell fast), but we're sitting at ~$100/sq.ft. or so.

 

[joey]

You want to remain agogged? 

Mill Valley, Marin County, CA

We bought a 4BR/2.5BA house in 2004 for a sky high price of $925k. (Scraped the down payment together from the nice profits on our previous house that we sold when the market was still rising like crazy in CA) 

Now, 13 years later, the Zillow value (fwiw) is more than double that. 

Yes, just like Sandeman, this house is a nice part of our downsizing/retirement plan in 10-15 years time. 

Mill Valley, California. Double Insane. 

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

General note of interest.  I don't know how many of you guys keep track of what Zillow says your house is worth (they are getting sued over it).  Personal Capital captures it and tracks my property values.  So last week my theoretical net worth dropped by 100k - I checked Zillow and they repriced everything by about 20% and backdated all of it to look transparent.  PC doesn't backdate, so it looks like I burned a ####load of cash last week.  I realize the Zestimate isn't really all that accurate (the rental property went from somewhat over estimated to somewhat under), just thought it was interesting that they are doing some shadow adjustments on the heels of the lawsuit.

As another general note I remain agog at the numbers you guys throw out for property prices where you are.  General insanity.  RE activity here is pretty hopping (houses sell fast), but we're sitting at ~$100/sq.ft. or so.

Alabama's real estate prices are particularly low because the median state income in Alabama is one of the lowest in the country and net migration to the state is little better than flat.

 

[jerry jones]

Just saw this thread....I put my 2K sq ft house in Illinois up for sale, sold in a week. Came down to Tampa fl area, have put in an offer on 3 different homes on first day they hit the market. Lost out on each by people offering 5-10% over asking price. 

Its crazy here, waiting on the sellers to accept this current offer on a house that hit the market yesterday.

 

[sbonomo]

Just saw this thread....I put my 2K sq ft house in Illinois up for sale, sold in a week. Came down to Tampa fl area, have put in an offer on 3 different homes on first day they hit the market. Lost out on each by people offering 5-10% over asking price. 

Its crazy here, waiting on the sellers to accept this current offer on a house that hit the market yesterday.

I seem to remember something like this happening US wide a few years back.  That's right, we were then hit by the worst housing bubble burst in my lifetime.  Strap in and get ready for another wild ride.  

 

[FatMax]

I seem to remember something like this happening US wide a few years back.  That's right, we were then hit by the worst housing bubble burst in my lifetime.  Strap in and get ready for another wild ride.  

God I hope so.  I'll be ready this time. 

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

In 2007, we bought our house for a million, and two years later is was worth $700k. Now it's worth probably $2 million. If we have another correction, I'll take it and this time I'm investing in property. But the circumstances seem different now. Loans are vetted, income is up in urban areas, employment is high. I think it all comes down to supply and demand. There's been very little new housing built in the last couple decades, particularly in parts where real estate is so high, like the Bay Area. There's only so much space. But it's true, can't be like this forever. 

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I seem to remember something like this happening US wide a few years back.  That's right, we were then hit by the worst housing bubble burst in my lifetime.  Strap in and get ready for another wild ride.  

The difference is that this time it doesn't look like there is an accelerant to turn a run of the mill downturn into a massive explode-y crisis. Lax subprime lending standards and the jenga tower of CDOs and CDO squareds filled that role a decade ago.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I seem to remember something like this happening US wide a few years back.  That's right, we were then hit by the worst housing bubble burst in my lifetime.  Strap in and get ready for another wild ride.  

What factors do you see that suggest we're in a bubble?  In my area, prices are almost back to bubble levels, but we're a decade later, interest rates are lower, and from everything I'm reading consumer balance sheets are in far better shape. I don't see the same problems we had with lending (yet).  

I'd love for someone to make the bubble case. I'm all ears. I just don't see it.

 

[tommyGunZ]

God I hope so.  I'll be ready this time. 

I gave you a heads up last time.  You weren't listening?  

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

What factors do you see that suggest we're in a bubble?  In my area, prices are almost back to bubble levels, but we're a decade later, interest rates are lower, and from everything I'm reading consumer balance sheets are in far better shape. I don't see the same problems we had with lending (yet).  

I'd love for someone to make the bubble case. I'm all ears. I just don't see it.

Well, I happen to believe we are in a bubble, but it isn't just a bubble in housing, but rather in all risk assets. That bubble has been inflated by a decade of massively expansionary monetary policy not just in the US, but in Europe, Japan and China as well. The intent of the easy money policies has been to stimulate the real economy and stave off deflation. It has been really sub-optimal at the first and has just barely worked at the second. But what it has done is push down risk premiums on all financial assets (which pushes up their valuations). It has also led to an inefficient allocation of resources, which is probably one of the underlying reasons for the collapse of worker productivity growth around the developed world.

I think US property values are inflated, but they may not be dangerously inflated. The same cannot be said for the property markets in places like Canada, Australia and China.

 

[Sand]

Alabama's real estate prices are particularly low because the median state income in Alabama is one of the lowest in the country and net migration to the state is little better than flat.

It's all local.  Median salaries in my area are pretty decent and the area is growing - particularly Shelby County which was one of the fastest growing in the US.  That said, in general for AL you're right.

 

[Sand]

Well, I happen to believe we are in a bubble, but it isn't just a bubble in housing, but rather in all risk assets. That bubble has been inflated by a decade of massively expansionary monetary policy not just in the US, but in Europe, Japan and China as well. The intent of the easy money policies has been to stimulate the real economy and stave off deflation. It has been really sub-optimal at the first and has just barely worked at the second. But what it has done is push down risk premiums on all financial assets (which pushes up their valuations). It has also led to an inefficient allocation of resources, which is probably one of the underlying reasons for the collapse of worker productivity growth around the developed world.

I think US property values are inflated, but they may not be dangerously inflated. The same cannot be said for the property markets in places like Canada, Australia and China.

The only thing I see as a true bubble right now is auto loan debt.  It won't collapse until the economy softens, but when it does there will be fallout.  One of which will be very inexpensive used cars, which may be a good thing for many.

 

[sbonomo]

The difference is that this time it doesn't look like there is an accelerant to turn a run of the mill downturn into a massive explode-y crisis. Lax subprime lending standards and the jenga tower of CDOs and CDO squareds filled that role a decade ago.

I agree, I actually don't believe we will have the same dramatic downfall as last time.  All of my colleagues in the restructuring world are surprisingly slow outside of retail.  We are basically kicking the can down the road for now. I have been saying since the middle of 2016, 6-18 months....Time will tell. 

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

The only thing I see as a true bubble right now is auto loan debt.  It won't collapse until the economy softens, but when it does there will be fallout.  One of which will be very inexpensive used cars, which may be a good thing for many.

Basically there is a bubble in fixed income across the globe. US High yield, US gov debt, EU gov debt, EU high yield, Chinese debt...all of them are a bubble because they have been supported by artificial demand from Central Bank balance sheet expansion. The yield spreads on all of them are absurdly low.

I could also make the argument that US consumer demand is itself a bubble right now, also propped up by cheap debt. But I do see some holes in that theory. We'll find out soon enough,  once the Fed begins its Quantitative Tightening program.

ETA: And I think you are missing some important implications of your observation about the auto loan situation. The fact auto loans are going to get crushed is a small issue. The bigger issue is that demand for new autos is also going to get crushed (it has already started), which will result in a huge slowdown across the auto industry (especially OEMs) and a lot of lay-offs. I don't think weakness in the auto industry is enough to push the US economy into recession right now, but we'll see what its state is when things go bad in earnest.

 

[James Daulton]

I'm listening to @tommyGunZ this time.  Tied with Fin for best call in the history of the FFA.

 

[Buttonhook]

Basically there is a bubble in fixed income across the globe. US High yield, US gov debt, EU gov debt, EU high yield, Chinese debt...all of them are a bubble because they have been supported by artificial demand from Central Bank balance sheet expansion. The yield spreads on all of them are absurdly low.

I could also make the argument that US consumer demand is itself a bubble right now, also propped up by cheap debt. But I do see some holes in that theory. We'll find out soon enough,  once the Fed begins its Quantitative Tightening program.

ETA: And I think you are missing some important implications of your observation about the auto loan situation. The fact auto loans are going to get crushed is a small issue. The bigger issue is that demand for new autos is also going to get crushed (it has already started), which will result in a huge slowdown across the auto industry (especially OEMs) and a lot of lay-offs. I don't think weakness in the auto industry is enough to push the US economy into recession right now, but we'll see what its state is when things go bad in earnest.

Is the weakness in the auto industry you both described due to the development of autonomous cars? Less people needing their own cars creates a distressed market for used vehicles in the future?

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Is the weakness in the auto industry you both described due to the development of autonomous cars? Less people needing their own cars creates a distressed market for used vehicles in the future?

No.

It all has to do with the aggressiveness that the auto industry and the auto finance industry has shown in pulling demand forward by offering easy financing and leasing options. There is a huge glut of cars coming off lease over the next couple of years. At the same time, a lot of people have financed cars they can't really afford. Used vehicle prices have begun to soften and used vehicle pricing is the lynchpin for both the trade-in market and in keeping lease terms attractive (since residual value assumptions are based on used car pricing and residual values are a big driver of lease payments).

This guy is a bit of a doom and gloom purveyor, but his analysis of "Carmageddon" seems to be pretty cogent.

Another

 

[Sand]

Is the weakness in the auto industry you both described due to the development of autonomous cars? Less people needing their own cars creates a distressed market for used vehicles in the future?

I'll partially disagree with Redmond and say that this will become a factor down the road.  Today?  No.  In a decade?  Big time.

Personally, I'm looking forward to snapping up a 3 year old E-class for 15k.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I'll partially disagree with Redmond and say that this will become a factor down the road.  Today?  No.  In a decade?  Big time.

Personally, I'm looking forward to snapping up a 3 year old E-class for 15k.

Oh, I think it will matter in the future. But it isn't the reason for the coming downturn.

 

[Buckna]

Agreed, also just the regular business cycle is a factor as well IMO. The auto business has always been hugely cyclical with massive ups and downs, people always seem to forget that. I can remember Peter Lynch talking about it decades ago in some of his books. As someone who once owned BMW stock right as the bottom fell out on up-cycle, I remember the lesson well. Auto's have been propped up and extended further this time by extremely cheap debt, lax subprime borrowing conditions, and increase in term (6 and 7 year auto loans now the norm.)

Think I read the other day that the average auto loan term is now at close to 70 months, the longest its ever been. 6 & 7 year loans make up something like the bulk of the new loans written, that's just absurd. If you can't afford a vehicle without borrowing for 7 years to pay it off, you probably shouldn't be buying. Which is probably why there's also a ####-ton of leases out there too.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Agreed, also just the regular business cycle is a factor as well IMO. The auto business has always been hugely cyclical with massive ups and downs, people always seem to forget that. I can remember Peter Lynch talking about it decades ago in some of his books. As someone who once owned BMW stock right as the bottom fell out on up-cycle, I remember the lesson well. Auto's have been propped up and extended further this time by extremely cheap debt, lax subprime borrowing conditions, and increase in term (6 and 7 year auto loans now the norm.)

Think I read the other day that the average auto loan term is now at close to 70 months, the longest its ever been. 6 & 7 year loans make up something like the bulk of the new loans written, that's just absurd. If you can't afford a vehicle without borrowing for 7 years to pay it off, you probably shouldn't be buying. Which is probably why there's also a ####-ton of leases out there too.

Yeah. The problem has been that OEMs and finance companies fought against the regular cycle by making financing terms more attractive. That creates sales now, but it increases the magnitude of the eventual downturn. That is what I meant when I said they were "pulling demand forward". It is a short-term tactic that has negative consequences down the road.

 

[ChiefD]

Our neighborhood is on fire. I could list my house tomorrow and it would be gone by the end of the day.

Wife and I are seriously debating about selling and moving to a different state. We could sell here and buy a lake house up north in Minnesota or Wisconsin, which is where we want to be long term.

Low inventory here is driving the frenzy.

 

[Redwes25]

General note of interest.  I don't know how many of you guys keep track of what Zillow says your house is worth (they are getting sued over it).  Personal Capital captures it and tracks my property values.  So last week my theoretical net worth dropped by 100k - I checked Zillow and they repriced everything by about 20% and backdated all of it to look transparent.  PC doesn't backdate, so it looks like I burned a ####load of cash last week.  I realize the Zestimate isn't really all that accurate (the rental property went from somewhat over estimated to somewhat under), just thought it was interesting that they are doing some shadow adjustments on the heels of the lawsuit.

As another general note I remain agog at the numbers you guys throw out for property prices where you are.  General insanity.  RE activity here is pretty hopping (houses sell fast), but we're sitting at ~$100/sq.ft. or so.

Markets vary a lot by location. Where I live you can't get a shack for $100/sq ft

 

[Slapdash]

Low inventory here is driving the frenzy.

Interest and balance sheets are one thing, but, it really seems that housing prices are abnormally divorced from incomes. 

These things have been true for a long time.  In the 07-09 period, leverage caused this to become a financial crisis and the economy collapsed.  That type of crisis is unlikely to happen again, the banking system is much better capitalized/regulated.  But these dynamics still exists and have only gotten worse.  It may be a new normal, but it isn't a great one.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Interest and balance sheets are one thing, but, it really seems that housing prices are abnormally divorced from incomes. 

This is another distortion caused by Fed ZIRP. It has boosted the prices of risk assets, while doing relatively little to help the real economy.

It also varies a great deal by location. The multiples of household income are super inflated in the hot markets where foreign money is coming into the RE market or where there is rapid job growth and natural supply limitations due to geography. A few markets are influenced by both dynamics. 

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

June existing-home sales fell 1.8% m/m to a 5.52M SAAR, down from the prior month’s 5.62M level and below consensus for 5.57M. Release noted June’s sales pace 0.7% above a year ago but is the second-lowest so far this year (behind February’s 5.47M pace). Average selling price up 6.5% y/y to $263,800 as total housing inventory declined 0.5% m/m (down 7.1% y/y). Release noted demand remains strong but supply continues to be tight, and that first-time buyers represented 32% of transactions (down from 33% in prior month and 35% average in 2016)

 

[Bull Dozier]

Haven't been following the thread, but to answer the thread title, "I will find out tonight."

Have been renting out our first house at a loss for the last six years.  Tired of doing that.  Bought it in 2002, bubble burst a few years later before we could get out and we've been underwater ever since.  I'm just hoping to get something close to breaking even to get out from under neath it.  Of course the way the realtor was talking got my hopes up for actually making money on it but I doubt it.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Haven't been following the thread, but to answer the thread title, "I will find out tonight."

Have been renting out our first house at a loss for the last six years.  Tired of doing that.  Bought it in 2002, bubble burst a few years later before we could get out and we've been underwater ever since.  I'm just hoping to get something close to breaking even to get out from under neath it.  Of course the way the realtor was talking got my hopes up for actually making money on it but I doubt it.

Unless you massively overpaid, I can't imagine how anything purchased in 2002 couldn't be well into the money now.

 

[Bull Dozier]

Unless you massively overpaid, I can't imagine how anything purchased in 2002 couldn't be well into the money now.

"Massively" could be a stretch since it was a dirt cheap first house for a young struggling couple.  That said we did overpay.  It was our starter home, something that needed a lot of work.  We figured we'd do a little updating and at that time, it would be a money printing factory (I wish at the time I would have just told my dad to give me a nickel every time he told me I had to buy a house so I could start taking advantage of the appreciation, instead of actually buying a house.  I'd be a lot further ahead right now).  Well, it was a piece of crap and fell apart faster than we could afford to fix things.  It hasn't been improved much and needs some repairs to get sold.  We'll see.

 

[Vanilla Guerrilla]

Unless you massively overpaid, I can't imagine how anything purchased in 2002 couldn't be well into the money now.

My house is still worth about $20,000.00 less than what I paid for it at the end of 2004.  2 years further into the bubble, but similar area.  Just going off roughly what Zillow says.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I see that both of you guys are in Minnesota. I know that the Midwest is the least strong region in the country right now in terms of the housing market. So maybe there is a regional or local market piece that I was missing.

I bought right at the peak in 2006 (and likely overpaid at the time) and sold my house during the seasonally slow period this past fall and it was basically a break even for me. 

 

[mr. furley]

wife's friends had their first open house on Sunday. 32 people went through in one hour.

they have 5 offers.

incredible

 

[Vanilla Guerrilla]

I see that both of you guys are in Minnesota. I know that the Midwest is the least strong region in the country right now in terms of the housing market. So maybe there is a regional or local market piece that I was missing.

I bought right at the peak in 2006 (and likely overpaid at the time) and sold my house during the seasonally slow period this past fall and it was basically a break even for me. 

When I bought mine, decent homes were selling in about 10 days.  I had been looking for months, not in a big hurry.  At the time, my option was to overpay or continue renting an apartment.  You don't know for sure that you are overpaying until the market crashes.

 

[Chadstroma]

Our neighborhood is on fire. I could list my house tomorrow and it would be gone by the end of the day.

Wife and I are seriously debating about selling and moving to a different state. We could sell here and buy a lake house up north in Minnesota or Wisconsin, which is where we want to be long term.

Low inventory here is driving the frenzy.

You WANT to be in either Minn or Wisc? Huh?

 

[Zegras11]

wife's friends had their first open house on Sunday. 32 people went through in one hour.

they have 5 offers.

incredible

8 to 12 offers very common.  I've had open houses up to 54 in 2 hours 

 

[Bull Dozier]

Meeting with the realtor delayed until Wednesday.  Guess I have to wait a few days to see.  

 

[tonydead]

I seem to remember something like this happening US wide a few years back.  That's right, we were then hit by the worst housing bubble burst in my lifetime.  Strap in and get ready for another wild ride.  

It's going to take more than just a housing bubble for places like Seattle.  Recent census numbers show a population increase of 21,000 per year from 2010 to 2016.  It's been estimated that currently it's at 1,100 a week.  Do the math, that's almost triple the numbers in the census.  Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Expedia, Delta, Boeing, Fred Meyer.   Sound Transit has 50 Billion dollars to build light rail infrastructure, WSDOT has gas tax and there are apartment buildings and housing developments everywhere you look.  It would take a housing bubble burst, a dot com explosion and the price of oil set on fire........basically a complete market collapse....or nuclear war.  

 

[Spock]

Bought for $281K in 2002. Just sold for $619K. Had an offer $19K over listing price the day of our first open house.

 

[ZenMaster]

3 days, up to 4 offers with the highest at $205K. We have an open house tomorrow so we'll see if any more come in. 

Sold in 6 days for 6% above asking. 

 

[Vanilla Guerrilla]

Meeting with the realtor delayed until Wednesday.  Guess I have to wait a few days to see.  

Good luck man.  Hope you got that 2-bit punk deadbeat renter out first!!!!

 

[Sand]

Bought for $281K in 2002. Just sold for $619K. Had an offer $19K over listing price the day of our first open house.

     

You picked a good time to sell, I think.

 

[Bull Dozier]

I see that both of you guys are in Minnesota. I know that the Midwest is the least strong region in the country right now in terms of the housing market. So maybe there is a regional or local market piece that I was missing.

I bought right at the peak in 2006 (and likely overpaid at the time) and sold my house during the seasonally slow period this past fall and it was basically a break even for me. 

Got, for me at least, good news from the realtor last night.  For a little background, the city inspected the property, and I have a small list of items that need repair in order to get the certificate of occupancy renewed.  If I want to do nothing, and sell it as is, she thinks I can ask 10k less than what I paid for it in 2002.  If I want to do everything on the list, make some minor updates, and a little effort to improve the curb appear, I can ask 10k over what I paid in 2002.  That's not exactly a great return on an "investment" but I would certainly be glad to be out from underneath it.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Got, for me at least, good news from the realtor last night.  For a little background, the city inspected the property, and I have a small list of items that need repair in order to get the certificate of occupancy renewed.  If I want to do nothing, and sell it as is, she thinks I can ask 10k less than what I paid for it in 2002.  If I want to do everything on the list, make some minor updates, and a little effort to improve the curb appear, I can ask 10k over what I paid in 2002.  That's not exactly a great return on an "investment" but I would certainly be glad to be out from underneath it.

Is that something that commonly has to be done when you sell a house in your community? Or does it reflect the fact your local municipality put some kind of adverse judgement on the house that you have to remedy?

I have sold several houses in multiple jurisdictions and not a single one of them required such a permit or inspection.

 

[Bull Dozier]

Is that something that commonly has to be done when you sell a house in your community? Or does it reflect the fact your local municipality put some kind of adverse judgement on the house that you have to remedy?

I have sold several houses in multiple jurisdictions and not a single one of them required such a permit or inspection.

I haven't done a ton of research in the statutes, but this is my understanding based on personal experience combined with what the realtor told me:

Once the city gets wind of the fact a property is a rental, they do a "fire code" inspection, which appears more to be a slumlord inspection (some of the stuff is legit fire issues like the use of extension cords, etc., but some of it is not, like fixing linoleum tiles in the kitchen which were put over a linoleum floor). They give you a fix it list that you need to comply with in order to get the cert and be able to continue to rent the property.  But, this inspection isn't done for private properties, as several of the items on the first list I got five years ago existed in the house when I bought it.

However, now that the city made the inspection the second time around (I went through the inspection process five years ago and fixed everything except for one, which the city just dropped after I continually asked for an extension), the code violations exist and must be cleared, unless the house is sold "as is" which precludes it from getting FHA or VA financing.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

I haven't done a ton of research in the statutes, but this is my understanding based on personal experience combined with what the realtor told me:

Once the city gets wind of the fact a property is a rental, they do a "fire code" inspection, which appears more to be a slumlord inspection (some of the stuff is legit fire issues like the use of extension cords, etc., but some of it is not, like fixing linoleum tiles in the kitchen which were put over a linoleum floor). They give you a fix it list that you need to comply with in order to get the cert and be able to continue to rent the property.  But, this inspection isn't done for private properties, as several of the items on the first list I got five years ago existed in the house when I bought it.

However, now that the city made the inspection the second time around (I went through the inspection process five years ago and fixed everything except for one, which the city just dropped after I continually asked for an extension), the code violations exist and must be cleared, unless the house is sold "as is" which precludes it from getting FHA or VA financing.

Got it. I understand now. Or I understand as well as I would ever understand arbitrary bureaucratic machinations.

I've never owned a rental property and I somehow missed that this was a rental property you are selling.

 

[Statorama]

Any tips, things to beware of with regard to foreclosure properties?  One of the houses I'm looking at this weekend looks like a pretty sweet deal and it's listed as a foreclosure.  Anyone purchase a foreclosure that would like to share their experience?

Edit to add: Forum search is my friend

 

[Bull Dozier]

Got it. I understand now. Or I understand as well as I would ever understand arbitrary bureaucratic machinations.

I've never owned a rental property and I somehow missed that this was a rental property you are selling.

Ain't that the truth.  I wish the city was there to do the same inspection before we bought the house.  It would have scared us off, and we would have saved a lot of headaches.

 

[Jobber]

Minnesota. A neighbor of mine moved to a new house a few blocks away in February. The current house still sits empty, and no realtor sign as of yet. Without talking to them, I believe their plan was to rent it out. But now it's been 5 months with no renters. Figure in insurance and property tax, and they are probably starting to get concerned. Secretly, I'm hoping they get hosed and have to sell.

That said, is there a glut of home rentals out there today? I swear every other commercial I hear on the radio is for renters warehouse. Maybe house rentals were so huge for about 9 years simply due to the fact that so many people walked away from mortgages that destroyed their credit. Forcing them to rent all this time. Now with that bad credit falling off, these renters are now buyers. Is that a sound assumption?

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

That said, is there a glut of home rentals out there today? I swear every other commercial I hear on the radio is for renters warehouse. Maybe house rentals were so huge for about 9 years simply due to the fact that so many people walked away from mortgages that destroyed their credit. Forcing them to rent all this time. Now with that bad credit falling off, these renters are now buyers. Is that a sound assumption?

I don't know of any data that breaks out single family rental houses from apartments and other rental units. But overall, home ownership rates remain at very low levels versus history and rental vacancy rates are also at extremely low levels, though both have turned up slightly over the past few months.

Latest data from Census Bureau (released today!)