Huge Season from Jake Plummer in 2006? (1 Viewer)

[J-Rock]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

 

[joffer]

(as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

 

[diesel7982]

(as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Well, at least he knew that this was about a Denver QB

 

[Chase Stuart]

Vinny Testaverde didn't have a monster season when the Jets drafted Chad Pennington. Chris Chandler didn't have a monster season when the Falcons drafted Mike Vick.

And Jake Plummer didn't just add Antonio Gates to his team.

 

[diesel7982]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

 

[Chase Stuart]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

 

[diesel7982]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

If thats the case, it would be a deviation from the historical norm for Shanny's offenses.The addition of Heimerdinger, who has always favored the pass over run when hes had the weapons, makes me feel even more confident this will be the case.

 

[Chase Stuart]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

If thats the case, it would be a deviation from the historical norm for Shanny's offenses.The addition of Heimerdinger, who has always favored the pass over run when hes had the weapons, makes me feel even more confident this will be the case.

In terms of total rushing yards, the Broncos might rush for less. But I'm not sure the running game will be worse. It's certainly possible and maybe even likely, but I guess I wouldn't even be as emphatic as you were.The addition of Javon Walker and Heimerdinger should help Plummer. I'm still unconvinced that an inferior running game helps Jake.

 

[Marc Levin]

(as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Well, at least he knew that this was about a Denver QB

With Jake it is getting liquored up and kicking the crap out of some guy's car.

In best Chapelle as Rick James:

F yo' car N-word! F yo' car N-word!

OK- on a serious tip, Plummer's been a great fantasy QB since coming to Denver - he just needs to get better in the playoffs (real ones, not FF playoffs).The comparisons to Brees are good - they both generally post similar fantasy numbers. Nothing outstanding enough to win your week, but usually nothing so poor as to lose you your matchup that week.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Did the Broncos have trouble converting on 3rd downs last year then find a player to pick up that slack like the 2003 to 2004 Chargers?

 

[Super King]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

 

[Gr00vus]

The most important thing that happened between 2003 and 2004 for Brees and the Chargers was that the offensive line drastically improved. I attribute about 80% of Brees's improvement to that, the rest to having better talent around him. When pressured Brees still looks exactly as bad as he did in 2003.

There's really no such change in Denver - I'd expect no such change in Plummer's performance.

 

[J-Rock]

Vinny Testaverde didn't have a monster season when the Jets drafted Chad Pennington. Chris Chandler didn't have a monster season when the Falcons drafted Mike Vick.

And Jake Plummer didn't just add Antonio Gates to his team.

Testaverde was 37 when the Jets drafted Pennington. Chandler was 36 when ATL drafted Vick. Breese was only 25 when SD drafted Rivers. Plummer will be 31 this year.Those guys were close to done when their teams drafted their replacement. Breese and Plummer were far from done arguable in their prime.

Gates was definitely a big help to Breese but remember he was a nobody in 2003. 2004 was his break out season too. I don't think anyone will argue that Denver has a better situation for QB success this year than SD had in 2004, Gates or not.

I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying the situation is there and that it is something to keep an eye on.

 

[J-Rock]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

2003:84 rec, 1174 yds, 8 TD's.

Top 10 in all of the above (15th in TD's top 10 if you count ties).

 

[J-Rock]

The most important thing that happened between 2003 and 2004 for Brees and the Chargers was that the offensive line drastically improved. I attribute about 80% of Brees's improvement to that, the rest to having better talent around him. When pressured Brees still looks exactly as bad as he did in 2003.

There's really no such change in Denver - I'd expect no such change in Plummer's performance.

Interesting point. You are right in that the line was better and was primarily composed of new faces. However, the only known vetran brought in in 2004 who started on the line was Mike Goff. The other new starters were rookies and sophmores who happened to come into their own at the right time.This was certainly a big factor though.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Mark Brunell didn't have a monster season when the Jaguars drafted Byron Leftwich. Brett Favre didn't have a monster season when the Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers. Kurt Warner didn't have a monster season when the Giants drafted Eli Manning. Doug Pederson, Shane Matthews (2x), Jeff Blake and Randall Cunningham all suffered similar fates.

Mark Brunell (Ramsey) and Jon Kitna (Cincinnati) were the most succesful QBs (outside of Brees), although neither really had a monster season. For that matter, Drew Brees didn't have a monster season: he ranked as the 11th best fantasy QB, which is precisely where Plummer was in 2005.

I don't see any reason to upgrade Plummer at all because his team drafted a QB, but there's reason for a slight downgrade.

 

[Franknbeans]

he will wilt under the pressure of a rookie quarterback looking over his shoulder

 

[softball]

he will wilt under the pressure of a rookie quarterback looking over his shoulder

I would disagree. He isn't going to get the chance to wilt.They will run it until they MUST pass. Plummer was a caretaker in 2005, and when they needed him; he spit the bit.....

The truth has finally come out, he's just nothing special.

 

[DeCleater]

Brees improvement was due to many factors (Oline, Gates, better WR's) but also maturity. Not many QB's are great from day 1, Marino and Big Ben are the only two I can think of and they had very good teams around them. Everyone looks at third year WR's to break out but QB's are in the same boat. By about year three the game begins to slow down for them and they make better decisions. I think SD was just to impatient with Brees. A good lesson for teams drafting QB's high.

 

[SSOG]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

I agree. Good posting all around by Diesel, except for the worse running game = better passing game thing. If you look at it historically, Denver's worst passing seasons have coincided with their worst rushing seasona, and their best passing seasons have coincided with their best rushing seasons. Denver's run and pass have a very symbiotic relationship, thanks to the heavy dependency on play action and the bootleg- they both rely on the other being good in order to function. If you shut down the run in Denver, you shut down the pass as well.

 

[diesel7982]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

I agree. Good posting all around by Diesel, except for the worse running game = better passing game thing. If you look at it historically, Denver's worst passing seasons have coincided with their worst rushing seasona, and their best passing seasons have coincided with their best rushing seasons. Denver's run and pass have a very symbiotic relationship, thanks to the heavy dependency on play action and the bootleg- they both rely on the other being good in order to function. If you shut down the run in Denver, you shut down the pass as well.

Not so fast there SSOGWell, let me qualify that by saying Im talking for fantasy purposes, not NFL purposes. I think thas clear, but I wanted to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

Heres a break down of the Broncos run vs. pass yards over the last ten years.

Year Pass Rush2005 3373 25392004 4089 23332003 3126 26292002 4139 22662001 3208 18772000 4464 23241999 3646 18641998 3808 24681997 3704 23781996 3662 23621995 4269 1995 Avg 3771.64 2275.91Heres a breakdown of deviation from the Broncos' averages over the last 10 years:

Year	Dev from Avg Pass	Dev from Avg Rush2005	-398.64	263.092004	317.36	57.092003	-645.64	353.092002	367.36	-9.912001	-563.64	-398.912000	692.36	48.091999	-125.64	-411.911998	36.36	192.091997	-67.64	102.091996	-109.64	86.091995	497.36	-280.91

In general, when passing decreases, rushing increases, and when rushing decreases, passing increases.Only in 1999, in Griese's first season after TD got hurt and Elway left, in 2001 when Griese got hurt did we see relevant decreases in both stats.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Heres a break down of the Broncos run vs. pass yards over the last ten years.

Year	Pass  Rush2005	3373	25392004	4089	23332003	3126	26292002	4139	22662001	3208	18772000	4464	23241999	3646	18641998	3808	24681997	3704	23781996	3662	23621995	4269	1995  Avg	3771.64	2275.91

In general, when passing decreases, rushing increases, and when rushing decreases, passing increases.

The correlation coefficient of passing yards to rushing yards was -0.14: that indicates a weak indirect relationship between the two sets of numbers. Before last season (i.e., from '95-'04) the correlation coefficient was -0.04, or essentially meaningless.

 

[diesel7982]

Heres a break down of the Broncos run vs. pass yards over the last ten years.

Year	Pass  Rush2005	3373	25392004	4089	23332003	3126	26292002	4139	22662001	3208	18772000	4464	23241999	3646	18641998	3808	24681997	3704	23781996	3662	23621995	4269	1995  Avg	3771.64	2275.91

In general, when passing decreases, rushing increases, and when rushing decreases, passing increases.

The correlation coefficient of passing yards to rushing yards was -0.14: that indicates a weak indirect relationship between the two sets of numbers. Before last season (i.e., from '95-'04) the correlation coefficient was -0.04, or essentially meaningless.

Am I wrong in saying that over the last 4 years, every time on part of the offense dropped off, the other increased?

 

[Azzurri]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

Not really. Brees was going to lose his job as soon as Rivers was ready.Plummer was a Pro Bowler last year.

Plummer does stand to have a better season this year:

Worse running game, Better recievers, better schedule....

But the situation is pretty different from what Brees went through.

I'm not so sure that Denver will either have a worse running game or if they do, that Plummer will benefit because of it.

I also think Plummer will throw up a huge season this year. Not only that he also has one of the best FF playoff schedules that I have seen in a long time. As a matter of fact Plummer may have the best FF schedule that I have ever seen for the whole year. Just look at it just three tough defenses all year and from week five on just one. From weeks ten on its all ice cream for him. I am getting him in as many leagues as possible and using him all year just waiting for his playoff schedule. Plummer has been sharp all summer and Denver is very confident to throw the ball a lot this year because of it. When they make a move for a TE like Eric Johnson Graham it will just get better.

 

[SSOG]

Am I wrong in saying that over the last 4 years, every time on part of the offense dropped off, the other increased?

Over the last 4 years, no. Over the last 10 years, yes.

 

[cstu]

From 2002-2003 as the starting QB for San Diego Drew Brees had a combined TD:INT ratio of 28:32 and a combined rating of 72.2. In 2004 the chargers drafted Philip Rivers to replace Brees. They also acquired Stud WR Keenan McCardel in the off season. With a legitimate WR and a high profile rookie QB pushing him Brees exploded as the Chargers starter in 2004 with 27 TD and only 7 int's and a QB rating of 1004.8. He established himself as a top tier QB in the NFL.

Plummer’s situation in Denver is eerily similar to what happened in SD. They drafted Cutler to replace him and acquired Jevon Walker as a free agent. Jake is a super competitive guy and I expect him to have a monster season this year (as long as he doesn't get liquored up and trip over his dog again )

2003:84 rec, 1174 yds, 8 TD's.

Top 10 in all of the above (15th in TD's top 10 if you count ties).

McCardell was acquired during the season after Caldwell was injured. What made Brees was having a stud TE who caught everything thrown his way, especially TD's, and one of the best receiving RB's in football. I don't see how Plummer is in a similar situation.