(HULK)
(Smash)
I figured I'd post my current RB tiers for some feedback. For me this stuff is still a work in progress until after week 3 of the preseason, so I'm sure this won't be exactly what I show up to draft day with.
These tiers are for standard 1/10, 6 pts a td, no ppr leagues.
TIER 1 - The Super Studs
1 - Shaun Alexander
Shaun is the man. He and LJ were in a tier unto themselves last season. I see him falling back down closer to the pack this season, but still being the #1 guy to have. His schedule looks like cake once again, and DJax's lingering injuries will keep Seattle running a ton. He will miss Hutchinson, and that is what brings him back closer to the rest of the pack.
2 - Ladanian Tomlinson
I moved him up to the two slot recently. This whole first tier is really close in my mind. I'm less concerned about Rivers than the general consensus is. I think their offense won't miss a beat, and I think LT will continue to find a lot of sucess.
3 - Clinton Portis
I had him the #1 overall before the injury. Right now he's fallen this far. Depending on how this all shakes out, he could move back up or continue to fall. I realize a lot of people do not have Portis in their top tier of RBs. I think those people are underestimating the impact Al Saunders will have on the Redskins offense. He's calling the plays. Which translates to more catches for Portis and more redzone opportunities. Last year the Skins had way more passing tds than rushing tds. Thats not how Al Saunders rolls though. Portis belongs in this tier, and if he's healthy, he is going to set fantasy leagues on fire.
4 - Larry Johnson
In all honesty, I'd like to put Larry even lower than this but I can't bring myself to do it. He was an absolute beast last year for 1/2 a season. It was unreal. But, besides having to play a whole season this year, his situation has changed in so many other ways as well. Uber-conservative coach Herm Edwards has replaced the fantasy monster coaches Vermiel and Saunders. That was a huge knock in my opinion. Then, when you couple that with an offensive line that will be decidedly less beastly, and with the loss of the best blocking fullback in the league, I think LJ is going to disappoint the legions that select him as the #1 overall pick this year. The guy can just knock defenders over though, which is why I haven't dropped him further.
______________________TIER 2 - The Normal Studs
5 - Steve Jackson
Who to put at 5 has been a bit of a quandry for me all offseason. I see this 2nd tier as being close together as well. I put Steve Jackson here because I see the most potential with him. If you're drafting to "not lose" you will pass on him for someone more proven. But, if you're drafting to win, you take the guy with the highest ceiling. And at this point, to me, its Jackson.
6 - Reggie Bush
I expect to be killed for putting him here. I can't help it. Duece, as great as he is, is coming off of a very major injury. I think people are way over-estimating his impact this season. And yes, New Orleans O-line is among the worst in the league. And yes, their rushing schedule isn't that great. But, Reggie Bush is just that good. I think he finishes the year as the 6th best RB despite all of the things working against him. And #1 the following year.
7 - Rudi Johnson
He is a guy with less risks than the two guys ahead of him. Rudi is not going to leave you high and dry at any point. He is a bit under valued right now, so if you do get a shot at him, don't let him get past you. If he slips a little in your draft/auction, he makes an incredible RB2. Do not pass on Rudi for a WR or Manning, you'll regret it later.
8 - Carnell Williams
It seems like eveyone has forgotten that Caddy came into the league and set the record for most rushing yards by a rookie in his first 3 games. Caddy is a total and complete beast. Tampa will center their offense around him. He has had a whole year of conditioning to get used to the pounding a NFL back takes, so I expect him to be a little healthier this season. This is another guy who could potentially slip into the second round of your draft and be a delight for you all season.
______________________TIER 3 - The Almost Studs
9 - Willis McGahee
It has become fashionable to hate on this guy. Really, I can't see how his offense will be any worse than last year. I believe that improved play calling will get this guy into the endzone regularly once again. And there is serious talk of keeping him in on 3rd downs as well. Don't buy into the hate because you got burned last year. This guy is still going to touch the ball 350+ times, and he has some serious talent.
10 - Lamont Jordan
What goes up, must come down. Lamont had a great season last year. And, like McGahee, I can't see his offense being much worse than last year. However, I do see him losing a lot of ground in the receptions arena. Art Shell does not have a tendancy for throwing to his backs. He might get more carries this year, but he'll get the ball in space less and that will drop him down to the bottom of the top 10. He's still gonna get the ball a ton though.
11 - Ronnie Brown
People are jumping the gun on this kid ranking him in the top 10. He's gonna see the ball a lot, yes. I'm not sold on the Dolphins this year though. If Culpepper has trouble coming back from his insanely bad knee injury, Ronnie is gonna see 8 man fronts all season. I see a lot of upside here, but we don't exactly know what is going to happen if/when he gets 300 carries. I feel better about some of the other risky guys I've put ahead of him.
12 - Edgerin James
Ranking Edge outside of the top 10 is smart. Arizona's offensive line is terrible. He'll get the ball a lot, and he'll put up some big games and some goose eggs. If you're comfortable with a lot of inconsistancy, Edge is your guy.
13 - Tiki Barber
People will want to shoot me for having Tiki outside of the top 10. But, I can't get past hearing him talk about how he almost retired this offseason and will most likely retire after this season. Tiki sounds like a tired guy at the end of his career. I think that will show on the field.
14 - Chester Taylor
What can I say, I like him about here. I like bringing in him, Hutch, and Richardson. He's going to get the ball by land and air. I think he's a great value for where he is being drafted right now.
______________Tier 4 - The RB2
At this point I'm just gonna talk about the tiers instead of individual players. I see this group of guys as missing something from being a complete RB type back. Maybe its health issues, or redzone presence, or whatever. I honestly do not think I'll have one of these guys on my team this year, because I'm going to do my best to get two guys from my top 3 tiers and then wait for value later on. Maybe one of them slips and I take a stab at them, but basically I see all of these guys as much less than a sure thing, and I don't want to have to count on them. The good thing for them is that they're not in major RBBCs (in my opinion anyways).
15 - Brian Westbrook
16 - Domanic Davis
17 - Willie Parker
18 - Jamal Lewis
19 - Kevin Jones
20 - Corey Dillon
21 - Rueben Droughns
___________________
Tier 5 - The RBBC Back
This tier is the true value at running back. You're probably scratching your head right now wondering why I just said I like RBBCs, since they're pretty much universally hated by fantasy owners. I like them because you can draft them later. And they may take over a full time role if things shake out in the right way. I personally like to wait on my RB 3 until this tier is coming up, rather than drafting 3 RBs in my first 3 or 4 picks. You can usually grab one of these guys in round 5/6, and it will be a much better value for you if you do.
22 - Warrick Dunn
23 - Julius Jones
24 - DeShaun Foster
25 - Joseph Addia
26 - Chris Brown
27 - Mike Bell
28 - Thomas Jones
29 - Cederic Benson
30 - Tatum Bell
31 - Lendale White
32 - Domanic Rhodes
33 - DeAngelo Williams
34 - Marion Barber III
35 - TJ Duckett
______________
Tier 6 - Sleepers
These guys are the guys who could potentially end up in the starting role for their team and being a major contributor. Its all hit or miss at this point, I wouldn't depend anything on these guys, but its always good to take a shot or two at a sleeper because if they pan out the rewards are large.
36 - Laurence Maroney
37 - Frank Gore
38 - Vernand Morency
39 - Greg Jones
40 - Cederic Houston
_________________________
Tier 7 - Almost Everyone Else
This where I take handcuffs, or real darkhorse sleepers. I see little value to bothering to rank players at this point.
____________________
Tier 8 - Do Not Draft List
I expect someone to have drafted one of these guys long before I'd consider it a possibility. So, I save some time and just put do not draft next to their names.
X - Ron Dayne
X - Curtis Martin
X - Fred Taylor
X - Kevan Barlow
X - Ahman Green
X - Duece McAllister
These tiers are for standard 1/10, 6 pts a td, no ppr leagues.
TIER 1 - The Super Studs
1 - Shaun Alexander
Shaun is the man. He and LJ were in a tier unto themselves last season. I see him falling back down closer to the pack this season, but still being the #1 guy to have. His schedule looks like cake once again, and DJax's lingering injuries will keep Seattle running a ton. He will miss Hutchinson, and that is what brings him back closer to the rest of the pack.
2 - Ladanian Tomlinson
I moved him up to the two slot recently. This whole first tier is really close in my mind. I'm less concerned about Rivers than the general consensus is. I think their offense won't miss a beat, and I think LT will continue to find a lot of sucess.
3 - Clinton Portis
I had him the #1 overall before the injury. Right now he's fallen this far. Depending on how this all shakes out, he could move back up or continue to fall. I realize a lot of people do not have Portis in their top tier of RBs. I think those people are underestimating the impact Al Saunders will have on the Redskins offense. He's calling the plays. Which translates to more catches for Portis and more redzone opportunities. Last year the Skins had way more passing tds than rushing tds. Thats not how Al Saunders rolls though. Portis belongs in this tier, and if he's healthy, he is going to set fantasy leagues on fire.
4 - Larry Johnson
In all honesty, I'd like to put Larry even lower than this but I can't bring myself to do it. He was an absolute beast last year for 1/2 a season. It was unreal. But, besides having to play a whole season this year, his situation has changed in so many other ways as well. Uber-conservative coach Herm Edwards has replaced the fantasy monster coaches Vermiel and Saunders. That was a huge knock in my opinion. Then, when you couple that with an offensive line that will be decidedly less beastly, and with the loss of the best blocking fullback in the league, I think LJ is going to disappoint the legions that select him as the #1 overall pick this year. The guy can just knock defenders over though, which is why I haven't dropped him further.
______________________TIER 2 - The Normal Studs
5 - Steve Jackson
Who to put at 5 has been a bit of a quandry for me all offseason. I see this 2nd tier as being close together as well. I put Steve Jackson here because I see the most potential with him. If you're drafting to "not lose" you will pass on him for someone more proven. But, if you're drafting to win, you take the guy with the highest ceiling. And at this point, to me, its Jackson.
6 - Reggie Bush
I expect to be killed for putting him here. I can't help it. Duece, as great as he is, is coming off of a very major injury. I think people are way over-estimating his impact this season. And yes, New Orleans O-line is among the worst in the league. And yes, their rushing schedule isn't that great. But, Reggie Bush is just that good. I think he finishes the year as the 6th best RB despite all of the things working against him. And #1 the following year.
7 - Rudi Johnson
He is a guy with less risks than the two guys ahead of him. Rudi is not going to leave you high and dry at any point. He is a bit under valued right now, so if you do get a shot at him, don't let him get past you. If he slips a little in your draft/auction, he makes an incredible RB2. Do not pass on Rudi for a WR or Manning, you'll regret it later.
8 - Carnell Williams
It seems like eveyone has forgotten that Caddy came into the league and set the record for most rushing yards by a rookie in his first 3 games. Caddy is a total and complete beast. Tampa will center their offense around him. He has had a whole year of conditioning to get used to the pounding a NFL back takes, so I expect him to be a little healthier this season. This is another guy who could potentially slip into the second round of your draft and be a delight for you all season.
______________________TIER 3 - The Almost Studs
9 - Willis McGahee
It has become fashionable to hate on this guy. Really, I can't see how his offense will be any worse than last year. I believe that improved play calling will get this guy into the endzone regularly once again. And there is serious talk of keeping him in on 3rd downs as well. Don't buy into the hate because you got burned last year. This guy is still going to touch the ball 350+ times, and he has some serious talent.
10 - Lamont Jordan
What goes up, must come down. Lamont had a great season last year. And, like McGahee, I can't see his offense being much worse than last year. However, I do see him losing a lot of ground in the receptions arena. Art Shell does not have a tendancy for throwing to his backs. He might get more carries this year, but he'll get the ball in space less and that will drop him down to the bottom of the top 10. He's still gonna get the ball a ton though.
11 - Ronnie Brown
People are jumping the gun on this kid ranking him in the top 10. He's gonna see the ball a lot, yes. I'm not sold on the Dolphins this year though. If Culpepper has trouble coming back from his insanely bad knee injury, Ronnie is gonna see 8 man fronts all season. I see a lot of upside here, but we don't exactly know what is going to happen if/when he gets 300 carries. I feel better about some of the other risky guys I've put ahead of him.
12 - Edgerin James
Ranking Edge outside of the top 10 is smart. Arizona's offensive line is terrible. He'll get the ball a lot, and he'll put up some big games and some goose eggs. If you're comfortable with a lot of inconsistancy, Edge is your guy.
13 - Tiki Barber
People will want to shoot me for having Tiki outside of the top 10. But, I can't get past hearing him talk about how he almost retired this offseason and will most likely retire after this season. Tiki sounds like a tired guy at the end of his career. I think that will show on the field.
14 - Chester Taylor
What can I say, I like him about here. I like bringing in him, Hutch, and Richardson. He's going to get the ball by land and air. I think he's a great value for where he is being drafted right now.
______________Tier 4 - The RB2
At this point I'm just gonna talk about the tiers instead of individual players. I see this group of guys as missing something from being a complete RB type back. Maybe its health issues, or redzone presence, or whatever. I honestly do not think I'll have one of these guys on my team this year, because I'm going to do my best to get two guys from my top 3 tiers and then wait for value later on. Maybe one of them slips and I take a stab at them, but basically I see all of these guys as much less than a sure thing, and I don't want to have to count on them. The good thing for them is that they're not in major RBBCs (in my opinion anyways).
15 - Brian Westbrook
16 - Domanic Davis
17 - Willie Parker
18 - Jamal Lewis
19 - Kevin Jones
20 - Corey Dillon
21 - Rueben Droughns
___________________
Tier 5 - The RBBC Back
This tier is the true value at running back. You're probably scratching your head right now wondering why I just said I like RBBCs, since they're pretty much universally hated by fantasy owners. I like them because you can draft them later. And they may take over a full time role if things shake out in the right way. I personally like to wait on my RB 3 until this tier is coming up, rather than drafting 3 RBs in my first 3 or 4 picks. You can usually grab one of these guys in round 5/6, and it will be a much better value for you if you do.
22 - Warrick Dunn
23 - Julius Jones
24 - DeShaun Foster
25 - Joseph Addia
26 - Chris Brown
27 - Mike Bell
28 - Thomas Jones
29 - Cederic Benson
30 - Tatum Bell
31 - Lendale White
32 - Domanic Rhodes
33 - DeAngelo Williams
34 - Marion Barber III
35 - TJ Duckett
______________
Tier 6 - Sleepers
These guys are the guys who could potentially end up in the starting role for their team and being a major contributor. Its all hit or miss at this point, I wouldn't depend anything on these guys, but its always good to take a shot or two at a sleeper because if they pan out the rewards are large.
36 - Laurence Maroney
37 - Frank Gore
38 - Vernand Morency
39 - Greg Jones
40 - Cederic Houston
_________________________
Tier 7 - Almost Everyone Else
This where I take handcuffs, or real darkhorse sleepers. I see little value to bothering to rank players at this point.
____________________
Tier 8 - Do Not Draft List
I expect someone to have drafted one of these guys long before I'd consider it a possibility. So, I save some time and just put do not draft next to their names.
X - Ron Dayne
X - Curtis Martin
X - Fred Taylor
X - Kevan Barlow
X - Ahman Green
X - Duece McAllister
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Ive been saying that for months
Hey Hulk, Two part question - Name the highest ranked guy you have that you are concerned most about reaching your projection, and then tell us which RB you have ranked low that you feel has a shot at finishing much higher and why.TIA
