Hunting for Hillis (1 Viewer)

[BBRULE]

Pretty dismissive of Murray and Starks. These guys have a shot; Murray moreso than Starks.

Starks is the starter, so he doesn't belong in this thread.Probably shouldn't have glossed over Murray so quickly to get to Tanner.

Why not? Hillis was the starter last year. First couple games he had to share with Harrison but Hillis started from day 1.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Good conversation in this thread - exactly what I like to see.As for Bilal Powell - I've been on both sides of the fence on him. You don't have to sell me on the NYJ ground game - or at least the philosophy that Rex Ryan wants to win by running 35+ times a week and playing defense. That said, the offensive line isn't what it was last year and now they just lost Nick Mangold to a high ankle sprain. I don't know anything about his replacement either (undrafted rookie Colin Baxter), except that I don't hold undrafted rookie centers in high regard.Back to Greene - I think that the Jets are going to stick with him for most of the year. I don't know if Powell will even suit up this year. I like him Dynasty-wise as my Louisville fan friends say he was their central offensive piece, something I like to see at the college level. Right now though his RB4 behind Greene, LT2 and Joe McKnight - and he didn't even make it to the active player list last week. At best he'll be a special teams guy this year. I don't know if that's more about the guys in front of him today or the problems of not having OTAs to learn the system for 2011 - I'd say it is likely both. For him to be fantasy relevant this year he'd need at least Greene and LT2 to go down.

Bloom and Waldman disagree. They think Powell will take over at some point this year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good conversation in this thread - exactly what I like to see.As for Bilal Powell - I've been on both sides of the fence on him. You don't have to sell me on the NYJ ground game - or at least the philosophy that Rex Ryan wants to win by running 35+ times a week and playing defense. That said, the offensive line isn't what it was last year and now they just lost Nick Mangold to a high ankle sprain. I don't know anything about his replacement either (undrafted rookie Colin Baxter), except that I don't hold undrafted rookie centers in high regard.Back to Greene - I think that the Jets are going to stick with him for most of the year. I don't know if Powell will even suit up this year. I like him Dynasty-wise as my Louisville fan friends say he was their central offensive piece, something I like to see at the college level. Right now though his RB4 behind Greene, LT2 and Joe McKnight - and he didn't even make it to the active player list last week. At best he'll be a special teams guy this year. I don't know if that's more about the guys in front of him today or the problems of not having OTAs to learn the system for 2011 - I'd say it is likely both. For him to be fantasy relevant this year he'd need at least Greene and LT2 to go down.

Bloom and Waldman disagree. They think Powell will take over at some point this year.

I've never been afraid of voicing my own opinion, regardless of what another staffer says. I respect Bloom and Waldman, but if I didn't have the nerve to have a contrarian opinion, what good would my say be?I've been right lots of times, and I've been wrong too. Time will tell here, but I do not believe Powell will be fantasy relevant this year.

 

[RBM]

Good conversation in this thread - exactly what I like to see.As for Bilal Powell - I've been on both sides of the fence on him. You don't have to sell me on the NYJ ground game - or at least the philosophy that Rex Ryan wants to win by running 35+ times a week and playing defense. That said, the offensive line isn't what it was last year and now they just lost Nick Mangold to a high ankle sprain. I don't know anything about his replacement either (undrafted rookie Colin Baxter), except that I don't hold undrafted rookie centers in high regard.Back to Greene - I think that the Jets are going to stick with him for most of the year. I don't know if Powell will even suit up this year. I like him Dynasty-wise as my Louisville fan friends say he was their central offensive piece, something I like to see at the college level. Right now though his RB4 behind Greene, LT2 and Joe McKnight - and he didn't even make it to the active player list last week. At best he'll be a special teams guy this year. I don't know if that's more about the guys in front of him today or the problems of not having OTAs to learn the system for 2011 - I'd say it is likely both. For him to be fantasy relevant this year he'd need at least Greene and LT2 to go down.

Bloom and Waldman disagree. They think Powell will take over at some point this year.

Based on what?

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Seasons are like snowflakes - no two are exactly alike. Some years you want the bell cows. Some years its the waiver wires. Sometimes its about the passers. Sometimes the runners. I doubt a RB shakes out like last years Hillis.

Having qualified my answer. . . If I had to throw out a name I think could be that guy, I think its Roy Helu.

How many rookie RBs have blown up in Shanny's offense? It was one a year (it seemed like) when he was in Denver. He knows what he wants in a RB. I am not sold on Hightower making it through the season. So, I think Helu has a chance to be that guy.

 

[Ariakis]

Jeff see my post about Taiwan Jones vs Michael Bush. Can you add your own take? Mine is that Bush will stay in his current role as grinder and while his touches would go up ... I just see Taiwan getting more and more in the mix as the more explosive option.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

...Right team ... wrong player. Michael Bush is Michael Bush. Taiwan Jones is explosive and if/when DMC goes down ... look out. He won't get 20+ carries but think Dexter McCluster on an actual NFL team. If DMC can be an elite RB1 while Bush takes the GL carries I wouldn't put it past Taiwan either....

I happen to like Michael Bush. He's not as fast as Taiwan Jones for sure, but Jones looks like a little scatback / jitterbug type that is one big smack from a big safety away from being out of a game. Eastern Washington is not just a Div 1-AA program (please, don't use FCS), but they play smaller athletes for the most part. I like the speed and his ability, but he won't be used between the tackles. Should DMC go down, Jones splits with Bush - and Bush's workload increases about 50%. I'd figure 65:35 Bush:Jones - and I might be being generous with Jones. Bush has "been there, done that" for the Raiders, and when you suddenly now have a legit passing game (from what I've seen) then you don't need to hammer the ball with your RBs unless you have a stud like DMC. Should DMC go down, I think Campbell's passes goes up and Bush gets 15 carries while Jones gets like 8 with 3-5 catches.

 

[southeastjerome]

I would think Helu would be on that list. He is my pick.

Helu's blocking will hold him back from taking over the job this season.

Helu's blocking has been fine the past two games, he's been above average.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

My "Hillis" pick at this point is...

Well, first let me say what I mean by "at this point." It means you cannot say Ben Tate. That doesn't count. Foster is hurt and already missed 1 game and played only part of another. Tate already looked very good when given opportunities. And Ward is no longer a threat since he got injured. So Tate should already by on rosters in every single league "at this point."

Ditto that with Starks. A) He was drafted in every league I am in. B) Even if he wasn't, the number of touches in the Grant/Starks tandem should have been enough to put him on any rosters (if he somehow was available in a league).

So my point is: saying guys like Tate and Starks is not going out on a limb at all. They aren't available. And they've already shown you they are decent.

I think a "Hillis" type should still be available in many leagues. And hasn't had an opportunity yet to show if he is decent or not.

My Hillis guy at this point is: Delone Carter.

Reasons:

1) Addai

- former first round pick that has been decent, but not what they thought they were getting

- yes, he was given a new contract this past July, but I believe that has more to do with him being the best RB on the roster at pass blocking (and when your team is all about Peyton Manning - you want the guy that can pick up a blitz); not because he is a stud

- pass blocking to keep your most important commodity safe (ie, your HoF QB is no longer an issue with Manning out.

2) Brown

- I liked him for years. I rostered him on dynasty teams thinking he just needed a chance. Well, he got a chance. Last year, Addai missed half the season. And Brown did very little. Sure he had the rare good game (14-129-1 against Jax last yr in wk 15). But did anyone in the world even consider starting him when he did that given that wk 13 was 4-4-0 and wk 14 was 15-38-0?!?!

- Point is, if they loved this former 1st rounder, then why re-sign Addai to a 3 year contract in the offseason? Perhaps he just isn't that good. Career sub-4 yards per carry. Not a TD man. Where's the value? So he isn't great at running (ie, fewer than 4 ypc); he isn't great at TDs (5 since coming into the league in 2009); and he doesn't make up for these areas in the passing game (ie, isn't great there either - 11 receptions in 2009, 20 receptions in 2010).

- Finally, if he was the guy to take over should Addai get hurt or the Colts simply want to see what else they have, then how come they haven't so much as given him a single carry this year yet?

3) Indy is going nowhere this year without Manning. 0-2. Who really thinks they are all of a sudden about to turn this ship around without Manning? So that leads me to believe that the Indy brass will say, "Hey, wtf - let's see what we got in some others." Enter: Carter. This means Addai might not even have to get hurt for Carter to emerge.

Other candidates that people are writing about are solid choices. But in most cases, they require an injury (ie, Hunter if Gore gets hurt, Quizz if Turner gets hurt, Bush if McFadden gets hurt, Redman if Mendy gets hurt, etc). Lots of decent choices. And trust me, I bet I am wrong (simply due to the odds of picking the "one" of many to choose from. Given the choice of Carter or the field - I will take the field and never look back). But if I had to choose 1, I will go with Carter.

The irony here is I don't have him rostered in most of my leagues. Just a matter of finding a spot for him. I also believe they let Addai continue to be starter for a bit longer. But given everything I wrote above about Addai winning job over Brown & Carter in pre-season due to pass protection for Manning - now non-issue; and Brown never living up to the potential - I think at some point they decide to see what they have in Carter.

Trust me, I am sure now that I said it: he will be a dud. Isn't that just how fantasy football works?!

Anyway, I think Carter is my guess for this year's Hillis. I just think he has more than the "if so and so gets injured" thing going on for him. He has that without Manning, Indy may want to see what they have for the future. Plus you can throw in the "if injured" thing b/c Addai doesn't exactly play 16 games every year. (8 last yr, btw.) Plus little other competition as Brown may be a bust. (Still not positive on that yet though. In dynasty, I am still holding onto Brown.)

So there it is: my "Hillis" pick is Carter. And if any of the above happens, I think we will be kicking ourselves saying, "we should have seen that coming." I mean, isn't that the best test afterall? The one where you talk yourself into thinking you should have seen something coming. And be honest: would anyone be surprised if Addai got hurt OR if Indy after being 1-4 decided to see what they had in Carter since they weren't going anywhere this season anyway? I wouldn't be.

I think the biggest thing working against Carter is simply that without Manning, Indy is going to be playing from behind a lot. Other than that, I like his chances as much as anyone else for a guy on many waiver wires.

 

[Joe Summer]

Pretty dismissive of Murray and Starks. These guys have a shot; Murray moreso than Starks.

Starks is the starter, so he doesn't belong in this thread.

Starks has had the most touches for Green Bay but he's yet to start a game.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Pretty dismissive of Murray and Starks. These guys have a shot; Murray moreso than Starks.

Starks is the starter, so he doesn't belong in this thread.

Starks has had the most touches for Green Bay but he's yet to start a game.

Okay.... if you want to hang on semantics, be my guest. Anyone who watches Green Bay knows who the RB1 for the Packers is as of today.

 

[Joe Summer]

Pretty dismissive of Murray and Starks. These guys have a shot; Murray moreso than Starks.

Starks is the starter, so he doesn't belong in this thread.

Starks has had the most touches for Green Bay but he's yet to start a game.

Okay.... if you want to hang on semantics, be my guest. Anyone who watches Green Bay knows who the RB1 for the Packers is as of today.

Then why not just call him the RB1 in the first place? It's not about semantics, it's about being misleading. You're a staffer, you should know better.