Hypothetical Scenario - Trump Refuses To Step Down After A Loss (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Hypothetical Scenario.

2020 election is Trump vs Biden. 

It's a super close vote and it's a similar ending as Bush vs. Gore in 2000 with the vote hinging on Florida. 

A recount takes place and the Supreme Court rules Biden won Florida and the election. 

In that scenario, what percent chance do you think Trump accepts the ruling of the Supreme Court and concedes as he's supposed to?

 

[sho nuff]

I said 100%...though I guess there is a small percentage in me that says never think I should know for sure that much.

But I think he would welcome that over a blowout loss.  He gets to step down...and then complain for the rest of his life that the election was stolen from him.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

This question is asked of every sitting President.  My answer is always the same, 100%. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

This question is asked of every sitting President.  My answer is always the same, 100%. 

My answer too. 

 

[Max Power]

  He gets to step down...and then complain for the rest of his life that the election was stolen from him.

We call this pulling a Hilary

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Voted 100%

 

[sho nuff]

We call this pulling a Hilary

Not really...maybe a Bernie?  (just kidding Bernie bros).

Hillary talks some, sure...but you know Trump would be 1000X worse tweeting non-stop about it.

 

[jon_mx]

Hmm...Isn't Trump just going to cancel the election.  

 

[Max Power]

Not really...maybe a Bernie?  (just kidding Bernie bros).

Hillary talks some, sure...but you know Trump would be 1000X worse tweeting non-stop about it.

Not to side track the thread, but Hilary is literally on a speaking tour right now talking about how the election was stolen from her as a talking point. 

 

[timschochet]

Agreed with the above. 

But even if he refused to concede, there are only two questions that matter: first, would any officials of consequence join him in refusing to concede (secret service, armed forces, anyone that could force a military standoff)? The answer is no. 

The second question is, as has been threatened in various extreme right wing  forums and warned about even more by various liberal talking heads, if this scenario took place would a significant group of Trump’s followers actively revolt and “take to the streets”? The answer, again, is no. 

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Not really...maybe a Bernie?  (just kidding Bernie bros).

Hillary talks some, sure...but you know Trump would be 1000X worse tweeting non-stop about it.

One actually happens.  The other is speculation for now.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Actually I retract my first statement.  I remember such talk after Clinton and Obama.  I do not recall such talk after the Bushes, Carter, or Ford.  

 

[Joe Bryant]

For the folks voting anything less than 80% chance he concedes in the hypothetical scenario, can you elaborate in detail:

1. Do you really think this? 

2. Why do you think this?

Thanks

 

[Joe Bryant]

I ask because if I cared nothing about ethics or manipulation, drumming up false fear that Trump won't concede if it's a close race would be highly effective for whoever the Democratic candidate is. 

 

[Murph]

I understand the term "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is frowned upon here. But anyone not voting 100% chance he concedes is a great example of the phenomenon.

 

[Godsbrother]

It might be different if the Supreme Court was skewed to the left but it isn't.   He would definitely have to concede.

 

[Joe Bryant]

If I were managing Trump's Campaign (shiver), I'd push this to the front. I'd have Sean Hannity ask him this point blank and answer clearly with no waffling or wiggle room. If the Supreme Court deems it so on the election, it's so. You Constitutionguys can correct me on this. If that's how it is, that's how I'd say it. And take all the air out of the people like Nancy Pelosi saying this. 

 

[timschochet]

I ask because if I cared nothing about ethics or manipulation, drumming up false fear that Trump won't concede if it's a close race would be highly effective for whoever the Democratic candidate is. 

I can see why people think this, but I honestly believe that voters get turned off when politicians spread these kind of fears. I fully realize that Donald Trump is good at this sort of thing but most politicians are not. 

 

[The Commish]

If I were managing Trump's Campaign (shiver), I'd push this to the front. I'd have Sean Hannity ask him this point blank and answer clearly with no waffling or wiggle room. If the Supreme Court deems it so on the election, it's so. You Constitutionguys can correct me on this. If that's how it is, that's how I'd say it. And take all the air out of the people like Nancy Pelosi saying this. 

I can tell you it wouldn't be the result you think.  We've eclipsed the 10K documented lie threshold with this President.  That doesn't include half truths, misrepresentations etc...those are flat out lies.  Pelosi and company would simply say "Why would you believe a guy who's been caught flat out lying XXXXXX times and his first term isn't even over yet" or some variation thereof.  

 

[jomar]

I understand the term "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is frowned upon here. But anyone not voting 100% chance he concedes is a great example of the phenomenon.

what if I remember him telling everyone in 2015/16 that our elections are rigged and how he might not accept it if he lost in 2016, because the only way he could lose was if it was rigged?  should I ignore that or just rationalize it by saying he was joking?  I wouldn't put anything past this guy, any norms that used to exist have been erased, nothing is 100% anymore.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I can tell you it wouldn't be the result you think.  We've eclipsed the 10K documented lie threshold with this President.  That doesn't include half truths, misrepresentations etc...those are flat out lies.  Pelosi and company would simply say "Why would you believe a guy who's been caught flat out lying XXXXXX times and his first term isn't even over yet" or some variation thereof.  

Who is counting?  Is there a lie tracker? 

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Who is counting?  Is there a lie tracker? 

Depending where I go using the google machine I get between 6000 and 9000 lies.  Extrapolating for lies per day may up that total to 10,000.  Seems a prodigious amount.  Over 10 per day.

 

[Murph]

what if I remember him telling everyone in 2015/16 that our elections are rigged and how he might not accept it if he lost in 2016, because the only way he could lose was if it was rigged?  should I ignore that or just rationalize it by saying he was joking?  I wouldn't put anything past this guy, any norms that used to exist have been erased, nothing is 100% anymore.

Millions of people have spent the last two and a half years fantasizing about seeing Trump dragged out of the White House in handcuffs. If he refused to concede the election their wish might actually come true. He may be an idiot and a liar but I don't think he has interest in seeing that scenario play out.

 

[The Commish]

Depending where I go using the google machine I get between 6000 and 9000 lies.  Extrapolating for lies per day may up that total to 10,000.  Seems a prodigious amount.  Over 10 per day.

I had seen it as a blurb on BBC at one point.  I think they were referencing WaPo or Vanity Fair maybe?  Many out there keeping track.  Even if it were 9K....the point remains.....they'd keep going with it and I suspect they'd be rather successful with it.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

With no KFC or golf on the White House grounds he would leave soon enough.  Hell, just place a bucket of extra crispy out on Pennsylvania Avenue and he would come out to try to get it.  Then you nab him.

 

[[scooter]]

I understand the term "Trump Derangement Syndrome" is frowned upon here. But anyone not voting 100% chance he concedes is a great example of the phenomenon.

This is a bit like saying "I don't need a prenup because my wife could never develop a mental illness."

 

[Joe Bryant]

I can tell you it wouldn't be the result you think.  We've eclipsed the 10K documented lie threshold with this President.  That doesn't include half truths, misrepresentations etc...those are flat out lies.  Pelosi and company would simply say "Why would you believe a guy who's been caught flat out lying XXXXXX times and his first term isn't even over yet" or some variation thereof.  

It would have the result I think. You and I are just thinking of different things. This is from the strategy angle. It's about perception. 

If Joe Biden is shouting "Please get out to vote. I think Trump will defy the Supreme Court and seize control of the government if he loses so we need to win in a landslide".

And Trump says, "Crazy old Joe. I've said repeatedly I'll honor the Supreme Court decision if it came to that. You want this paranoid guy Biden running the country?" 

It's a strong counter. Doesn't matter if it's true. Perception is reality in the election. 

 

[Murph]

This is a bit like saying "I don't need a prenup because my wife could never develop a mental illness."

I have absolutely no idea what this means.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I had seen it as a blurb on BBC at one point.  I think they were referencing WaPo or Vanity Fair maybe?  Many out there keeping track.  Even if it were 9K....the point remains.....they'd keep going with it and I suspect they'd be rather successful with it.

I wonder how many I have told in my entire life.  Certainly a large number.  Hopefully not 10,000, but who knows.  I bet its more if I include lies to myself. 

 

[[scooter]]

This is a bit like saying "I don't need a prenup because my wife could never develop a mental illness."

I have absolutely no idea what this means.

When you say, "anyone not voting 100%", it is the equivalent of saying that there is literally a 0% chance that President Trump develops a mental illness so severe that it causes him to refuse to leave office.

 

[Joe Bryant]

what if I remember him telling everyone in 2015/16 that our elections are rigged and how he might not accept it if he lost in 2016, because the only way he could lose was if it was rigged?  should I ignore that or just rationalize it by saying he was joking?  I wouldn't put anything past this guy, any norms that used to exist have been erased, nothing is 100% anymore.

I'd expect him to be swiftly condemned by Republicans as he was in 2016. GOP Slams Trump: Not Accepting Election Results Would Be 'Beyond the Pale'.

Although it is worthwhile looking back at the facts of what he said and the ruckus that caused. 

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I remain of the school of thought that he will have a health crisis.  Overweight, out of shape, under stress, clearly has anger management issues which can be catastrophic for blood pressure.  I see stroke and heart attack this year.

 

[whoknew]

I can't believe people still give Trump the benefit of the doubt.

I voted 0%.

 

[Murph]

When you say, "anyone not voting 100%", it is the equivalent of saying that there is literally a 0% chance that President Trump develops a mental illness so severe that it causes him to refuse to leave office.

Ok, then in the sense you could say about any president. Trump has exactly the same chance of developing such an illness. I suppose other scenarios could also prevent him from conceding such as being mauled by a pack of wild dogs between the time the court rules and the time he gives his concession speech. Taking all these factors into account, I'll still round that probability up to 100%, same as every other president that has served.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Ok, then in the sense you could say about any president. Trump has exactly the same chance of developing such an illness. I suppose other scenarios could also prevent him from conceding such as being mauled by a pack of wild dogs between the time the court rules and the time he gives his concession speech. Taking all these factors into account, I'll still round that probability up to 100%, same as every other president that has served.

True. I probably should have said 95+%

 

[[scooter]]

I'd expect him to be swiftly condemned by Republicans as he was in 2016. GOP Slams Trump: Not Accepting Election Results Would Be 'Beyond the Pale'.

Keep in mind that one of the people quoted in the article is now Trump's lapdog, and another is dead.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I can't believe people still give Trump the benefit of the doubt.

I voted 0%.

Can you lay out what you think the next steps would be in your scenario?

Supreme Court rules Biden wins and is President.

You say you are certain Trump will refuse to concede.

Then what happens?

 

[Blue Dot Orange Dot]

For the folks voting anything less than 80% chance he concedes in the hypothetical scenario, can you elaborate in detail:

1. Do you really think this? 

2. Why do you think this?

Thanks

I voted 0% chance he concedes. In the scenario you described - Supreme Court declares Biden the winner - I think Trump would scream that he was robbed, bunch of illegal votes, etc. 

That doesn’t mean I think he would refuse to vacate the office. I simply don’t think the words “I concede” would ever come out of his mouth. That would be admitting defeat and Trump would never admit to being a loser. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Keep in mind that one of the people quoted in the article is now Trump's lapdog, and another is dead.

Understood. I believe there are still non crazy Republicans in our government. 

 

[whoknew]

Can you lay out what you think the next steps would be in your scenario?

Supreme Court rules Biden wins and is President.

You say you are certain Trump will refuse to concede.

Then what happens?

I really have no idea. The secret service or FBI or someone forcibly removes Trump et al. from the White House? 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I voted 0% chance he concedes. In the scenario you described - Supreme Court declares Biden the winner - I think Trump would scream that he was robbed, bunch of illegal votes, etc. 

That doesn’t mean I think he would refuse to vacate the office. I simply don’t think the words “I concede” would ever come out of his mouth. That would be admitting defeat and Trump would never admit to being a loser. 

Do you think he'd acknowledge he's no longer the acting President?

 

[jomar]

I'd expect him to be swiftly condemned by Republicans as he was in 2016. GOP Slams Trump: Not Accepting Election Results Would Be 'Beyond the Pale'.

Although it is worthwhile looking back at the facts of what he said and the ruckus that caused. 

yes, I'm sure they'd be very concerned.  and then they'd line up behind him and talk about how the Dems pulled off a coup and rigged the election.  I can hear Lindsay Graham already

 

[Blue Dot Orange Dot]

Do you think he'd acknowledge he's no longer the acting President?

Yes, I think he would acknowledge that. Maybe I was a little too literal with the “I concede” part of the question. 

I don’t think he’d refuse to leave the office. He’d figure out a way to monetize his belief the election was stolen from him. 

 

[whoknew]

I voted 0% chance he concedes. In the scenario you described - Supreme Court declares Biden the winner - I think Trump would scream that he was robbed, bunch of illegal votes, etc. 

That doesn’t mean I think he would refuse to vacate the office. I simply don’t think the words “I concede” would ever come out of his mouth. That would be admitting defeat and Trump would never admit to being a loser. 

Yea I'd like to amend my vote. I also voted 0%. But I agree that there's probably a 25-50% he would do what you describe above. He'd leave the WH but claim the Presidency was stolen and never concede. 

As to Joe's follow up question - I think in that scenario, he'd probably say he should be the legitimate President, but because the Presidency was stolen from him, Biden is illegitimately the President.

 

[Da Guru]

I voted 100% to concede.  I don`t see it happening but with politicians these days who knows?  Look at the last elections in Georgia and Florida. Abrams refused to concede after the election.

 

[Max Power]

Will the democrats accept the election results if Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote?  Or are they going to try to change the rules?

 

[Joe Bryant]

yes, I'm sure they'd be very concerned.  and then they'd line up behind him and talk about how the Dems pulled off a coup and rigged the election.  I can hear Lindsay Graham already

Line up behind Trump as they wave goodbye to him and then complain that they'll fight the new President Biden?

Or line up behind Trump to stay like they're staging a coup and seizing power the Supreme Court says they don't have?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Yes, I think he would acknowledge that. Maybe I was a little too literal with the “I concede” part of the question. 

I don’t think he’d refuse to leave the office. He’d figure out a way to monetize his belief the election was stolen from him. 

That I can see. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Will the democrats accept the election results if Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote?  Or are they going to try to change the rules?

Have the Democrats given any reason to believe they won't accept the results?

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I really have no idea. The secret service or FBI or someone forcibly removes Trump et al. from the White House? 

I hope that if they do so they lift with their knees and not with their back.