Peggy
Footballguy
That was the dumbest tweet I've ever read.
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I believe the economy may be really bad right now. (1 Viewer)
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I guess it would depend if she just turned 18 or a hard 19.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yeah, passes like Epic and Ikon have made daily lift tickets nearly obsolete. If you aren’t skiing 5+ days a season, it is no longer worth it, as paying a couple hundred bucks for individual day passes at major resorts is insane.
snellman
Footballguy
You haven't had real coffee until you have head AA coffee. The spoon will stand on it's own in it. Nobody likes it when I make coffee at work, because AA coffee got me hooked on strong coffe.
The problem is those houses are still expensive. We built our home in an area of town that was zoned for "affordable housing" The lot was only 10K, the house couldn't be more than 1500 sq feet above ground, and the garage can't have more than 2 stalls for the first 5 years after it is built. We built 5 years ago (finished and moved in right before the pandemic started, supplies went up, rates went up, etc.) and it still cost 285,000 for the house. This is in NW Iowa so not a huge market either. Our builder quoted our same house 2 years after we built and it was already 20K more to build.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I’m pretty sure AA coffee is made by retired Sergeants major who used to major the same stuff in the operations centers.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't see 285,000 as expensive for a new build, and 20 grand more two years later doesn't seem weird either. Mortgage payment of $1500-ish? Seems reasonable
Back in the 70's, people were getting those ranch houses delivered on trucks. They were cheap, and they built a ton of them. The scale is why they were affordable. They have multiple options for prefab homes.
You see this all over Europe. People with homes, on small lots, near other people. Waking distance from town center. Smaller homes, small back yard.
The system we have is everyone wants space, so no one lives anywhere walkable, and property taxes are expensive because 10,000 residents take up the space of 40,000 people, and complain the roads don't get fixed.
massraider
Footballguy
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www.connect-homes.com
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Have you priced modular homes? I mean not just the price they give you on their site but the land, foundation, well, sewer, finishings, land clearing etc? All in they aren’t that cheap.
massraider
Footballguy
They are only affordable in certain areas.
You are in a good school district, in a coastal state, near a big city? They are a steal.
I'm not saying these are the answer to the affordable house crisis. I'm saying they are an option, and the fact that most towns have zoned multifamily out in their bylaws is a big problem.
All this sprawl costs money to maintain. Costs money to drive through.
massraider
Footballguy
Really need some Texans to chime in here, and put me in my place.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Dunno. I priced a few in southern Maine. Average home price is around 400k outside of Portland or right on the coast. Cost was going to be around 350k and that was on a small lot of land and only around 1500 sq feet
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Be thankful you aren’t in Canada, our housing situation is dire.
My starter home 20 years ago cost $175kUS, a three bedroom back split. That same house is going for 5x that now.
Townhouses that are half the size are going for $400k US. The only affordable “starter” is a condo.
Canadian banks only lock in rates for 5 years so most people are facing mortgage payments that will raise 70%, some are already there if they signed their renewals in 2018.
And the government keeps bringing in more immigrants, we added 1% to our population (400,000 people) in Q3 of this year alone. While building only about 60,000 new residences, most of them condos/multi family.
It is lunacy
My starter home 20 years ago cost $175kUS, a three bedroom back split. That same house is going for 5x that now.
Townhouses that are half the size are going for $400k US. The only affordable “starter” is a condo.
Canadian banks only lock in rates for 5 years so most people are facing mortgage payments that will raise 70%, some are already there if they signed their renewals in 2018.
And the government keeps bringing in more immigrants, we added 1% to our population (400,000 people) in Q3 of this year alone. While building only about 60,000 new residences, most of them condos/multi family.
It is lunacy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Be thankful you aren’t in Canada, our housing situation is dire.
My starter home 20 years ago cost $175kUS, a three bedroom back split. That same house is going for 5x that now.
Townhouses that are half the size are going for $400k US. The only affordable “starter” is a condo.
Canadian banks only lock in rates for 5 years so most people are facing mortgage payments that will raise 70%, some are already there if they signed their renewals in 2018.
And the government keeps bringing in more immigrants, we added 1% to our population (400,000 people) in Q3 of this year alone. While building only about 60,000 new residences, most of them condos/multi family.
It is lunacy
It’s almost as if it’s being done on purpose.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Sounds like I need to invest in Canadian home builders...Be thankful you aren’t in Canada, our housing situation is dire.
My starter home 20 years ago cost $175kUS, a three bedroom back split. That same house is going for 5x that now.
Townhouses that are half the size are going for $400k US. The only affordable “starter” is a condo.
Canadian banks only lock in rates for 5 years so most people are facing mortgage payments that will raise 70%, some are already there if they signed their renewals in 2018.
And the government keeps bringing in more immigrants, we added 1% to our population (400,000 people) in Q3 of this year alone. While building only about 60,000 new residences, most of them condos/multi family.
It is lunacy
sho nuff
Footballguy
Don't forget a new phone every 2 years.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Pardon me?
massraider
Footballguy
Right??? Dang, Canada.
Although..........maybe that keeps people from getting too much house? I dunno, trying to find a silver lining here.
The Commish
Footballguy
Florida is pretty much the same way. We are severely lacking in affordable options. They are allowing everything to be bought up and leveled to build new, more expensive.Be thankful you aren’t in Canada, our housing situation is dire.
My starter home 20 years ago cost $175kUS, a three bedroom back split. That same house is going for 5x that now.
Townhouses that are half the size are going for $400k US. The only affordable “starter” is a condo.
Canadian banks only lock in rates for 5 years so most people are facing mortgage payments that will raise 70%, some are already there if they signed their renewals in 2018.
And the government keeps bringing in more immigrants, we added 1% to our population (400,000 people) in Q3 of this year alone. While building only about 60,000 new residences, most of them condos/multi family.
It is lunacy
beer 30
Footballguy
Was just there recently and a local was explaining this to me. Why? Like literally people are just going to default across the country. I don't understand it, seems crazy to me.
Easy there Shooter
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
This is turning into the housing thread probably because that is a huge problem, especially for those would-be first time home buyers. But overall, the economy is and has been in very good shape. Forget the stock market being at/near 52-week and all-time highs, as that doesn't impact a big chunk of the population (latest estimates show about 60% of Americans own stocks). Since the beginning of 2018 unemployment has been at or below 4% other than the huge covid spike, and we're currently at nearly 2 years now at this level. That's simply unprecedented. Inflation was real and a real problem, but it's now down six percentage points from the peak, and real wages have grown so that the median consumer has more spending power now than they did in 2019. And while inflation typically means prices go up and stay up, gas prices (the most visible inflation tracker for many Americans) have almost round tripped back to where they were last December.
None of this matters to anyone who has lost a job or is frustrated that they can't buy a house, as one's individual economic experience always trumps any data. But this whole silent recession Tik Tok and Reddit trend is bull and has led to a "vibe" that the economy sucks, even among those who are doing just fine. Good news doesn't sell, and the media loves to shout gloom and doom to get clicks. There is also the political aspect, which we can't get into here, but the reality is that whichever party is in the White House has a lot to do with how members of the other party feel about the economy.
There are also still very real gaps. If you play around with that unemployment chart linked above and look at the rates for various groups, you can see that African Americans have a significantly higher unemployment rate. Real wages have grown here in the US, but have not in most parts of the world. And we can come back to the housing affordability thing for the 34% of households (and 48% of millenials) that don't already own a home.
None of this matters to anyone who has lost a job or is frustrated that they can't buy a house, as one's individual economic experience always trumps any data. But this whole silent recession Tik Tok and Reddit trend is bull and has led to a "vibe" that the economy sucks, even among those who are doing just fine. Good news doesn't sell, and the media loves to shout gloom and doom to get clicks. There is also the political aspect, which we can't get into here, but the reality is that whichever party is in the White House has a lot to do with how members of the other party feel about the economy.
There are also still very real gaps. If you play around with that unemployment chart linked above and look at the rates for various groups, you can see that African Americans have a significantly higher unemployment rate. Real wages have grown here in the US, but have not in most parts of the world. And we can come back to the housing affordability thing for the 34% of households (and 48% of millenials) that don't already own a home.
It's not quite true that banks only lock in rates for 5 years. The rates for longer mortgages are just more expensive so nearly everyone gets 5 year mortgages. The posted rates on RBCs website right now are 6.99% for a 5 year, 7.55% for a 10 year and 12% for a 25 year. I imagine the banks are much more likely to negotiate on a 5 year mortgage, so the gap likely is larger in reality. Also many Canadians get a variable rate mortgage. Up until the recent rate increases, you were likely better off with a variable rate mortgage.
massraider
Footballguy
Well, then y'all shouldn't have been bragging and telling everyone to move down there, should you have??
say hi to Texas for me too
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Can we keep the stealth politics out of this?
massraider
Footballguy
We sure can.
The observation that Texans and Floridians have been bragging about their cost of living and quality of life, and are now seeing the results of everyone listening to them isn't political. Not in my opinion, as it seems to me that bragging about low cost of living is a non-partisan activity.
I certainly respect your commitment to policing the FFA. Godspeed.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Most of the world doesn't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages like we do. We wouldn't have them either if it weren't for govt. policy pushing them along.
Article about it (I don't really agree with the conclusions in it) but does discuss history and how we got there and rest of world didn't.
A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages
One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Their solution will end up being 40 year loans lolMost of the world doesn't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages like we do. We wouldn't have them either if it weren't for govt. policy pushing them along.
Article about it (I don't really agree with the conclusions in it) but does discuss history and how we got there and rest of world didn't.
A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages
One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans.www.nytimes.com
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I'll give this a read. My knee-jerk reaction is that pushing people onto variable-rate mortgages just adds that much more risk to buying a home. The type of people who talk about stuff like this on a message board will understand that, adjust accordingly, and be just fine. But given that a lot of adults already get in over their head as it is, it terrifies me to think about what would be happening right now if existing homeowners were seeing their mortgage rates double or triple over the course of just a few years. (Edit: What @The Duff Man just said!) That seems like catastrophically bad policy-making.Most of the world doesn't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages like we do. We wouldn't have them either if it weren't for govt. policy pushing them along.
Article about it (I don't really agree with the conclusions in it) but does discuss history and how we got there and rest of world didn't.
A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages
One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans.
The obvious objection, I suppose, is that we're just shifting all that interest rate risk over to lenders, but that seems fine. Banks ought be better-positioned assess and mitigate that risk than the average Joe.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Yes I was trying to boil a detailed subject down to a sentence
Put another way, the rates available in the US for 30 year are similar to 10 year in Canada (ballpark). But you can do a 5 year for a little less so that is most common. If you want longer than 10 you pay through the nose and no one does it.
Bottom line is something like 75% of mortgages in Canada are set to have their payments go up massively unless rates come down ASAP.
The Commish
Footballguy
Sorry...don't get the politics angle here. See what ya want I guess? What I posted is all fact and not in dispute. Marketing for this state has tons of people duped. My message to all considering moving here is to not...it's WAY more expensive than you'd think even with no state income tax.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Posthaste: Canadians brace for mortgage renewal cliff that could hike payments by 70%
Higher interest rates mean mortgage payments for some Canadians could rise as much as 70%, say experts. Read more
Redwes25
Footballguy
I agree with you and don't think variable rate mortgages is a solution and personally think a 30 year mortgage is generally better for most folks. I think article is most usueful for explaining differences between us and the rest of the world and how we got there. Take some of the conclusions with skeptiscm since a one way optoin for the debtor is a good thing if you are the debtor.I'll give this a read. My knee-jerk reaction is that pushing people onto variable-rate mortgages just adds that much more risk to buying a home. The type of people who talk about stuff like this on a message board will understand that, adjust accordingly, and be just fine. But given that a lot of adults already get in over their head as it is, it terrifies me to think about what would be happening right now if existing homeowners were seeing their mortgage rates double or triple over the course of just a few years. (Edit: What @The Duff Man just said!) That seems like catastrophically bad policy-making.Most of the world doesn't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages like we do. We wouldn't have them either if it weren't for govt. policy pushing them along.
Article about it (I don't really agree with the conclusions in it) but does discuss history and how we got there and rest of world didn't.
A 30-Year Trap: The Problem With America’s Weird Mortgages
One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans.
The obvious objection, I suppose, is that we're just shifting all that interest rate risk over to lenders, but that seems fine. Banks ought be better-positioned assess and mitigate that risk than the average Joe.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Chief Economist at Moody’s - Link:
“Household credit quality is stabilizing. The delinquency rate on all debt stood at 1.82% in December, which is about what it was in August. Credit card delinquency is still edging up, but delinquency on all other loans is flat to down, including auto and consumer finance. This data is for all consumers based on Equifax credit files. That is, it is not based on a sample of credit files, but on all credit files, and it is through December.
“It’s also encouraging that the growth in household debt continues to slow across all types of loans, as tighter underwriting standards since last March’s banking crisis bite. This, along with low unemployment and Fed rate cuts, should result in lower delinquency by mid-year.”
“Household credit quality is stabilizing. The delinquency rate on all debt stood at 1.82% in December, which is about what it was in August. Credit card delinquency is still edging up, but delinquency on all other loans is flat to down, including auto and consumer finance. This data is for all consumers based on Equifax credit files. That is, it is not based on a sample of credit files, but on all credit files, and it is through December.
“It’s also encouraging that the growth in household debt continues to slow across all types of loans, as tighter underwriting standards since last March’s banking crisis bite. This, along with low unemployment and Fed rate cuts, should result in lower delinquency by mid-year.”
massraider
Footballguy
Arm’s AI Rally, Lyft’s Earnings Mistake, and Airbnb’s Trading Premium | Prof G Markets
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott breaks down why Airbnb’s stock fell despite strong earnings, and explains why he’s considering selling some of his largest...
www.youtube.com
Watching Prof G.
They are discussing how NVIDIA is worth the entirety of the Chinese stock market. China real estate is 3x as leveraged as US RE market was before 2008.
beer 30
Footballguy
China is not in good shape right now. Reading the The End of the World is Just the Beginning, the outlook is not good.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I leave for Shanghai in less than 24 hours. I went last April, so I doubt things have changed much.
Sullie
Footballguy
I saw this a couple of weeks ago, this popped up in my YouTube recommendations. I guess because I don't watch much news but I was pretty shocked.
dkp993
Footballguy
With 34 trillion in debt (and climbing rapidly) the same could be said (and is by some) for us.
massraider
Footballguy
Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Last summer, the owner of San Francisco’s Hilton Union Square and Parc 55 hotels abandoned its loan in the first major default. Industry insiders speculate that loan defaults like this may become more common given the difficult period for investors.
At a visitor impact summit in August, a senior director of hospitality analytics for the CoStar Group reported that there are 22 active commercial mortgage-backed securities loans for hotels in San Francisco maturing in the next two years. Of these hotel loans, 17 are on CoStar’s “watchlist,” as they are at a higher risk of default, the analyst said. -SF Gate
kupcho1
Footballguy
I'm pretty particular about who I listen to, but I like this guy as his hypotheses seem to be data driven. This is 5 months old; if anything, things have gotten worse.
Don't Be Surprised by China's Collapse || Peter Zeihan
beer 30
Footballguy
Here's one from February that is an update to the one @kupcho1 mentions above as well as takes on the Israeli conflict. I'm a sucker for Zeihan stuff, getting through his book The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
Danger Close with Jack Carr: Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings on Apple Podcasts
Show Danger Close with Jack Carr, Ep Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings - Feb 21, 2024
podcasts.apple.com
kupcho1
Footballguy
I believe that this is what is driving what's happening in the US economy, particularly the repatriation of manufacturing.Here's one from February that is an update to the one @kupcho1 mentions above as well as takes on the Israeli conflict. I'm a sucker for Zeihan stuff, getting through his book The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
Danger Close with Jack Carr: Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings on Apple Podcasts
Show Danger Close with Jack Carr, Ep Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings - Feb 21, 2024podcasts.apple.com
Unions will be doing very well over the next decade or so.
beer 30
Footballguy
Hope so, it's hard to listen to him and not feel good about winning the birth lotteryI believe that this is what is driving what's happening in the US economy, particularly the repatriation of manufacturing.Here's one from February that is an update to the one @kupcho1 mentions above as well as takes on the Israeli conflict. I'm a sucker for Zeihan stuff, getting through his book The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
Danger Close with Jack Carr: Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings on Apple Podcasts
Show Danger Close with Jack Carr, Ep Peter Zeihan Takes Big Swings - Feb 21, 2024podcasts.apple.com
Unions will be doing very well over the next decade or so.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Carson Block Shorts Blackstone’s Publicly Traded Mortgage REIT
Carson Block said he’s short Blackstone Mortgage Trust, saying the publicly traded real estate investment trust is exposed to a perfect storm of economic conditions hitting commercial real estate and may face a liquidity crisis.
www.bloomberg.com
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