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I can't shake the feeling (1 Viewer)

Verbal Kint

Footballguy
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. Granted, conventional wisdom says he should have another strong season. He's got a strong WR corp in Walker, Driver & Ferguson and the DEF is in shambles resulting in alot of shootouts. I guess this just reminds me too much of Gannon's trainwreck of a season after they lost the superbowl (when he was a top 3 FF QB). He was poised for another big season. He was throwing to 2 HOFer and Porter, even though Rice & Brown were on the downside of their careers. Their DEF was pathetic as well. IMO a major part of Gannon's implosion was he felt too much pressure to carry the team on his back, leading to poor decision making on the field. Similarly, Favre has always had a rep for forcing balls into coverage, relying on his cannon arm to make the play work. And while by all accounts he's coming into camp in great shape, there is no denying that he is getting long in the tooth and he might not have the physical ability to make those throws anymore. And with the current state of the defense, he will feel the same pressure to carry the team.The other thing that is reminiscent of Gannon is his attitude going into this season. I can't quite put my finger on it. Alot of people (most notably McNabb) were critical of his public calling out of Javon Walker during the contract dispute, much the same way that Gannon was calling out his team that year. Favre has vehemently refused to act as any sort of mentor to Aaron Rodgers. It just seems that he's become this bitter crochety old man with an axe to grind, instead of the perpetual boy-at-heart that loved to play the game. I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.

 
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I'm assuming this means you are down on Green Bay players across the board then?I'm curious where you have a talent like Javon Walker slotted on your draftboard?

 
Since you have been a member of this discussion for almost three (3) weeks, I will cut you some slack. I assume you are attempting to create discussion. Your "feeling" is one of the most ridicules I have heard. Favre is Favre !! :boxing: :boxing:

 
The Packers defense on paper looks awful! but Jim Bates is a very good d coordinator so i wouldn't be surprised to see their defense ranked somewhere in the mid teens. They still have Kabeer who is a great pass rusher, 2 big tackles and their young corners who sucked last year (all harris being the exception) will be a year better. Nick barnett is a stud mlb and ray thompson is a talented linebacker who was just toiling in the desert the last 5 years. The defense will not be good by any means but the offense is practically the same. Matt odwyer was on par with probowl players a few years ago in cincy, and their other "new guard" to replace mike wahle actually started the whole year when pro bowl flanagan went down, and now he is back too. So with Bubba (who is probably the best blocking tight end in football - there has to be a good reason he have gotten 28 million :shock: ) back in the fold farve has everything he needs to be successful. I think gannon was a bit older than farve too. People are making it seem ahman will not be a fantasy force becasue of the pack's revamped o line but its mainly because najev is a very good back and wil cut into his carriers and td's

 
Since you have been a member of this discussion for almost three (3) weeks, I will cut you some slack. I assume you are attempting to create discussion. Your "feeling" is one of the most ridicules I have heard. Favre is Favre !! :boxing: :boxing:
Like I said, many will disagree. I know there's alot of man-love for Favre around here, and I knew the risks for posting this without anything concrete to back it up. But past results are not always a good indicator of future performance. I'm just throwing a hypothesis out there that I see some subtle changes in the intangibles that may result in Favre going off a cliff. I personally see his yardage declining slightly, but only 20 TDs and +20 INTs. :popcorn:

 
You know, I've been playing fantasy football for 10+ years and never have drafted Favre before...until this year (in Omega 2 last week). So this is the year he either implodes or gets hurt (or both). I apologize to any Favre owners if i jinx him :bag: .

 
I expect very similar numbers to last year for Favre. He (arguably) has the best receivers of his career and a decent running game to keep defenses honest. I will not say that the O-line changes will have no effect at all, but I think that many are overreacting to that.With Favre, you take the good with the bad. He will have his share of INTs, but to predict only 20 TDs with 20+ INTs is simply not realistic. I can see 30/20 as a much more realistic figure. Injuries can never be predicted, but at this point in his career, I will not bet against him.

 
He's in the best shape of his career and still has a cannon arm. I've seen him in the pre-season a couple of times and so far he looks pretty damn good to me. I think he remains one of the undervalued treasures in fantasy football. :banned:

 
Since you have been a member of this discussion for almost three (3) weeks, I will cut you some slack. I assume you are attempting to create discussion. Your "feeling" is one of the most ridicules I have heard. Favre is Favre !!  :boxing:   :boxing:
Like I said, many will disagree. I know there's alot of man-love for Favre around here, and I knew the risks for posting this without anything concrete to back it up. But past results are not always a good indicator of future performance. I'm just throwing a hypothesis out there that I see some subtle changes in the intangibles that may result in Favre going off a cliff. I personally see his yardage declining slightly, but only 20 TDs and +20 INTs. :popcorn:
Favre is about as consistent at they come for a relatively cheap price tag. Carrying the team on his back? No different that last year or any of the past few years. Favre still has a lightning quick release, a cannon for an arm, his wr corp is in tact, rarely gets sacked and has 10+ years of experience. He could run the offense with his eyes closed.Over the last 4 years his td #'s are 32, 27, 32 and 30 and interceptions were 15, 16, 21 and 17. Pretty consistent if you ask me. Is it possible that he has a poor season? Sure, anything is possible but there is nothing in his #'s, his play, his attitude, etc. that I have noticed that would lead me to that conclusion.

Did you happen to see the play he did in their last preseason game?

 
You know, I've been playing fantasy football for 10+ years and never have drafted Favre before...until this year (in Omega 2 last week). So this is the year he either implodes or gets hurt (or both). I apologize to any Favre owners if i jinx him :bag: .
LOL. That's how I felt last season. I'd never had Favre on my team before and last year was the first time and I figured that ensured his ironman streak would finally come to an end. :D Don't worry, you're safe. The guy's obviously durable and there's no indication his skills are in serious decline plus he has plenty of weapons to work with in the passing game. He should prove to be a very strong QB1 option as always.
 
I subscribe to the theory that Favre is going to have a down year (as are all GBP's). The rest of the division has caught up to them, and even though the Bears' offense might stink it up, their defense is solid. It's quite conceivable that they will finish 3rd in that division. Favre might be running for his life with the OL losses they incurred.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. Granted, conventional wisdom says he should have another strong season. He's got a strong WR corp in Walker, Driver & Ferguson and the DEF is in shambles resulting in alot of shootouts. I guess this just reminds me too much of Gannon's trainwreck of a season after they lost the superbowl (when he was a top 3 FF QB).
Favre won't have an implosion ala Gannon. Gannon's implosion came the season after their loss the in the Superbowl to TB. In which Gannon was HORRIBLE, and the Raiders were destroyed.
He was poised for another big season. He was throwing to 2 HOFer and Porter, even though Rice & Brown were on the downside of their careers. Their DEF was pathetic as well. IMO a major part of Gannon's implosion was he felt too much pressure to carry the team on his back, leading to poor decision making on the field. Similarly, Favre has always had a rep for forcing balls into coverage, relying on his cannon arm to make the play work. And while by all accounts he's coming into camp in great shape, there is no denying that he is getting long in the tooth and he might not have the physical ability to make those throws anymore. And with the current state of the defense, he will feel the same pressure to carry the team.
Gannon couldn't get the monkey off of his back after his miserable failure in the SB. Not too mention that he was two years removed from Gruden, who IMO was more responsible for Gannon's rise than anything else.
The other thing that is reminiscent of Gannon is his attitude going into this season. I can't quite put my finger on it. Alot of people (most notably McNabb) were critical of his public calling out of Javon Walker during the contract dispute, much the same way that Gannon was calling out his team that year. Favre has vehemently refused to act as any sort of mentor to Aaron Rodgers. It just seems that he's become this bitter crochety old man with an axe to grind, instead of the perpetual boy-at-heart that loved to play the game.

I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
The whole calling Walker out thing has been debated to death here, some think it was the mark of a leader, others don't. McNabb has no idea what it is be a leader (I will take heat for that) Favre does IMO. I think Favre's unwillingness to mentor Rodgers stems from how Favre developed as a player, he asked the questions, he had the drive to learn and succeed. Maybe he feels that one needs the desire and willingness to get involved is the key and not some player helping you along. I don't agree with that, but it is what it is.And would care to expound on this Ax Brett has to grind? He put more effort into this off season than he has in many many years. To me that's not an axe to grind, it's a sign of willingness to do what it takes to be successful.

 
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I don't really see the similiarities between Farve abd Gannon. Farve is about 5 years younger than Gannon was, Farve's WR's are just entering their prime the opposite of what was happening to Gannon, Ahman is much better than Garner/Wheatley and while the defense is bad I do think Bates will keep them mediocre.

 
I think Favre's unwillingness to mentor Rodgers
This really has been greatly misrepresented. Favre never said he wouldn't mentor Rodgers and he never said he wouldn't help the kid out. What he did say was he's not being paid to coach him. And he's right; he's not. But he clearly said that if Rodgers has questions he'll answer them. The idea that Favre isn't willing to help Rodgers out is simply not true. Even Rodgers has said that and has said Favre has been there to talk to him when he's had questions.
 
Its hard to assume Favre will let his production slip to the point he is being criticized. Simillar to Robert Smith's exodus, but not nearly as abrupt, Farve will ride off to the sunset on a high horse. Unfortunately, it will not be after a playoff loss and certainly not with another flashy piece of jewelry. The Packers could struggle to mediocrity this season based on the emergence of talent in Detroit and the additions Minnesota has made on defense. With that being said, its tough to see Farve throwing for 30 touchdowns this year. If you look closely at the numbers, Farve had some amazing years a while back, his production slipped alot and he subsequently regained top form. I can see Farve's production falling somewhere between those lackluster years and last year

 
I think the part you are missing from the fantasy perspective is the "playing catch-up" part. Favre will throw his share off TDs and probably more than his share of INTs. But since TDs usually count 3 to 4 times more, I think it safe to say he will be a top 12 QB.

 
I don't really see the similiarities between Farve abd Gannon. Farve is about 5 years younger than Gannon was, Farve's WR's are just entering their prime the opposite of what was happening to Gannon, Ahman is much better than Garner/Wheatley and while the defense is bad I do think Bates will keep them mediocre.
Also, the key to Gannon's demise is injuries. The year after the SB run, he was injured and couldn't play the entire season. Last year, Gannon actually got off to a very good start. But for reason's i'll probably never understand, he attempted to "truck" Derrick Brooks in game 3 vs. Tampa Bay, and that essentially ended his career with a broken neck.. Favre is in excellent shape, and i think has not missed a game in 7-8 years..
 
I think Favre's unwillingness to mentor Rodgers
This really has been greatly misrepresented. Favre never said he wouldn't mentor Rodgers and he never said he wouldn't help the kid out. What he did say was he's not being paid to coach him. And he's right; he's not. But he clearly said that if Rodgers has questions he'll answer them. The idea that Favre isn't willing to help Rodgers out is simply not true. Even Rodgers has said that and has said Favre has been there to talk to him when he's had questions.
Exactly. Ron Jaworski stated that Favre's comments were exactly the way it is in the NFL with QBs. The experienced players will help the young guys if they ask for help but they have enough to do to worry about mentoring a player.
 
Favre has traditionally feasted on the Vikings twice a year. Anybody but me have the feeling that with the addition of Sharper, this is about to change?Having said that, the other factor to consider is the Brett Favre Farewell Tour that MNF has scheduled this year (3 MNF games and one SNF game). I suspect the spotlight will bring out his best.

 
Favre has traditionally feasted on the Vikings twice a year. Anybody but me have the feeling that with the addition of Sharper, this is about to change?

Having said that, the other factor to consider is the Brett Favre Farewell Tour that MNF has scheduled this year (3 MNF games and one SNF game). I suspect the spotlight will bring out his best.
LOL. Favre will still feast on the Vikings and the Packers have been near the league lead for the last several years in National TV games and this year is no different. Don't be so quick to think that this is Favre's last year.
 
Favre has traditionally feasted on the Vikings twice a year. Anybody but me have the feeling that with the addition of Sharper, this is about to change?
You haven't seen Sharper play much lately, have you? ;)
 
Favre has traditionally feasted on the Vikings twice a year. Anybody but me have the feeling that with the addition of Sharper, this is about to change?
You haven't seen Sharper play much lately, have you? ;)
Maybe he can provide some insite as to how the other, still good players can get to Favre though. ;)
 
I think Favre's unwillingness to mentor Rodgers
This really has been greatly misrepresented. Favre never said he wouldn't mentor Rodgers and he never said he wouldn't help the kid out. What he did say was he's not being paid to coach him. And he's right; he's not. But he clearly said that if Rodgers has questions he'll answer them. The idea that Favre isn't willing to help Rodgers out is simply not true. Even Rodgers has said that and has said Favre has been there to talk to him when he's had questions.
I guess I should have been more descriptive in saying that. I meant that Favre has no intention on going to Rodgers and teaching, he will help and answer anything the Rodgers approaches him with.
 
I don't really see the similiarities between Farve abd Gannon. Farve is about 5 years younger than Gannon was, Farve's WR's are just entering their prime the opposite of what was happening to Gannon, Ahman is much better than Garner/Wheatley and while the defense is bad I do think Bates will keep them mediocre.
:goodposting: If the support for the hypothesis is based on using Gannon's career as data, the hypothesis does not stand a chance.

 
I actually have this feeling about Trent Green and KC. They are getting up there in age offensively. THEY remind me of that old Raiders team that fell apart, not the Packers.Favre's receiving corps are all young and pro-bowl caliber talents. Ahman Green isn't TOO old yet, although losing Wahle is a huge blow for the run game (and huge boon for the Panthers run game).

 
Having said that, the other factor to consider is the Brett Favre Farewell Tour that MNF has scheduled this year (3 MNF games and one SNF game). I suspect the spotlight will bring out his best.
Check the record. This has been pretty much the standard Packer schedule for the last 8 years or so.
 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.
Good post. Favre is in the same boat as Curtis Martin. Both have performed at such a high level for such a long time that people are bound to think this is the year they finally break down. Yet year after year they come back and sometimes look better than ever. One year someone will be right and think they are a genius but I am willing to say that I won't doubt Favre or Martin until they finally hang em up. They are both rare talents.....
 
Everyone is untitled to their opinion. I respectfully diasagree.From all accounts Favre is in the best shape of his life....he has been more serious about his conditioning this off-season. He has great weapons, and a crappy D. I expect Favre to hit close to 4000 yards and 27-30 TD's.Edit...Crappy grammar

 
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I would agree with the vast majority defending Favre in this thread. Offseason reports and the preseason have all pointed to a rededicated Brett. Not only physically, but psychologically and emotionally. There have been several articles over the past couple of months highlighting how much more dedicated he is after a couple years of facing tragedy in his family. Here are two:

"Favre passes refresher course"

"Favre has renewed outlook"

They certainly point to someone who has a new lease on life. He seems much more focused on football than he has over the last few seasons. And the preseason has shown that to us as well. Who knows? Maybe his season won't be like years past, but I don't think it will be because of Favre himself.

 
I can't shake the feeling, that Favre implodes this year
That's interesting, because I can't shake the feeling that he may put up the best fantasy numbers of his career. He is very focused, in great shape, has arguably the best WR corps has a suspect defense and seems motivated to prove that he's not ready to be supplanted by Rodgers.
 
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I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.
Look, if you disagree, fine. But don't condescend to me just because I have a contrarian view. In my opinion, stats while useful, only show what has happened in the past and don't paint the whole picture. I try to look for forward indicators. Said another way, if you wait to see a downward trend in his stats, you're probably already sunk. And for every Curtis Martin that defies the critics, I can name an guy who had great stats in the past, looked primed for a big year and fell flat on his face. Like I said earlier, I realize that this would seem controversial, but I not flaming anyone or fishing. I just see Favre's situation differently and wanted to discuss it instead of having yet another "LT or SA" thread.

 
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Like I said don't agree with you...but if you also told my Drew Brees would be a Top 5 QB I would have thought you were crazy too.Glad to see you stick to your guns, even though I don't share your opinion.

 
Look, if you disagree, fine. But don't condescend to me just because I have a contrarian view. In my opinion, stats while useful, only show what has happened in the past and don't paint the whole picture. I try to look for forward indicators. Said another way, if you wait to see a downward trend in his stats, you're probably already sunk. And for every Curtis Martin that defies the critics, I can name an guy who had great stats in the past, looked primed for a big year and fell flat on his face.

Like I said earlier, I realize that this would seem controversial, but I not flaming anyone or fishing. I just see Favre's situation differently and wanted to discuss it instead of having yet another "LT or SA" thread.
Sorry bro - did not mean to be condescending. Apologies if it came out that way.
 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations....

It just seems that he's become this bitter crochety old man with an axe to grind, instead of the perpetual boy-at-heart that loved to play the game.

I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Hey Verbal, Can you read (or re-read) the articles I shared in my post and help me understand how he's being a "bitter crotchety old man with an axe to grind"? I admire you for having an opinion, but I am trying to find evidence of this portrayal of Favre. The man definitely has an opinion and puts it out there, but hardly seems bitter. In fact, many reports out of Green Bay are stating how renewed he seems. And the (admittedly rather limited) evidence during preseason shows me much of the same. If I had to guess right now from the positive reports and early production, I would say he is going to have a good season. That could be derailed by some other unforeseen factors in the future such as injury, but I simply don't see it right now.

 
Look, if you disagree, fine. But don't condescend to me just because I have a contrarian view. In my opinion, stats while useful, only show what has happened in the past and don't paint the whole picture. I try to look for forward indicators. Said another way, if you wait to see a downward trend in his stats, you're probably already sunk. And for every Curtis Martin that defies the critics, I can name an guy who had great stats in the past, looked primed for a big year and fell flat on his face.

Like I said earlier, I realize that this would seem controversial, but I not flaming anyone or fishing. I just see Favre's situation differently and wanted to discuss it instead of having yet another "LT or SA" thread.
Sorry bro - did not mean to be condescending. Apologies if it came out that way.
:suds: Its cool. Maybe I should have earned some street cred before posting something like this. :D
 
Look, if you disagree, fine. But don't condescend to me just because I have a contrarian view.  In my opinion, stats while useful, only show what has happened in the past and don't paint the whole picture. I try to look for forward indicators.  Said another way, if you wait to see a downward trend in his stats, you're probably already sunk.  And for every Curtis Martin that defies the critics, I can name an guy who had great stats in the past, looked primed for a big year and fell flat on his face.

Like I said earlier, I realize that this would seem controversial, but I not flaming anyone or fishing.  I just see Favre's situation differently and wanted to discuss it instead of having yet another "LT or SA" thread.
Sorry bro - did not mean to be condescending. Apologies if it came out that way.
:suds: Its cool. Maybe I should have earned some street cred before posting something like this. :D
You don't need to earn street cred, all you have to do is command respect like LHUCKS.
 
Favre has traditionally feasted on the Vikings twice a year. Anybody but me have the feeling that with the addition of Sharper, this is about to change?

Having said that, the other factor to consider is the Brett Favre Farewell Tour that MNF has scheduled this year (3 MNF games and one SNF game). I suspect the spotlight will bring out his best.
Farve has had at least one bad game against the Vikings in each of the last four seasons. In 2001 he totaled only 338 yds, and 2 tds in the two games they played, he had 3 int's against them in 2002 week 11, 4 int's against them in 2003 week 1, and 4 int's against them in the 2004 playoff's.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations....

It just seems that he's become this bitter crochety old man with an axe to grind, instead of the perpetual boy-at-heart that loved to play the game.

I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Hey Verbal, Can you read (or re-read) the articles I shared in my post and help me understand how he's being a "bitter crotchety old man with an axe to grind"? I admire you for having an opinion, but I am trying to find evidence of this portrayal of Favre. The man definitely has an opinion and puts it out there, but hardly seems bitter. In fact, many reports out of Green Bay are stating how renewed he seems. And the (admittedly rather limited) evidence during preseason shows me much of the same. If I had to guess right now from the positive reports and early production, I would say he is going to have a good season. That could be derailed by some other unforeseen factors in the future such as injury, but I simply don't see it right now.
The whole "axe to grind" comment stemmed from the interview clips I've seen concerning the Rodgers issue and the quotes concerning Walker mostly. Particularly in the interviews he always seems pissed off, and he always has a scowl on his face. He just seems different that the exuberiant player of the past. I couldn't read the second link without a subscription. The first has quotes from other players/coaches saying how much fun he's having and how excited he is to be there which is fine but its not coming from the horse's mouth. It does say he's in the best shape in years. More interesting to me is the admission that the O-Line is extremely questionable after losing both starting guards and that he'll have to scramble more, and that his throws were off (granted this was a month ago) due to resting his arm in order to not aggravate his elbow tendinitis.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.
:goodposting: and I didn't sense any condescending attitude in the statement. It's one of the biggest lessons I've learned in fantasy sports. Keep the gut-feeling for the late round sleepers. When choosing a starter, go with the facts. Sure, dropping Favre down your rankings is fine if you have this feeling. But don't avoid him at a great value because of it.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.
I couldn't disagree more...Like in so many other thinking games(poker, backgammon, gin, etc.), looking at the facts and not going with your gut is what separates the terrible players from the solid players. However, when you get to the upper levels, everyone knows the stats, and it is their intuition that makes the best players in the world so great.

 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations. ...........I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Ok, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. Its what seperates the sharks from the non-sharks come draft time... We ALL have gut feelings. We all have a 6th sense about who looks good and who's year it is/is not. We ALL think we are geniuses who can foretell the future. Etc...

Garbage! ALWAYS look at the facts. Always! Always look at trends and historical truths. DO not allow vague premonitions or gut-feelings to determine who you choose. Yes, Favre may finally have a down year after all this time. But based on all the facts, stats, and history don't count on it. Hey, once in a while your "gut feeling" will be correct, but the vast vast majority of time you will be wrong.

It is, truthfully, what seperates the men from the boys in this game.
Look, if you disagree, fine. But don't condescend to me just because I have a contrarian view. In my opinion, stats while useful, only show what has happened in the past and don't paint the whole picture. I try to look for forward indicators. Said another way, if you wait to see a downward trend in his stats, you're probably already sunk. And for every Curtis Martin that defies the critics, I can name an guy who had great stats in the past, looked primed for a big year and fell flat on his face. Like I said earlier, I realize that this would seem controversial, but I not flaming anyone or fishing. I just see Favre's situation differently and wanted to discuss it instead of having yet another "LT or SA" thread.
I didn't think he was condescending at all. :confused:
 
I don't have any concrete evidence to support this, just anecdotal observations....

It just seems that he's become this bitter crochety old man with an axe to grind, instead of the perpetual boy-at-heart that loved to play the game.

I realize that the analogies don't line up perfectly and that alot of people will disagree, but like I said I can't shake the gut feeling.
Hey Verbal, Can you read (or re-read) the articles I shared in my post and help me understand how he's being a "bitter crotchety old man with an axe to grind"? I admire you for having an opinion, but I am trying to find evidence of this portrayal of Favre. The man definitely has an opinion and puts it out there, but hardly seems bitter. In fact, many reports out of Green Bay are stating how renewed he seems. And the (admittedly rather limited) evidence during preseason shows me much of the same. If I had to guess right now from the positive reports and early production, I would say he is going to have a good season. That could be derailed by some other unforeseen factors in the future such as injury, but I simply don't see it right now.
The whole "axe to grind" comment stemmed from the interview clips I've seen concerning the Rodgers issue and the quotes concerning Walker mostly. Particularly in the interviews he always seems pissed off, and he always has a scowl on his face. He just seems different that the exuberiant player of the past. I couldn't read the second link without a subscription. The first has quotes from other players/coaches saying how much fun he's having and how excited he is to be there which is fine but its not coming from the horse's mouth. It does say he's in the best shape in years. More interesting to me is the admission that the O-Line is extremely questionable after losing both starting guards and that he'll have to scramble more, and that his throws were off (granted this was a month ago) due to resting his arm in order to not aggravate his elbow tendinitis.
Thanks for the reply, Verbal. Reading your comments about watching Favre's interviews are pretty funny to me though. I kinda feel like Owen Wilson in the movie Armageddon where he responds, "Have you even SEEN Star Wars??" Favre's focused right now on the upcoming season, but there aren't many interviews where he isn't joking around with reporters. He's also pretty blunt, as evidenced in his comments about Walker. But have you been paying pretty close attention to Favre? As a Packer fan, I have. Especially with all the talk early in the offseason about his possible retirement. I have watched the interviews, read the articles, and most importantly watched the games in preseason. And I would take the word of players and coaches that are around him every day a lot more than a simple observation from watching several minutes of an interview. Like I said, I am just trying to find evidence of this "attitude" and signs of his demise. Right now I don't see them.

 
I couldn't disagree more...

Like in so many other thinking games(poker, backgammon, gin, etc.), looking at the facts and not going with your gut is what separates the terrible players from the solid players. However, when you get to the upper levels, everyone knows the stats, and it is their intuition that makes the best players in the world so great.
I actually agree. If you look at the facts, etc.. and then make a decision based on that its one thing. But to throw all those years of stats and history out based on gut-feeling is the key issue.
 

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