I don't care about the election (only the financial ramifications) (1 Viewer)

[fantasycurse42]

My life will be exactly the same on 11/7 and 11/9 and unless an unforeseen shock to my personal life happens (completely unrelated to politics), there shouldn't be much difference on 11/7/2017 or 11/9/2018. I just want it done with.

I just don't give a #### anymore - I don't want to hear about. 

"CRIMINAL, EMAILS, BLOWHARD, RACIST, BENGHAZI, MANIAC" 

Shut the #### up already.

Am I alone or do others agree?

 

[jamny]

I'm enjoying it and think it's been incredibly fascinating.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

I'm hoping this election causes the housing market to fall apart again so that I can afford to buy a house in this hell hole they call marin county.

 

[Officer Pete Malloy]

Dynamite drop-in. Rack 'em, J-Stew.

 

[The General]

disagree.

 

[Scoresman]

I care about my local city measures for the first time in ever.  Some ####### socialists are trying to pass an extreme rent control measure that I really hope fails.  

 

[Peyton Marino]

Dynamite drop-in. Rack 'em, J-Stew.

stew hasn't been a part of the xr4ti for like 10 years

 

[HeavyMatt04]

Someone is cranky today. 

 

[E-Z Glider]

Riveting stuff. Please start a new thread on every single thing you don't care about.

 

[joffer]

congrats?

 

[Peyton Marino]

lots of people caring about this thing. not me - i don't give a ####,,

*starts thread about thing and argues about it for 10 pages*

 

[fantasycurse42]

Riveting stuff. Please start a new thread on every single thing you don't care about.

These pretzels are making me thirsty. 

 

[lod001]

I just care about how much I can profit from it in the markets. I know all the rest is meaningless. No of them care about any of you. You are all just cheap whores that they are using for a vote. Then they will forget you even exist.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I just care about how much I can profit from it in the markets.

This. Only reason I'm even paying attention at this point.

Kinda why I wouldn't mind Trump - I've got a bunch of powder and the plays are easier if he wins IMO... Sell the indexes, buy gold (safe haven for uncertainty, see Brexit gold reaction).

Sure my 401k gets slaughtered, but I've got 20-25 years on that so whatever.

 

[lod001]

This. Only reason I'm even paying attention at this point.

Kinda why I wouldn't mind Trump - I've got a bunch of powder and the plays are easier if he wins IMO... Sell the indexes, buy gold (safe haven for uncertainty, see Brexit gold reaction).

Sure my 401k gets slaughtered, but I've got 20-25 years on that so whatever.

We need more Patriotic Americans such as yourself. I'm debating going from all cash to all in on Monday at 4:00 for the Hillary dead cat bounce since I see her taking the prize. Then bailing out when everyone realizes she is in the WH and they still hate her guts.

 

[fantasycurse42]

We need more Patriotic Americans such as yourself. I'm debating going from all cash to all in on Monday at 4:00 for the Hillary dead cat bounce since I see her taking the prize. Then bailing out when everyone realizes she is in the WH and they still hate her guts.

The R/R isn't worth the Hillary longs IMO.

If it is looking like she has it in the bag, I might buy an inverse vix leveraged ETF for a day or two and a Nasdaq long for a day or two - Think a rally would be short lived, prob close to the previous highs which aren't that far away. 

The Trump plays are easier and much more profitable IMO. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Interesting side note on that too:

Last time the S&P lost 8 straight sessions as it has up until today was October 2008, total losses around 23% in those 8 days. 

Total loses on this 8 day losing streak, 3%... Just a bunch of noise right now. 

 

[lod001]

The R/R isn't worth the Hillary longs IMO.

If it is looking like she has it in the bag, I might buy an inverse vix leveraged ETF for a day or two and a Nasdaq long for a day or two - Think a rally would be short lived, prob close to the previous highs which aren't that far away. 

The Trump plays are easier and much more profitable IMO. 

Yeah, it's like a coin flip right now. Trump wins and we go down big. Brexit style.

 

[lod001]

Interesting side note on that too:

Last time the S&P lost 8 straight sessions as it has up until today was October 2008, total losses around 23% in those 8 days. 

Total loses on this 8 day losing streak, 3%... Just a bunch of noise right now. 

I read that one yesterday.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This thread needs theme music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QveJv7V4OZI

 

[fantasycurse42]

Yeah, it's like a coin flip right now. Trump wins and we go down big. Brexit style.

I don't know if he is really gaining or just MSM making stories - starting to shape up like Brexit though. 

Market clearly hasn't priced a Trump win. The last 8 days they've been trying to price a chance of him winning in, but they just can't stop buying, hence only the 3% fall. 

S&P to 1850 in days with a Trump win - 10 contracts, $500 a point, 220 points... I'll take Trump for a weekly > $100k profit

This is honestly the only reason I'm paying any attention - these diehard political nuts are such losers. I'll be unhappy with either candidate, but happy to watch either the Hillary haters flip their #### or the yuck yucks who hate Trump crying in the streets of NYC. 

Yea, I'm a ####

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The argument that the market will be easier to predict with a Trump win is ironic, because of course if he wins the market will tank and gold will soar, because it's a flipping disaster for the markets if he wins. May as well go all in on VIX, we could see all time highs.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The argument that the market will be easier to predict with a Trump win is ironic, because of course if he wins the market will tank and gold will soar

Pretty simple to make money when we know what will happen in a certain outcome, hence the Trump trades are easier. 

I don't think he has a real chance, but if I see him leading in an important state that was still expected Hillary (like Pennsylvania for instance), I'll start nibbling on positions. 

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Pretty simple to make money when we know what will happen in a certain outcome, hence the Trump trades are easier. 

I don't think he has a real chance, but if I see him leading in a place that was still expected Hillary (like Pennsylvania for instance), I'll start nibbling on positions. 

Good call. The fact is, looking out for positions taking into consideration all the factors, is smart trading. While it's not sexy, part of the reason to support one over the other are the rational financial ramifications. To your OP, I agree to be completely sick of emails, and Benghazi, and Bigly Deplorables, etc.

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

This. Only reason I'm even paying attention at this point.

Kinda why I wouldn't mind Trump - I've got a bunch of powder and the plays are easier if he wins IMO... Sell the indexes, buy gold (safe haven for uncertainty, see Brexit gold reaction).

Sure my 401k gets slaughtered, but I've got 20-25 years on that so whatever.

This confuses me.  If you are so certain that you know what will happen if he wins, why wouldn't you get your 401k into cash?  I get that you try not to time the market w/ your 401k but you sound like you think the market movement is a certainty if Trump wins, so why not?

Outside of that, I agree with what your saying.

 

[Peyton Marino]

The argument that the market will be easier to predict with a Trump win

lol, who is arguing this?

 

[Fat Nick]

Far more worried about the direction America is going as a whole than I am about this political race - I think the race is a sign of how ####ty things are in America, more so than things being ####ty in America because of the race.

The media is out of control, racism and false racism is out of control, and we're getting to the point where you cant' do anything without risking offending someone. 

I totally think we'll look back at this thread 10 years from now and WISH things were like it was today.  It's only going to get worse...

 

[Todem]

If Trump wins I will be in a feeding frenzy on names like:

PG

CLX

KO

MO

GIS

T

GOOGL

APPL

DEO

BUD

Household products, bleach, soda/water, smokes, cereal, Liquor, Beer,  search engine of our life, smartphone of our life. All things 99% of our country won't live without.

Give me staples that get walloped but have paid a steady and growing dividend for almost a century. Buy the highest quality mega cap names you can on a Trump win and a probable 10-15% correction (worst case). Base case is 5-7% correction on a Trump win. I have powder sitting (25% cash right now) waiting to be deployed. 

Another sector though that is incredible right now because of all this uncertainty is big pharma and bio pharma. Incredibly cheap stocks right now and they have been pummeled all year. A minimum 3 year hold on some names like BMY, GILD, BIIIB, AMGN can be a huge win if you are patient. 

 

[Todem]

Far more worried about the direction America is going as a whole than I am about this political race - I think the race is a sign of how ####ty things are in America, more so than things being ####ty in America because of the race.

The media is out of control, racism and false racism is out of control, and we're getting to the point where you cant' do anything without risking offending someone. 

I totally think we'll look back at this thread 10 years from now and WISH things were like it was today.  It's only going to get worse...

Scary.

We have a segment of our country who are unwilling to accept that the diversity of the entire nation is changing and don't seem to want to try and roll with the evolution of our land. 

I am all for strengthening our borders and not letting in dangerous illegals (whatever creed or color), but it is going deeper than that for a segment of this country.

I am from immigrant roots and without this country many of us would not be here. This whole red blooded WASP/bible belt nation BS has to stop. It's out of hand. What is also out of hand is the other side of that too. False racism is also out of control. 

Sound and logical minds must regain control, and the media is totally out of control. It's a mess. Social media is a huge blight on our society IMO. Far too much information and everyones ####### point of view being broadcast around the globe.

#### already.

 

[fantasycurse42]

This confuses me.  If you are so certain that you know what will happen if he wins, why wouldn't you get your 401k into cash?  I get that you try not to time the market w/ your 401k but you sound like you think the market movement is a certainty if Trump wins, so why not?

Outside of that, I agree with what your saying.

I think the odds are low he wins - regardless, I've made the decision that no matter what my 401k stays fully vested in risky assets until I'm less than 10 years from retirement, at that point I'll start scaling risk down. I'm fully aware at some point in that time, it'll prob take a 50% haircut, I can live with that, as it always does, it'll come back. Until I'm in my 50's (33 now), it's just a number on a screen to me.

Even if you're a top professional (and I am not), you'll drive yourself crazy and still prob do worse moving in and out - most I'll do for at least the next 15 years is rebalance.

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

I think the odds are low he wins - regardless, I've made the decision that no matter what my 401k stays fully vested in risky assets until I'm less than 10 years from retirement, at that point I'll start scaling risk down. I'm fully aware at some point in that time, it'll prob take a 50% haircut, I can live with that, as it always does, it'll come back. Until I'm in my 50's (33 now), it's just a number on a screen to me.

Even if you're a top professional (and I am not), you'll drive yourself crazy and still prob do worse moving in and out - most I'll do for at least the next 15 years is rebalance.

Fair enough.  Im in the same boat.  Im 34.  I max my 401k each year and plan on keeping it invested with a similar plan as yours. And for now, my last year of quarterly bonuses is sitting in cash as I don't have any debt to pay down, and Im not comfortable with the equity market where its at.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I do care.  I was undecided but leaning Clinton until a few weeks ago---and Trump didn't do enough to sway me to his side.  While I don't think either will do much to make anything much better for any of us--I do worry that Trump could create chaos with his inability to understand that his words matter.   No way in the world do I have any confidence that he won't say anything in a 4 year period of time that will offend and possibly cause an uprising in a minority or religious community.   His words can easily cause certain groups of people to feel disenfranchised--and this frightens the heck out of me.   Just look at some of the recent events in France.  Even with all of Hillarys shortcomings--I do feel like she at least understands the power of words when it comes to being in a position of power.  

 

[Todem]

I do care.  I was undecided but leaning Clinton until a few weeks ago---and Trump didn't do enough to sway me to his side.  While I don't think either will do much to make anything much better for any of us--I do worry that Trump could create chaos with his inability to understand that his words matter.   No way in the world do I have any confidence that he won't say anything in a 4 year period of time that will offend and possibly cause an uprising in a minority or religious community.   His words can easily cause certain groups of people to feel disenfranchised--and this frightens the heck out of me.   Just look at some of the recent events in France.  Even with all of Hillarys shortcomings--I do feel like she at least understands the power of words when it comes to being in a position of power.  

If he won he will probably get himself impeached within two years. So there is that. Pence may end up being the guy that matters in the end (assuming...gulp a Trump victory).

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

lol, who is arguing this?

A few posts up from the one you quoted; comments such as "The Trump plays are easier and much more profitable IMO." Totally get the argument too: he wins, the market tanks, that's the "easy prediction".

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyone else make bank???

 

[Mario Kart]

I'm hoping this election causes the housing market to fall apart again so that I can afford to buy a house in this hell hole they call marin county.

Okay, I put a bid on my first house yesterday and it was about 1% over assessment value. It was countered today to be about 5% over assessment value. I didn't counter but the realtor said to sleep on it. I kind of made my decision to counter to about 2% and be done. I'm thinking I shouldn't even counter and maybe just tell my realtor that I made my final offer. 

Im curious if housing will go down and what interest rates will be doing. 

 

[GoBirds]

So do you think rates will really increase faster and if Yellen is out who is in? Worried about business loans.