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I don't get the LeSean McCoy love. (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
LeSean McCoy has had 'one' elite-season where he produced a statline of:

1,309 Rushing Yards / 17 Touchdowns

48 Receptions / 373 Yards / 3 Touchdowns

-

Now, great if you owned LeSean McCoy in 2011 you had a legit RB1. However, if you look at those numbers in comparison to what he's produced his entire career:

1,309 Rushing Yards / 3,866 Career Rushing Yards = 33% of career production.

315 Receiving Yards / 1,588 Career Receiving Yards = 20% of career production.

20 Touchdowns / 38 Career Touchdowns = 52% of career production.

For a player being unanimously being drafted in the 1st Round, it's strange that over HALF his total touchdowns came in one-season. In fact, the 2011 season was Michael Vick's "miracle season" where the Eagles were playing at a ridiculous level on offense.

To put this in better perspective...

2011 (16 games):

81 Rushing Yards / 1.06 Rushing Touchdowns per game.

3 Receptions / 23 Receiving Yards / .2 Receiving Touchdowns per game.

Rest of Career (27 games, excluding Rookie Season):

71 Rushing Yards / .333 Rushing Touchdowns per game.

4.8 Receptions / 35 Receiving Yards / .185 Receiving Touchdowns per game.

+Prorated over a 16 game season, McCoy's average stats add up to approximately:

1,136 Yards / 5 Rushing Touchdowns

76 Receptions / 560 Receiving Yards / 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Now, 1,700 total yards is nothing to scoff at but those numbers don't scream "elite" to me. For me, I would draft the following RBs above him:

1.) Adrian Peterson
2.) Arian Foster
3.) Jamaal Charles
4.) CJ Spiller
5.) Doug Martin
6.) Steven Jackson
7.) Alfred Morris
8.) Chris Johnson
9.) Ray Rice
10.) Marshawn Lynch
11.) Trent Richardson
12.) LeSean McCoy

I 'don't' know what the ramification of a Chip Kelly lead offense will have but I don't think McCoy is a threat to score 10+ Touchdowns this season. I think McCoy's 2011 campaign is an outlier, similar to Deangelo Williams' ridiculous 2008 season.

McCoy, imo, is a low-end RB1 and a great RB2.

 
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He's 24 years old...

His production and accomplishments before the age of 25 rank up there with just about anyone. If we were talking about a 28 year old guy, then maybe I could understand this thread. But I just don't get it. Doug Martin is the same age. He too has only had one good season...

 
I agree, to a point. I have McCoy way down my list of first round guys...and I should be drawn to him as I destroyed everybody in my main league (2011), mostly due to drafting both Peterson and McCoy.

I understand he should get a LOT of opportunity if this offense gets going, but I also see a serious risk of a lot of 3 and outs, especially early on, as the offense gets sorted out. Maybe I'd be higher on McCoy if I wasn't so much less-optimistic about the Eagle offense than a lot of guys.

Edit: I don't play PPR, I would definitely be higher on him for a PPR league.

 
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He's 24 years old...

His production and accomplishments before the age of 25 rank up there with just about anyone. If we were talking about a 28 year old guy, then maybe I could understand this thread. But I just don't get it. Doug Martin is the same age. He too has only had one good season...
If you want to play that game...Doug Martin has had 0 bad, or even mediocre, seasons.

 
I will also add that the projection you posted that excludes his big season to calculate his 2013 stats are still great.

Even using your "bad" numbers, it still adds up to over 300 points in a PPR format, which historically is good enough for a top 5 finish, maybe even top 3.

 
I will also add that the projection you posted that excludes his big season to calculate his 2013 stats are still great.

Even using your "bad" numbers, it still adds up to over 300 points in a PPR format, which historically is good enough for a top 5 finish, maybe even top 3.
I guess the main question here is, do you expect LeSean McCoy to catch 70+ passes in this new Offense? Probably, right? What other skill-players in Philadelphia deserve to see the ball over him?

He's 24 years old...

His production and accomplishments before the age of 25 rank up there with just about anyone. If we were talking about a 28 year old guy, then maybe I could understand this thread. But I just don't get it. Doug Martin is the same age. He too has only had one good season...
I had these same reservations for DeAngelo Williams. He was 25 years old coming off a monster year and never touched elite numbers again. It can happen.

 
For a player being unanimously being drafted in the 1st Round, it's strange that over HALF his total touchdowns came in one-season. In fact, the 2011 season was Michael Vick's "miracle season" where the Eagles were playing at a ridiculous level on offense.
2010 was Vick's good 10 game run. In 2011 Vick and the team were mediocre at best. 8-8 thanks to a flukey 4 game win streak to end the season. Last season the oline was in shambles and McCoy had nowhere to go, but he still led the league in broken tackles. Forget the numbers, watch him play, he's just good.

 
He's 24 years old...

His production and accomplishments before the age of 25 rank up there with just about anyone. If we were talking about a 28 year old guy, then maybe I could understand this thread. But I just don't get it. Doug Martin is the same age. He too has only had one good season...
Age is not the only thing that matters in a dyno!

 
LeSean McCoy has had 'one' elite-season where he produced a statline of:

1,309 Rushing Yards / 17 Touchdowns

48 Receptions / 373 Yards / 3 Touchdowns

-

Now, great if you owned LeSean McCoy in 2011 you had a legit RB1. However, if you look at those numbers in comparison to what he's produced his entire career:

1,309 Rushing Yards / 3,866 Career Rushing Yards = 33% of career production.

315 Receiving Yards / 1,588 Career Receiving Yards = 20% of career production.

20 Touchdowns / 38 Career Touchdowns = 52% of career production.

For a player being unanimously being drafted in the 1st Round, it's strange that over HALF his total touchdowns came in one-season. In fact, the 2011 season was Michael Vick's "miracle season" where the Eagles were playing at a ridiculous level on offense.

To put this in better perspective...

2011 (16 games):

81 Rushing Yards / 1.06 Rushing Touchdowns per game.

3 Receptions / 23 Receiving Yards / .2 Receiving Touchdowns per game.

Rest of Career (27 games, excluding Rookie Season):

71 Rushing Yards / .333 Rushing Touchdowns per game.

4.8 Receptions / 35 Receiving Yards / .185 Receiving Touchdowns per game.

+Prorated over a 16 game season, McCoy's average stats add up to approximately:

1,136 Yards / 5 Rushing Touchdowns

76 Receptions / 560 Receiving Yards / 3 Receiving Touchdowns

Now, 1,700 total yards is nothing to scoff at but those numbers don't scream "elite" to me. For me, I would draft the following RBs above him:

1.) Adrian Peterson

2.) Arian Foster

3.) Jamaal Charles

4.) CJ Spiller

5.) Doug Martin

6.) Steven Jackson

7.) Alfred Morris

8.) Chris Johnson

9.) Ray Rice

10.) Marshawn Lynch

11.) Trent Richardson

12.) LeSean McCoy

I 'don't' know what the ramification of a Chip Kelly lead offense will have but I don't think McCoy is a threat to score 10+ Touchdowns this season. I think McCoy's 2011 campaign is an outlier, similar to Deangelo Williams' ridiculous 2008 season.

McCoy, imo, is a low-end RB1 and a great RB2.
I agree with much of your argument, his 20 td seriously inflated his value to the top 5 in 2012 range where I don't believe he belonged. That said the same kind of thing can be said for many of the players on this list. If anything Spiller's ypc and ypr and Morris' getting ~90% of his team's rb carries are just as likely to be statistical outliers. If you're looking for an example of people chasing a player's carreer year numbers just look for anyone taking CJ2K in the late first this year.

I think Lesean's value this year comes down to if you believe Kelly's offense will be successful, if you do he's in my rb 6-8 range. He is a very talented, young back this is in a great situation. Once Foster, AP, Charles, Lynch and Martin are gone, he's in that tier of Rice, Richardson and Spiller. Which honestly, I think is right where he belongs.

 
So let me get this straight. You're saying McCoy has only had one elite season?

In 1 ppr, which is where most consider his value as elite, here is what he's done in his 3 years as a starter.

2010 -- #3 RB in ppg with 19.9 ppg (300 total points, behind only Foster and McFadden)

2011 -- #3 RB in ppg with 22 ppg (331 total points, behind only Foster and Rice)

2012 -- #5 RB in ppg with 17.1 ppg (missed 4 games, behind only Peterson, Martin, Foster, Rice)

We must have different definitions of elite. Only Foster has finished higher than him all 3 years and only Rice has done it in two. Top 5 three years in a row is the very definition of elite.

And, even in non-ppr, he's finished 8th, 2nd, and 11th (ppg since he missed 4 games).

Now factor in his age vs. Foster and Rice, and maybe now you should know why you should "get the LeSean McCoy love".

 
I will also add that the projection you posted that excludes his big season to calculate his 2013 stats are still great.

Even using your "bad" numbers, it still adds up to over 300 points in a PPR format, which historically is good enough for a top 5 finish, maybe even top 3.
I guess the main question here is, do you expect LeSean McCoy to catch 70+ passes in this new Offense? Probably, right? What other skill-players in Philadelphia deserve to see the ball over him?

He's 24 years old...

His production and accomplishments before the age of 25 rank up there with just about anyone. If we were talking about a 28 year old guy, then maybe I could understand this thread. But I just don't get it. Doug Martin is the same age. He too has only had one good season...
I had these same reservations for DeAngelo Williams. He was 25 years old coming off a monster year and never touched elite numbers again. It can happen.
More victim of circumstance and a horribly run franchise for DeAngelo Williams, guy could have been a fantasy beast for years if they hadn't drafted Stewart and then you add Cam "the goal line back" Newton and he really got screwed big time. Basically in the worst situation possible: A team that has never been leading many games, sharing carries with another good/great back in Stewart, and a QB who vultures TD's.

I don't see the same situation happening with McCoy at all, and as a back who catches passes he's extremely reliable since the Eagles have and should still use him quite a bit even when trailing games in the second half. I do worry a bit about Bryce Brown, but I think Kelly running the ball more and getting more snaps off per game in his fast paced offense will help offset Bryce Brown getting more carries per game(assuming Brown can hold onto the ball).

 
"Rest of Career (27 games, excluding Rookie Season):"

So that means:

106 total yards and .518 total TDs per game. *Add in another 4.8 points in PPR

1696 total yards and 8.288 total TDs per season. *Add in another 76 points if in PPR

Which is still pretty good.

If you switch it and say last year was the outlier then:

In 30 games:

2389 rushing yards, 24 TDs, 126 catchs for 907 yards and 5 TDs.

Per Game:

79.63 rush, 0.8 TD, 4.2/30.23/0.16

Prorated over 16:

1274/12.8, 67.2/483.68/2.56

Total yardage 1757 Total TDs 15 using the best season

Total yardage 1696 Total TDs 8 using last season

His yardage is pretty close but only half the TDs and if you take the average he's probably closer to a 11-13 total TD type of guy.

 
Something to keep in mind in regards to McCoy this season is the head coaching change to Chip Kelly from Reid.

There has been quite a bit of talk about up tempo offense around the league this off season and part of this comes from what the Patriots did last season. Employing elements of the up tempo offense the Patriots set a new record for total number of plays run. This should be a goal of every offense and we may see a continued increase in total number of offensive plays being run if many of the offenses around the NFL begin using similar tactics in their play calling.

For this to be effective you need a good QB to make the right calls at the line before the snap. So this alone limits many teams from as effectively running the up tempo offense. It is also nothing new for the NFL to run hurry up offense. Peyton Manning has been executing hurry up for a long time. The red gun offense with the Bills. The thing that is somewhat different about the Chip Kelly up tempo offense however is that it seems to emphasize running plays more often than the way I have seen hurry up offense run in the NFL, which will be more passing.

I think the Patriots began doing this more purposefully in 2011 but improved on the system in 2012 then later it got more publicity.

I talked about this a bit in one of the Patriot threads but as this is a Chip Kelly influenced offense (based in part on what Kelly was doing in college football) I think relevant here. The Patriots drop in plays from 2009-2010 was largely due to the defense giving up 60 more 1st downs to the opposing offense in 2010 than they had been giving up in the years before.

Patriots offense-

2010 986 total plays 507pa 454ra 348 1st downs given up on defense. (this was below 300 before)

2011 1082 total plays 612pa 438ra this looks like more traditional hurry up emphasizing the pass. At this point the Patriots had not established a feature RB. The defense gives up 370 1st downs, so it got a bit worse than 2010.

2012 1191 total plays 641pa 523ra. This is the most offensive plays that have been run by an offense for a season. The defense gave up 340 1st downs so better. Still not back to before 2010 level. That they also ran the ball over 500 times as well is what impresses me. It impressed a lot of other teams around the league so more teams than just the Eagles may be doing this.

Chip Kelly will certainly be one of them. The Iggles QB are not on a level with Brady/Peyton as far as reading a defense but Kelly ran the offense at the college level with QB who are likely not as good as the players he now has. So while some of the passing offense may not be that effective, the up tempo offense should still lead to more rushing attempts. I think this is part of the reason why people are high on McCoy, and Bryce Brown.

I noticed Bradys completion percentage fell from 65% (2011 and career is usually around this) to 63% in 2012. So the up tempo offense may lead to more dead plays where Brady is throwing the ball away.

 
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All you need to know is that McCoy has been a top 5 back for the last 3 years in an offense that had a 70-30 pass to run ratio. Now he's going to be the center piece for an offense that plans on running 60-40 run to pass. There's your love.

 
1,309 Rushing Yards / 3,866 Career Rushing Yards = 33% of career production.

(16 games):

Rest of Career (27 games, excluding Rookie Season):
So...as far as yardage...33% of his career production has come in about 37% of his career games

And I am supposed to worry about that?

He showed he could be elite in his 2nd year in the league...only getting 20 or more touches in 6 of those games.

He then continued it and was elite in his 3rd year.

Obviously injuries (and other things outside of just McCoy with Philly) derailed 2012.

So its pretty simple as to why he is considered a 1st round FF RB.

So go ahead and Take CJ and his risk...Jackson and his age...and Richardson's crappy yards per carry on that team over a guy who will easily outproduce them.

And I would not put it past him finishing ahead of guys like Charles, Spiller, and Morris. With the talent to finish top 5 if things fall right.

 
I like McCoy and own him in one league, dynamic player that passes the eye test with flying colors. In the back of my mind I thought this post might have something to do with how excellent Brown was as a starter (sans the fumbles)... if McCoy gets near the touches predicted he's a solid #1.

 
You ever actually watch him play?? LOTS to love
^ This is what I came in to say. If you watch him play, it's very obvious how talented a RB he is. I'm encouraged by the coaching changes in Philly and think that his involvement in the passing game creates a very high floor for him. I don't expect him to score 17 TDs this year, but 10+ is possible.

I use a formula to calculate RB "effectiveness" for my rankings, which is kind of like points per touch, but also incorporates how involved the players are in their offense. McCoy ranked 3rd last year behind Peterson and Martin, using this formula.

 
i do not get all the love for seal team six i do not get all the love for superman i do not get all the love for astronauts there are three other things that are awesome that you can pretend you don not understand take that to th bank brohan

 
So let me get this straight. You're saying McCoy has only had one elite season?

In 1 ppr, which is where most consider his value as elite, here is what he's done in his 3 years as a starter.

2010 -- #3 RB in ppg with 19.9 ppg (300 total points, behind only Foster and McFadden)

2011 -- #3 RB in ppg with 22 ppg (331 total points, behind only Foster and Rice)

2012 -- #5 RB in ppg with 17.1 ppg (missed 4 games, behind only Peterson, Martin, Foster, Rice)

We must have different definitions of elite. Only Foster has finished higher than him all 3 years and only Rice has done it in two. Top 5 three years in a row is the very definition of elite.

And, even in non-ppr, he's finished 8th, 2nd, and 11th (ppg since he missed 4 games).

Now factor in his age vs. Foster and Rice, and maybe now you should know why you should "get the LeSean McCoy love".
Great post. Add in the fact that the 3 seasons you listed above Shady was 22, 23 and 24 and it is even more impressive.

And in his one somewhat down year last year, the Philly OL was decimated by injuries. The biggest blow being Jason Peters, big time run blocking LT missing the whole year. He is back and reportedly looking great and they added a top 5 overall draft pick to play RT. Should be a massive OL upgrade compared to last season.

 
Now, 1,700 total yards is nothing to scoff at but those numbers don't scream "elite" to me. For me, I would draft the following RBs above him:

1.) Adrian Peterson

2.) Arian Foster

3.) Jamaal Charles

4.) CJ Spiller

5.) Doug Martin

6.) Steven Jackson

7.) Alfred Morris

8.) Chris Johnson

9.) Ray Rice

10.) Marshawn Lynch

11.) Trent Richardson

12.) LeSean McCoy

I 'don't' know what the ramification of a Chip Kelly lead offense will have but I don't think McCoy is a threat to score 10+ Touchdowns this season. I think McCoy's 2011 campaign is an outlier, similar to Deangelo Williams' ridiculous 2008 season.

McCoy, imo, is a low-end RB1 and a great RB2.
Two things:

-- You crunch a lot of stats but to me these are the stats that are especially pertinent to this season...

2009 155

2010 207

2011 273

2012 200

Those are his # of carries each season.His outlier season is 2011, but was his PRODUCTION the outlier or was his OPPORTUNITY the outlier that season? I'm not saying he'll have 20 TD's again but I do think his rushing opportunities will be much closer to 273 than the 188 he has averaged the other three years of his career. Based on those increased opportunities I think he's due for another "outlier" season.

-- I love the thread, it's great to examine group think with a critical eye, but I think you are choosing not to look as criticaly at some of the other RB's you rank higher. "1700 yards is nothing to scoff at BUT..." when was the last time Steve Jackson had 1700 yards? And how many TD's will he lose to three other Pro-Bowl players around him? Chris Johnson hasn't touched 1700 yards in awhile, and now he'll likely lose goal line carries. Alfred Morris was a great story last year but people are desperate to forget that he was a 6th round draft pick and if he gets dinged up it's Shanny roulette when or if he returns as the every down back. Last year Morris had 335 carries and wasn't able to crack 1700 yards. And lastly, Spiller needed to average 6y/c and have *edit*Fred JACKSON miss a significant amount of time to reach 1700 yards. I'm less than convinced those stars align two years in a row.

I'm fine pointing out the question marks associated with McCoy but I think it's only fair you put it in the context of the question marks of guys you rank higher. You can rank your RB's any way you want, but I'm just answering your original question. Good post and I think the shark pool serves the community best when it debates certain players in relation to their tiers.

ETA Fred Jackson, not Fred Davis

 
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All you need to know is that McCoy has been a top 5 back for the last 3 years in an offense that had a 70-30 pass to run ratio. Now he's going to be the center piece for an offense that plans on running 60-40 run to pass. There's your love.
This. Simple and to the point.

 
Very few players are super special but he plays in a system that seems made to rack points. I like the CK system so I would grab McCoy. We focus too much on the player when we really should try and focus on the system and coaching tendencies, play calling tendencies.

 
Very few players are super special but he plays in a system that seems made to rack points. I like the CK system so I would grab McCoy. We focus too much on the player when we really should try and focus on the system and coaching tendencies, play calling tendencies.
Yep. Put McCoy on some other team and he might only be a late RB1. Coaching and system is huge. Of course the player matters too. Put Trent Richardson in any offense and he will still suck. :)

I think both things matter immensely. Player and system/coach. But we never place as much emphasis on the coach/system so there is where an advantage can be had as you mentioned.

I feel like eminence took a contrarian few by starting this thread. I will never fault someone for doing that. Even if they are wrong. At least he is a free thinker.

 
Very few players are super special but he plays in a system that seems made to rack points. I like the CK system so I would grab McCoy. We focus too much on the player when we really should try and focus on the system and coaching tendencies, play calling tendencies.
While I will admit, I do 1/10th of the scouting that people around here do on the actual player, I have been well-served looking at situations and selecting players based on that. I think it dawned on me the year Mike Furrey had 98 receptions; if the focal point of an offense, almost any player can put up big numbers (almost a little like the NBA).

 
Sweet Love said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Very few players are super special but he plays in a system that seems made to rack points. I like the CK system so I would grab McCoy. We focus too much on the player when we really should try and focus on the system and coaching tendencies, play calling tendencies.
While I will admit, I do 1/10th of the scouting that people around here do on the actual player, I have been well-served looking at situations and selecting players based on that. I think it dawned on me the year Mike Furrey had 98 receptions; if the focal point of an offense, almost any player can put up big numbers (almost a little like the NBA).
And that's not to say that talent doesn't shine thru. I think McCoy is a good player, he came in the league with a nice pedigree.

I know it was college but he had back to back seasons of 1572/15 and 1793/21, before the NFL, he was the 53rd player off the board, Mid 2nd for a RB means someone thought he could play. 3 of the last 4 he has 1600+ total yards peaking last year with 2,146/11. Do I think he repeats the same numbers? No I do not but I always am pessimistic when it comes to players who are going 1st off the board. I do think he is a sure thing for 1,600+ again. I wouldn't cry if he fell somewhere between the 1,600 and the 2,146 he had last year and another double digit TD campaign. The system is maximizing a talented RB, no question.

A decent OL with Peters re-signed at LT, what is not to like? I'll let others debate his ability to cut, his speed, his heart...all I know is he racks up points in bunches. Since there are only a handful of guys worth a top5 pick at RB and maybe even less, he just is a no brainer. Only way he doesn't succeed is injury IMO and you have no real way to know if that will happen. Until last year he missed a couple games a season so I'll just put him down for 14 games, 1,800 total yards, and 8-10 TD...he will still be near the top of my board at RB using those numbers.

 
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Extremely talented runner and good receiver playing in an offense that will get him plenty of touches and focus on getting him the ball in space, where he excels. He is averaging over 100 YFS for his career now. The 20 TD season was an outlier but that is an outlier for anyone, he should get 1500 YFS and at least approach double digit TDs every year he is healthy. Not sure if this is a statistic that is available, but I did feel like Chip's offense seemed more willing to throw down by the goalline than most other teams do - could be wrong on that.

 
The funniest thing about the OP is the "% of career production" for rushing yards, receiving yards, and TDs, comparing his 2011 season to his career totals. Mind you, before this most recent season, McCoy had played in 4 NFL seasons. And in his first season, he split time with Westbrook and Weaver.... so more like 3 and half.

So, you'd expect that he would have 25% of his yardage, receptions, and TDs in each of his 4 seasons... except you wouldn't, of course, because he was splitting time as a 20 year old rookie... so you might expect something like 30% of those figures for the 2011 season.

"AND YET HE HAD 20% OF HIS RECEIVING YARDS IN 2011?!? AND 33% OF HIS RUSHING YARDS IN 2011?!?"

As pointed out above, the only outlier there is the 20 TDs, but its an outlier for every 20+ TD season (DWill, LT, Holmes, Alexander).

 

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