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I have a challenge for you, Electric Boogaloo (2022 update post #43) (1 Viewer)

-jb-

Footballguy
THE CHALLENGE: IDENTIFY DRAFT STRATEGIES THAT CAN PROVIDE AN ADVANTAGE TO THE ROSTER

Incredibly odd format in this league that's been around since populating newspaper box scores into an Excel spreadsheet (1996).

12 teams, 1/2ppr, 6ptPaTD

Fixed rosters. All teams must look exactly like this:

  • QB

  • QB

  • RB

  • RB

  • RB

  • WR

  • WR

  • WR

  • RB/WR

  • TE

  • TE

  • K

  • K

  • D

  • D
Start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D

All TDs (ru/rec/pa) can receive bonuses as follows:

  • 0-9yds = 6pts

  • 10-39yds = 9pts

  • 40yds+ = 12pts
Two other odd format elements:

  • Team QB - You get all points scored from the QB position of the team you start rather than a specific player

  • You can start a TE in a WR position, but not vice versa
Some notables:

  • Top QBs tend to get drafted at least one round earlier than typical. It would not be surprising to see Mahomes and possibly Allen go in R1. On average, the 7th ranked QB is drafted no later than round 6.

  • Given the incredibly short bench (you can only carry three RBs/WRs TOTAL on your bench) means a very active WW and little opportunity to draft flyers/lottery tickets.

  • Given the requirement to carry two QBs and TEs, streaming the positions becomes more problematic.

  • Given the ability to start a TE in a WR slot offers some additional flexibility and opportunity.
Ideas specific to 2021:

  • If drafting from an early position, it may make sense to grab both Kittle and Waller in rounds 2/3. This weakens the position for others while offering me flexibility without penalty of less points (Waller is generally projected one spot after Jefferson from a points perspective if playing the WR position).

  • The Saints situation becomes interesting if Jameis gets the starting gig and they continue to use Hill as the gadget guy (Saints TQB finished as QB6 last year in this system).
Questions:

  • Do you see anything in the roster configuration or points system that leads you to believe any positions gain or lose value?

  • Do you see any draft strategy opportunities that could be useful (yes, be water and let the draft come to you, but things can and do work out)


This league is with old friends and, despite the wacky set-up, one of the most fun ones to play in. Fairly large buy-in, weekly payouts and tons of trash talk. I've been able to get things modified over time through rule proposals (didn't have a TE spot or 1/2ppr in the beginning) but the rest have been difficult to change...leaguemates like the oddity of it all.

Would love to hear how one might approach this draft if you were coming into the league. Thx and cheers.
 
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Gally

Footballguy
As you alluded to early in your post the situation of everyone must roster two QB's and TE's cut down on serviceable streaming options (especially at TE).   Reaching a bit early for the TE of your choice to make sure you get one of the top seems to be a good idea to me. 

I am not so sure about the Kelce & Waller strategy together but it is interesting since you can play 2 TE's by using one of the WR spots.  It diminishes the value of WR a bit if you have two premier TE's.

Do you get team QB stats or QB stats per QB added up?  It may seem the same but it's not.  Team passing subtracts out sack yardage while individual passing yardages do not.  Also if you go individual QB pts added up you may miss yardage plateaus if the aren't decimal based.  May not be a big thing but it is worth monitoring as teams that get sacked a lot could lower your yardage points with team passing yards.  

Since the waiver wire will have lots of options I would focus on the scarce positions (RB primarily) to try and lock up studs.  WR's are very close and there are a ton of them so I would bump the top 12-15 RB's up your list and really try and make sure you get two of them.  Since the serviceable guys drop off quickly this will make is so you aren't fighting for the scraps on waivers as they will be more expensive.  

 

-jb-

Footballguy
As you alluded to early in your post the situation of everyone must roster two QB's and TE's cut down on serviceable streaming options (especially at TE).   Reaching a bit early for the TE of your choice to make sure you get one of the top seems to be a good idea to me. 

I am not so sure about the Kelce & Waller strategy together but it is interesting since you can play 2 TE's by using one of the WR spots.  It diminishes the value of WR a bit if you have two premier TE's.

Do you get team QB stats or QB stats per QB added up?  It may seem the same but it's not.  Team passing subtracts out sack yardage while individual passing yardages do not.  Also if you go individual QB pts added up you may miss yardage plateaus if the aren't decimal based.  May not be a big thing but it is worth monitoring as teams that get sacked a lot could lower your yardage points with team passing yards.  

Since the waiver wire will have lots of options I would focus on the scarce positions (RB primarily) to try and lock up studs.  WR's are very close and there are a ton of them so I would bump the top 12-15 RB's up your list and really try and make sure you get two of them.  Since the serviceable guys drop off quickly this will make is so you aren't fighting for the scraps on waivers as they will be more expensive.  
Thanks for the response.

For the TE strategy, it would need to be Waller and Kittle, as you would be overpaying for the second TE if paired with Kelce (late round 1, early round 2). If it was Waller and Kittle (late 2, early 3), then you're getting them in a place where there is no sacrifice in projected points to your roster. Example:

  • 2.10 - Draft Waller, assuming Jefferson is off the board. They are similar in point projection, so interchangeable from a WR slot
  • 3.03 - Draft Kittle as your TE
Given the massive drop off in points after the top 3, everyone would be at a significant disadvantage at the position other than the Kelce owner. And you did so without sacrificing points gained in the WR slot. Obviously, a lot needs to fall into place to have this happen.

For QB, it's accumulation for the entire team, not fragmented by player. In most cases, this really just becomes a risk mitigation thing across the league, but there could be some hidden value eg the Saints situation.

I agree on the RB play given the scarcity. I've typically drafted at least two RBs in the first three rounds with the exception of last year (Thomas, Kelce, Carson from the 9 spot). Not sure how that would have panned out if Thomas had actually played/been healthy.

My loose framework for this draft tends to be consistent with other formats (heavy RB and WR early, then wait for value at QB and TE), but I don't feel like I get a good team as consistently as I do in other leagues. One thing I've noticed, and it bugs me big time, is that the team that wins the title nearly always has an early draft position. I think this has a lot to do with the limited reserve slots. I could also just be butt hurt that I haven't had a pick higher than 7 in the past 12 years. 

 

Gally

Footballguy
For QB, it's accumulation for the entire team, not fragmented by player. In most cases, this really just becomes a risk mitigation thing across the league, but there could be some hidden value eg the Saints situation.
I understand that hidden value situation of the Saints but would Hill be categorized as a QB while playing slash?  How does that work?

Also, I would stay away from heavily sacked teams as that takes away passing yardage from Team passing numbers.  

 

Benjo

Footballguy
Spitballing:

1. Target team defense pairings based on opponent strength to get as many bottom 5 offense weeks as possible, overdraft the pairing early to make sure you get both. Same for kickers and indoors/Denver.

2. Try cornering the TE market by drafting 6 TEs and zero WRs. Your league mates probably won’t catch on until your 4th TE. By then they’ll already be stuck. NBD if you miss on a TE either, since WR waiver is stacked with WR49 always available to stream. You can trade TEs for WRs but the other person has to drop somebody. Take advantage.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Gally said:
I understand that hidden value situation of the Saints but would Hill be categorized as a QB while playing slash?  How does that work?

Also, I would stay away from heavily sacked teams as that takes away passing yardage from Team passing numbers.  
Yes, he would. Noted on the sack issue. thx.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Benjo said:
2. Try cornering the TE market by drafting 6 TEs and zero WRs. Your league mates probably won’t catch on until your 4th TE. By then they’ll already be stuck. NBD if you miss on a TE either, since WR waiver is stacked with WR49 always available to stream. You can trade TEs for WRs but the other person has to drop somebody. Take advantage.
I don't think this will really work.  TE scoring is depressed after the first few guys when compared to WR scoring.  So even though some teams will be playing TE's 7-15 they will all be the same and although you may have an advantage at one position (TE starter) the other WR slots will be at a disadvantage playing TE vs WR from other teams.  Going with the Waller/Kittle route (although Kittle has a big injury risk) may be worthwhile as the OP layed out but in general I don't think this would work well.  

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Benjo said:
Spitballing:

1. Target team defense pairings based on opponent strength to get as many bottom 5 offense weeks as possible, overdraft the pairing early to make sure you get both. Same for kickers and indoors/Denver.

2. Try cornering the TE market by drafting 6 TEs and zero WRs. Your league mates probably won’t catch on until your 4th TE. By then they’ll already be stuck. NBD if you miss on a TE either, since WR waiver is stacked with WR49 always available to stream. You can trade TEs for WRs but the other person has to drop somebody. Take advantage.
Thanks, Benjo and welcome to the board. I typically don't spend any time on looking at defenses since they change so wildly form year to year. Always my last two picks and I may switch one out here and there. From my experience, no one has gained much if anything by taking one earlier (I remember the Bears, Ravens and Pats days). To illustrate, here is last years TD1 and TD12:

TD1 - Colts, 134 points

TD12 - Browns, 102 points

Just not enough variance to worry about it. I got the Rams last year and they were TD3 at 125.

For TE, keep in mind you can only roster 2. You can START one from the WR position, but still only allowed to carry two. On top of that, I think you'd destroy your team after the top 4 TEs even if were possible.

 

Benjo

Footballguy
Oh, yeah forget that then. I still like shooting for two top-6 TEs as others have discussed though.

As for team defenses, I’d say base the choices ENTIRELY on strength of schedule. So if you go for Colts/Titans, you’ll have 8 games guaranteed against the Texans and Jags. The idea is to buy up weeks against bad offenses, like streaming but from your own roster.

 

ZWK

Footballguy
This format reduces the value of RB & WR relative to QB/TE/D/PK, and moreso as the draft goes on.

If you're considering a WR in round 8 vs waiting until the end of the draft, the rd8 WR is less attractive in this league than in most because 1) there will be more WR talent on the waiver wire, which makes it easier to replace this guy's production if you don't draft him, 2) it's more likely that you'll have to drop this WR soon in order to pick up a waiver WR, since you have less roster flexibility & limited roster spots for WRs, and 3) there will be better WR talent available at the end of the draft, since teams can't draft as many WRs. And the QB/TE/D/PK in round 8 is more valuable than in other formats, because 1) there will be less talent available on the waiver wire, which makes it harder to find a good option or stream based on matchups, 2) it'll be easier to hang on to this player rather than cutting them for a replacement since you have 2 roster spots devoted to the position, and 3) more QB/TE/D/PK will be drafted so the talent there will drop sooner & farther than in other drafts.

I'd make it more of a priority to get elite talent at as many positions as possible, decrease the importance of RB & WR depth (e.g. my RB3 & WR3), and increase the importance of QB/TE/D/PK depth. Maybe plan on using my last 2 picks on RB & WR, since I'll probably wind up cutting some guys at those positions to play the waiver wire. Ideally get 1 of the top 5 QBs & 2 of the top 12ish (though it depends on how early they go, and maybe the TMQB trick means I can wait to grab NO or SF as my 2nd QB). Try to get one of the top couple kickers. Also I'd try harder to avoid bye week collisions within a position because the lack of bench spots means I might be forced to drop someone or take a zero (though I guess starting a TE as a WR helps a bit here).

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
Oh, yeah forget that then. I still like shooting for two top-6 TEs as others have discussed though.

As for team defenses, I’d say base the choices ENTIRELY on strength of schedule. So if you go for Colts/Titans, you’ll have 8 games guaranteed against the Texans and Jags. The idea is to buy up weeks against bad offenses, like streaming but from your own roster.
I like this idea - assuming that some of those 8 games don't happen within the same week.  Worth checking the NFL schedule - it may only be that you have 6 weeks of good matchups, instead of 8...

 

-jb-

Footballguy
This format reduces the value of RB & WR relative to QB/TE/D/PK, and moreso as the draft goes on.

If you're considering a WR in round 8 vs waiting until the end of the draft, the rd8 WR is less attractive in this league than in most because 1) there will be more WR talent on the waiver wire, which makes it easier to replace this guy's production if you don't draft him, 2) it's more likely that you'll have to drop this WR soon in order to pick up a waiver WR, since you have less roster flexibility & limited roster spots for WRs, and 3) there will be better WR talent available at the end of the draft, since teams can't draft as many WRs. And the QB/TE/D/PK in round 8 is more valuable than in other formats, because 1) there will be less talent available on the waiver wire, which makes it harder to find a good option or stream based on matchups, 2) it'll be easier to hang on to this player rather than cutting them for a replacement since you have 2 roster spots devoted to the position, and 3) more QB/TE/D/PK will be drafted so the talent there will drop sooner & farther than in other drafts.

I'd make it more of a priority to get elite talent at as many positions as possible, decrease the importance of RB & WR depth (e.g. my RB3 & WR3), and increase the importance of QB/TE/D/PK depth. Maybe plan on using my last 2 picks on RB & WR, since I'll probably wind up cutting some guys at those positions to play the waiver wire. Ideally get 1 of the top 5 QBs & 2 of the top 12ish (though it depends on how early they go, and maybe the TMQB trick means I can wait to grab NO or SF as my 2nd QB). Try to get one of the top couple kickers. Also I'd try harder to avoid bye week collisions within a position because the lack of bench spots means I might be forced to drop someone or take a zero (though I guess starting a TE as a WR helps a bit here).
Thx @ZWK. Some interesting thoughts here. I'm going to run some numbers here to see how this pans out. If I understand you correctly, you would be drafting your K1 and D1 before drafting your WR4, correct? On the surface, my main concern here would be the variance between K1-K12 and D1-D12. Both only represent about 30pts over the season whereas a rd8 WR like Davonta Smith could present much better upside.

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Thx @ZWK. Some interesting thoughts here. I'm going to run some numbers here to see how this pans out. If I understand you correctly, you would be drafting your K1 and D1 before drafting your WR4, correct? On the surface, my main concern here would be the variance between K1-K12 and D1-D12. Both only represent about 30pts over the season whereas a rd8 WR like Davonta Smith could present much better upside.
Yep.

30 points is not that small. Last year that was about the gap between Allen Robinson & JuJu Smith-Schuster, or the gap between JuJu and Marquise Brown.

In most leagues the advantage of getting a top PK is smaller than that, because you can usually do better than K12 by streaming. But this format makes that a lot harder.

And if you pass on DeVonta Smith in rd8, then you can take a WR like Bateman or Hilton at the end of the draft, who also has good upside. And then you can swap that guy out for someone who shines in the preseason, if that seems like a better option then.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
My only complaint about taking Kittle and Waller is that sure Jefferson and Waller might be projected to similar points but Jefferson also just set the NFL rookie receiving record. His ceiling this year is WR1 overall. I realize the Vikings want to be slower and lean on the run, but there is a chance what we saw last year was the emergence of the next superstar WR. He could have 100/1600/14 this year. It is unlikely but that is in the range of outcomes. I like Waller a lot but he's a TE in a lackluster offense which just has less upside than a WR. 

 

tangfoot

Living Slackmaster
-jb- said:
For the TE strategy, it would need to be Waller and Kittle, as you would be overpaying for the second TE if paired with Kelce (late round 1, early round 2). If it was Waller and Kittle (late 2, early 3), then you're getting them in a place where there is no sacrifice in projected points to your roster. Example:


Going with the Waller/Kittle route (although Kittle has a big injury risk) may be worthwhile as the OP layed out but in general I don't think this would work well.  


I've written elsewhere that I think we've already seen Waller's career year and all kinds of things would have to go perfectly for him to repeat that again this year.  I think if you want to go with the stud-TE strategy above, it would work far better with Kelce and Hockenson, plus that would allow you to get a stud RB in round 2.

Having at least one top-flight RB is practically mandatory in this start-2 RB format.

 

Gally

Footballguy
Thx @ZWK. Some interesting thoughts here. I'm going to run some numbers here to see how this pans out. If I understand you correctly, you would be drafting your K1 and D1 before drafting your WR4, correct? On the surface, my main concern here would be the variance between K1-K12 and D1-D12. Both only represent about 30pts over the season whereas a rd8 WR like Davonta Smith could present much better upside.


Yep.

30 points is not that small. Last year that was about the gap between Allen Robinson & JuJu Smith-Schuster, or the gap between JuJu and Marquise Brown.

In most leagues the advantage of getting a top PK is smaller than that, because you can usually do better than K12 by streaming. But this format makes that a lot harder.

And if you pass on DeVonta Smith in rd8, then you can take a WR like Bateman or Hilton at the end of the draft, who also has good upside. And then you can swap that guy out for someone who shines in the preseason, if that seems like a better option then.
The issue though is that those K and DEF are unknown.  Meaning the top guys are always moving up and down year to year (especially K).  I still wouldn't worry about those spots until the very end.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
I've written elsewhere that I think we've already seen Waller's career year and all kinds of things would have to go perfectly for him to repeat that again this year.  I think if you want to go with the stud-TE strategy above, it would work far better with Kelce and Hockenson, plus that would allow you to get a stud RB in round 2.

Having at least one top-flight RB is practically mandatory in this start-2 RB format.


Thx @tangfoot. I had the same thought regarding a Hockenson or Andrews. What I need to determine is whether or not their projected points are similar to that of a WR going in a similar spot. It also has less of an effect by not removing nearly as much production from the TE pool. I ran a mock on the first scenario (Waller/Kittle), and did wince at not taking another RB. Possible that a Montgomery type could fall in the back of the fourth given how many QBs go (likely 5 by end of round 4 in this league), but that may not be worth it.

 

ZWK

Footballguy
Tucker & Butker have pretty consistently been near the top in kicker scoring - those are the 2 I'd be targeting. (Used to be Gostkowski, in the heyday for him & the Pats.)

If I was in this league I might look at a) how many kicker points you would've gotten over the past 3 years if you had Tucker plus a bye week fill-in, b) same but with Butker, and c) how many kicker points the average team in this league got over the past 3 years. That'll give you a ballpark estimate of how big an advantage they are.

 

ratbast

Footballguy
Tier your rankings and follow them to optimize your #1 Qb, WR, RB and TE. Then BPA and get ready to trade. Punt your last RB and WR spots or even after 2 each. Work WW there will be plenty RBs and WRs. 

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Tier your rankings and follow them to optimize your #1 Qb, WR, RB and TE. Then BPA and get ready to trade. Punt your last RB and WR spots or even after 2 each. Work WW there will be plenty RBs and WRs. 
Can you elaborate here?

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Tucker & Butker have pretty consistently been near the top in kicker scoring - those are the 2 I'd be targeting. (Used to be Gostkowski, in the heyday for him & the Pats.)

If I was in this league I might look at a) how many kicker points you would've gotten over the past 3 years if you had Tucker plus a bye week fill-in, b) same but with Butker, and c) how many kicker points the average team in this league got over the past 3 years. That'll give you a ballpark estimate of how big an advantage they are.


Interesting. Both Tucker and Butker averaged roughly 9pts over the last 3 years. The league average over that same span (average of K1-K12) was 6.5. So 2.5ppg.

Tucker/Butker finishes as follows...

  • 2020 - JT was K8 / HB was K9
  • 2019 - JT was K3 / HB was K1
  • 2018 - JT was K2 / HB was K3
 

ZWK

Footballguy
Interesting. Both Tucker and Butker averaged roughly 9pts over the last 3 years. The league average over that same span (average of K1-K12) was 6.5. So 2.5ppg.

Tucker/Butker finishes as follows...

  • 2020 - JT was K8 / HB was K9
  • 2019 - JT was K3 / HB was K1
  • 2018 - JT was K2 / HB was K3
If you can, I'd look at the actual kicker starters in your league over those seasons (rather than just averaging K1-K12). On MFL, that's in the Starter Points By Position page. That incorporates the effects that your league rules have on kicker availability.

You could also look at how many kicker points your team in particular had, which would account for (e.g.) you being better than average at playing the waiver wire & streaming matchups, though it's a noisier measure since it has 1/12 the sample size.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
If you can, I'd look at the actual kicker starters in your league over those seasons (rather than just averaging K1-K12). On MFL, that's in the Starter Points By Position page. That incorporates the effects that your league rules have on kicker availability.

You could also look at how many kicker points your team in particular had, which would account for (e.g.) you being better than average at playing the waiver wire & streaming matchups, though it's a noisier measure since it has 1/12 the sample size.


not on mfl and don't have that stat. would prefer not to pull up every individual week for every team for three years, so will noodle on another way to measure. thx for the engagement on this.

 

ratbast

Footballguy
Can you elaborate here?
Get as top tier as you can get for QB1,RB1,WR1,TE1, tiering allows to see the drop offs. The amount of RBs and WRs dropped and undrafted means you want to be able to take advantage of that. Short term injury and bye weeks reek havoc on RB and WR depth in these leagues. Good RBs and WRs will be available. So much that trading any that aren’t top dogs is tough because they can pick up someone close. Your depth is controlled. Leaving churning spots is smart. Since you can play two TEs those are obviously valuable, but you can only roster 2 still. Playing a TE at WR looks juicy until you realize the strength of your WRs and WR FAs. I would target a back up TE with late bye week so you dont have to drop WR depth. On that note, bye weeks are much more important to diversify your depth. 
Id also try and target a stud D. You will need your D2 once and only once. I suspect they will go early and mediocre depth is almost impossible to trade. Use back up Ds and Ks as sweeteners. That said, i liked having strong back up qb. For trade or security, Some will see an injury and get scared to trade their back up when you need it most. 

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Get as top tier as you can get for QB1,RB1,WR1,TE1, tiering allows to see the drop offs. The amount of RBs and WRs dropped and undrafted means you want to be able to take advantage of that. Short term injury and bye weeks reek havoc on RB and WR depth in these leagues. Good RBs and WRs will be available. So much that trading any that aren’t top dogs is tough because they can pick up someone close. Your depth is controlled. Leaving churning spots is smart. Since you can play two TEs those are obviously valuable, but you can only roster 2 still. Playing a TE at WR looks juicy until you realize the strength of your WRs and WR FAs. I would target a back up TE with late bye week so you dont have to drop WR depth. On that note, bye weeks are much more important to diversify your depth. 
Id also try and target a stud D. You will need your D2 once and only once. I suspect they will go early and mediocre depth is almost impossible to trade. Use back up Ds and Ks as sweeteners. That said, i liked having strong back up qb. For trade or security, Some will see an injury and get scared to trade their back up when you need it most. 
I get what you mean now, thx. Based on getting the best QB1/RB1/WR1/QB1. In theory, that would likely be drafted RB/TE/WR/QB based on ADP (with the exception of taking Kelce early). I’ll look at this a bit more. Thx. 

 

ratbast

Footballguy
I get what you mean now, thx. Based on getting the best QB1/RB1/WR1/QB1. In theory, that would likely be drafted RB/TE/WR/QB based on ADP (with the exception of taking Kelce early). I’ll look at this a bit more. Thx. 
I’d ignore adp. Especially after first couple of rounds. Tier your players within their positions and draft accordingly. You might see QBs go much earlier than you would normally. Id suspect the good ones will go very early. This is why tiering your players is key.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
I’d ignore adp. Especially after first couple of rounds. Tier your players within their positions and draft accordingly. You might see QBs go much earlier than you would normally. Id suspect the good ones will go very early. This is why tiering your players is key.
I get it, but I’ve also drafted with these guys for over 20 years and have a pretty good idea of how it flows. It will be heavy RB in round 1 with at least Mahomes taken. Kelce could slip in. Round2 will be a mix of every skill position, with at least one but probably two QBs. Same for round 3. If I’m drafting early I would absolutely go RB in round one then take best available at the turn, but based on your recommendation of taking the top spot at each position, that will likely be WR and TE since I anticipate at least 3 QBs gone by then. 

 

ratbast

Footballguy
I get it, but I’ve also drafted with these guys for over 20 years and have a pretty good idea of how it flows. It will be heavy RB in round 1 with at least Mahomes taken. Kelce could slip in. Round2 will be a mix of every skill position, with at least one but probably two QBs. Same for round 3. If I’m drafting early I would absolutely go RB in round one then take best available at the turn, but based on your recommendation of taking the top spot at each position, that will likely be WR and TE since I anticipate at least 3 QBs gone by then. 
Well if you know your tendencies then you are ahead of the game. I’d probably do bpa for first five or so rounds, just wouldn’t go to deep at any one position. Good luck! 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
One thing I will say, this puts some interesting value onto NO QB (Taysom and Winston). Most are worried about who will start or is Taysom steals RZ snaps but that won't impact you. Saints were 8th in team QB points last year. I agree with your point that this could be a nice value for you in a draft. 

 
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-jb-

Footballguy
One thing I will say, this puts some interesting value onto NO QB (Taysom and Winston). Most are worried about who will start or is Taysom steals RZ snaps but that won't impact you. Saints were 8th in team QB points last year. I agree with your point that this could be a nice value for you in a draft. 
Yep, for sure. I’m also always looking for home run hitters given the points bonus on long TDs. Tyreek is a beast in this league. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Yep, for sure. I’m also always looking for home run hitters given the points bonus on long TDs. Tyreek is a beast in this league. 
That is harder to get data on and probably difficult to predict. For WRs and TEs, I would just look at yards per catch and 20+, 40+ yard plays  to find guys who tend to make bigger plays down field. This is kind of interesting, three players led the NFL with 6 catches of 40+ yards: Nuk, DJ Moore and MVS. DJ Moore was also among the league leaders with catches over 20 yards. Only 4 players had more. He was 3rd in ypc. His value is a little suppressed right now since he only scored 4 TDs last year but given he his high yards per catch and high number of targets, that seems like some bad TD luck. If he gets a little better TD luck, he could score 8 next year and several of them could be pretty big plays. 

 

-jb-

Footballguy
That is harder to get data on and probably difficult to predict. For WRs and TEs, I would just look at yards per catch and 20+, 40+ yard plays  to find guys who tend to make bigger plays down field. This is kind of interesting, three players led the NFL with 6 catches of 40+ yards: Nuk, DJ Moore and MVS. DJ Moore was also among the league leaders with catches over 20 yards. Only 4 players had more. He was 3rd in ypc. His value is a little suppressed right now since he only scored 4 TDs last year but given he his high yards per catch and high number of targets, that seems like some bad TD luck. If he gets a little better TD luck, he could score 8 next year and several of them could be pretty big plays. 
DJ is definitely on my watch list. I think he will be big this year and you can get him as a WR3. 

 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
I am in a league similar to this.  RBs are gold and go early and often. The stud QB and TEs are extremely valuable.   Most of us wait on WR since there are many to choose from in the mid rounds.  

 

-jb-

Footballguy
I am in a league similar to this.  RBs are gold and go early and often. The stud QB and TEs are extremely valuable.   Most of us wait on WR since there are many to choose from in the mid rounds.  
Have you ever gone RBRBEBRB out of the gate?

 

Leroy Hoard

Footballguy
One thing I will say, this puts some interesting value onto NO QB (Taysom and Winston). Most are worried about who will start or is Taysom steals RZ snaps but that won't impact you. Saints were 8th in team QB points last year. I agree with your point that this could be a nice value for you in a draft. 
I think it depends on how tuned in your league mates are as far as the hidden value of team QB when there are a couple viable options that could see playing time. Some guys may not go beyond the perceived starter, so some value is there in those situations. Saints would be a good example with their main two guys going at #29 and #31.  Basically free if you are lucky.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I think it depends on how tuned in your league mates are as far as the hidden value of team QB when there are a couple viable options that could see playing time. Some guys may not go beyond the perceived starter, so some value is there in those situations. Saints would be a good example with their main two guys going at #29 and #31.  Basically free if you are lucky.
Yeah you are right there could be a few others in the league who are looking to make the same move. You definitely can't wait nearly as long as you would for those QBs individually in other league formats. 

 

-jb-

Footballguy
For this league in particular, everyone is a little more aggressive on QBs. Historically (in old timey times), the point differential due to the TD bonuses was yooge, to the tune of 200 points from QB1-12. That said, I ran the numbers over the past decade and that has waned some. About half of the last 10 seasons have shown the 200pt spread, but the other half is around 100 (similar to other positions). This could have been driven by more QB friendly NFL rules or more running QBs, not sure. I've always been the type to wait, but you can still count on a 1 round uptick for every QB compared to ADP. With so many good options this year, I'm imagining we fall more toward the tighter grouping. I also think that pushes down the perceived value of the Saints situation. This year, my assumption is that there will be a slight lull after Dak, who will likely go in early 4th. 

 

Benjo

Footballguy
I keep thinking about this league, which means it’s a fun setting - kudos!

What I would do is get some projections that are customizable to league settings, and run them once for the starter value baseline, then again for the ROSTER value baseline. Then I’d make note of players with the biggest increase in value and target them. I feel like there’s a squeeze play to be leaned into with this format, but don’t know what it is.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
Wanted to revisit this discussion, as it was great to get outside perspectives on this strange format. I'd like to apply 2022 context to see what nuggets we can find. Reposting from first post:


THE CHALLENGE: IDENTIFY DRAFT STRATEGIES THAT CAN PROVIDE AN ADVANTAGE TO THE ROSTER


Incredibly odd format in this league that's been around since populating newspaper box scores into an Excel spreadsheet (1996).

12 teams, 1/2ppr, 6ptPaTD

Fixed rosters. All teams must look exactly like this:

  • QB

  • QB

  • RB

  • RB

  • RB

  • WR

  • WR

  • WR

  • RB/WR

  • TE

  • TE

  • K

  • K

  • D

  • D
Start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1K/1D

All TDs (ru/rec/pa) can receive bonuses as follows:

  • 0-9yds = 6pts

  • 10-39yds = 9pts

  • 40yds+ = 12pts
Two other odd format elements:

  • Team QB - You get all points scored from the QB position of the team you start rather than a specific player

  • You can start a TE in a WR position, but not vice versa
Some notables:

  • Top QBs tend to get drafted at least one round earlier than typical. It would not be surprising to see Mahomes and possibly Allen go in R1. On average, the 7th ranked QB is drafted no later than round 6.

  • Given the incredibly short bench (you can only carry three RBs/WRs TOTAL on your bench) means a very active WW and little opportunity to draft flyers/lottery tickets.

  • Given the requirement to carry two QBs and TEs, streaming the positions becomes more problematic.

  • Given the ability to start a TE in a WR slot offers some additional flexibility and opportunity.


Update from last year: I had a great draft, with horrible luck, but fought like hades and still made the championship (took the L). Finally, after a 21 year drought, got the #1 pick. How it went:

1.01 CMC (out most of the year)
2.12 AJB (out a decent amount)
3.01 Waller (out most of the year)
4.12 Lamar (out a decent amount)
5.01 DJM
6.12 ETN (never played)
7.01 Javonte
8.12 Curtis Samuel (out most of the year)
9.01 Michael Gallup (out most of the year)
10.12 Jonnu
11.01 Pittman
12.12 Fitz/WFT (barely played)
13.01 K
14.12 D
15.01 K
16.12 D

As you can see, I essentially had two good picks - Pittman and Javonte. The rest was a total dumpster fire.

Some ideas that came out of this thread from last year:
  • Potentially draft two top TEs - I had the chance to do this, but chickened out. Would have sucked regardless given Waller and Kittle's lack of performance
  • Look to draft the Saints TQB - I would have done this, but some yahoo in the league walked in and immediately started talking about the idea of James/Taysom both scoring, and they were subsequently overdrafted. FTR, the Saints TQB finished QB8 in scoring, and went in round SIX!
  • Align PK and TD around either SOS or dome game scheduling - I didn't do this, but will give it a look this year.
  • Try to get one top tier player from each position - I definitely did this, but I failed epically (CMC/AJB/Waller/Lamar). Sound strategy, just stoopid injuries.

Some serious notstradamus pulls in this thread:

"My only complaint about taking Kittle and Waller is that sure Jefferson and Waller might be projected to similar points but Jefferson also just set the NFL rookie receiving record. His ceiling this year is WR1 overall. I realize the Vikings want to be slower and lean on the run, but there is a chance what we saw last year was the emergence of the next superstar WR. He could have 100/1600/14 this year." @Ilov80s - Actuals 108/1616/10

"I've written elsewhere that I think we've already seen Waller's career year and all kinds of things would have to go perfectly for him to repeat that again this year." @tangfoot - Actuals :poop:

Regarding TQB its spread between QB1 and QB12 - "With so many good options this year, I'm imagining we fall more toward a tighter grouping (100 pt spread). I also think that pushes down the perceived value of the Saints situation. This year, my assumption is that there will be a slight lull after Dak, who will likely go in early 4th." ME - Actuals - points spread 116, Dak drafted 4.02


Onward....
IDEAS for 2022:

  • Drafting the best available at each position again align really well with ADP. Lots of foundational opportunities that wouldn't hold you back outside of injury
  • Go hard in the paint for RB - You can easily go RBRBRBRB this year and still have good WRs. You could wind up with a combo of Mike Williams / Arob / Elijah as ADP stands now. This would have a decent effect on depleting the position for others quickly. Feels like a lot would need to fall right though
  • Similarly, go hard on WR - not quite zero RB, just start by depleting the good ones. Really easy to get 3 WR1s this year. My thought here is to potentially go WR/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/TE/QB. This depletes the WR pool, gives you some high risk/reward RBs, solid QB and TE
Any other thoughts? Thx for the engagement last year, and maaaaaaybe this year.
 

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