Franknbeans
Footballguy
if anything?
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I know we're all sharks here but what... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Franknbeans
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mad sweeney
Footballguy
Drafting WRs is a crapshoot. 2 years in a row I went with highly touted prospects and 2 years in a row I ended up with WW wrs in my lineup 90% of the time. Next year if there's a studly WR early, I'm going for him.
packersfan
Footballguy
I don't know if I learned anything "new" but some of the things that jumped out at me about this season were:1. RB depth was key. Again, this isn't a big surprise but if you didn't have one of the handful of RBs who provided consistent production (Alexander, LT, Edge, Barber and LJ when he became a starter) you could have had problems. Even LT faded at the end. All that meant you needed to have as many viable options to choose from each week as possible. If you could load up on RB depth and protect yourself from injuries or guys who busted out your team was going to be better because of it.2. Taking a WR early was not a good move. Sure it worked if you grabbed Holt, CJ, Harrison and Steve Smith (who may not have gone early in many drafts), but if you went after TO, Moss, Walker, Horn, DJax as well as guys like Burleson, Clayton, Roy Williams or Bennett you got burned badly. I am giving strong consideration next year to loading up on RBs and a top QB early and not even thinking about WRs until the 6th round or so -- unless a great value falls in my lap.3. I want a top QB. This is a continuation of a belief I have now had the past two years and it's paidf nicely. I'm not going to take one in the first three rounds, but I want to make sure I have one top QB on my roster that I feel confident in starting week-in and week-out. Last year I got Favre in the fourth round and this year it was Brady in the fifth. I do not want to get into a situation where I'm always playing matchups or hoping a guy will do well. I want to have a strong QB to put in my roster every week that I believe is going to produce top-level fantasy production. I got that from Favre last season and Brady this season (I've had Delhomme as my QB2 each season) and have been very pleased with that strategy.
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
Back in the day before the oversaturation of internet cheatsheets and "who to start" emails, I had my own method of determining who to start. Used to win all the time. When fantasy football on the 'net got big, I starting believing the hype of the "who to start" crap, got skittish about certain starters because they weren't ranked high in cheatsheets, and went against my methods. Didn't do too well.I cancelled my subscriptions to fantasy sites (this one included) and went back to my old-school, tried and true methods. Won the league.While the Internet is a good resource, it can lead you to too much second-guessing and out-thinking yourself.
Cajun Heat
Footballguy
I'm in a ten team, 2 QB league. I've learned the following after 2005:1. Even in a 2 QB league, drafting a QB in the first round may not be worthwhile. I picked Peyton at 1.04, and his slow start was devastating. I wasn't expecting another 49 TDs, of course, but 30+ TDs and 4000+ yds (balanced over the year) might have made the first rounder worthwhile. 2. I have no idea what to do about the WR position. This year I waited til the 5th to grab my first WR (after going QB/RB/RB/QB), as I have done with success in the past. So I grabbed Andre Johnson and Michael Clayton in the next two rounds 
. Not surprisingly, I finished 4-9, with a "core" of P Manning, B Favre, C Portis, and R Johnson. There are very few "sure things" at this position any more, and even those who are may not be worth acquiring at the expense of the RBs you would have to pass on. So, whoever gets lucky with the later WRs has a HUGE advantage.
. Not surprisingly, I finished 4-9, with a "core" of P Manning, B Favre, C Portis, and R Johnson. There are very few "sure things" at this position any more, and even those who are may not be worth acquiring at the expense of the RBs you would have to pass on. So, whoever gets lucky with the later WRs has a HUGE advantage.
Reaper
Footballguy
How about this: ALWAYS Scour the waiver wire and pick up RB's wether you need them or not..I was in 5 leagues, made the playoffs in every one yet didn't win a Championship with some pretty good teams..
I admit I rested a bit and took "a break" since my lineups were pretty much "Set" - Then LT gets hurt and a few guys get rested and the "No-Names" come out of the woodwork - Meanwhile the Owners who are desperate and reaching for the best weekly pickups look like geniuses starting a Sam Gado while the guy who drafted well and did everything well all year can easily get beat - Part of the luck factor in the playoffs BUT, you have to watch the waiver wire and make pickups wether you need them or not just to keep them away from your opponent.
Wouldn't have totally saved me since 1 league had short rosters and another closed waivers early but, it's a good rule to follow regardless.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Like I said in the perfect draft thread...this thinking wasn't really correct for 2005:
Flying V
Footballguy
Gotcha. It won't work unless everyone in your league buys into it, but IIRC, the stud RB theory was born out of the same circumstances that involve WRs right now; the most productive ones are scarce compared to other skill positions.As far as predictability is concerned, I thought that was why you loaded up on them. You were never sure how many would survive the season.
You're right. I'd better reread the original article.
packersfan
Footballguy
Absolutely. My league had tight roster limits (we're working on changing that for next season) so there was only so much I could do to stockpile RB depth but I definitely agree that you load up at RB not only in your draft but during the season as well. If you're in a flex league who knows who could help you as a RB3 when you need him to? Hell, Mike Alstott was a pretty good RB3 some weeks this year; in PPR leagues a guy like Aaron Stecker had some moments. To me, that's how you survive RBs who bust out on you; you find production whereever and whenever you can.
packersfan
Footballguy
Another good point and one I've agreed with for years. I've always enjoyed seeing people trip over themselves for guys like Ashley Lelie and ignore someone like Rod Smith. Ends up making him a very nice value pick. Eddie Kennison is another WR like that.
perry147
Footballguy
I learned nothing "new" either 1. But this season injuries played a larger role than any other one I can remember especially at QB. I had more players on IR this year then ever before, I am thinking I might spend a higher then usual draft pick on my backup QB next year since when McNabb and Leftwich went down my championship hopes did also; I still won third place.2. Do not listen to hype. KJ, JJ, and Arrington are three players I was "talked into" liking against my better judgment last year. My rankings at the end of last year were better then the ones I drafted with in August because I listened to the hype.3. Great WRs do not make a bad QB good or a mediocre RB great because "they can't stack the line against the run". See Lions - Detroit for example one.See Cardinals - Arizona for example two.
monessen
Footballguy
Kit Fisto is 100% correct. Excellent lesson!I also learned not to trust certain theories that are rarely challenged but ought to be. For example. it's often advocated that QBs and WRs on teams with weak defenses are good starters because those teams have to throw a lot since they're often playing from behind. If that were true, David Carr, Andre Johnson, and Aaron Brooks should be fantasy giants like Boldin and Fitzgerald. Carolina and Indy have excellent defenses, yet the usual suspects----Manning, Wayne, Harrison, Steve Smith, etc.----were near the top at their positions, fantasy-wise. So, really, what real difference does a team's defense make with regard to the fantasy success of their QBs and WRs? The exception may be the Bears, whose QB was assigned to "manage" the game, which killed Muhammed's value.
Aussie Cowboy
Footballguy
Don't totally dismiss WR's that are on different teams. I passed over Burress and S Moss in a couple of leagues when I should have drafted them.
dgreen
Footballguy
The thinking is just fine, the results may have varied. Stud RB Theory is based on the predictability of RBs. If WRs become more predictable than they've been, then the thinking still applies, but it's result may differ.Maybe Stud RB Theory should just be renamed Predictable Stud Theory. I think it was named Stud RB Theory because once things like scarcity and VBD ideas were added, RBs were the result.
mad sweeney
Footballguy
Never change your team on Sunday. A lesson I learned last year and somehow broke week 1 of the playoffs. Last year it cost me a shot at the championship (which I would've won) and this year it cost me a trip to the 3/4th place game. Someone else said it bfore, there's too much info out there now. Way too easy to overthink things.
Draft the player you want regardless of the timing of his bye week. I ran into a situation this year where a great majority of my starters were on a bye at the same time. I refused to drop any of my starters just to pick up ww fodder to play for 1 week knowing that I'd probably never get my guys back. I asked if this was a good strategy on "that other board" and got blasted by most saying I was throwing away my season. I did lose that game like I thought I would, but I was at full strength the rest of the season. Oh, I guess the other thing I learned was not to use "that other board" anymore.
zamboni
Footballguy
Not that I didn't know before, but I learned the hard way not to "chase the points" and stick with your proven players (despite the inconsistency)At TE, I had Cooley and Witten and during the last half of the year, I kept playing the wrong one, starting the one that just came off a big game. Left a ton of points on the bench.
rumblinbumblinstumbler
Footballguy
I think I'm learning that luck plays a much bigger part in fantasy than I'd like to admit. I was picking 8th in a re-draft and hoping to get Deuce. Minutes before the draft an owner shows and offers me a trade of picks to move up to 4th. I take it. Another owner in the 2nd round offers to swap picks with me to move down and I take that too.If I had stayed where I was at my first 3 picks would probably have been Deuce, Jamal and Andre Johnson and instead I got Edge, Ahman and CJ.Now granted I drafted well later as well getting Caddy and Dunn who proved to be more than adequate fill ins, however, I was extremely lucky with how the trade worked out when I had no intentions of trading when I got there.
FFFIEND
Footballguy
I drafted Javon Walker with my 3rd round pick. Let's just say that didn't work out.(add)
I learned that RBs are still very critical to success, and QBs can be picked up later in the draft. In smaller leagues that start 2 WR, the WR position can be filled on the waiver.
No matter what! I repeat, what! You do not draft a kicker OR a D early. EVER!
Gates is awesome baby!
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Yes, most probably already know this but it was my 1st year in a 2 start league.
Mathematics
Footballguy
Yeah, it seems that all year long every fantasy site recommended starting Andre Johnson over guys like Kennison or Rod Smith. I had to resist the urge every week as Kennison was ranked around 20's -30's on projections every week. Yet, he sure helped me a lot more than AJ, Roy Williams or Burress did. Go with your gut and who is producing over who might produce or whatever the sites tell you.Only you know your team, your system, and your leaguemates.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
This is something I re-learn every season. It is the one position where, if injury occurs, you're going to be out of the running sooner than later. It is absolutely essential to not fall in love with your early round picks and still draft legitimate backup running backs, just in case. Case in point, I "stole" Julius Jones in the 1st round of a 10 team, 4 player keeper league. Of course, everyone at draft time claimed how well I had done to snag him but as it turned out, I needed depth in the later rounds by the names of LJ and Willie Parker. As for something new, draft day is where the season is won or lost. I know teams have been successful by picking up "hot" waiver wire prospects but by and large, that is the expecption to the rule. Give me a well drafted team any day.
AIKENS BACON
Footballguy
16 TEAM LEAGUE $275.00 ENTRY FEE:All Sharks this year in our league finished out of the money! Yearly Bottom Feeders were in the top 5 this year!WR are Studs!RB's are TOO TOO many by commitee. Only LT, LJ (late season), SA are true real STUDS! If you dont have them, go after WR's!Things have change in Fantasy Football!
packersfan
Footballguy
I think that was more true this year than most others recently - especially with regard to the RB position. In most leagues there wasn't a "hot" RB who emerged during the season that carried teams for most of the season. The closest was probably Gado, but his run was cut short by injury. Greg Jones may have been next but he wasn't really a full-time starting option. Otherwise, chances are the RBs you needed were likely drafted and already on someone else's roster.
Mr. Sparkle
Footballguy
I know that injuries will happen....unfortunately its always my players.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I have 2:1. Stud RB theory hurt me last year and killed me this year. I usually start drafts RB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR or RB, RB, WR, RB, WR, WR. I end up with the best RB Corps in the league with one good WR and a bunch of second rate WR. I roll along early in the year but take a dive late. After about week 8, serviceable RBs come up on the waiver wire, while no WR help ever comes available. The root of the problem is that WR are unpredictable and all the serviceable ones get drafted. Keys posted that WRs are no less predictable than RB, but I have a problem with his analysis. For the most part, the reason top RB bust is because of injury, in which case it is easy to cut bait and switch. For WR, they can have multiple issues that make it hard to cut them loose. His analysis doesn’t seem to take into account the frequency at which middle round WR make the top 12, vs. middle round RB.I am trying to figure out how to deal with this problem, I could argue 3 strategies:1A. Don’t adjust anything. Some years you are going to pick the right middle round WR’s and you will walk away an easy winner. Some years you will pick wrong, you will be competitive, but wont win.1B. Stud WR. If you can still get at least one decent RB, get two high WR, knowing that serviceable RBs will come available. With this approach, you need to minimize the number of WR on your roster and grab any potential RB just in case he makes it. The problem with this (as Keys pointed out) the top drafted WR aren’t sure things and if one of your two WR bust you are totally hosed. There will be no making it up, your season is over.1C. Take 2 RBs in first two rounds then take 4-5 WRs in a row. Basically we know that a number of second rate WR are going to be in the top 12, maximize your odds of getting a couple by loading up on them. Worry about backup RBs on the waiver wire later.2. I put too much time into VBD, projections and pre-draft preparation. I have spent hours adjusting projections, 100 yards here, a TD there. The fact is even for “sharks” the first couple rounds we bat .500. And after that it is a crapshoot. If one of our high round picks bust, we blame it on injury and say injuries can’t be predicted, and yes we get a few more sleepers right than the average Joe, but I am believing more and more that adjustments after the draft matter more than the draft itself. In fact, I would wager this: You could put me in an isolation chamber from today until five minutes before the draft next year. Let me out with enough time to print out an FBG’s cheatsheet. I will make the playoffs, and have a good shot at the championship. And the key to my success will be the waiver wire, trades and WDIS. Every year there is a poll that asks what is more important draft vs. in season moves. I always choose 50/50. I am leaning more to 75% in season.Thanks for bearing with my rambling.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
In a 6 pt/TD league, get a top QB that will give you consistency. I draft at 1.8 and 2.5 next year and will have either Palmer or Manning coming out of those two picks. You simply cannot win without consistency at the QB spot.I had a team this year that had LJ and Tiki as my starting RBs and Chambers, D-Jax/Jurevicius and Crumpler as my WR/TE and I still finished out of the money. Why? Because Mark F'n Brunell got me a delicious -1 at QB and my backup, Fitzpatrick, would have only gotten me 6. With all the talent I had (I also drafted Elam and the Bears defense) I still couldn't win any money because Bulger and Griese both went down the same day. I was wary of Bulger because of his injuries, but couldn't pas him up in the mid 4th round. I was 7-1 in the 8 games he played in and 2-4 in the 6 games he didn't, including my first round playoff game.Ina 6 pt/passing TD league, you HAVE to have a QB than you can count on to keep you in the game. My RBs, WRs, TE, K, and DEF all outscored my opponent in my playoff loss. Every category. However, Brunell's -1 to Bledsoe's 300+ yard, 3 TD performance cost me the game. This isn't the first time this has happened to me either. I will not go into the season with a subpar or injury prone QB as my starter again, even if it means waiting until round 3 to draft a second RB (could have had Warrick Dunn, Cadillac, etc.. there this year) and waiting until round 4 to draft a top WR (where Ward, Steve Smith, etc.. would have been available)
Shermanator
Footballguy
I think we can all agree that the qb pool was very shallow this year. And looks to be just as shallow next year. Putting a premium on top tier qb's.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I think just the opposite. I rotated the likes of Delhomme and Brooks most of the year and was competitive every week (won my SuperBowl). Unless I get incredible value, I won't draft a QB before rounds 5-7 ever again. My reason is that although you'll get the stud QB's throwing 3-4 TD's in October, you usually don't see those types of games in December when the weather turns cold. I agree with others that overlooking older WR's is a big mistake..
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
I won 3 Super Bowls this year (out of 5 leagues) employing the Stud-WR model. 2 of these were auction leagues in which 3 or 4 WRs can be started. I do not neglect RBs. I avoid paying top $$ for guys like Owens, Moss, Harrison, Holt, but rather fill in with a stable very strong 4 or 5 WRs. I will go for 1 strong RB and then collect RB depth later in the draft.I have won with this approach in other years as well. It does not work every year but I believe it to be much more reliable than the Stud RB approach. The reason - Simple Market Economics - Many, many more FF-ers subscribe to the Stud RB approach to life, invariably leaving more fertile ground to be sowed by Stud WR practitioners.In my worst league this year, I was very unsuccesful in deploying the Stud QB model. This league employs an option (not a requirement) to start 2 QBs via the Super Flex position. I thought that I was nicely positioned with Culpepper and Bulger, but alas there are many forces outside of one's control in Fantasy Sports.
shakeybarn
Footballguy
Spending 45% of your cap or 2 of your top 5 picks on the RB1 and RB2 in an running machine of a team (the Chiefs) is well worth it.1st round - Priest4th/5th round - Larry$40 Priest$6 LarryI will say with the ProBowlers that Seattle put up... Shaun/Maurice is well worth (with Maurice being much cheaper than Larry).
Cheesedawg
Footballguy
1) Never get off to such a fast start that you pick last on the waiver wire each week. :( 2) Never tell any league-mates about FBG. :(
Mr. Pink
Footballguy
Any RB that is given a starting nod, regardless of how short a time, regardless of how unproven, has high value. See Willie Parker.This is a back that was expected to start just a couple of games at the outset before the two incumbents returned. I managed to snag him in the last round of my redraft (12 team/16 rounds). In many leagues he went undrafted. 
Granted, situations like his can be few and far between, but for me, I got Fitz straight up for him in Week 4, others were rewarded just for holding on to him. You just never know.
Granted, situations like his can be few and far between, but for me, I got Fitz straight up for him in Week 4, others were rewarded just for holding on to him. You just never know.
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Wingnut
Footballguy
I agree with this one. Not the usual STUD WR theory where you take a WR first, but a delayed Stud WR theory.This is the route I went this year for the 1st time. After grabbing Shaun at pick 3, I figured I could get a servicable RB2 combo after picking a couple of top 7 WRs in rounds 2 and 3 (when everyone else was grabbing their 2nd RB). In rounds 4 and 5, I snagged Dunn and F Taylor while everyone else was taking WRs 10-20. Not a bad RB2 combo to play matchups with, especially since I had Shaun who pretty much counts as 2 RBs.
In response to the bolded part of the quote, I disagree, only because it happened to me but it didnt matter. I lost J Walker in week 1, but because I was able to swing a trade and work the WW, I was able to win the title and point championship.
But the point is, this strategy worked for me even though I lost my WR2 in week one, and I will try it again next year if I have a top 4 or so pick.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
As well as Corey Dillion
Mr. Anonymous
Footballguy
Can't argue with a given person's league, but seems to me you just got unlucky. Brunell seems to be a very serviceable QB to go into the playoffs with, with the rest of that roster. What if he had had the game from the week before? You would have been golden. It just happened to be your weak link this year; you address that, and something else is likely to be weak. I don't see how you can invest more than Bulger, Brunell and Griese in the position. You pick Palmer, and what if he gets hurt? What if the 3rd and 4th round RBs you pick are the dogs they should be, instead of the one's you named?I promise you that having a stud QB is not a certain recipe for fantasy success. Unless it's Peyton in 2004. Otherwise it's a nice to have.
If it's any solace, I would say in one way you're lucky, of the stud players you named, not one of them had playoff bye-lock issues. That's what killed me this year. However, drafting before the season, and having a week 10 trade deadline, I don't know how one can avoid having SA, MA, Rod Smith, TJ Housh on your roster (which is what I had) - one game goes a different way and MA and Rod are playing for their lives; same for SA and Housh.
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Echo some of what was said before...1. Depth is key. Especially at QB. You don't ever want to get stuck starting Boller and his ilk.2. The non-sexy's will take you to the promised land. I rode guys like Dunn, Rod Smith, and Amani Toomer to my championship. 3. Gates is the most valuable FFL player there is beyond the big 3. And he can be had in round 2 or 3.
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