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I like L. Jordan in 2005 (1 Viewer)

Unlucky

Phenom
Here are Jordan's career stats, courtesy of http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/JordLa00.htm

| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2001 nyj | 16 | 39 292 7.5 1 | 7 44 6.3 1 || 2002 nyj | 14 | 84 316 3.8 3 | 17 160 9.4 0 || 2003 nyj | 16 | 46 190 4.1 4 | 11 101 9.2 0 || 2004 nyj | 16 | 93 479 5.2 2 | 15 112 7.5 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 62 | 262 1277 4.9 10 | 50 417 8.3 1 |I like the 4.9 career YPC. However, the carries have been limited, which can skew this number. At least it's a high YPC. Looking at some game stats, I like that I don't see the 11 for 20 type games. His 10+ carry games from 2004:

14/115

18/73

12/43

11/60

15/84

He did have 3 bad games in 2002 and 2003 combined.

We don't have much more to go on than his limited time. The Jets have been fairly good rushing teams, and had some weapons in the supporting cast.

Now, let's look at Oakland. Obviously, the passing game will be strong. I contend that Moss alone guarantees that Jordan won't see 8 men in the box. Minnesota has produced very good YPC numbers for all of their RBs while Moss has been there. Oakland's like looks to be at least decent. I can't say they are great, but they shouldn't be horrible. Collins certainly isn't a threat to steal carries from Jordan, and the rest of the RBs there don't scare me. Jordan will have every opportunity to be featured. I do have a few worries - OAK may be in a lot of shootouts and thus the run/pass ratio may favor the pass. But that's OK, as long as Jordan doesn't share the load. The other concern is Moss TDs from the goalline. Collins won't vulture any, and I'm not sure if other RBs will, but Moss will get a few looks from inside the 5. However, OAK should score enough TDs.

Here are my "off the top of my head" projections for Jordan right now (assuming 16 games):

310 carries, 1364 yards, 10 TDs, 30 receptions, 240 yards, and 1 TD. That's good for 14.15 PPG, which should put Jordan in the 12 to 18 range.

That should make him worth a very late 2nd round pick or 3rd rounder in most leagues. I'm not sure where he'll be drafted, so I can't say for sure if he's going to be a good value pick or not.

 

Jimmy James

Footballguy
I think TDs are way too random to count on, so I think a lot more about yardage than TDs when deciding where somebody should go. At 1350+/200+, I would have to think he'd be 6-10 material unless you're just projecting a bumper crop of very productive backs next year.

 

Unlucky

Phenom
I think TDs are way too random to count on, so I think a lot more about yardage than TDs when deciding where somebody should go. At 1350+/200+, I would have to think he'd be 6-10 material unless you're just projecting a bumper crop of very productive backs next year.
You may be right on that - 1600 total yards would have been #8 last year, but slightly lower in 2003. However, I am basing this on playing a full season, and I project all players to play a full season, since injuries can't be predicted. So, I think he'll fall a little lower. There is some pretty nice upside for Jordan, since we've never seen him be a full-time starter. I consider my projection to be middle of the road, where I feel most confident.
 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
I think that's a reasonable projection Mike, but as you know it's one that about 20 different RBs can reach.I'll be watching this situation very closely...I am surprised no one else is more worried about this team blowing up. All the pieces seem in place to me:1) Al Davis/Oakland: There's always the potential for fireworks.2) Didn't the team basically blow up in 2003? And give up last year?3) Moss/Porter/Jordan. All will complain publicly if they don't get enough touches, which will almost assuredly will happen.4) Norv Turner. This is the big problem for me. I just can't associate a Norv Turner team with a winning team. He's a career 54-70 head coach (.435 winning percentage). If you think when LaMont is unhappy about touches, and Moss is creating controveries, and Porter wants to be featured more in the red zone....Norv Turner is going to be the voice of reason?They're in an incredibly tough division, with all three teams having serious playoff apsirations. The Chargers won the division with mostly the same roster last year; The Cheifs won the division with a similar roster in 2003; and the Broncos made the playoffs both years.To put it mildly, I'd put the risk of Turner being the first coach canned way higher than I would be comfortable with. When you factor in the risk associated with just about every fantasy player, the only way I'd take Jordan with my second pick is if I had Tomlinson with my first. You need to mitigate the risk somehow.

 

wannabee

Footballguy
One additional thing to think about: Will Crockett vulture 5+ goal line TDs? This, in addition to Moss and Porter vulturing red-zone TDs might make Jordan a high yds, low TDs guy.

 

my man otis

Footballguy
One additional thing to think about: Will Crockett vulture 5+ goal line TDs? This, in addition to Moss and Porter vulturing red-zone TDs might make Jordan a high yds, low TDs guy.
I agree. We'll have to see if Moss will be used as a "goal line WR" like he was in Min.On the original post, the fact that Oak will be in some shootouts will cap his #s a bit.

I think a range of 1300/6 to 1600/10 is about right (total yards).

 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
I have been pimping Jordan quite a bit since last year and I like the guy however like many of you pointed out we just don't know what his TD numbers will be like. If he gets all the goal line work he will easily exceed 10 td's however if he does have to give up some to Crocket etc then he will be the 6-8 range. The guy is big and I am assuming N.Turner will use him as a goal line back since they have given him a fat contract and Turner will want to show that it was a good signing as Turner had a large play in bringing him to Oakland. Moss will be utilized in the red zone as well, but hopefully it will Turner will pound the ball with Jordan in their.

 

chewybip

Footballguy
i can see jordan with 18+ tds this year. this is norv we are talking about here. this is one of the best situations for a rb IN THE HISTORY of the nfl if all (alot) of pieces fall into place...and they have.

 

GOD HATES US ALL

Footballguy
Will Crockett vulture 5+ goal line TDs? .
This is the main question I have with Jordan's value as well. Crockett is arguably the best goal line runner in the NFL. Why should that change now that Jordan is the starting tailback. I can see Jordan being used more as a Michael Bennett role type back in Minnesota. With Crockett getting the goal line looks.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
i can see jordan with 18+ tds this year.
:shock: I think he'll do well, too, but 18? That's more than Tomlinson has ever had.

As for Crockett, I think people are thinking back too much to the old Gruden/Callahan days. That's not Turner's style, and he has a big physical runner already with Jordan.

 
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Banger

Footballguy
i can see jordan with 18+ tds this year. this is norv we are talking about here. this is one of the best situations for a rb IN THE HISTORY of the nfl if all (alot) of pieces fall into place...and they have.
18 TD's is crazy talk. Did they all the sudden get one of the best lines in the league? By the way only 2 rb's scored 18 TD or more last year, LT and Alexander.
 

Banger

Footballguy
  Will Crockett vulture 5+ goal line TDs?  .
This is the main question I have with Jordan's value as well. Crockett is arguably the best goal line runner in the NFL. Why should that change now that Jordan is the starting tailback. I can see Jordan being used more as a Michael Bennett role type back in Minnesota. With Crockett getting the goal line looks.
or another question is whether Moss will steal goal line touches as well. 8 of Moss's TD's last year were inside the 4 yard line so he has been a huge goal line option in the past.
 

Reaper

Footballguy
I'm all over Jordan as well - As a Jets fan who's watched every NFL carry and someone who owns him in both my keeper leagues..... :boxing: Some of those stats above are with a bad hand - Unfortunately, the best chance he had to take over when Martin was hurt, Jordan also was dinged....Jordan is a bull and there's no reason to bring in a short yardage back - If anything a smaller speed demon would be a change of pace...I can't wait to watch this offense..... And like others my biggest worry is if the team is in a lot of shootouts..... And hopefully he gets some passes thrown his way....As a Jordan fan, I'm real happy for him....

 

zamboni

Footballguy
  Will Crockett vulture 5+ goal line TDs?  .
This is the main question I have with Jordan's value as well. Crockett is arguably the best goal line runner in the NFL. Why should that change now that Jordan is the starting tailback. I can see Jordan being used more as a Michael Bennett role type back in Minnesota. With Crockett getting the goal line looks.
or another question is whether Moss will steal goal line touches as well. 8 of Moss's TD's last year were inside the 4 yard line so he has been a huge goal line option in the past.
Maybe, but I guess it depends on how much he trusts Collins throwing the ball in that part of the field. He throws a nice deep ball, but the underneath stuff is sometimes suspect. It seems Norv's style to pound the ball, but to be fair, he's never had a weapon like Moss before.

 

MU Seminole

Footballguy
Oakland was DEAD LAST in the NFL in rushing last year. #32 of 32. 80.9 ypg and 10 total rushing TDs. That team has a lot of egos and a coach with a career losing record. Also a bad defense that won't consistently get the offense onto the field and give him 4th quarter carries. Moss and Jordan should definitely help, but that's the baseline from which they are starting, and it doesn't get much worse.

 
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dgreen

Footballguy
i can see jordan with 18+ tds this year. this is norv we are talking about here. this is one of the best situations for a rb IN THE HISTORY of the nfl if all (alot) of pieces fall into place...and they have.
18 TD's is crazy talk. Did they all the sudden get one of the best lines in the league? By the way only 2 rb's scored 18 TD or more last year, LT and Alexander.
I agree it would be crazy to predict Jordan having 18 TDs, but he's just saying that he could see it happening. Under Norv, either as an OC or a HC, there have been five backs get 17+ TDs (rushing and receiving).Terry Allen 21

Emmitt Smith 19

Stephen Davis 17

Ricky Williams 17

Ladainian Tomlinson 17

Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, Ricky Williams, and Ladainian Tomlinson, so far, all had their best single season VBD under Norv. Emmitt had his second highest VBD season under Norv.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I'm not going to provide a prediction for Jordan (it's too early), but IMO we really have no idea how Jordan will perform as a featured back. His sample size is so distorted (very few carries over a long time frame). I will provide the information, and you all can come to your own conclusions.

Lamont Jordan has a 4.9 ypc in 262 carries in 4 years as a backup. Compare that to:

Guys that Looked Medicocre:

Rudi Johnson (3.9 ypc in 17 carries in 1 year as a backup)

Jamal Anderson (3.9 ypc in 41 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Tiki Barber (3.7 ypc in 250 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Reuben Droughns (2.4 ypc in 40 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Chris Warren (1.8 ypc in 30 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Guys that Looked Like Studs:

Lamar Smith (5.6 ypc in 38 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Napoleon Kaufman (5.3 ypc in 258 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Trung Canidate (5.1 ypc in 98 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Troy Hambrick (4.7 ypc in 198 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Amos Zereoue (4.6 ypc in 109 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Travis Minor (4.5 ypc in 144 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Guys that Looked Like Studs and Turned into One:

Ahman Green (5.4 ypc in 61 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Deuce McAllister (5.7 ypc in 16 carries in 1 year as a backup)

Guys that Looked Great but Never Really Got a Shot:

Michael Wily (6.2 ypc in 81 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Maurice Morris (5.2 ypc in 100 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Najeh Davenport (5.1 ypc in 187 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Brian Mitchell (5.1 ypc in 388 carries in 14 years)

De'Mond Parker (5.0 ypc in 54 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Michael Basnight (5.0 ypc in 62 carries in 1 year as a backup)

Jerry Ellison (5.0 ypc in 74 carries in 4 years as a backup)

Kenny Watson (4.9 ypc in 142 carries in 2 years as a backup)

Richard Huntley (4.7 ypc in 365 carries in 6 years as a backup)

Dominic Rhodes (4.7 ypc in 323 carries in 4 seasons as a backup)

Terry Jackson (4.7 ypc in 68 carries in 4 seasons as a backup)

Sedrick Shaw (4.7 ypc in 55 carries in 4 years as a backup)

Kimble Anders (4.6 ypc in 495 carries in 10 years as a backup)

Derrick Blaylock (4.6 ypc in 156 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Aveion Cason (4.6 ypc in 77 carries in 3 years as a backup)

Verron Hayes (4.5 ypc in 85 carries in 3 years as a backup)

In 66 career games (including the post-season), Jordan has ONE game with 20 carries. And he's had only 2 others with 15 carries.

 

RavenFan

Footballguy
I agree that it's far to early to predict anything for Jordan. The three things I think he has going for him are:1. Virtually every one on this board who identifies himself as a Jet fan and has seen most of Jordan's games thinks he's good.2. His head coach actually fought with the RB coach to get Lamont put in a critical game.3. His offer from the Jets was pretty high for a backup RB. The Jets seemed to want to keep him pretty badly, and they know him best.

 

Reaper

Footballguy
I think the people who really like Jordan are looking mostly at what they saw him do with their own two eyes and not the numbers as much....The Jets have gone from Vinny to Chad to Injured Chad to Vinny to Quincy to Injured Chad All with an Offensive coordinator who was mind boggling at times.....Through most of this scenario the Jets never really had an electrifying deep passing game or even one to speak of much at all.... And there were times with Vinny or Injured Chad where the passing game was just a mess.... There was little reason for teams to back up on the Jets and not concentrate mostly on stopping the run.... It also seems like a number of Jordan's run were called back on penalties - Not sure why when he came in but, it did happen - The biggest one was against the Steelers last year where Martin was running into a brick wall and Jordan took a handoff and blew pas the D around the left edge.... A Phantom call on Becht brings that back but, no matter we saw what the man just did. Then genius Hackett puts Jordan on the bench for the rest of the game.. :confused: I don't think I've ever seen a talent so mis-used in the NFL.... And as a Jordan fan, I'm excited for him and I'm looking forward to watching this offense...

 

Reaper

Footballguy
I agree that it's far to early to predict anything for Jordan.  The three things I think he has going for him are:

1.  Virtually every one on this board who identifies himself as a Jet fan and has seen most of Jordan's games thinks he's good.

2.  His head coach actually fought with the RB coach to get Lamont put in a critical game.

3.  His offer from the Jets was pretty high for a backup RB.  The Jets seemed to want to keep him pretty badly, and they know him best.
GREAT points - As a Jets fan, I'll always root for and follow his career....I don't think the numbers show a thing at all about what this guy can do - You have to look at the tape to see the heart and desire and how he breaks through tackles.... Another thing is, he got a little down being the backup - I think he grew up a bit and I think this offseason, knowing the opportunity he has, he's going to train and work like an absolute MadMan and be in the absolute best shape of his life..... Apparently he wasn't in optimla shape last year...

The guy is ready to Bust out.

And I'm looking for similar Great reports on Blaylock :D

 
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David Yudkin

Footballguy
As others have mentioned, the Raiders ranked dead last in rushing yards last year. As a comparison ONLY, here are the fantasy rankings of the #1 RBs on each team the year AFTER the team finished last in rushing.2004: Raiders (1,295) : Lamnot Jordan (?)2003: Lions (1,338): Kevin Jones (21)2002: Bears (1,344): Anthony Thomas (24)2001: Browns (1,351): William Green (27)2000: Chargers (1,062): LaDainian Tomlinson (7)1999: Browns (1,150): Travis Prentice (28)1998: Saints (1,325): Ricky Williams (27)1997: Cardinals (1,255): Adrian Murrell (14)1996: Saints (1,308): Ray Zellars (33)1995: Jets (1,279):Adrian Murrell (12)1994: Falcons (1,249): Craig Heyward (14)1993: Colts (1,288): Marshall Faulk (4)1992: Colts (1,102): Roosevelt Potts (38)1991: Colts (1,169): Anthony Johnson (19)1990: Browns (1,220): Kevin Mack (10) AND Leroy Hoard (14)1989: Falcons (1,155): Mike Rozier (33)1988: Dolphins (1,205): Samie Smith (27)1987: Falcons (1,297): John Settle (7)1986: Patriots (1,378): Tony Collins (22)1985: Chiefs (1,486): Jeff Smith (43)1984: Eagles (1,338): Earnest Jackson (21)1983: Chiefs (1,254): Herman Heard (30)1982: 49ers (740): Roger Craig (16)1981: Vikings (1,512): Ted Brown (26)1980: Saints (1,362): George Rogers (4)1979: Bills (1,621): Joe Cribbs (3)So in the past 25 years, there were 6 times that there was a Top 10 RB the year after.This information has very little bearing on the Raiders situation (noe of these teams had also imported a HOF WR in the offseason), but I found it interesting none the less.

 

redman

Footballguy
As others have mentioned, the Raiders ranked dead last in rushing yards last year.  As a comparison ONLY, here are the fantasy rankings of  the #1 RBs on each team the year AFTER the team finished last in rushing.

2004: Raiders (1,295) : Lamnot Jordan (?)

2003: Lions (1,338): Kevin Jones (21)

2002: Bears (1,344): Anthony Thomas (24)

2001: Browns (1,351): William Green (27)

2000: Chargers (1,062): LaDainian Tomlinson (7)

1999: Browns (1,150): Travis Prentice (28)

1998: Saints (1,325): Ricky Williams (27)

1997: Cardinals (1,255): Adrian Murrell (14)

1996: Saints (1,308): Ray Zellars (33)

1995: Jets (1,279):Adrian Murrell (12)

1994: Falcons (1,249): Craig Heyward (14)

1993: Colts (1,288): Marshall Faulk (4)

1992: Colts (1,102): Roosevelt Potts (38)

1991: Colts (1,169): Anthony Johnson (19)

1990: Browns (1,220): Kevin Mack (10) AND Leroy Hoard (14)

1989: Falcons (1,155): Mike Rozier (33)

1988: Dolphins (1,205): Samie Smith (27)

1987: Falcons (1,297): John Settle (7)

1986: Patriots (1,378): Tony Collins (22)

1985: Chiefs (1,486): Jeff Smith (43)

1984: Eagles (1,338): Earnest Jackson (21)

1983: Chiefs (1,254): Herman Heard (30)

1982: 49ers (740): Roger Craig (16)

1981: Vikings (1,512): Ted Brown (26)

1980: Saints (1,362): George Rogers (4)

1979: Bills (1,621): Joe Cribbs (3)

So in the past 25 years, there were 6 times that there was a Top 10 RB the year after.

This information has very little bearing on the Raiders situation (noe of these teams had also imported a HOF WR in the offseason), but I found it interesting none the less.
How many of those teams had coaching changes the following season with corresponding new offenses to install and learn? Keep in mind that (whatever you think of him) Norv's back and he likes to run. It's been a rare year when a Norv Turner offense hasn't produced a RB with more than 1000 yards and at least 8-10 TD's. And that's included guys as small as Emmitt Smith and Terry Allen, and as large as Stephen Davis.

 
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Dirk Digler

Footballguy
no one feels like Fargas' name should be mentioned when discussing possible down side or vulturing?He has unquestioned talent, IF he could stay healthy don't you think he could be a threat to Jordan's upside?

 

dgreen

Footballguy
no one feels like Fargas' name should be mentioned when discussing possible down side or vulturing?

He has unquestioned talent, IF he could stay healthy don't you think he could be a threat to Jordan's upside?
I think Jordan's contract is a clear sign that they intend for him to be the main guy. Whether someone else displays skills that convince the coaching staff otherwise remains to be seen. If you are trying to get Jordan by way of trade right now, the asking price will likely be for a RB who is expected to be the man in a Norv Turner offense. If you are trying to trade away Jordan, you should probably ask for value in return for a RB who is expected to be the man in a Norv Turner offense.
 

redman

Footballguy
no one feels like Fargas' name should be mentioned when discussing possible down side or vulturing?

He has unquestioned talent, IF he could stay healthy don't you think he could be a threat to Jordan's upside?
Problem is, Norv's never run a RBBC, even when he's had good backups (e.g. Stephen Davis behind Terry Allen; Skip Hicks behind Davis). OTOH, we've never seen either Jordan or Fargas carry the load for an entire season, so both guys may be needed as an injury hedge for Norv, and therefore the dreaded "handcuff" for our purposes.
 

redman

Footballguy
How is Collins as a play action passer?
I've always thought he was pretty good at it.
Corollary: if he has time. If the line blocks for him like the Giants did in 2000, then Collins is an above average passer; if not, then he's pretty bad.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
no one feels like Fargas' name should be mentioned when discussing possible down side or vulturing?

He has unquestioned talent, IF he could stay healthy don't you think he could be a threat to Jordan's upside?
With this signing, I think we need to dispense once and for all with the Fargas sleeper talk. IMO his window of opportunity is long gone.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
How is Collins as a play action passer?
I've always thought he was pretty good at it.
Corollary: if he has time. If the line blocks for him like the Giants did in 2000, then Collins is an above average passer; if not, then he's pretty bad.
Well, Oakland has a good line, Turner is a play action coach, and Moss is an ideal play action receiver, which suggests a high number of productive carries for Jordan. I'd like to see them make a run at Pollard, though.
 

Gadzooks

Footballguy
As others have mentioned, the Raiders ranked dead last in rushing yards last year.  As a comparison ONLY, here are the fantasy rankings of  the #1 RBs on each team the year AFTER the team finished last in rushing.

2004: Raiders (1,295) : Lamnot Jordan (?)

2003: Lions (1,338): Kevin Jones (21)

2002: Bears (1,344): Anthony Thomas (24)

2001: Browns (1,351): William Green (27)

2000: Chargers (1,062): LaDainian Tomlinson (7)

1999: Browns (1,150): Travis Prentice (28)

1998: Saints (1,325): Ricky Williams (27)

1997: Cardinals (1,255): Adrian Murrell (14)

1996: Saints (1,308): Ray Zellars (33)

1995: Jets (1,279):Adrian Murrell (12)

1994: Falcons (1,249): Craig Heyward (14)

1993: Colts (1,288): Marshall Faulk (4)

1992: Colts (1,102): Roosevelt Potts (38)

1991: Colts (1,169): Anthony Johnson (19)

1990: Browns (1,220): Kevin Mack (10) AND Leroy Hoard (14)

1989: Falcons (1,155): Mike Rozier (33)

1988: Dolphins (1,205): Samie Smith (27)

1987: Falcons (1,297): John Settle (7)

1986: Patriots (1,378): Tony Collins (22)

1985: Chiefs (1,486): Jeff Smith (43)

1984: Eagles (1,338): Earnest Jackson (21)

1983: Chiefs (1,254): Herman Heard (30)

1982: 49ers (740): Roger Craig (16)

1981: Vikings (1,512): Ted Brown (26)

1980: Saints (1,362): George Rogers (4)

1979: Bills (1,621): Joe Cribbs (3)

So in the past 25 years, there were 6 times that there was a Top 10 RB the year after.

This information has very little bearing on the Raiders situation (noe of these teams had also imported a HOF WR in the offseason), but I found it interesting none the less.
How many of those teams had coaching changes the following season with corresponding new offenses to install and learn? Keep in mind that (whatever you think of him) Norv's back and he likes to run. It's been a rare year when a Norv Turner offense hasn't produced a RB with more than 1000 yards and at least 8-10 TD's. And that's included guys as small as Emmitt Smith and Terry Allen, and as large as Stephen Davis.
Like last year?
 

Jimmy James

Footballguy
Like last year?
Yes, like last year.Which one of those "studs" did you think was worthy of being a feature back? Please enlighten us. It's the very reason *why* Jordan is there now.Something nobody has mentioned here is that the Raiders took two linemen high in the draft last year. I imagine that we'll see both of them fit into the system better this year.
 

Gadzooks

Footballguy
Like last year?
Yes, like last year.Which one of those "studs" did you think was worthy of being a feature back? Please enlighten us. It's the very reason *why* Jordan is there now.

Something nobody has mentioned here is that the Raiders took two linemen high in the draft last year. I imagine that we'll see both of them fit into the system better this year.
My point is not that there was a stud rb on the team last year. My point was in reference to the post I was quoting which indicated that this running game guru (Turner) rarely has a season without a 1,000 yard rusher and that he can do it with players who are small or large. Emmit, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, Thomlinson, Ricky Williams are Pro-bowl quality players, their size doesn't matter. Last year, Turner did not have a "stud" in the backfield and not only did he not a have runner go for 1,000 yards, he had the worst running team in the league. Yes Turner likes to run the ball, but that doesn't guarantee success running it. Jordan has the potential to be a very good RB, but just because his coach has a run first mentality doesn't guarantee Jordan will be great. Jordan has been a backup for 4 years and has shown flashes of potential, but he still hasn't shown he can be the "guy" for an entire season. I'm not saying he won't have success, but I absolutely don't think its a sure thing. As Parcells once said "all potential means is that you haven't done anything yet". If Jordan runs for 1,500 yards then I will say good for him, sorry I doubted him and I'll give more credit to Turner, but if Jordan is a bust, then I think that will say something about the Turner, and that his past success running the ball had more to do with the players who were actually running it than him.
 

Jimmy James

Footballguy
Fair enough. I honestly don't think Norv is a partiularly good coach. To me, it's pretty clear that Chan Gailey was the superior OC if you compare what he did with a rookie Chambers, Jay Fiedler, and Lamar Smith to what Norv did with an experienced Chambers, Jay Fiedler, and Ricky Williams. I don't think Norv is going to make Jordan a better back than he is, but I really do think we're looking at another Stephen Davis (only hopefully without the injuries).

 
I am also in the boat that says it's just way to early to predict how Lamont Jordan will do in Oakland. I can tell you today that if he's the type of back that will be drafted late 2nd round, that will be too early for me. I just have too many questions about him to draft him that early.He definately has some upside, but so did/does Kevan Barlow. To be honost, the player out of the entire offensive team that I like the most is Jerry Porter. I like the way he came on at the end of last season and I like that Moss will draw a lot of the coverage. Porter will have a solid season this year, definately a Wr2 I will be targeting this upcoming year.

 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
You can put question marks on many of the RB's coming into a fantasy draft this year. But, I think L.Jordan is a second rounder for sure and if he slips into the 3rd round I think you are missing out on a great back. You can put Question marks on all of the RB's except for the for sures: S.Alexander and L.Tomlinson, these backs. The rest are all going to be a guessing game and in the case of Jordan he should be a second rounder.

 

Tick

Footballguy
no one feels like Fargas' name should be mentioned when discussing possible down side or vulturing?

He has unquestioned talent, IF he could stay healthy don't you think he could be a threat to Jordan's upside?
Problem is, Norv's never run a RBBC, even when he's had good backups (e.g. Stephen Davis behind Terry Allen; Skip Hicks behind Davis). OTOH, we've never seen either Jordan or Fargas carry the load for an entire season, so both guys may be needed as an injury hedge for Norv, and therefore the dreaded "handcuff" for our purposes.
Wait a minute. That may have been true before last season, but last season was a complete mess.| Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

| Zack Crockett | 16 | 48 232 4.8 2 | 16 87 5.4 0 |

| Justin Fargas | 12 | 35 126 3.6 1 | 11 68 6.2 0 |

| Chris Hetherington | 5 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 3 28 9.3 0 |

| J.R. Redmond | 16 | 21 119 5.7 0 | 32 233 7.3 0 |

| Tyrone Wheatley | 8 | 85 327 3.8 4 | 15 78 5.2 0 |

| Amos Zereoue | 15 | 112 425 3.8 3 | 39 284 7.3 0 |

And it's not like they took turns being the main man during different games...

Zereoue's stats:

| 2 buf | 9 24 | 25 | 0 |

| 3 tam | 6 41 | 9 | 0 |

| 4 hou | 14 117 | 17 | 2 |

| 5 ind | 10 41 | 53 | 0 |

| 6 den | 15 34 | 17 | 0 |

| 7 nor | 21 70 | 9 | 0 |

| 8 sdg | 6 -1 | 42 | 0 |

| 9 car | 7 7 | 4 | 1 |

| 11 sdg | 0 0 | 11 | 0 |

| 12 den | 1 4 | 5 | 0 |

| 13 kan | 4 15 | 18 | 0 |

| 14 atl | 10 50 | 7 | 0 |

| 15 ten | 1 4 | 11 | 0 |

| 16 kan | 4 14 | 38 | 0 |

| 17 jax | 4 5 | 18 | 0 |

 

dgreen

Footballguy
...Moss is an ideal play action receiver...
What does this mean?
If you bite on the Play Action - You're toast.All Day.
Right, but how is Moss an ideal play action receiver? Is that he runs so many lazy routes you can't really tell if it's a run or not? Personally, I'd think he's a horrible play action receiver because I'm telling my defenders to watch Moss no matter what else happens. Even if they do handoff, stay step for step with Moss. Don't leave his side. He's the man your defense focuses on and your going to possibly leave him to support the run?
 

Gadzooks

Footballguy
You can put question marks on many of the RB's coming into a fantasy draft this year. But, I think L.Jordan is a second rounder for sure and if he slips into the 3rd round I think you are missing out on a great back.

You can put Question marks on all of the RB's except for the for sures: S.Alexander and L.Tomlinson, these backs. The rest are all going to be a guessing game and in the case of Jordan he should be a second rounder.
Maybe I'm jilted because I fell for the Barlow hype last year, but I dont' see ranking Jordan in the top 15 or drafting him in the 2nd round. Assuming a 12 team draft, at minimum, you'd have to agree that in the first 2 rounds Manning, C-Pep, McNabb, Moss, Owens, Holt, Harrison (or C. Johnson) should be picked, leaving 17 rbs to be selected in the first 2 rounds. I would say the following are safer picks than Jordan (this is in no particular order):Dillon

C.Martin

McGahee

J. Lewis

Rudi

Edge

F. Taylor

DDavis

C. Brown

Holmes

Thomlinson

Tiki

Westbrook

Portis

JJones

Ahman

Deuce

Alexander

Thats 18 rb's right there, and then I would say a good argument could be made for Kevin Jones, Thomas Jones, Foster, Barlow and Stephen Jackson as being better picks than Jordan. Plus if Henry ends up in Arizona, he's a top 15 pick. And in TE leagues, you could make a case for Gonzo and Gates going before Jordan. Jordan could very well end up a top 15 back, but I think he has more question marks than the rb's I've mentioned. With the exceptions of a few, they have been guys that have carried the load for entire season. Jordan hasn't shown that yet.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
...Moss is an ideal play action receiver...
What does this mean?
If you bite on the Play Action - You're toast.All Day.
Exactly. Play action requires a receiver who can beat man coverage. Moss can beat man coverage better than any receiver in the game today. (Harrison is probably better at beating zone defenses, and Owens is probably best of both worlds, IMO)

You have to think Turner will run the ball a ton early, breaking out play action to keep the safeties away from the line of scrimmage, and keeping Moss and Porter on opposite sides of the field to spread the defense as wide as possible. A big quick RB who can catch the ball pretty well should do very well in this offense.

 

RavenFan

Footballguy
While I do agree that Jordan's not a lock to become a top 10-20 back, to even speculate that he "might not be able to carry the load" is silly. If that was the case, then we'd be skeptical of every rookie back entering the NFL. None of them has ever "carried the load" in the NFL either. Lamont played just as much in college as any other back. I look only at his situation and talent. I think his talent is above average (greater than Rudy, less than Deuce), but his situation is just ok. I love the O, but the D scares me a round or so. I'd take Lamont late 3rd.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
While I do agree that Jordan's not a lock to become a top 10-20 back, to even speculate that he "might not be able to carry the load" is silly. If that was the case, then we'd be skeptical of every rookie back entering the NFL. None of them has ever "carried the load" in the NFL either. Lamont played just as much in college as any other back. I look only at his situation and talent.
Well said.
 

Carter_Can_Fly

Footballguy
While I do agree that Jordan's not a lock to become a top 10-20 back, to even speculate that he "might not be able to carry the load" is silly.  If that was the case, then we'd be skeptical of every rookie back entering the NFL.  None of them has ever "carried the load" in the NFL either.  Lamont played just as much in college as any other back.  I look only at his situation and talent.
Well said.
:thumbup: agreed, finally someone making absolute sense.
 

my man otis

Footballguy
Like last year?
Yes, like last year.Which one of those "studs" did you think was worthy of being a feature back? Please enlighten us. It's the very reason *why* Jordan is there now.

Something nobody has mentioned here is that the Raiders took two linemen high in the draft last year. I imagine that we'll see both of them fit into the system better this year.
What about Norv changing his own philosophy and playing his offensive scheme to the players he has now? There's a lot of talk about Turner riding RBs, but bottom line is you don't run the ball the majority of the time with Moss and Porter lining up at WR. He knew he had no running game last year so he started to throw the ball around in the 2nd half.Same way Billick was an offensive guy, but his personnel now forces him to play conservative on O and win with defense.

Jordan will not be relied upon as the guy on that offense. IMO Collins will be relied upon to get the ball downfield to Moss/Porter more than Jordan's legs will be.

 

Jimmy James

Footballguy
What about Norv changing his own philosophy and playing his offensive scheme to the players he has now? There's a lot of talk about Turner riding RBs, but bottom line is you don't run the ball the majority of the time with Moss and Porter lining up at WR. He knew he had no running game last year so he started to throw the ball around in the 2nd half.Same way Billick was an offensive guy, but his personnel now forces him to play conservative on O and win with defense.Jordan will not be relied upon as the guy on that offense. IMO Collins will be relied upon to get the ball downfield to Moss/Porter more than Jordan's legs will be.
:rotflmao: You're trying to tell me that after Norv got fired in Washington and led the Dolphins to two straight years out of the playoffs due to not adjusting his offense to the players he has, Norv is going to change his tune?That's classic.Norv is a zebra whose stripes will not change. He's not half the coach Billick is, either. The signing of Jordan proves that Norv believes he needs to run first *even* when he has the likes of Porter and Moss.
 

-OZ-

Footballguy
While I do agree that Jordan's not a lock to become a top 10-20 back, to even speculate that he "might not be able to carry the load" is silly. If that was the case, then we'd be skeptical of every rookie back entering the NFL. None of them has ever "carried the load" in the NFL either. Lamont played just as much in college as any other back. I look only at his situation and talent.
Well said.
:thumbup: agreed, finally someone making absolute sense.
As much as I'm not a Lamont Jordan fan, this does make sense.BAD: he's never been the lead RB and is 27 years old

ANSWER: He's had Curtis Martin in front of him

As for the Play action questions, does it really matter?

Basically, it comes down to the obvious statement: Randy Moss helps Lamont Jordan a LOT more than Jordan helps Randy Moss. How good a pass blocker in Jordan? That is where a large part of his value could come in.

 

RavenFan

Footballguy
What's becoming very interesting is the number of RBs in good situation as the primary ball carrier. I remember just a year ago that we were bemoaning the lack of RBs that received the vast majority of their teams carries. Now we have a guy with a decent track record like Lamont, in a situation that seems as if it's condusive to good productivity, and we're ranking him as middle of the road. My how times have changed in FF RB land. The bottom line is that there are a good 15 RBs I'd prefer to Lamont and I think that's a good thing for FF. Maybe we'll start to see other positions (WR, QB) get their fair due in the world of FF.

 

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