I think the Pats lose on purpose today (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

Some people have been saying that the Pats will lose today in order to set up a first-round matchup they want, or even to dictate a Divisional Round opponent.

I think there are too many variables involved for Bellichick to be thinking that way. But he cherishes draft picks, and a loss today could make a very big difference in the Pats draft position.

With a win, they end up 11-5 and could end up picking as low as 29 (based on tiebreakers with other potential 11-5 teams like Minn, Philly, the AZ/GB winner and others). But by losing to finish 10-6, they could pick as high as 23 (again, based on who else ends up 10-6 and what the tiebreakers are). According to the draft chart, the difference in value between pick 23 and 29 is a third-round pick. But even if the difference is only 2 or 3 slots, I think that's more than sufficient for BB to find a way to lose a meaningless game.

 

[FUBAR]

Some people have been saying that the Pats will lose today in order to set up a first-round matchup they want, or even to dictate a Divisional Round opponent.I think there are too many variables involved for Bellichick to be thinking that way. But he cherishes draft picks, and a loss today could make a very big difference in the Pats draft position.With a win, they end up 11-5 and could end up picking as low as 29 (based on tiebreakers with other potential 11-5 teams like Minn, Philly, the AZ/GB winner and others). But by losing to finish 10-6, they could pick as high as 23 (again, based on who else ends up 10-6 and what the tiebreakers are). According to the draft chart, the difference in value between pick 23 and 29 is a third-round pick. But even if the difference is only 2 or 3 slots, I think that's more than sufficient for BB to find a way to lose a meaningless game.

He's pretty sneaky but there's no way he makes them lose to gain a couple slots. If I'm the 3 or 4 seed I just don't want to play the Ravens or Steelers (if Polamalu is back)

 

[eefflrat]

I could be wrong, but I think you are wrong. They will get their draft pick based on where they finish in the playoffs right?

If they win the super bowl they will get the 32 pick. If they lose the superbowl 31, and so on. I don't see where the regular season record plays into this if they win in the playoffs.

 

[The_Man]

Here's how the order is determined -- Super Bowl participants go last no matter what, but other playoff results don't matter

The team with the lowest winning percentage at the end of the previous season drafts first in the NFL Draft.• The rest of the teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.• The Super Bowl winner drafts last, even if they do not have the highest winning percentage.• The Super Bowl loser drafts next to last.• Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.• Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I could be wrong, but I think you are wrong. They will get their draft pick based on where they finish in the playoffs right?

Only if they are in the Super Bowl.Super Bowl winner gets pick 32. Super Bowl loser gets pick 31. All other teams' picks are determined by regular season record.

 

[Blackjacks]

I don't see Bill B. ever wanting to lose a game no matter what.

I want Houston to win (I'd love to see them in the playoffs, 10% chance) but I think they have their work cut out for them today.

 

[The_Man]

I don't see Bill B. ever wanting to lose a game no matter what.

We'll see. I'm not a Pats fan, but I find Bill B. fascinating -- I think a lot of people in the NFL are part of the jockocracy and aren't exactly the great minds of our day. But I think Bill B. is an intellectual powerhouse who could have just as easily succeeded in business or academia, if that's the path he had chosen.So, as I was thinking about today's games (looking ahead to who my Ravens might play if they win today) it occurred to me that Bill really has nothing to gain by winning today (since he's likely to be the #3 seed win or lose, and he might actually prefer to be the #4 which he could attain only by losing) but he has something to gain by losing. A better draft position, and we know how important picks are to him.

 

[Sinrman]

Some people have been saying that the Pats will lose today in order to set up a first-round matchup they want, or even to dictate a Divisional Round opponent.I think there are too many variables involved for Bellichick to be thinking that way. But he cherishes draft picks, and a loss today could make a very big difference in the Pats draft position.With a win, they end up 11-5 and could end up picking as low as 29 (based on tiebreakers with other potential 11-5 teams like Minn, Philly, the AZ/GB winner and others). But by losing to finish 10-6, they could pick as high as 23 (again, based on who else ends up 10-6 and what the tiebreakers are). According to the draft chart, the difference in value between pick 23 and 29 is a third-round pick. But even if the difference is only 2 or 3 slots, I think that's more than sufficient for BB to find a way to lose a meaningless game.

He's pretty sneaky but there's no way he makes them lose to gain a couple slots. If I'm the 3 or 4 seed I just don't want to play the Ravens or Steelers (if Polamalu is back)

 

[theplayer11]

makes a lot of sense and very few of today's bonehead coaches would even think of it.

 

[tones]

Some people have been saying that the Pats will lose today in order to set up a first-round matchup they want, or even to dictate a Divisional Round opponent.I think there are too many variables involved for Bellichick to be thinking that way. But he cherishes draft picks, and a loss today could make a very big difference in the Pats draft position.With a win, they end up 11-5 and could end up picking as low as 29 (based on tiebreakers with other potential 11-5 teams like Minn, Philly, the AZ/GB winner and others). But by losing to finish 10-6, they could pick as high as 23 (again, based on who else ends up 10-6 and what the tiebreakers are). According to the draft chart, the difference in value between pick 23 and 29 is a third-round pick. But even if the difference is only 2 or 3 slots, I think that's more than sufficient for BB to find a way to lose a meaningless game.

He's pretty sneaky but there's no way he makes them lose to gain a couple slots. If I'm the 3 or 4 seed I just don't want to play the Ravens or Steelers (if Polamalu is back)

I agree with BB not playing his starters for the whole game but as he says about preseason there are not enough players to bench all of them so he rests Brady, Welker, Moss at some point once he sees what he wants. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me to see BB try to show the league something that they will have to waste precious preparation time on that he wouldn't need against SD or Indy. Basically try to influence a game plan further down the road.I disagree with the concept about not playing Pitt or Baltimore. They are easy to game plan and it comes down to execution and mental/physical toughness. BUT the most important thing to remember is that while this isn't NE's 2007 offense it also isn't Pitts or Baltimore's dominant defenses. THEY can be run on and passed on. Especially if Troy isn't playing at a meaningful level. On the offense side Pitt MUST throw and Baltimore is much more balanced then in the past few years. I know I do this and think others do as well. How are they playing RIGHT now with the players that will play and not to look at how they have played historically.

 

[bostonfred]

If I were playing outdoor football in New England next weekend, there's no way I'd want to play it against a team as physical as the Ravens or Steelers. It has nothing to do with them being good or bad teams, although both of them are obviously dangerous and playoff tested.

 

[Aardvarks]

The Pats will rest a ton of players and give away the game but not for that reason