I think the weekly waiver wire upgrade/downgrade report needs work (1 Viewer)

[GreenNGold]

It seems to be way too reactionary trying to get you to blow your load on the weekly flash of brilliance.

I don't want to give too much away for non-subscribers, but for example, this past week:

RB Andre Ellington, ARI - (waiver wire: 20-40%) - Ellington will continue to share with Rashard Mendenhall, but like Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati, he is proving that he doesn't need a feature back workload to put up solid RB2 numbers. Ellington's value can only grow, and he's already a player that belongs in your lineup every week.

I mean, I had to read that a few times before I knew if they were serious or not when it hit my inbox, really, up to 40% of your blind waiver bids on this guy if you are in a blind bidding waiver league? I passed on him over others in my regular waivers league.

Am I over-reacting here, or have others noticed the same thing? To me, it seems to be a weekly occurrence for multiple players that never amount to anything.

All that being said, please take this as constructive feedback, for those of you from FBG who read this, I still think the waiver wire report provides value and the weekly content provided is an amazing value too.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Suggest you manage your expectations - as in don't expect too much - before you expect more from FBG. The write-ups - passing and rushing matchups, for example - are pretty poorly written and, after several years, have grown stale and uninteresting. Frankly, I rarely bother anymore. And FBG has stepped away from maintaining its best asset, this message board. They've checked out.

 

[zilladog]

Yeah... But they got the contest. Keeps me coming back.

 

[elbowrm]

You think playing Seattle had anything to do with it?

 

[mbrasi]

You think playing Seattle had anything to do with it?

First time in 3 weeks he was on my bench.

 

[maf005]

It seems to be way too reactionary trying to get you to blow your load on the weekly flash of brilliance.

I don't want to give too much away for non-subscribers, but for example, this past week:

RB Andre Ellington, ARI - (waiver wire: 20-40%) - Ellington will continue to share with Rashard Mendenhall, but like Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati, he is proving that he doesn't need a feature back workload to put up solid RB2 numbers. Ellington's value can only grow, and he's already a player that belongs in your lineup every week.

I mean, I had to read that a few times before I knew if they were serious or not when it hit my inbox, really, up to 40% of your blind waiver bids on this guy if you are in a blind bidding waiver league? I passed on him over others in my regular waivers league.

Am I over-reacting here, or have others noticed the same thing? To me, it seems to be a weekly occurrence for multiple players that never amount to anything.

All that being said, please take this as constructive feedback, for those of you from FBG who read this, I still think the waiver wire report provides value and the weekly content provided is an amazing value too.

They've been hyping him for a few weeks now. Ofc they're going to suggest blowing your budget

 

[The Jerk]

Try to keep in mind that every league is different, and just use the blind bidding percentages as a relative ordering.

If a given league never exceeds 25% for any player, then you can adjust all percentages down proportionally. Or vice versa.

All fantasy sports writing is subject to either overreaction or stubborn refusal to see that the landscape has changed. Most FBG staff are in the overreaction group. The good thing is that this keeps you ahead of trends; the bad thing is that a lot of times you can end up a year early on a player if it's redraft.

For some reason I always remember 2004, when David Terrell jumped from #48 WR to #18 WR on the strength of a 5 catch 126 yard Week 1. He ended up with -15 yards in Week 2 (0 catches, 1 rush for -15 yards). After Week 1, Terrell averaged fewer than 3 touches for just under 42 yards per game for the rest of that season, including a whopping one touchdown. One of the all-time overreactions to jump him 30 spots into mid-WR2 territory.

Here's the thing: early in the season, if you aren't willing to LOOK like you overreacted, then you probably miss out on the surprise breakout players. Just for one example from this year... I drafted Julius Thomas, but it was due to the advice of another FF service. If you didn't draft him, and were thinking it would be overreaction to pick him up after Week 1, you've missed out on one of the best available steals in 2013.

 

[Mistabishi]

I subscribed to all the ff sites this year for the first time every just to compare products. I find the IDP content here during the season off the charts great and the strategy articles are second to none. I wish more emphasis was put toward waiver/fa analysis as what is offered is good not great.

 

[Spin]

I subscribed to all the ff sites this year for the first time every just to compare products. I find the IDP content here during the season off the charts great and the strategy articles are second to none. I wish more emphasis was put toward waiver/fa analysis as what is offered is good not great.

By far the best I've found, keeps me coming back each year. Norton / Bramel and the rest of the IDP guys here are top notch.

 

[solorca]

If Ellington is on your waiver wire, 40% of your budget is absolutely reasonable. Running backs are hard to come by, and coming into this week he was getting more and more involved each week.

I'd gladly blow 40% of my budget on a RB that may be an RB2/Flex option this late in the season. In my PPR league, he was RB20 coming into this week's game.

If you have the benefit of seeing into the future and knowing he'd produce less this week, maybe it's a different story, but all signs pointed to him becoming a focal point of the offense (and I still believe he will be).

 

[UnderDawgs]

It was Seattle.

You know, along with the WW advice - there was also the Week 7 Running Back Tiers by Sig where he purposely says: Boom or Bust.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think there was another post like this last year.

I really like the article, but the values are off if you take them literally. I think I recall after first week last year that the article recommended something like 20% for Stephen Hill and 20% for Alshon Jeffery (that's last year, not this, after his first game). If you followed the earler WW article to the letter and digit you would probably be out of bidding money after week 3. There is another article by Pasquino or Terfetiller (sp?) which tries to give more rational auction values.

I think the point is, if you have $100, and if you haven't spent any of it, that is the amount it would take to be sure you outbid anyone or everyone else for one single player. Or maybe the idea is, at this time of year, maybe you have $20 remaining so 20-40% would be $4-$8. I don't know, they could clarify that somewhat. The best kind of article of this sort tells you when to get someone 1-2 weeks ahead and spend $0. Again, I do appereciate the insights. This is all food for thought anyway and FF'ers should be using the info to make their own conclusions, not follow every word right off a bridge.

 

[Topes]

Personally, I'm never sure what I'm reading.

I'd rather the waiver wire content be one article and the upgrade/downgrade be a different article.

I can imagine why they're together, as one never knows how deep a league is. But there's a lot of information in the article that has no bearing on anybody anywhere looking for waiver ideas.

 

[renesauz]

If Ellington is on your waiver wire, 40% of your budget is absolutely reasonable. Running backs are hard to come by, and coming into this week he was getting more and more involved each week.

I'd gladly blow 40% of my budget on a RB that may be an RB2/Flex option this late in the season. In my PPR league, he was RB20 coming into this week's game.

If you have the benefit of seeing into the future and knowing he'd produce less this week, maybe it's a different story, but all signs pointed to him becoming a focal point of the offense (and I still believe he will be).

NOthing wrong with the report. Complaining that it's too reactionary is just plain silly. If you don't react, you don't get the player, because he'll be long gone by the time you decide to move.

 

[The Jerk]

Complaining that it's too reactionary is just plain silly. If you don't react, you don't get the player, because he'll be long gone by the time you decide to move

But I think there is a point where the advice/adjustments can be too volatile. As always, there is not a one size fits all way to write an article for mass distribution.

I've seen plenty of overreactions. Some are only clear with hindsight, but not all. Each reader needs to make his own valuation relative to his/her roster and his/her league.

 

[elbowrm]

Everything people are asking for is available on the audible podcast, for free. They've been talking about Ellington for weeks.

 

[Bob Barker]

it just seems like the upgrade/downgrades are just a list of players who had a good or bad game the past week

 

[The Jerk]

I randomly picked week 3's report to see what was there.

Coby Fleener 30-50% Break the bank if you're hard up at TE

Josh Gordon and DeAndre Hopkins valued the same at 25-50%

Joique Bell 20-40%

Eddie Royal 15-25%

These are the top five suggestions for this week. Only Gordon has proven to be worth it. Granted, there's a lot of football left, and maybe it's too easy with hindsight, but I think it's fair to say there was some overreaction there.

 

[The Jerk]

it just seems like the upgrade/downgrades are just a list of players who had a good or bad game the past week

Ding! Ding! Ding!

When most of us could get close to the actual content of the article in probably half an hour or collating information - and granted, there's a lot of knowledgeable people in the Shark Pool - it's a good indicator that it is mostly absent of any insight below surface level information.

 

[Jutz]

The one time where I was left scratching my head on the offensive upgrade was Devon Bess. I almost put him at the top of my waiver pickup bid based on what they said. This was before Hoyer got hurt... but still. I was surprised they gave him such a good evaluation.

 

[The Dude]

The best waiver wire advice is in the message board thread