I Traded Gonzo away (1 Viewer)

[aldelgreco]

That's right...and I'm not scared to admit it. I got Gonzo in the 5th round of my draft, and I have been seeing Watson going almost as high in other drafts I have witnessed. I have my last money draft on sunday, and I hope to pick him up for better value (10th or 11th round), but to me, Gonzalez is poised like none of the other "elite" TEs to have a down year. I don't have to go into every reason why, as I have been seeing the issue discussed on here for a month. He's going to have to spend a lot more time blocking than being a primary receiving threat with everything that has gone on with that O-Line. If Branch leaves, I am convinced that B Watson will be the primary receiving threat.

So am I a guppy? Maybe. I'm going with my gut. If he goes A Gates on us (REAL possibility) I'm going to look like a genius.

 

[Tong Po]

Aren't these threads always followed by... "Talk Me Off the Ledge"?

 

[amnesiac]

That's right...and I'm not scared to admit it. I got Gonzo in the 5th round of my draft, and I have been seeing Watson going almost as high in other drafts I have witnessed. I have my last money draft on sunday, and I hope to pick him up for better value (10th or 11th round), but to me, Gonzalez is poised like none of the other "elite" TEs to have a down year. I don't have to go into every reason why, as I have been seeing the issue discussed on here for a month. He's going to have to spend a lot more time blocking than being a primary receiving threat with everything that has gone on with that O-Line. If Branch leaves, I am convinced that B Watson will be the primary receiving threat.So am I a guppy? Maybe. I'm going with my gut. If he goes A Gates on us (REAL possibility) I'm going to look like a genius.

when was your draft?

 

[aldelgreco]

That's right...and I'm not scared to admit it. I got Gonzo in the 5th round of my draft, and I have been seeing Watson going almost as high in other drafts I have witnessed. I have my last money draft on sunday, and I hope to pick him up for better value (10th or 11th round), but to me, Gonzalez is poised like none of the other "elite" TEs to have a down year. I don't have to go into every reason why, as I have been seeing the issue discussed on here for a month. He's going to have to spend a lot more time blocking than being a primary receiving threat with everything that has gone on with that O-Line. If Branch leaves, I am convinced that B Watson will be the primary receiving threat.So am I a guppy? Maybe. I'm going with my gut. If he goes A Gates on us (REAL possibility) I'm going to look like a genius.

when was your draft?

July 29th.

 

[cscmtp]

I think its a godo move, especially in a dynasty. Gonzo's offense is going to look VERY different, and Watson appears to the be #1 option in the NE offense. Plus, what QB would you rather have throwing your TE the ball, Brady or Green? I'll take Brady all day.

 

[Otis]

I think its a godo move

Agree completely.

 

[amnesiac]

That's right...and I'm not scared to admit it. I got Gonzo in the 5th round of my draft, and I have been seeing Watson going almost as high in other drafts I have witnessed. I have my last money draft on sunday, and I hope to pick him up for better value (10th or 11th round), but to me, Gonzalez is poised like none of the other "elite" TEs to have a down year. I don't have to go into every reason why, as I have been seeing the issue discussed on here for a month. He's going to have to spend a lot more time blocking than being a primary receiving threat with everything that has gone on with that O-Line. If Branch leaves, I am convinced that B Watson will be the primary receiving threat.So am I a guppy? Maybe. I'm going with my gut. If he goes A Gates on us (REAL possibility) I'm going to look like a genius.

when was your draft?

July 29th.

well, i'm glad you were able to change your mind then.a lot can happen in a month.

 

[Warpig]

Good job. Gonzo is gonna disappoint this year due to the Herminator's phylosophy and the lack of a quality O-line.

 

[Cenobite]

In a keeper league - no., in a re-draft - probably. I am a Watson owner in a keeper league (drafted him last year) and like his potential. That said, I would be happy if Watson got Tony G's #s from last year. This year, I think Tony G's #s will be around the same with 5+ TDs. I give you credit for having the guts to make this trade. It's a sink or swim type deal. I loathe trading players one for one for this reason.

 

[J-Rock]

I completely disagree with popular opinion in this thread. Bottom line, I think you made a bad decesion.

Gonzo had a down year last year and still finished as the #2 TE in rec and yds. His 2TDs was really disapointing. He may need to stay in to block a bit more due to the loss of Roaf but his TDs are a virtual lock to to get back to his historical averages. If anything the loss of Raof will probably hurt the redzone running game (he is a huge OT) which should mean Green will be looking to pass off of play action (LJ will get a lot of goal line attention from Defences) to get the ball to his favorite target in the endzone.

The problem with all the Watson hype is that NE traditionally use a 2 TE system and as we all know Brady loves to spread the wealth. I cant recall a solid pass catcher in FF terms with Brady at the helm. I think

Watson could emerge as a good top 10 TE but Gonzo is a lock for top 5 probably top 3.

p.s.

I've got both of these guys on my roster in seperate leagues.

 

[amnesiac]

just to be clear, i have no idea if Watson will outscore Gonzo.

but, i will give the original poster credit for this:

1. deciding that things that happened after his draft had changed his opinion of these players, and

2. was willing to make a move instead of stubbornly sticking with his original player simply because he spent a high pick on him.

 

[smcindoe]

Could Watson outperform Gonzo? Definitely.

Could you have got more than a straight-up swap? Probably.

 

[shadyridr]

I think it was a great move for you. I had Watson ranked as my 4th TE and was all set to take him in the 6th round when someone swooped in 3 picks ahead of me to grab him. That was the low point of my draft. I ended up with Winslow instead.

 

[The Jerk]

I completely disagree with popular opinion in this thread. Bottom line, I think you made a bad decesion. Gonzo had a down year last year and still finished as the #2 TE in rec and yds. His 2TDs was really disapointing. He may need to stay in to block a bit more due to the loss of Roaf but his TDs are a virtual lock to to get back to his historical averages. If anything the loss of Raof will probably hurt the redzone running game (he is a huge OT) which should mean Green will be looking to pass off of play action (LJ will get a lot of goal line attention from Defences) to get the ball to his favorite target in the endzone.The problem with all the Watson hype is that NE traditionally use a 2 TE system and as we all know Brady loves to spread the wealth. I cant recall a solid pass catcher in FF terms with Brady at the helm. I think Watson could emerge as a good top 10 TE but Gonzo is a lock for top 5 probably top 3. p.s. I've got both of these guys on my roster in seperate leagues.

I'm OK with the decision, but more because I'm down on Gonzalez than high on Watson. I see the potential for Watson to take a large jump in his numbers. However, I agree that Brady spreads the ball around, especially for TDs. Last year, Brady threw 12 TDs to "tight ends" but only 4 went to Watson. 3 went to Graham, 3 went to Vrabel, and 2 went to Fauria. I expect Watson to get at least 6 TDs, but I don't think it's logical to expect Brady to suddenly throw ONLY to Watson.The potential absence of Branch is being thought of as a bonanza for Watson owners, and it might be. However, physics teaches us that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Defenses will not deploy the same way they did last year when Givens and especially Branch drew more attention than a rookie Watson. I doubt Watson's preseason explosion came against a defense that had game-planned for the Patriots as teams will when the games count.I like Watson a lot this year but just like every other player -- at the right value.

 

[Tau837]

I completely disagree with popular opinion in this thread. Bottom line, I think you made a bad decesion. Gonzo had a down year last year and still finished as the #2 TE in rec and yds. His 2TDs was really disapointing. He may need to stay in to block a bit more due to the loss of Roaf but his TDs are a virtual lock to to get back to his historical averages. If anything the loss of Raof will probably hurt the redzone running game (he is a huge OT) which should mean Green will be looking to pass off of play action (LJ will get a lot of goal line attention from Defences) to get the ball to his favorite target in the endzone.The problem with all the Watson hype is that NE traditionally use a 2 TE system and as we all know Brady loves to spread the wealth. I cant recall a solid pass catcher in FF terms with Brady at the helm. I think Watson could emerge as a good top 10 TE but Gonzo is a lock for top 5 probably top 3. p.s. I've got both of these guys on my roster in seperate leagues.

 

[Topes]

If he goes A Gates on us (REAL possibility)

Yes, but real remote. As a Watson owner, I'd love to see it. But I have Watson as my #2 to Witten, and I'll bet he sits a good deal for my team. Do I think you're nuts? Not at all. Go with your gut. If you're wrong, you're probably not too wrong.Good Luck!

(I would love to see him go A Gates, as well.)

 

[SSOG]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview06/ne...age=Patriots/06

Ben Watson is possibly the most overrated player in the NFL. He is thought of as a fairly good vertical threat and the Patriots did throw him 13 deep and 15 medium passes last year. Watson ended up with a 4.4-yard SYPA (success percentage multiplied by yards per attempt) rating, however, and that is a terribly low figure for a vertical target.

Watson's blocking was not much better than his receiving. His 68 percent run blocking success percentage was the fifth-worst percentage for a tight end last year and the 2.5 yards per run attempt behind Watson's blocks was next to last among tight ends.

Watson has Pro Bowl caliber talent but his numbers clearly show that he has a long way to go to reach his potential.

 

[KevT]

Good job getting rid of Gonzo. Don't see him doing much better than last year.

Roaf is no longer there, Richardson is gone, which means that Gonzo will be required to block more. Of course, Herm Edwards might be smart and see that Gonzo is their best receiver and bring in other TE to block and just let Gonzo play WR the entire year. Not saying Vermeil was dumb, just saying that Gonzo shouldn't have been taken out of the offense last year.

 

[davper]

I think you are right about Watson being a good TE and probably better than Gonzo in light of the ??? in KC. But essentially you drafted a TE in 5th round that MIGHT be good when you traded for Watson.

NE spreads the ball around so much and changes their game plan from week to week, who can you really trust on that team to be a consistent week to week fantasy stud besides Brady?

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

I think you are right about Watson being a good TE and probably better than Gonzo in light of the ??? in KC. But essentially you drafted a TE in 5th round that MIGHT be good when you traded for Watson.NE spreads the ball around so much and changes their game plan from week to week, who can you really trust on that team to be a consistent week to week fantasy stud besides Brady?

Subsitute in LJ for Brady and KC for NE and we could pose the same question for KC.Getting Watson isn't a guarantee that you'll have a fantasy "stud" every week ala Gates, but if he can give you 5-7 TD's and 550-700 yards, that's pretty darn studly compared to other TE's. Gonzo is more of a blue chip, safe pick. Watson is more of a gamble as he has very little history behind him.

 

[Double_J]

Good job getting rid of Gonzo. Don't see him doing much better than last year.Roaf is no longer there, Richardson is gone, which means that Gonzo will be required to block more. Of course, Herm Edwards might be smart and see that Gonzo is their best receiver and bring in other TE to block and just let Gonzo play WR the entire year. Not saying Vermeil was dumb, just saying that Gonzo shouldn't have been taken out of the offense last year.

Don't see him doing much better than last year??? So you don't want a top 5 TE?

 

[KevT]

Good job getting rid of Gonzo. Don't see him doing much better than last year.Roaf is no longer there, Richardson is gone, which means that Gonzo will be required to block more. Of course, Herm Edwards might be smart and see that Gonzo is their best receiver and bring in other TE to block and just let Gonzo play WR the entire year. Not saying Vermeil was dumb, just saying that Gonzo shouldn't have been taken out of the offense last year.

Don't see him doing much better than last year??? So you don't want a top 5 TE?

My mistake, his TD total was stuck in my head, didn't realize he had 78 catches and 900 yards. Just remember last year when he had only 2 TDs. Gonzo straight up for Watson isn't a good idea, the orignal poster should have gotten more for a proven top 5 TE.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

I like Watson alot as i have him in 4 of my 6 dynastys....he's the te i target for sure. Him Troupe and H.Miller.

Actually on one of my dynastys I have Gonzo Watson and H.Miller...Imma have headaches all season trying to find which one to play...

 

[trader jake]

I believe you overthought yourself on this trade. Gonzo > Watson in redraft and dynasty.

Even if Gonzo gets off to a rough start his perceived value/trade value is still there...if Watson doesn't show something early he'll drop like a rock in most owners eyes. I just don't see the upside to this move myself.

 

[sterjs]

I'm OK with the decision, but more because I'm down on Gonzalez than high on Watson.

If this is true, why did you draft Gonzo in the firs tplace? Nothing has changed since you drafted him.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm OK with the decision, but more because I'm down on Gonzalez than high on Watson.

If this is true, why did you draft Gonzo in the firs tplace? Nothing has changed since you drafted him.

I didn't draft him. Read the thread again, and you'll see I'm responding to the initial poster.ETA: I was disagreeing with a previous poster who stated that he thought the move made by the initial poster was a bad one.

 

[tommyboy]

well considering I traded Gonzalez straight up for Tory Holt 4 yrs ago, I'd say you got hosed.

If you're going to trade away a top 3 guy at ANY position, you better get a top 3 guy back.

 

[Gravity]

Honestly...

Pure Guppy.

Gonzo is a gauranteed top 5. Even if Watson somehow lives up to the hype he won't best Gonzo by much.

Its trades (and hype) like this that causes FFL teams to be mediocre year after year.

Go with the proven stud.

Just bein real.

 

[ratdog]

Honestly...Pure Guppy.Gonzo is a gauranteed top 5. Even if Watson somehow lives up to the hype he won't best Gonzo by much.Its trades (and hype) like this that causes FFL teams to be mediocre year after year.Go with the proven stud.Just bein real.

AMEN

 

[Borat]

Terrible move. Even if Watson outperforms Gonzalez, which I wouldn't count on, you still could have gotten more - a lot more.

 

[The Jacket]

I concur with the "terrible trade" taste now dominating the thread.

Gonzalez is almost a lock to catch 65-70+ passes. The Chiefs' offense just doesn't have the other options in the passing game, and do you really think that Herm Edwards' philosophy will put an end to Trent Green completely? I don't.

Under Edwards, Chad Pennington completed 242 and 276 passes in two seperate seasons; and in neither of which did he play 15 games. Green's an accurate passer with a good stint of 16-game seasons under his belt in Kansas City.

Green's completions as a Chief: 296, 287, 330, 369, 317. In only one of those seasons did he complete less than 61% of his passes. In all of those seasons, there was a high-caliber running game in place similar to the one that should be there this season.

I think it's unreasonable to predict less than, say, 250 completions for Green. And that's being conservative. I don't see fewer than 60-70 of those going to Gonzalez.

What about the yardage? Well, Pennington's yards per attempt average under Edwards was not all that much lower than Green's the past five seasons, and you have to take into account that Green threw a lot more passes.

The touchdowns will be the deciding factor. Whoever the coach might be, I have to believe that he will catch no less than two touchdowns in 2006. Given where he placed last season, even in spite of the lack of touchdowns, I'm convinced that Gonzalez is still a much, much better option than Ben Watson.

 

[Spike]

Could Watson outperform Gonzo? Definitely.Could you have got more than a straight-up swap? Probably.

 

[Bushman9]

Same pattern here. One can not get caught up in hype. In God we trust and all others bring data. Gonzo has brought the data consistently. Even a down year last year had him in upper echelon of TE's. Watson had a good preseason, but not a full season. Don't get me wrong; I think he will do well but at the right price.

Bad trade.