What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Ian Rappaport may have figured out the NE TE decoder (1 Viewer)

Sweet Love said:
Hipple said:
and he said this is Hernandez's weekend errr Monday, even though he might be matched up a bunch with darelle revis.....

very interesting article.
Click to expand...
While this may be true, if the Pats brought back Caotes for this game, he would likely put up 6-67 against the Jets. We can shut down WRs, but TEs is a whole different ballgame. i would not be surprised if hernandez ans Gronkowski combine for 150 yards and the WRs walked away with 100...
Click to expand...
to be fair he didn't say gronk wouldn't get his, just that the man to man plays into Herndos game and thus favors him for a nice matchup.

 
Nice post and article. Have a decision in my Championship Game this weekend, and it feels like Hernandez has the higher ceiling over Marcedes and Boss, esp with that gaping hole in the middle of the field from Leonhard's injury. Gonna prob roll the dice and go with the rook, since my opponent is stacked and i need pts to keep up.

 
To me the only decoder is a coin flip unfortunately unless you can get into the mind of BB

Fact is I doubt Gronk will be covered by Revis/Cro either so just choose one and hope....

But I am sure the Jets remember getting burned by Hernandez the last game.

 
I think Gronkowski will have much better matchups this week vs the Jets. It may be Hernandez 'week' going in to the game, but Im sure the Pats realize the Jets dont have anyone who's a real good matchup for Gronk this week, either. Hernandez has said he's looking forward to a team that covers man-to-man, but if its Revis doing the covering, I dont think that bodes real well for him. Gronkowski's the player here. jmho

 
The bottom line in all of this is that things have changed since they first played early on in this season. Hernandez was in the game a lot more, he was the TE to play because he was in on most of the plays.

That's not the case as the season has developed. Hernandez is in on less than half the plays and Brady just doesn't look his way. Gronkowski has proven to be a reliable blocker and can catch the ball. He's way better than Hernandez as a TE, he does the job.

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
The bottom line in all of this is that things have changed since they first played early on in this season. Hernandez was in the game a lot more, he was the TE to play because he was in on most of the plays.That's not the case as the season has developed. Hernandez is in on less than half the plays and Brady just doesn't look his way. Gronkowski has proven to be a reliable blocker and can catch the ball. He's way better than Hernandez as a TE, he does the job.
Click to expand...
I hope this is right. It seems that Gronk is now catching alot of the intermediate stuff that Hernandez had during the beginning of the season. Right now, it doesn't seem that Hernandez does anything that Gronk can't. And remember, this offense goes through Brady, and the ability to keep him upright. Go Gronk!
 
twitch said:
I think Gronkowski will have much better matchups this week vs the Jets. It may be Hernandez 'week' going in to the game, but Im sure the Pats realize the Jets dont have anyone who's a real good matchup for Gronk this week, either. Hernandez has said he's looking forward to a team that covers man-to-man, but if its Revis doing the covering, I dont think that bodes real well for him. Gronkowski's the player here. jmho
Click to expand...
one of the main truisms behinds the belly-chick fantasy legend is that Bill has no ego when it comes to winning football games. He just wants to win. He doesn't want to 'dominate' you, 'outfinesse' you, by 'winning his way'. The patriots have no 'way'. They are a swiss army knife team, that can beat you in many ways. The only thing we truly have to go on, is what the other teams perceived weaknesses are as a 'template' of what the will do. But much like playing poison drinking with the scicilian in the princess bride, he is always capable of sensing that you would 'expect him to do that', so he instead does a near variation of that designed to feign that attack, but exploit a different weakness or vulnerability that is exposed by trying to guess what he is gonna do.So this is all we got.
 
Anything on this weekend? I have both NE tight ends (and Heap) so I have to figure out which one to start until Heap comes back from the hammy.

 
Ramos said:
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anything on this weekend? I have both NE tight ends (and Heap) so I have to figure out which one to start until Heap comes back from the hammy.
Click to expand...
Chicago plays less man to man so it's Gronk's turn.
Click to expand...
Think I'll roll with Gronk this weekend. I'll trust this guy until his theory proves incorrect.
 
This article nailed it sayn it would be hernandez for monday night. In another thread it was suggested someone look at previous games to see if this holds true. Someone mentioned bears use zone more so does gb

 
What about the juicy week 16 BUF matchup? Anybody know if Buffalo would be more likely to go zone or man-to-man against NE?

 
glock said:
Frankbot said:
What about the juicy week 16 BUF matchup? Anybody know if Buffalo would be more likely to go zone or man-to-man against NE?
Click to expand...
Don't skip week 15... :sheesh:
Click to expand...
Lex already mentioned that GB uses more zone:
lexdizzle said:
This article nailed it sayn it would be hernandez for monday night. In another thread it was suggested someone look at previous games to see if this holds true. Someone mentioned bears use zone more so does gb
Click to expand...
 
Restricted said:
Benching Hernandez. Hope its right.
Click to expand...
if it isnt right all that means is BB knew that the other team was expecting gronkowski and pulled a fast one and threw hernandez in the mix for the slam dunk! or maybe BB knows that he was going to fake out the defense when they would be expecting gronk and play hernandez in zone but threw a curve ball and played gronk cuz they wouldn't see it coming and psyched them out! or maybe ... :blackdot: without evidence that this held true to other games nobody really knows whats going on in BB's head for a gameplan
 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anything on this weekend? I have both NE tight ends (and Heap) so I have to figure out which one to start until Heap comes back from the hammy.
Click to expand...
Im benching them both for Ed Dickson this week.
Ed Dickson is expected to start against the Texans Monday night with Todd Heap (hamstring) considered unlikely to play.Here's your sleeper for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Dickson's seven targets against the Steelers were second on the team, and the Texans surrender the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends. Dickson will be a top-12 option in Week 14.
Click to expand...
 
E-Z Glider said:
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anything on this weekend? I have both NE tight ends (and Heap) so I have to figure out which one to start until Heap comes back from the hammy.
Click to expand...
Im benching them both for Ed Dickson this week.
Ed Dickson is expected to start against the Texans Monday night with Todd Heap (hamstring) considered unlikely to play.Here's your sleeper for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Dickson's seven targets against the Steelers were second on the team, and the Texans surrender the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends. Dickson will be a top-12 option in Week 14.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Same here.
 
:excited: so far it has worked and gronkowski was the correct te to plug in vs CHI. i believe GB uses more zone can any homers confirm this?
 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Yes, that's what they said - rolling with Gronk again next week.
Click to expand...
Looks like I am going with gronk too. Hey this guys been right so far... :whistle: Pulled all the week to week target stats for NE TE's and posted it here

Sure looks like most week one guy has been favored. Last 2 weeks this 'system' has been right.

If anyone wants to chime in on what kind of D was played by the week 1-12 d's, please do. I'm too busy right now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
According to this theory, it seems like Gronkowski is definitely the better start next week vs. the Packers.

Just to recap this theory over the last two weeks:

Against the Jets (who used primarily man-to-man coverage on the TE), Hernandez went for 3 catches for 51 yards with a TD whereas Gronkowski had only 1 catch for 12 yards.

Against the Bears (who primarily used their base cover-2 zone coverage), Gronkowski went for 5 catches for 43 yards with a TD whereas Hernadez had only 2 catches for 19 yards.

The Packers tend to run a 3-4 zone blitz defensive scheme led by defensive coordinator Dom Capers. When he was the defensive coordinator for the Steelers, Capers was one of the original architects of the 3-4 zone blitz scheme used by the Steelers over the last 18 years. The same type of 3-4 zone blitz scheme that Gronkowski torched for 5 catches for 72 yards and 3 TDs and that held Hernandez to no catches in the Patriots' Week 10 win over the Steelers.

So, consistent with this theory and Gronkowski's and Hernandez's past performances against Pittsburgh's similar 3-4 zone blitz scheme, it seems like Gronkowski is the better start this week against the Packers.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
E-Z Glider said:
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anything on this weekend? I have both NE tight ends (and Heap) so I have to figure out which one to start until Heap comes back from the hammy.
Click to expand...
Im benching them both for Ed Dickson this week.
Ed Dickson is expected to start against the Texans Monday night with Todd Heap (hamstring) considered unlikely to play.Here's your sleeper for the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Dickson's seven targets against the Steelers were second on the team, and the Texans surrender the most points to opposing fantasy tight ends. Dickson will be a top-12 option in Week 14.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
FAILat least you had lube...
 
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week.

Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?

 
Just curious why you have Daniels on the bench? He is back and healthy, had a lot of targets last game. Also, the Titans are next to last in the league in giving up points to TE's. I am starting Daniels this week and feeling great about it. I like him a lot more than any of the other guys you have.

Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
 
ScottyDog said:
Just curious why you have Daniels on the bench? He is back and healthy, had a lot of targets last game. Also, the Titans are next to last in the league in giving up points to TE's. I am starting Daniels this week and feeling great about it. I like him a lot more than any of the other guys you have.
Click to expand...
Marcedes had a TD against Indy in the first meeting between the Colts and Jags, and everything is pointing toward a total shootout on Sunday. Despite weeks 12 and 13 where he disappeared due to blocking duty, he's been money in the redzone since Garrard constantly looks for a safety valve.Daniels certainly looked impressive in his return to full health this past Monday night, but I worry that he'll have conditioning concerns on Sunday since he's missed most of the season. That being said, you are indeed right about the Titans giving up a lot of points to TEs, however they seem to have quelled those numbers in the past few weeks.This week, it seems like all three (Lewis, Daniels, and Gronk) have equal opportunity to perform well.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
Um, he's sick. My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Aaron pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious
 
Trizzler said:
ScottyDog said:
Just curious why you have Daniels on the bench? He is back and healthy, had a lot of targets last game. Also, the Titans are next to last in the league in giving up points to TE's. I am starting Daniels this week and feeling great about it. I like him a lot more than any of the other guys you have.
Click to expand...
Marcedes had a TD against Indy in the first meeting between the Colts and Jags, and everything is pointing toward a total shootout on Sunday. Despite weeks 12 and 13 where he disappeared due to blocking duty, he's been money in the redzone since Garrard constantly looks for a safety valve.Daniels certainly looked impressive in his return to full health this past Monday night, but I worry that he'll have conditioning concerns on Sunday since he's missed most of the season. That being said, you are indeed right about the Titans giving up a lot of points to TEs, however they seem to have quelled those numbers in the past few weeks.

This week, it seems like all three (Lewis, Daniels, and Gronk) have equal opportunity to perform well.
Click to expand...
I have a marcedes/j graham decision. The only thing that frightens me is this Garrard que + signing todd bouman thing... :)
 
Hipple said:
Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
Um, he's sick. My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Aaron pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious
Click to expand...
HEy everyone... Hipple just got back from the clubs and is drunk!!1!
 
Buckfast 1 said:
The Packers tend to run a 3-4 zone blitz defensive scheme led by defensive coordinator Dom Capers. When he was the defensive coordinator for the Steelers, Capers was one of the original architects of the 3-4 zone blitz scheme used by the Steelers over the last 18 years. The same type of 3-4 zone blitz scheme that Gronkowski torched for 5 catches for 72 yards and 3 TDs and that held Hernandez to no catches in the Patriots' Week 10 win over the Steelers.
Click to expand...
Doesn't this scheme leave a lot of man to man situations?If their corners are locked up on man and there's blitzing in their 3-4 I'd think that leaves Hernandez with man coverage.KY
 
kyoun1e said:
Buckfast 1 said:
The Packers tend to run a 3-4 zone blitz defensive scheme led by defensive coordinator Dom Capers. When he was the defensive coordinator for the Steelers, Capers was one of the original architects of the 3-4 zone blitz scheme used by the Steelers over the last 18 years. The same type of 3-4 zone blitz scheme that Gronkowski torched for 5 catches for 72 yards and 3 TDs and that held Hernandez to no catches in the Patriots' Week 10 win over the Steelers.
Click to expand...
Doesn't this scheme leave a lot of man to man situations?If their corners are locked up on man and there's blitzing in their 3-4 I'd think that leaves Hernandez with man coverage.

KY
Click to expand...
they blitz but its a zone blitz...
 
Saw this on ESPN

I feel like I finally have a formula I can go on with the Patriots' tight ends. Last week I mentioned I was more interested in playing Rob Gronkowski because I feel like he's on the field much more against primarily zone defenses. That bore fruit: Gronk played 71 snaps and Aaron Hernandez played only 20 (including some two-tight end sets). This week, against a very man-to-man-heavy Packers defense (which, by the way, you're advised to bench Sunday), I believe Hernandez will see his snap count increase quite a bit, so much so that I ranked him ahead of Gronkowski. Both are in No. 2 tight end territory, though.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
I think I'm starting Gronk over Tamme this week as it seems Tamme is getting pulled in the Red Zone lately...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ScottyDog said:
Just curious why you have Daniels on the bench? He is back and healthy, had a lot of targets last game. Also, the Titans are next to last in the league in giving up points to TE's. I am starting Daniels this week and feeling great about it. I like him a lot more than any of the other guys you have.

Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Schaub had 62 attempts last week and Dreesen is still involved. I think last week's production might be a bit of a mirage....or at least skewed and would be hesitant about expecting that from Daniels this week. Of course I could be wrong and Daniels could be back to the #1 again. Would love to see how many snaps each played.
 
shadyridr said:
Saw this on ESPN

I feel like I finally have a formula I can go on with the Patriots' tight ends. Last week I mentioned I was more interested in playing Rob Gronkowski because I feel like he's on the field much more against primarily zone defenses. That bore fruit: Gronk played 71 snaps and Aaron Hernandez played only 20 (including some two-tight end sets). This week, against a very man-to-man-heavy Packers defense (which, by the way, you're advised to bench Sunday), I believe Hernandez will see his snap count increase quite a bit, so much so that I ranked him ahead of Gronkowski. Both are in No. 2 tight end territory, though.
Click to expand...
:homer:
Click to expand...
so he stole Ian Rappaports work, is now calling it his theory, and doesn't know what the packers defense is. :shrug:
 
Hipple said:
Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
Um, he's sick. My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Aaron pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious
Click to expand...
Just glad to know it wasn't your sister who got him sick. :shrug: The whole Bouman thing has me highly concerned. If Garrard is having mobility problems, Lewis will probably be called to block more often, taking away his targets. The Jags will also want to use MJD and Jennings as much as possible to run the clock down. Best option for me might just be dropping Lewis for Gronk, especially since my opponent is starting Brady.As for someone declaring that GB is playing man coverage, they haven't watched a single snap of football this season.
 
Trizzler said:
Hipple said:
Trizzler said:
I'm in the same boat as you. Currently have Marcedes starting, Daniels on the bench, and considering picking up Gronk now that Hernandez is ill. Absolutely must have strong output from the TE position this week. Any homers willing to expand on how sick Hernandez really is?
Click to expand...
Um, he's sick. My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Aaron pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious
Click to expand...
Just glad to know it wasn't your sister who got him sick. :D The whole Bouman thing has me highly concerned. If Garrard is having mobility problems, Lewis will probably be called to block more often, taking away his targets. The Jags will also want to use MJD and Jennings as much as possible to run the clock down. Best option for me might just be dropping Lewis for Gronk, especially since my opponent is starting Brady.As for someone declaring that GB is playing man coverage, they haven't watched a single snap of football this season.
Click to expand...
That's what makes it so laughable that it's THAT guy that broke the NE TE code, not Rappaport (though Rappsport's was out 2 weeks earlier), i bet this guy is just acting like he came up with it... hilarious
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's positional rankings (summer edition)
2
Replies
67
Views
2K
wgoldsph
wgoldsph
T
Travdogg's FA/1st round predictions
2
Replies
82
Views
3K
Ray_T
R
FFCollusion
Roster Churning: Week 1
Replies
24
Views
2K
BobbyLayne
BobbyLayne

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top