IDP League Strategy - Passes Defended (1 Viewer)

[Coloradan Stuck In Texas]

I'd like to get some feedback on general strategies for targeting defensive players who get a lot of defended passes. I'm in a league where the commish has the DP stat worth double that of a tackle, and equal to a sack. Just as there are ways to optimize player selection for tackles (3-4 scheme vs 4-3, etc.) anyone have any proved method for DPs? Thanks.

 

[northern exposure]

I'm interested to hear other people's takes on this subject as well. What I can offer is that our first year dynasty IDP league has the exact same settings and tell you how I choose my defensive players each week.

In my mind it is a difficult category to predict because it is dependent on opportunity which is in turn dependent on the opposition they face each week. So, I try to choose players that are facing opponents that throw the ball a lot (Arizona, New Orleans,etc.) - I know that is a duh! statement. But, in addition to that I'll target rookies( ex. Brandon Carr of the Chiefs) that will probably get "picked on" by the opposing team because they are unproven or a guy that plays opposite a "shutdown" CB (DeAngelo Hall for example because he plays opposite Nnamdi Asomugha) and most teams stay away from Nnamdi, so they throw to their guy being covered by Hall.

I'll also target DBs that draw the other team's #1 WR in coverage. Jabari Greer is a good example from this week's games because he will probably cover Fitzgerald and with Boldin out, Warner should be looking Fitz's way quite a bit during the game.

For non-DB players, like LBs, I stick with sure tacklers that also will cover RBs and TEs in coverage and are athletic enough to do it, Kirk Morrison of the Raiders is a good example.

Well that is my two cents worth, it is hardly a proven strategy because we are only going into week 5 of my first season playing in an IDP league with these settings, so I'll be interested to see other people's takes on the topic.

 

[Rozelle]

Well with the type of scoring you have, you have to give it consideration. We're tracking PDs and PDs allowed (by team) and by player in our subscriber content. Like most everything else in the fantasy football world, it's difficult to predict who will get PDs.

Teams who are scoring alot of PDs can obviously increase you're odds and on the flip side teams who don't allow many PDs can help you steer clear of.

Four weeks into the season the NFL average (per team) for PDs is 4.5. There are three teams averaging over seven, two teams averaging less than two.

My strategy in a scoring system like this would be, rookie corner rule, and utilize the subscriber content where you can evaluate teams PDs and PDs allowed, Drinen's IDP Matchup Analyzer and read all the outstanding IDP content from Norton, Bramel, Borbely, McGaw, Baker and the guys.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think a number of things are worth considering.

Even before thinking about weekly matchups, a defensive back needs three specific skills (among others) to be able to make plays on the ball -- coverage instincts (whether zone or man), recovery speed and ball skills. Most of that can be gleaned from scouting reports before they reach the NFL if you're not a big college football person and by watching games and tracking stats. Without those skills, a defensive back isn't going to rack up PDs unless his opportunity is extraordinary.

Generally speaking, you'll be looking for man cover corners over zone cover corners because the man corners are likely to be tighter in coverage more frequently. Skill is more important than scheme for safeties, though a solid cover free safety who gets some extra chances in man coverage on tight ends or slot receivers are worth watching.

Specific weekly matchups are important, especially for borderline cases. Offenses that throw more often than they run and/or are more likely to be far behind early will provide much better opportunity than those that are ball control/run offenses or won't be forced to throw by an opposing defense. You may also need to consider how balanced an offense is (i.e. is the WR2 close in talent (or likely targets) to the WR1) and whether a given DB prospect's teammates are likely to be thrown at more or less often (i.e. avoid a shutdown corner, target a new or rookie corner).

Linebackers most likely to hit double digit passes defensed include MLBs and WLBs that play a lot of zone coverage and are talented enough to be used in man coverage on TEs and RBs. That usually means Cover-2/Tampa-2 guys are the best options, but it's not absolute.

In the past, you could also target certain stadium stat crews that were much more liberal with PDs than others. That's not nearly as easy as it used to be, however.

By now, you're probably thinking that all of this is silly. And, to some extent, it's paralysis by analysis. Unless you really want to get to the bottom of every matchup angle, it's worth having a cursory idea of what kind of talent a player has and how many pass attempts they're likely to face. If you're not sure, questions are always welcome and there are a number of tools and stats available at FBG to help determine matchups.

 

[Coloradan Stuck In Texas]

That's some really intriguing advice - makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

You sold me BTW, signed up as a paid member. I'm in 4 leagues and have only lost 3 matchups so far and I credit your podcasts for my success [certainly not one of the 90210 loving "fantasy football experts"]. Can't wait to use the information inside. Keep up the good work.