IDP strategy question (1 Viewer)

[johnnybronco]

i'm in 3 IDP leagues and I haven't been able to figure it out as of yet. 1st year IDP'er so maybe its a learning curve.

But what do you look for in starting LBs, DBs, DEs. I would imagine a weak running defense such as Indy's would be huge for a safety. But what type of safety, strong or free.

Do you look for a strong running games for the opposition and base your LBs on that. just very curious and confused.

 

[Jene Bramel]

i'm in 3 IDP leagues and I haven't been able to figure it out as of yet. 1st year IDP'er so maybe its a learning curve.

But what do you look for in starting LBs, DBs, DEs. I would imagine a weak running defense such as Indy's would be huge for a safety. But what type of safety, strong or free.

Do you look for a strong running games for the opposition and base your LBs on that. just very curious and confused.

Some good information in previous threads here and here.With regard to the safety issue, the roles and responsibilites of a safety are changing in the league over the past couple seasons. No more are you safe in assuming that the SS is more likely to be the in-the-box player or better run stuffer. Depending on your level of interest, a decent knowledge of each team's scheme and how they use each player is a big help in knowing whether the strong or free safety is the more valuable option in any given week.

This is as good a place as any to pimp Norton's Breaking Down NFL Defenses article that we post every season in our pre-season subscriber content -- it outlines the responsibilities of each defensive position and helps to define which position is likely to be most valuable in general fantasy terms.

There are also a lot of good threads discussing the relative value of each position in the FAQ pinned above the Forum.

 

[stevegamer]

If your league is on MFL, there's a feature that allows you to see how teams are giving up points.

Things to note:

Variances in teams' stats can sometimes have an interesting underlying reason.

-The Eagles get a ton of PD, but it's not all the DB's, it's the scorers. So they get they home cooking stat bumps 8 games a year, but 8 other teams will get them once.

- Teams that play division games against teams that give up a ton of sacks, for example, might be just an okay team regarding getting to the QB, but they play turnstile OL's, so they get through a lot.

 

[Biabreakable]

With regard to the safety issue, the roles and responsibilites of a safety are changing in the league over the past couple seasons. No more are you safe in assuming that the SS is more likely to be the in-the-box player or better run stuffer. Depending on your level of interest, a decent knowledge of each team's scheme and how they use each player is a big help in knowing whether the strong or free safety is the more valuable option in any given week.

This is definitly not as cut and dry as it used to be. The main thing that has changed is the leagues enforcement of the no contact after 5 yards rule. This used to be loosely enforced and defensive backs and linebacker could get away with more contact in the grey area of 5 yards from the line of scrimage than they can now.SS used to play much nearer to the line of scrimage and more often than they do now. And teams had more clearly defined personel that filled the role of a SS run support defensive back who's coverage responsibilities would be man on man against a TE or RB in most down and distance situations. Not so much anymore as SS of this ilk are being phased out of the game if they are a liability in coverage against Wrs. Such as Adam Archulleta with the Redskins.FS used to have the role of center fielder. The last line of defense. The term free meaning that the player did not ushualy have any direct man to man responsibility of coverage on a specific player but was free to read and react to the play and provide support where it was most needed. With offenses using so many multiple formations that flood sides of the field with multiple recievers having a safety that is "free" is not often a luxury a defense can afford anymore.At the same time cornerbacks out of college have been getting bigger to meet the demand of NFL teams that have been putting more emphasis on corners that can tackle well at the expense sometimes of players who have good coverage and ball skills.When looking at the scoring for just safeties in my league right now they are ranked like this:1. Rhodes, Kerry NYJ SS2. Wilson, Adrian ARI SS 3. Hope, Chris TEN SS was FS when with Pittsburgh. 4. Hamlin, Ken SEA FS 5. Williams, Madieu CIN FS 6. Jones, Sean CLE SS 7. Phillips, Jermaine TBB SS8. Hill, Renaldo MIA FS 9. Polamalu, Troy PIT SS10.Taylor, Sean WAS FS 11.Dawkins, Brian PHI FS12.Bethea, Antoine IND SS13.Landry, Dawan BAL SS14.Williams, Roy DAL SS 15.Schweigert, Stuart OAK FS16.Wilson, Gibril NYG SS17.Manuel, Marquand GBP SS18.Atogwe, Oshiomogho STL FS 19.Chavous, Corey STL SS 20.Kaesviharn, Kevin CIN SSSo in the top 20 you do have 65% to 35% of the players coming from the SS position over the FS position. Also of note is that the majority of these players come from teams with losing records and/or poor defenses. With only a few notable exceptions. Why? Well team that have poor defenses have offensive players getting to the 2nd level more thus plays being made by the safeties. Another thing to focus on would be teams that have poor time of possesion because of poor offensive play.21. 264. Holt, Terrence DET FS 22. 276. Bullocks, Daniel DET FS playing SS because of injury to Kennedy. Lions FS always better than SS23. Lewis, Michael PHI SS24. Simpson, Ko BUF FS 25. Clark, Ryan PIT FS 26. Bullocks, Josh NOS FS27. Milloy, Lawyer ATL SS 28. Bell, Yeremiah MIA SS 29. Coleman, Erik NYJ FS 30. McCree, Marlon SDC FS31. Reed, Edward BAL FS32. Thompson, Lamont TEN FS 33. Minter, Mike CAR FS was a SS most of his career. Moved to FS because of age.34. Pool, Brodney CLE FS backup SS playing FS position.35. Smith, Dwight MIN FS 36. Knight, Sammy KCC SS 37. Grant, Deon JAC FS38. Archuleta, Adam WAS SS now benched.39. Finnegan, Cortland TEN FS played FS early in the year now moved to left cornerback.40. Whitner, Donte BUF SS 70% of these are FS.Conclushion? I would still tend to favor SS over FS with some exceptions like Madieu Williams and Sean Taylor as they do form the majority of top 20 safeties and the impact of role change has on them when moved to FS for example Ed Reed now who was the #1 Db when in the SS role with the Ravens.I do not favor safeties over cornerbacks as much as I used to however because when combined they are ranked like this:1. Barber, Ronde TBB CB 2. McGee, Terrence BUF CB 3. Williams, Darrent DEN CB 4. Rhodes, Kerry NYJ S 5. Wilson, Adrian ARI S 6. Bailey, Champ DEN CB 7. Hope, Chris TEN S 8. Hamlin, Ken SEA S 9. Marshall, Richard CAR CB 10. Woodson, Charles GBP CB 11. Mathis, Rashean JAC CB 12. Williams, Madieu CIN S 13. Jones, Sean CLE S 14. Miller, Justin NYJ CB 15. Winfield, Antoine MIN CB 16. Phillips, Jermaine TBB S 17. Hill, Renaldo MIA S 18. Hall, Deangelo ATL CB 19. 164. Polamalu, Troy PIT S 20. 175. Tillman, Charles CHI CB 55% of the top 20 defensive backs are corner backs. The safeties tend to be steadier thier production coming more from tackles each game compared to the big plays you get from corner backs. But many of these corners have very good tackle numbers as well and the big plays can often win games for you.

 

[Simris]

This makes me rethink a lot of assumptions I have had on the DB position.

Here are the top 30 from my league.

1. 45. Barber, Ronde TBB CB 105 *1

2. 68. McGee, Terrence BUF CB 96

3. 87. Rhodes, Kerry NYJ S 86

4. 91. Hope, Chris TEN S 85

5. 97. Williams, Darrent DEN CB 84 *12

6. 99. Bailey, Champ DEN CB 82 *7

7. 125. Wilson, Adrian ARI S 78

8. 131. Hamlin, Ken SEA S 76

9. 136. Miller, Justin NYJ CB 76

10. 145. Williams, Madieu CIN S 75

11. 149. Marshall, Richard CAR CB 74

12. 151. Phillips, Jermaine TBB S 74 *5

13. 164. Taylor, Sean WAS S 72

14. 165. Winfield, Antoine MIN CB 72

15. 172. Woodson, Charles GBP CB 70

16. 174. Jones, Sean CLE S 69

17. 175. Polamalu, Troy PIT S 69

18. 179. Henry, Anthony DAL CB 68 *3

19. 180. Hill, Renaldo MIA S 68 *7

20. 183. Tillman, Charles CHI CB 68

21. 193. Harris, Walt SFO CB 66

22. 196. Dawkins, Brian PHI S 65

23. 200. Schweigert, Stuart OAK S 65

24. 203. Wilson, Gibril NYG S 65

25. 206. Bethea, Antoine IND S 64

26. 210. Law, Ty KCC CB 64 *12

27. 216. Mathis, Rashean JAC CB 63

28. 218. Atogwe, Oshiomogho STL S 62

29. 221. Herndon, Kelly SEA CB 62

30. 223. Rogers, Carlos WAS CB 62

15 CB's

15 S

Looks very even to me.

I need to do further analysis.

edit- *# includes thurs games this week

 

[Jene Bramel]

This makes me rethink a lot of assumptions I have had on the DB position.

Here are the top 30 from my league.

1. 45. Barber, Ronde TBB CB 105 *1

2. 68. McGee, Terrence BUF CB 96

3. 87. Rhodes, Kerry NYJ S 86

4. 91. Hope, Chris TEN S 85

5. 97. Williams, Darrent DEN CB 84 *12

6. 99. Bailey, Champ DEN CB 82 *7

7. 125. Wilson, Adrian ARI S 78

8. 131. Hamlin, Ken SEA S 76

9. 136. Miller, Justin NYJ CB 76

10. 145. Williams, Madieu CIN S 75

11. 149. Marshall, Richard CAR CB 74

12. 151. Phillips, Jermaine TBB S 74 *5

13. 164. Taylor, Sean WAS S 72

14. 165. Winfield, Antoine MIN CB 72

15. 172. Woodson, Charles GBP CB 70

16. 174. Jones, Sean CLE S 69

17. 175. Polamalu, Troy PIT S 69

18. 179. Henry, Anthony DAL CB 68 *3

19. 180. Hill, Renaldo MIA S 68 *7

20. 183. Tillman, Charles CHI CB 68

21. 193. Harris, Walt SFO CB 66

22. 196. Dawkins, Brian PHI S 65

23. 200. Schweigert, Stuart OAK S 65

24. 203. Wilson, Gibril NYG S 65

25. 206. Bethea, Antoine IND S 64

26. 210. Law, Ty KCC CB 64 *12

27. 216. Mathis, Rashean JAC CB 63

28. 218. Atogwe, Oshiomogho STL S 62

29. 221. Herndon, Kelly SEA CB 62

30. 223. Rogers, Carlos WAS CB 62

15 CB's

15 S

Looks very even to me.

I need to do further analysis.

edit- *# includes thurs games this week

In standard leagues, it's often split fairly evenly. The issue becomes predicting which corners will repeat, because many of the safeties will if they stay in the same defensive scheme and position (Wilsons, Rhodes, Williams, Dawkins). Here's a post I made in early September looking at last season's top ten CBs looking to predict which would repeat and which wouldn't. Not nearly perfect to date, which either means there's something I'm missing in my evaluation, there's a fair amount of luck involved in predicting interceptions despite a reasonable understanding of skill sets, or both.

I'm not surprised at all that of the 15 corners listed here, four (Barber, McGee, Winfield, Tillman) are primarily Tampa-2 players and another three (Bailey, Williams, Law) play for teams that use a lot of Cover-2 in their coverage schemes. That's 50% of the top players from less than 20% of the league. This league must use return yards as Justin Miller barely cracks the top 50 corners in my standard leagues. In my standard leagues, six of the top twenty are T2 corners and nine of the top 20 see a lot of Cover-2 -- pretty much the same ratio.

Biabreakable made another outstanding post above. We've been pointing out many of the same things this season as the safety carnage hit epidemic levels but his statistical breakdown highlights the relevance of the shift in the NFL landscape to IDP owners very well.

 

[Simris]

This league must use return yards as Justin Miller barely cracks the top 50 corners in my standard leagues. In my standard leagues, six of the top twenty are T2 corners and nine of the top 20 see a lot of Cover-2 -- pretty much the same ratio.

Yes we do.1 pt per 35 yds.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

i'm in 3 IDP leagues and I haven't been able to figure it out as of yet. 1st year IDP'er so maybe its a learning curve.But what do you look for in starting LBs, DBs, DEs. I would imagine a weak running defense such as Indy's would be huge for a safety. But what type of safety, strong or free. Do you look for a strong running games for the opposition and base your LBs on that. just very curious and confused.

As for LBs, my are always to start with MLBs and then in a WDIS situation go against the team that is likely to run more, or throw over the middle. Just put the ball around the MLB and he'll make plays.

 

[-OZ-]

Quick rules of thumb that I use:

1. play MLBs against top running teams

2. play DEs against the Raiders (or other teams giving up sacks)

3. play Corners against inept QBs who play on bad teams

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Playing 2nd DBs that play a lot of man-to-man also works well vs. passing teams.

Think Darrent Williams vs. Champ Bailey.

They will throw to DW's side more often, and DW will either pick it, defend it, or make the tackle (if he doesn't get toasted). More chances.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Playing 2nd DBs that play a lot of man-to-man also works well vs. passing teams.Think Darrent Williams vs. Champ Bailey.They will throw to DW's side more often, and DW will either pick it, defend it, or make the tackle (if he doesn't get toasted). More chances.

This is a good point and similar to the rookie corner rule, where an untested player will get thrown at more often by most opposing quarterbacks. Jason Webster (when he was healthy, opposite D Hall) and DeMarcus Faggins (opposite D Robinson) are good examples of the man-to-man inferior second corner thinking as well. Anthony Henry sort of fits this bill, too, depending on what you think of Terence Newman. Cedric Griffin will and Richard Marshall has fit the rookie corner rule very well this year.Jeff's example of Darrent Williams is solid, although the Broncos use a lot of Cover-2 looks, even with Champ Bailey's rep as a "shutdown" man-to-man corner. Many of Williams' tackles come in run support, which increases his value even further.If you're in a standard league and looking for consistency, I still feel that the corner interested in supporting the run and physical enough to bring down bigger ballcarriers is the way to go. Unless you're able to reliably forecast interceptions, in which case send me a PM, 'cause I need the help.