IDP's Vs. Offensive Players In Dynasty Leagues (1 Viewer)

[thatguy]

I think most of us who play in IDP leagues also have offensive players on our rosters (I could be wrong).

One of the most difficult aspects of these leagues is determining the value of stud IDP's relative to offensive players. Obviously, using a value based strategy plays a part - in fact, in redraft, it is really all that matters - but in dynasty leagues I think the picture is a bit more murky.

This is also entirely dependent upon a given league's scoring system - some league scoring systems favor IDPs, some favor offensive players, some are balanced.

In any case, I believe this is good topic of discussion.

The primary reason that I believe a value-based approach is not particularly useful has to do with the relative volatility of IDP's compared to offensive players. Defensive scheme changes can make a once stud IDP more of less worthless (see Aaron Kampman). While Kampman is obviously an extreme, I think we can all agree most IDP's are far more volatile year to year (particularly DB's) than your typical offensive nucleus players. Perhaps the one exception is stud LB's, but even they can lose/gain value quickly (see DJ Williams numbers when he was moved from WLB to SLB, and then after he was moved to ILB).

I don't really have much to say on the topic. I am in the 5th year of an IDP dynasty league and I don't think we've had any major trades that involved stud IDP's for stud (or up and coming) offensive players - more typically we see IDP for IDP trades, or offensive player for offensive player trades, or IDP/offensive player for draft pick trades. In trades that do involve both, the IDP player is usually not a nucleus player but rather a simple throw-in.

I'd like to hear others' thoughts on the issue, and in particular examples of trades that have gone down in your leagues of this type, success/failure stories, etc.

 

[Pick]

I think in general most owners over-value offensive players and under-value IDPs. In drafts there are guys reaching for WRs and RBs while top IDP talent is still on the board. But it does seem like it's easier to reload IDPs versus offensive positions. Trading offense for offense or defense for defense isn't too big a deal. But I've concluded that I'll have to overpay if I want to give defense for offense. But on the flip side I can get a lot of IDP bang for my buck when trading away offensive talent.

 

[thatguy]

Thanks for the input Pick. Can you give some examples of trades you've made along with league settings?

 

[Zoomanji]

Also agree with what Pick said. Trades usually end up as O for O or D for D. A couple years ago I traded Beason for B. Jacobs straight up. I had depth at LB and little at RB. Was a steal for me but straight D for O trades are rare in all my leagues (5)

All my leagues are tackle-heavy (I hate that term, how about "non-big play" leagues)

Some from this season (keep in mind there are contracts as well)

Housh for Andra Davis

Jason Williams and FA$ for Maroney (pre-season)

More off-season deals in 09

C. benson & Fasano for T. Howard

T. Davis for a 1st

 

[Birdie048]

While I agree with your assesment that most leagues that use IDP are Offense for Offense, but IDP might be added to "balance" deals where undervalued players can be had cheap. I don't think it falls on points alone to equate their value. There needs to be some "conversion" factor to balance their values. I don't know what.... maybe 80-85% of IDP = Offense value?

Example:

B Cushing last year scored 240 pts in our dynasty league (start 4 LB). He was #3 LB (#50 Overall).

All my efforts to acquire a WR in the same value range (S Holmes, Colston or Ocho) are unsuccessful.

But at 80% Cushing's value, I could target M Sims-Walker or R Meachem.

To me, that is underselling his value.

So where do you value a Stud LB when they score points each week equal to a Stud RB or WR?

ETA: Maybe the high turnover at the elite LB level might be key to the percieved lower IDP value. Some LB's like Ray Lewis have been elite for years now. Cushing is new and has only 1 yr of experience. Plus he could change LB position or DC, yet for an offensive player to move from RB to FB would be big (Balt McClain).

10 Team 2 QB IDP Dynasty PPR

Some of the IDP Trades from 2009

Jared Allen for 1st Round 2010 (1.06)

Ronnie Brown for Harry Douglas & DJ Williams + 2nd (2.05?)

J Laurinaitis for Andre Caldwell & J Vilma, Jonathan

B Flowers for a 3rd (3.08)

B Merriweather for a 4th (4.01)

 

[pretender]

 

[comfortably numb]

I enjoy making trades of O for D.

Seems you can move mid range O for top tier D

Here are some trades I made involving IDP

All 16 team Dynasty leagues

.5/1.0/1.5 PPR

DE gets 2.5 for a Sack, and 2 for a tackle 1 for an assist

LB gets 6.0 for a Sack and 1.5 for a tackle and .75 for an assist

5 for INT 3 for FF and FR

In the offseason

I give

Brandon Marshall

for

SSmith (Car) and Puz

I give

Felix

1.4

1.14

1.16

Odom

Starks

for

Witten

Beason

RClark

(2) 5th's

I give

Percy Harvin

for

Rudd & 2.13

In season....

I give

RRice

for

Felix and Mario

(that stung a bit)

I give

ERoyal

for

Peppers

I give

ERoyal

Jeanty

Crumpler

for

Osi

Ray Lewis

I gave

DJ Williams

for

SMoss

I gave

YBell

for

Doucet & a 5th

Some deals where made with 2010 in mind, others with a championship run in mind, others were position need and other were moving players i no longer believed in.

 

[Crippler]

I think each league is so different. In my home league we start 11 O guys and 11 D guys with 16 teams, so trading even mediocre O is tough to do for D. The highest a D player has ever been drafted is 1.10. Last year Curry went 1.13 while a guy like McCoy dropped to the 1.16. McCoy value >>>> Curry now. So not going to happen very often in this league where O gets traded for D. But D usually goes 2nd round and lots of O players get traded for D that way

 

[Pick]

Thanks for the input Pick. Can you give some examples of trades you've made along with league settings?

I was going to but didn't think it would work well for this thread. My league is pretty complicated. 53-man rosters with d-squads. Contracts with years and bonuses. We even have formulas where players can opt out and demand renegotiation. Start various offense and defensive sets. We try to mirror the NFL. Scoring is probably similar to most leagues and favors offense a bit.I pulled a trade before last season where I gave Mayo/Ruud for DeAngelo Williams.Most recent trade was Andrus, Shane FA PK for Porter, Joey MIA LB and some late round picks.Another one was Austin, Miles DAL WRHarris, Napoleon FA LBforYear 2010 Round 1 Draft PickYear 2010 Round 2 Draft Pick Year 2010 Round 4 Draft Pick Year 2010 Round 6 Draft Pick

 

[cr8f]

Also agree with what Pick said. Trades usually end up as O for O or D for D. A couple years ago I traded Beason for B. Jacobs straight up. I had depth at LB and little at RB. Was a steal for me but straight D for O trades are rare in all my leagues (5)All my leagues are tackle-heavy (I hate that term, how about "non-big play" leagues)Some from this season (keep in mind there are contracts as well)Housh for Andra DavisJason Williams and FA$ for Maroney (pre-season)More off-season deals in 09C. benson & Fasano for T. HowardT. Davis for a 1st

Why bother when you can get Aaron Rodgers and Miles Austin for a few dollars?

 

[coolnerd]

 

[Zoomanji]

Also agree with what Pick said. Trades usually end up as O for O or D for D. A couple years ago I traded Beason for B. Jacobs straight up. I had depth at LB and little at RB. Was a steal for me but straight D for O trades are rare in all my leagues (5)All my leagues are tackle-heavy (I hate that term, how about "non-big play" leagues)Some from this season (keep in mind there are contracts as well)Housh for Andra DavisJason Williams and FA$ for Maroney (pre-season)More off-season deals in 09C. benson & Fasano for T. HowardT. Davis for a 1st

Why bother when you can get Aaron Rodgers and Miles Austin for a few dollars?

judging by the FA run the other night there are some owners asleep at the wheel

 

[Grimace59]

Allot of my deals this year invloved IDP players as throw ins.

Had two this last offseason, in nonPPR, Sacks = 6pts

Deal #1

Gave: ADP, Big Ben, Barrett Ruud LB, Josh Morgan, Derrick Harvey DE

Got: CJ3, Ray Rice, Culter, Marshall, Pozluzny LB

Deal #2

Gave: Chester Taylor, Larry Johnson D'qwell Jackson LB 3rd rounder

Got: Desean Jackson, Trent Cole DE 2nd Rounder

Usually IDPs are throw ins for a deal, but LB's are looked at almost like Line Backers, and top DE are almost impossible to trade for.

 

[Dave Larkin]

I'm participating in my first IDP Dynasty league starting in 2010, so this thread is pretty interesting. It's good to get opinions from experienced players here. My strategy going into my draft, which incidentally is the beginning of March, is to take the BPA according to my rankings. If an IDP will score more points than an offensive player, so be it. However, there is an argument to be made for drafting offensive players before IDPs. The reason is that it is more valuable to have offensive players for the purposes of trades. If you're not a wheeling and dealing type of person, that won't be as important.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

I'm participating in my first IDP Dynasty league starting in 2010, so this thread is pretty interesting. It's good to get opinions from experienced players here. My strategy going into my draft, which incidentally is the beginning of March, is to take the BPA according to my rankings. If an IDP will score more points than an offensive player, so be it. However, there is an argument to be made for drafting offensive players before IDPs. The reason is that it is more valuable to have offensive players for the purposes of trades. If you're not a wheeling and dealing type of person, that won't be as important.

Briefly, since I'm in a hurry: in most leagues with balanced scoring, DBs are usually easy to find. In leagues that separate positions (DT and DE for example), DTs are the least valuable. The main IDP positions are DE and LB. I think you can wait longer on DBs and use the early and mid round picks on DE, LB, and offense. 4-3 DEs are getting very hard to find and I think it is a must to find a younger stud DE, top 5 if possible, and maybe even 2 of them. That is a generic opinion based on balanced scoring and starting a full IDP lineup of 11 starters.

 

[Pick]

I'm participating in my first IDP Dynasty league starting in 2010, so this thread is pretty interesting. It's good to get opinions from experienced players here. My strategy going into my draft, which incidentally is the beginning of March, is to take the BPA according to my rankings. If an IDP will score more points than an offensive player, so be it. However, there is an argument to be made for drafting offensive players before IDPs. The reason is that it is more valuable to have offensive players for the purposes of trades. If you're not a wheeling and dealing type of person, that won't be as important.

Briefly, since I'm in a hurry: in most leagues with balanced scoring, DBs are usually easy to find. In leagues that separate positions (DT and DE for example), DTs are the least valuable. The main IDP positions are DE and LB. I think you can wait longer on DBs and use the early and mid round picks on DE, LB, and offense. 4-3 DEs are getting very hard to find and I think it is a must to find a younger stud DE, top 5 if possible, and maybe even 2 of them. That is a generic opinion based on balanced scoring and starting a full IDP lineup of 11 starters.

I'd roll with that in general.

 

[Pick]

If an IDP will score more points than an offensive player, so be it.

I think you have to consider the ability to reload at a position. Say you've got an LB ranked above a RB by several slots. But RBs are much harder to come by than LBs. So even if an LB is projected to outperform an RB (and in fact does outperform that RB), you can still make a case for taking the RB first.So my point is you shouldn't go solely off projected scoring.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

If an IDP will score more points than an offensive player, so be it.

I think you have to consider the ability to reload at a position. Say you've got an LB ranked above a RB by several slots. But RBs are much harder to come by than LBs. So even if an LB is projected to outperform an RB (and in fact does outperform that RB), you can still make a case for taking the RB first.So my point is you shouldn't go solely off projected scoring.

I agree with this. Scoring within a certain position matters a lot more (aka compare RBs to RBs and LBs to LBs).

 

[Pick]

I approach the draft a little differently though. I find IDP talent seems to slip while most owners reach for offense. I'm speaking mostly of the first 40ish players drafted. There are the "sure thing" offensive guys early in the first but after that I will probably go for top-shelf IDPs versus second- and third-tier RBs and WRs. Unless you feel pretty good about an offensive prospect, take the sure thing IDP.

I've looked at the data a little bit and it seems top-shelf IDPs are much less likely to bust versus 2nd-and 3rd-tier WRs and RBs.

So I'll draft the player I know is going to produce for me versus trying to find the hidden gem.

So comparing straight across (for trades or free agency) I'll usually value the offensive player more. But when it comes to the draft I'm definitely eye-balling the IDPs because of value.

(Don't know if any of this made sense)

 

[thatguy]

A lot of great input so far. Thanks fellas.

30 man rosters, 3 man taxi squads, rosters trimmed to 20 prior to FA.

Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, DL, DL, LB, LB, DB, DB, DL/LB/DB, DL/LB, DB

Offensive scoring standard, non- PPR. IDP scoring: sacks 3, tackles 1, assists 0.5, PDs 1, INTs 4, FF/FR 2. safety/blocked kick 5, TD 6

I am considering the following deal:

I give H. Nicks WR and I receive J. Beason LB

I am stacked at WR (Fitz, Marshall, Jennings, Boldin, Harvin, S. Rice, Nicks, Schillens, Jacoby Jones) so Nicks won't be missed. I'm still hesitant though. Our scoring system and lineup requirements tend to favor offensive players. However, stud LB's and DL's are the two IDP breeds that can be real difference makers.

My current LB's are Willis, Ryans, Briggs, Fletcher, Tulloch - among the league's best, if not the best. Adding Beason to that group would put it over the top.

On an unrelated note:

I agree with the above sentiment that DB's are very easily replaceable. I would never spend a high draft pick, nor would I give up much if anything, to acquire a "top tier" DB. I'm not even sure there is such a thing as a "top tier" DB. Too much turnover at the position and in any given year not a lot of points separate the best from the rest.

 

[Birdie048]

A lot of great input so far. Thanks fellas.

30 man rosters, 3 man taxi squads, rosters trimmed to 20 prior to FA.

Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, K, DL, DL, LB, LB, DB, DB, DL/LB/DB, DL/LB, DB

I am considering the following deal:

I give H. Nicks WR and I receive J. Beason LB

That type of deal is fair IMO, but it is uncommon to see something like that. Most FF'ers don't value stud LB as valuable as top Offense players. I am a believer in Nicks & Beason is a stud. IMO, Beason will outscore Nicks. For Example: I was recently offered SF WR M Crabtree & Pitt WR M Wallace for TB LB B Ruud, Buf LB P Poz, 1.08 & 1.10 picks.

That type of mentality really down plays the stud LB's.

How do you overcome this type of thinking to make a deal?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Touched on this today in a series of blog posts I'm writing for DynastyGuys.com.

I think you have to get a very good baseline sense of true relative value across all positions first. For example, based on historical scoring, a mid-level LB1 has approximately the same value as X WR tier, Y RB tier, Z DL tier, and so on. With that framework, you're able to exploit the weaknesses and biases of your leaguemates, many of whom will grossly overvalue offensive potential and rookie draft picks.

You can't always turn your back on the perceived value of an offensive asset. The replacement cost of a high upside WR is set. But if the goal is to field the best lineup possible at every position, you should sometimes be willing to "overpay" (by perception) with offensive talent for defensive talent that actually holds more relative value.

 

[thatguy]

A guy in our league just did a writeup ranking the top 548 fantasy players from this past season on a value over replacement scale. There were some pretty interesting findings, but nothing that really surprised me. I had done a similar writeup about the midpoint of the season in which I broke down type players into tiers from most to least valuable - one of my conclusions was that by season's end, Jared Allen and Patrick Willis would as valuable, if not more valuable, than Peyton Manning - based on my buddy's writeup, this proved true. Mind you, I (and the guy who did the recent writeup) were working based a single season's worth of work, without taking into account the relative volatility from year to year of players at different positions (hence, a stud DB is not very likely to carry his value over from one year to the next whereas a stud QB is quite likely to do so).

We both basically came to the following conclusions (of course these are based on our scoring system/lineup requirements which I believe I posted earlier):

Tier 1a: This is reserved for players who have incredible seasons - CJ3 '10, Brady '07, Manning '04, Moss '07, LT '06, etc. Usually there will be 1, maybe 2 guys in a given season who separate themselves from the pack enough to warrant placement in this elite tier. Some seasons may see no player worthy of placement in this tier

Tier 1b: stud RB's will always be the top dogs (occasionally a QB/WR will find his way into this tier)

Tier 2: stud WR's and tier 2 RB's (with the occasional QB - Rodgers from this season)

Tier 3: tier 2 WR's, tier 2/3 RB's, stud QB's, stud TE's, stud LB's, and stud DL's (typically only 1 or 2 DL's make this group in any given year, few make it regularly, Allen being perhaps the lone exception)

These top 3 tiers comprise about the top 40 players, all being at least 43 points above replacement level.

Once you get past these top 3 tiers, it's all over the board and is comprised mostly of role players, though keep in mind having solid role players is usually the difference between a good team and a great team.

What I found interesting is that Willis this past season was more valuable than all but one QB (Rodgers) with Brees just 4 value points behind him, and the 19th most valuable player overall. Manning was actually 20 value points behind Willis, or ~1.5 PPG. Jared Allen was the lone DL to find himself in the third tier this season and ended up more valuable than Peyton by about 6 value points.

What this tells me is that if you can find a young stud LB in a great situation who has proven he will put up top numbers year after year, you should be willing to pay a lot to acquire him, and even then, it's likely you'll get him well below his real value given most owners propensity to overvalue offensive players. Right now, though, the only LB's that I'm confident belong in that category are Willis and Beason. The same goes for stud DLs, although the only DL who has consistently been up there is Allen. I'd be a bit wary paying a large amount for him right now given his relative underwhelming second half of the season, but you may still be able to get him for less than his true value.

There were a good deal of other interesting things that jumped out at me, but I'll stop there for now. I may offer some more insight when I get the time and after I've looked over the list a bit more.

In any case, I was already leaning toward making the trade I alluded to above, but I think this may be just the push I need to finally pull the trigger. If Nicks becomes a perennial stud WR, I will likely have overpaid long term, but even if he simply develops into a solid and consistent tier 2 WR, the trade will be about equal. This season, Beason was the 33rd most valuable player, surrounded by the likes of Colston, 85 and S. Rice. The fact that even if Nicks pans out (as I expect him to), he may not start for me for several more years, and the opportunity cost of trading a bench player for an instant difference maker would more than make up for any small discrepancies in value down the road.

 

[Cassius]

FWIW, did this deal recently in a 16 team dynasty league:

Gave:

Shonn Greene, RB NYJ

26th overall pick

Got:

J. Laurinatis, LB STL

6th overall pick

Our league format is a little weird - you can start between 1-2 RB's with the different "formations" and including IDP flex positions we can start up to 4 LB's...so RB's are a little less valuable.