If Foles is QB 7 (1 Viewer)

[Gawain]

Doesn't there have to be a top-30 WR on Philly?

Foles currently sits at QB7 in the FBG redraft rankings, but all of his WRs are outside of the top 30 and Ertz resides outside the top 12 TE.

I don't have much of a leaning between Maclin or Cooper, but I cannot imagine they'd both finish as WR 3 types if Foles is as good as projected.

Which is the likely outcome, Foles is more like QB 15, or one of Cooper/Maclin (Mathews?) is going to be a borderline WR 1?

 

[cstu]

Maclin will be a borderline WR1.

 

[ldizzle]

Maclin will be a borderline WR1.

at minimum a wr2 imo. All depends on his health of course. Foles will also be passing to his rbs...

 

[Gawain]

Maclin will be a borderline WR1.

at minimum a wr2 imo. All depends on his health of course. Foles will also be passing to his rbs...

I probably discounted Sproles too much, but you have to figure 4,000 and 30 is what it takes in this day and age to make top-7.

Can we see Sproles+McCoy+Ertz combining for 2K and 15 scores?

 

[Bob Barker]

I think that if maclin is healthy he is gonna have a nice year, id say he'll finish somewhere between WR10-WR20 for fantasy

 

[ShaHBucks]

Change the names I guess http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=684751&page=12#entry16623442

 

[Penguin]

McCoy & Sproles should account for around 1000/5 of those numbers. Celek & Ertz combined for over 1000/10 last year. He'd need another 2400/10 from the WR crew and misc. RB/FB/TE's to finish top 7'ish.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a good point. Conversely, I've pondered, if Marshall and Jeffery are WR6 and WR7, shouldn't Cutler be top 10? Personally, not comfortable with either of those two WRs at that price, so I get the Cutler ranking, but still wonder how people who are buying Marshall/Jeffery rationalize it.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

You could look at the team projections to see how Dodds breaks it down between positions and specific players......might give you a better idea how those players slip into the rankings where they do.

 

[fightingillini]

This is a good point. Conversely, I've pondered, if Marshall and Jeffery are WR6 and WR7, shouldn't Cutler be top 10? Personally, not comfortable with either of those two WRs at that price, so I get the Cutler ranking, but still wonder how people who are buying Marshall/Jeffery rationalize it.

One of Marshall and Jeffery will be a bust at their ADPs.....I would bet on it being Jeffery, since Marshall has a longer track record of elite production and playing with Cutler.

But I wouldn't be suprised if Cutler ended up a top 10 QB this year, if he can remain upright for 16 games.

 

[fightingillini]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

 

[Khy]

This is a good point. Conversely, I've pondered, if Marshall and Jeffery are WR6 and WR7, shouldn't Cutler be top 10? Personally, not comfortable with either of those two WRs at that price, so I get the Cutler ranking, but still wonder how people who are buying Marshall/Jeffery rationalize it.

2013 - Brandon Marshall - 100 Receptions, 1295 yards, 13 YPR, 12 TDs

2013 - Alshon Jeffery - 89 Receptions, 1421 yards, 16 YPR, 7 TDs

2013 - Matt Forte - 74 Receptions, 594 yards, 8.0 YPR, 3 TDs

2013 - Martellus Bennett - 65 Receptions, 759 yards, 5 TDs

Okay... so totals to 328, 4069 yards, 27 TDs

I mean... that's not "THAT" crazy of an observation, even taking into account the other scraps along the way. Cutler was on pace for about 3812 yards and about 27.63 TDs last season. Which is almost exactly the same. Granted... A LOT of Marshall and Jeffery's production came under McCown. I think the main thing we'll see drop isn't so much the receptions but the yardage. It's much more likely that Jeffery falls back to more average YPR of say 13. And probably about 85 receptions. So say 85/1105/7 instead of his 89/1421/7 line he posted last season. From there everything else lines up as Cutler for a borderline QB1.

 

[Khy]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

I would tend to agree about not trusting Maclin except for the fact that he'll be almost 1.5 years removed from his ACL surgery by the time the preseason even rolls around. So I'm really not that worried about it.

I can definitely see Maclin posting a line of 80/1080/10 this season

 

[Banger]

I think people are overlooking Cooper.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Doesn't there have to be a top-30 WR on Philly?

Foles currently sits at QB7 in the FBG redraft rankings, but all of his WRs are outside of the top 30 and Ertz resides outside the top 12 TE.

I don't have much of a leaning between Maclin or Cooper, but I cannot imagine they'd both finish as WR 3 types if Foles is as good as projected.

Which is the likely outcome, Foles is more like QB 15, or one of Cooper/Maclin (Mathews?) is going to be a borderline WR 1?

The bolded is more likely, but the thing is rankings have to account for risk - and both WR have some risk, in addition to injury and inexperience, picking the right one out of the two is a risk.

In addition the team spreads the ball out and has a lot of potential targets in Ertz, Celek, Sproles, McCoy, Matthews and more minor parts. Its certainly possibel Foles thrives without one go to guy.

 

[Khy]

Doesn't there have to be a top-30 WR on Philly?

Foles currently sits at QB7 in the FBG redraft rankings, but all of his WRs are outside of the top 30 and Ertz resides outside the top 12 TE.

I don't have much of a leaning between Maclin or Cooper, but I cannot imagine they'd both finish as WR 3 types if Foles is as good as projected.

Which is the likely outcome, Foles is more like QB 15, or one of Cooper/Maclin (Mathews?) is going to be a borderline WR 1?

The bolded is more likely, but the thing is rankings have to account for risk - and both WR have some risk, in addition to injury and inexperience, picking the right one out of the two is a risk.

In addition the team spreads the ball out and has a lot of potential targets in Ertz, Celek, Sproles, McCoy, Matthews and more minor parts. Its certainly possibel Foles thrives without one go to guy.

This is certainly true... it's very possible the top receiver on the team has something like a line of 70/900/7 and the bottom full time receiving option is sitting in around 60/780/4. Short of the obvious with Jackson, the ball was spread around a lot last season. We could just be looking at a situation where all of these guys are WR3 w/ WR1 upside if Foles really dials it in on someone from Ertz, Maclin, Cooper, Matthews, Celek

 

[Anarchy99]

Last year's Bears already had their scenario play out. Cutler ranked 21st in fantasy ppg with Marshall and Jeffery both ranked in the Top 10. The Eagles one is harder to comprehend. Jackson ranked 10th and Cooper 25th in ppg last year, so it would be hard to see a scenario where they no Top 30 WRs with Foles ranked 7th. He ranked 3rd in fantasy ppg when he played last year.

 

[Sweet Love]

This is a good point. Conversely, I've pondered, if Marshall and Jeffery are WR6 and WR7, shouldn't Cutler be top 10? Personally, not comfortable with either of those two WRs at that price, so I get the Cutler ranking, but still wonder how people who are buying Marshall/Jeffery rationalize it.

One of Marshall and Jeffery will be a bust at their ADPs.....I would bet on it being Jeffery, since Marshall has a longer track record of elite production and playing with Cutler.

But I wouldn't be suprised if Cutler ended up a top 10 QB this year, if he can remain upright for 16 games.

Exactly, and conversely, if Foles is a top 7 QB, one of Maclin, Cooper, and/or Matthews would need to finish in the top 30 unless you are trotting Larry Centers, Gronk and Jimmy Graham out there at the same time. The reason why people have not been "overdrafting" on one of the three receivers is because we are not 100% sure who will be the one the exceed their ADP (personally, I think all of them can). But, as easily as Maclin could be a top 15 WR, you could have the three each finish in the top 28-33 range.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a good point. Conversely, I've pondered, if Marshall and Jeffery are WR6 and WR7, shouldn't Cutler be top 10? Personally, not comfortable with either of those two WRs at that price, so I get the Cutler ranking, but still wonder how people who are buying Marshall/Jeffery rationalize it.

2013 - Brandon Marshall - 100 Receptions, 1295 yards, 13 YPR, 12 TDs

2013 - Alshon Jeffery - 89 Receptions, 1421 yards, 16 YPR, 7 TDs

2013 - Matt Forte - 74 Receptions, 594 yards, 8.0 YPR, 3 TDs

2013 - Martellus Bennett - 65 Receptions, 759 yards, 5 TDs

Okay... so totals to 328, 4069 yards, 27 TDs

I mean... that's not "THAT" crazy of an observation, even taking into account the other scraps along the way. Cutler was on pace for about 3812 yards and about 27.63 TDs last season. Which is almost exactly the same. Granted... A LOT of Marshall and Jeffery's production came under McCown. I think the main thing we'll see drop isn't so much the receptions but the yardage. It's much more likely that Jeffery falls back to more average YPR of say 13. And probably about 85 receptions. So say 85/1105/7 instead of his 89/1421/7 line he posted last season. From there everything else lines up as Cutler for a borderline QB1.

Well, there are more than 4 players catching passes, so if people expect all those player to repeat then we are talking about huge numbers for Cutler.

Chicago as a team finished 4th in quarterback fantasy points last year according to the data dominator.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Last year's Bears already had their scenario play out. Cutler ranked 21st in fantasy ppg with Marshall and Jeffery both ranked in the Top 10. The Eagles one is harder to comprehend. Jackson ranked 10th and Cooper 25th in ppg last year, so it would be hard to see a scenario where they no Top 30 WRs with Foles ranked 7th. He ranked 3rd in fantasy ppg when he played last year.

Odds are that the Eagles will have a WR finishing in the top 30 if Foles finishes in the top 10 - it would be extremely difficult for that not to happen. However, like I said rankings are different than projections because they have to account for risk.

It's just that there's no clear cut option on the Eagles right now - and as Sweet Love says above, its possible that Maclin finishes 26 and Cooper finishes at 29 - but that doesn't mean that's where they necessarily need to be ranked if the one doing the ranking doesnt see much more upside or a clear cut option between Maclin and Cooper or even Matthews.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Agreed with above. Just too many options to project a guy at top 10, but many of them have that potential.

In addition:

Maclin

Cooper

Mathews

Ertz

All of them could approach 1000 yards without crossing.

Then

McCoy

Sproles

Celek

Could all be somewhere around 500

That adds up to something approaching 5,500 yards which is past the record manning just set.

I'm not saying that WILL happen, but something like it or close to it could happen which means there is a lot of room for Foles to put up a ton of yards and still not produce a single elite receiver season. Even if we put the top guys at 800 yards and bottom guys at 400 yards, we are still talking about 4,400 yards which is Stafford/Dalton/Rivers territory from last year.

 

[ebsteelers]

Josh Huff the oregon product will surprise

 

[Tau837]

Last year's Bears already had their scenario play out. Cutler ranked 21st in fantasy ppg with Marshall and Jeffery both ranked in the Top 10. The Eagles one is harder to comprehend. Jackson ranked 10th and Cooper 25th in ppg last year, so it would be hard to see a scenario where they no Top 30 WRs with Foles ranked 7th. He ranked 3rd in fantasy ppg when he played last year.

It could easily happen. The RBs and TEs could combine for 2K receiving yards, leaving the WRs (all of them, not just the top 2) to divide the rest. There could easily be no WR with 1K receiving yards. In fact, that seems likely.

 

[Freelove]

I think the rankings are more indicative of the uncertainty of how the numbers are going to break down with so many viable receiving targets than anything else.

 

[Anarchy99]

Agreed with above. Just too many options to project a guy at top 10, but many of them have that potential.

In addition:

Maclin

Cooper

Mathews

Ertz

All of them could approach 1000 yards without crossing.

Then

McCoy

Sproles

Celek

Could all be somewhere around 500

That adds up to something approaching 5,500 yards which is past the record manning just set.

I'm not saying that WILL happen, but something like it or close to it could happen which means there is a lot of room for Foles to put up a ton of yards and still not produce a single elite receiver season. Even if we put the top guys at 800 yards and bottom guys at 400 yards, we are still talking about 4,400 yards which is Stafford/Dalton/Rivers territory from last year.

I looked up the Top 25 seasons ranked by individual passing yards (so the cut off was 4,689 passing yards). Here are the fantasy rankings for the Top 3 WRs on the team and the highest ranking fantasy TE . . .

13 DEN 2 8 20 311 NOS 11 44 70 211 NEP 3 43 107 112 NOS 11 21 79 113 NOS 27 47 80 184 MIA 1 7 38 1908 NOS 13 35 38 1711 DET 1 41 46 1112 DET 1 71 96 2111 NYG 13 54 65 1712 DAL 6 40 94 601 STL 8 17 46 1112 NEP 12 34 90 207 NE 1 11 49 1381 SDC 6 7 64 109 HOU 1 64 96 1786 MIA 3 4 41 812 ATL 9 10 89 304 MIN 16 19 34 880 SDC 1 11 97 110 SDC 36 78 93 210 IND 7 31 32 1591 HOU 8 14 15 X02 OAK 11 28 39 1790 HOU 4 6 14 XNone of those teams had no player not ranked as WRs or TEs. The closest was probably the 2010 Chargers, but they had Gates. Last year's Saints did not have great WR production but had Graham. (The early 90s Oilers did not use a TE . . . and the more recent Patriots used two (so psycho killer was also a highly rated TE even though I only listed 1 TE).

Overall 21 of the 25 teams had either a Top 10 WR or a Top 3 TE (some had both). I suspect that if PHI is going to rack up the passing yardage that some are considering, a player or two will emerge and have stronger seasons than is currently being projected.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

Also remember that Foles doesn't have to be anywhere near the 7th-best or 7th-most-efficient QB to finish as a top-7 FF QB. Word from the beat writers is that Chip's Eagles are going to run plays even quicker this year, and for fantasy purposes volume covers a multitude of sins. (Matt Stafford says "hi".)

Plus, I would imagine that with D-Jax gone, defenses will be stacking the box and daring Maclin, Cooper, Ertz etc. to beat them. At least early on.

One more point to consider is that, if you don't feel comfortable with Foles at QB7, okay - who are you gonna leapfrog him with? Brady's 37, and his receiving corps is even more scattershot than Foles'. Newton's is even worse. RGIII is a walking injury risk. Neither Wilson nor Kaep will throw the ball even 500 times, so unless they start channeling Randall Cunningham they're not going to be top-5 fantasy guys. I guess that leaves Romo, but give me Foles and his higher ceiling all day.

 

[Anarchy99]

Running a ton of plays is nice and all, but the bottom line is unless the extra plays involve more passes or more rushing attempts for Foles, that really doesn't help his fantasy numbers. PHI ranked 27th in the league in passing attempts. Matt Stafford says "hi" back, as one year the Lions had 740 passing attempts. That's almost 50% more than the Eagles had last year. I echoed similar sentiments in the thread discussing all the plays the Bills ran last year in the Bills breakout offense thread. If the plays are mostly runs, that really won't lead to a breakout for receivers and the QB.

 

[fightingillini]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

Also remember that Foles doesn't have to be anywhere near the 7th-best or 7th-most-efficient QB to finish as a top-7 FF QB. Word from the beat writers is that Chip's Eagles are going to run plays even quicker this year, and for fantasy purposes volume covers a multitude of sins. (Matt Stafford says "hi".)

Plus, I would imagine that with D-Jax gone, defenses will be stacking the box and daring Maclin, Cooper, Ertz etc. to beat them. At least early on.

One more point to consider is that, if you don't feel comfortable with Foles at QB7, okay - who are you gonna leapfrog him with? Brady's 37, and his receiving corps is even more scattershot than Foles'. Newton's is even worse. RGIII is a walking injury risk. Neither Wilson nor Kaep will throw the ball even 500 times, so unless they start channeling Randall Cunningham they're not going to be top-5 fantasy guys. I guess that leaves Romo, but give me Foles and his higher ceiling all day.

My view of QBs is that there are 3 elite ones (Peyton, Brees, Rodgers), and 2 very good ones that will chuck the ball up all day (Stafford, Luck). Then there is a big tier of solid QBs. This tier has 8 QBs, with Foles being one of them. So I think he's overvalued becuase I can draft a similar guy 1-2 rounds later. So it's somewhat irrelevant to who I have ahead of Foles, since unless I draft one of the top 5 QBs on my list, I will be waiting until at least 10 are off the board. I would comfortable with the top 5 + Brady, Foles, Kaepernick, Ryan, R Wilson, Cam, RGIII and Romo as my starting QB. BTW, I have Foles in the middle of this tier, so he would be QB10.

I do disagree with you somewhat that Foles has more upside than the others that you mention. Romo has put up huge numbers in the past. So has Brady and Ryan, but their prospects of having huge seasons are hinged on Gronkowski and Julio being ready at the beginning of the season. Kaepernick and RGIII don't need to throw it 500+ times to put up good numbers.....in fact with Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, a healthy Michael Crabtree and an aging Frank Gore, Kaepernick could have a monster season, even without throwing it 500 times. And we all know Cam can post double digit TDs rushing (but he is a big risk).

Foles does possess nice upside, but his receiving corps is a big concern, and the concern is big enough to pass on him at QB7 and take another QB on my top 13 list a round or two later.

 

[Rookie_Whisperer]

Maclin will be a borderline WR1.

When has Maclin ever been a WR1? After 5 years in the league, we know who Maclin is, and he's not a WR1.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

Also remember that Foles doesn't have to be anywhere near the 7th-best or 7th-most-efficient QB to finish as a top-7 FF QB. Word from the beat writers is that Chip's Eagles are going to run plays even quicker this year, and for fantasy purposes volume covers a multitude of sins. (Matt Stafford says "hi".)

Plus, I would imagine that with D-Jax gone, defenses will be stacking the box and daring Maclin, Cooper, Ertz etc. to beat them. At least early on.

One more point to consider is that, if you don't feel comfortable with Foles at QB7, okay - who are you gonna leapfrog him with? Brady's 37, and his receiving corps is even more scattershot than Foles'. Newton's is even worse. RGIII is a walking injury risk. Neither Wilson nor Kaep will throw the ball even 500 times, so unless they start channeling Randall Cunningham they're not going to be top-5 fantasy guys. I guess that leaves Romo, but give me Foles and his higher ceiling all day.

My view of QBs is that there are 3 elite ones (Peyton, Brees, Rodgers), and 2 very good ones that will chuck the ball up all day (Stafford, Luck). Then there is a big tier of solid QBs. This tier has 8 QBs, with Foles being one of them. So I think he's overvalued becuase I can draft a similar guy 1-2 rounds later. So it's somewhat irrelevant to who I have ahead of Foles, since unless I draft one of the top 5 QBs on my list, I will be waiting until at least 10 are off the board. I would comfortable with the top 5 + Brady, Foles, Kaepernick, Ryan, R Wilson, Cam, RGIII and Romo as my starting QB. BTW, I have Foles in the middle of this tier, so he would be QB10.

I do disagree with you somewhat that Foles has more upside than the others that you mention. Romo has put up huge numbers in the past. So has Brady and Ryan, but their prospects of having huge seasons are hinged on Gronkowski and Julio being ready at the beginning of the season. Kaepernick and RGIII don't need to throw it 500+ times to put up good numbers.....in fact with Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, a healthy Michael Crabtree and an aging Frank Gore, Kaepernick could have a monster season, even without throwing it 500 times. And we all know Cam can post double digit TDs rushing (but he is a big risk).

Foles does possess nice upside, but his receiving corps is a big concern, and the concern is big enough to pass on him at QB7 and take another QB on my top 13 list a round or two later.

Romo has never put up more than about 24 PPG in my system (although he is very consistent in terms of PPG). Ryan did 26 last year, but has generally been under 23. Kaep did 21 and 16. Wilson did 22 twice. Brady has been there in the 30 range before, but last year was obviously not near that.

Foles put up 30 PPG (starting games) AS A ROOKIE.

I'd say that's where the excitement comes from. That's a free TD or more per game over most of the other options you mentioned if it continues, with some room to go up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

Also remember that Foles doesn't have to be anywhere near the 7th-best or 7th-most-efficient QB to finish as a top-7 FF QB. Word from the beat writers is that Chip's Eagles are going to run plays even quicker this year, and for fantasy purposes volume covers a multitude of sins. (Matt Stafford says "hi".)

Plus, I would imagine that with D-Jax gone, defenses will be stacking the box and daring Maclin, Cooper, Ertz etc. to beat them. At least early on.

One more point to consider is that, if you don't feel comfortable with Foles at QB7, okay - who are you gonna leapfrog him with? Brady's 37, and his receiving corps is even more scattershot than Foles'. Newton's is even worse. RGIII is a walking injury risk. Neither Wilson nor Kaep will throw the ball even 500 times, so unless they start channeling Randall Cunningham they're not going to be top-5 fantasy guys. I guess that leaves Romo, but give me Foles and his higher ceiling all day.

My view of QBs is that there are 3 elite ones (Peyton, Brees, Rodgers), and 2 very good ones that will chuck the ball up all day (Stafford, Luck). Then there is a big tier of solid QBs. This tier has 8 QBs, with Foles being one of them. So I think he's overvalued becuase I can draft a similar guy 1-2 rounds later. So it's somewhat irrelevant to who I have ahead of Foles, since unless I draft one of the top 5 QBs on my list, I will be waiting until at least 10 are off the board. I would comfortable with the top 5 + Brady, Foles, Kaepernick, Ryan, R Wilson, Cam, RGIII and Romo as my starting QB. BTW, I have Foles in the middle of this tier, so he would be QB10.

I do disagree with you somewhat that Foles has more upside than the others that you mention. Romo has put up huge numbers in the past. So has Brady and Ryan, but their prospects of having huge seasons are hinged on Gronkowski and Julio being ready at the beginning of the season. Kaepernick and RGIII don't need to throw it 500+ times to put up good numbers.....in fact with Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, a healthy Michael Crabtree and an aging Frank Gore, Kaepernick could have a monster season, even without throwing it 500 times. And we all know Cam can post double digit TDs rushing (but he is a big risk).

Foles does possess nice upside, but his receiving corps is a big concern, and the concern is big enough to pass on him at QB7 and take another QB on my top 13 list a round or two later.

Romo has never put up more than about 24 PPG in my system (although he is very consistent in terms of PPG). Ryan did 26 last year, but has generally been under 23. Kaep did 21 and 16. Wilson did 22 twice. Brady has been there in the 30 range before, but last year was obviously not near that.

Foles put up 30 PPG (starting games) AS A ROOKIE.

I'd say that's where the excitement comes from. That's a free TD or more per game over most of the other options you mentioned if it continues, with some room to go up.

Foles was not a rookie last season. In fact he wasn't even a first year starter. He started 6 games the season before, as a rookie.Doesn't change what you said all that much, but just pointing it out.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Personally, I think Foles is overrated at QB7. Everything went right for him last year. PHI offense is going to run through McCoy, and Foles is going to throw to McCoy and Sproles a lot, which is going to drive down his yards per attempt.

PHI is going to miss Desean Jackson big time. I don't trust Maclin, especially coming off of ACL surgery.

Also remember that Foles doesn't have to be anywhere near the 7th-best or 7th-most-efficient QB to finish as a top-7 FF QB. Word from the beat writers is that Chip's Eagles are going to run plays even quicker this year, and for fantasy purposes volume covers a multitude of sins. (Matt Stafford says "hi".)

Plus, I would imagine that with D-Jax gone, defenses will be stacking the box and daring Maclin, Cooper, Ertz etc. to beat them. At least early on.

One more point to consider is that, if you don't feel comfortable with Foles at QB7, okay - who are you gonna leapfrog him with? Brady's 37, and his receiving corps is even more scattershot than Foles'. Newton's is even worse. RGIII is a walking injury risk. Neither Wilson nor Kaep will throw the ball even 500 times, so unless they start channeling Randall Cunningham they're not going to be top-5 fantasy guys. I guess that leaves Romo, but give me Foles and his higher ceiling all day.

My view of QBs is that there are 3 elite ones (Peyton, Brees, Rodgers), and 2 very good ones that will chuck the ball up all day (Stafford, Luck). Then there is a big tier of solid QBs. This tier has 8 QBs, with Foles being one of them. So I think he's overvalued becuase I can draft a similar guy 1-2 rounds later. So it's somewhat irrelevant to who I have ahead of Foles, since unless I draft one of the top 5 QBs on my list, I will be waiting until at least 10 are off the board. I would comfortable with the top 5 + Brady, Foles, Kaepernick, Ryan, R Wilson, Cam, RGIII and Romo as my starting QB. BTW, I have Foles in the middle of this tier, so he would be QB10.

I do disagree with you somewhat that Foles has more upside than the others that you mention. Romo has put up huge numbers in the past. So has Brady and Ryan, but their prospects of having huge seasons are hinged on Gronkowski and Julio being ready at the beginning of the season. Kaepernick and RGIII don't need to throw it 500+ times to put up good numbers.....in fact with Stevie Johnson, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, a healthy Michael Crabtree and an aging Frank Gore, Kaepernick could have a monster season, even without throwing it 500 times. And we all know Cam can post double digit TDs rushing (but he is a big risk).

Foles does possess nice upside, but his receiving corps is a big concern, and the concern is big enough to pass on him at QB7 and take another QB on my top 13 list a round or two later.

Romo has never put up more than about 24 PPG in my system (although he is very consistent in terms of PPG). Ryan did 26 last year, but has generally been under 23. Kaep did 21 and 16. Wilson did 22 twice. Brady has been there in the 30 range before, but last year was obviously not near that.

Foles put up 30 PPG (starting games) AS A ROOKIE.

I'd say that's where the excitement comes from. That's a free TD or more per game over most of the other options you mentioned if it continues, with some room to go up.

Foles was not a rookie last season. In fact he wasn't even a first year starter. He started 6 games the season before, as a rookie.Doesn't change what you said all that much, but just pointing it out.

An excellent observation. I apparently have memory issues. No need to confirm with my wife.

How bout first year in the system, and still relatively early in his career and considered under-developed when he came out (at least from what I remember, which obviously isn't very good).

 

[Adam Harstad]

Doesn't there have to be a top-30 WR on Philly?

Foles currently sits at QB7 in the FBG redraft rankings, but all of his WRs are outside of the top 30 and Ertz resides outside the top 12 TE.

I don't have much of a leaning between Maclin or Cooper, but I cannot imagine they'd both finish as WR 3 types if Foles is as good as projected.

Which is the likely outcome, Foles is more like QB 15, or one of Cooper/Maclin (Mathews?) is going to be a borderline WR 1?

First, not necessarily. Cam Newton was the #3 QB last year and his best receiver (Steve Smith) ranked 42nd. Russell Wilson was QB8 and his top receiver, Golden Tate, checked in at #28. Both quarterbacks get a good amount of value from their rushing, but so does Nick Foles- he rushed for 220 yards and 3 TDs last year despite only starting 10 games. The Eagles ranked 27th in number of pass attempts. It hasn't been a high-volume passing offense.

Second, even if everyone agreed that SOME Philly receiver should be in the top 30, it doesn't matter if people don't agree which one. If I think that there's a 50% chance that Riley Cooper leads the team and finishes the season as WR20, and a 50% chance that Jeremy Maclin leads the team and finishes the season as WR20, I might not rank either player in my top 30. In fact, that's pretty much what happened- I have Cooper ranked 29th and Maclin ranked 34th. I think one of them will outperform that and the other will underperform it, but I'm not really sure which is which, so I've hedged them both.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Healthy Maclin will be one of the biggest steals this year... I might reach a little for the guy.

 

[Insein]

Ertz will be top 5 TEs this year. One Wr will break top 25. My bet would be Maclin.

 

[Khy]

Doesn't there have to be a top-30 WR on Philly?

Foles currently sits at QB7 in the FBG redraft rankings, but all of his WRs are outside of the top 30 and Ertz resides outside the top 12 TE.

I don't have much of a leaning between Maclin or Cooper, but I cannot imagine they'd both finish as WR 3 types if Foles is as good as projected.

Which is the likely outcome, Foles is more like QB 15, or one of Cooper/Maclin (Mathews?) is going to be a borderline WR 1?

First, not necessarily. Cam Newton was the #3 QB last year and his best receiver (Steve Smith) ranked 42nd. Russell Wilson was QB8 and his top receiver, Golden Tate, checked in at #28. Both quarterbacks get a good amount of value from their rushing, but so does Nick Foles- he rushed for 220 yards and 3 TDs last year despite only starting 10 games. The Eagles ranked 27th in number of pass attempts. It hasn't been a high-volume passing offense.

Second, even if everyone agreed that SOME Philly receiver should be in the top 30, it doesn't matter if people don't agree which one. If I think that there's a 50% chance that Riley Cooper leads the team and finishes the season as WR20, and a 50% chance that Jeremy Maclin leads the team and finishes the season as WR20, I might not rank either player in my top 30. In fact, that's pretty much what happened- I have Cooper ranked 29th and Maclin ranked 34th. I think one of them will outperform that and the other will underperform it, but I'm not really sure which is which, so I've hedged them both.

Couldn't have said this better myself if I tried. Thread's over boys, this hit the nail on the head.