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If full health is guaranteed, who is your #1 pick? (1 Viewer)

If full health is guaranteed, who is your #1 pick?

  • LT2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Priest

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alexander

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • P Manning

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • R Moss

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other(specify)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

jwvdcw

Footballguy
I've gotten a bushel of requests for this poll, several via text message, which is a first for me! You ask; I deliver!Scoring system: 6pts/all TDs, 1pt/30 ft rush or rec, 1pt/60 ft passingYou are guaranteed that the player will not have any injuries whatsoever during the year. You are not guaranteed anything else. Who is your pick?

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
With this rather odd scoring system my projections show Holmes as the clear #1.Of course Holmes will be on very few of my actual teams this year.

 

Captain Quinoa

Footballguy
With this rather odd scoring system my projections show Holmes as the clear #1.

Of course Holmes will be on very few of my actual teams this year.
What's odd about it?Having trouble with the ft -> yd conversions?

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
With this rather odd scoring system my projections show Holmes as the clear #1.

Of course Holmes will be on very few of my actual teams this year.
What's odd about it?Having trouble with the ft -> yd conversions?
:bag: It just dawned on me that ft = foot, multi-tasking at work here...cut me some slack.

Priest still #1, although by a narrow margin(26 ff points)

 

Me & My Uncle

Footballguy
I'd pick Priest in that case, but there is a chance that LJ takes the job outright if Priest does not perform like a star. As long as everyone else knows that he will be healthy, however, you could get LJ pretty cheap!

 

Mark Wimer

Moderator
this is such an ugly slam dunk.....

Priest
:goodposting: Vermeil, Holmes on Holmes 2005, 5/21/05

Today, again, people wonder how Holmes will come back from yet another knee injury -- the third of his college and pro career. While his medial collateral ligament sprain healed without surgery, the normally high expectations on one of the NFL's top running backs could be understandably reduced as he starts his ninth season, at the age of 32.

Such suggestions haven't made their way to Chiefs coach **** Vermeil.

Asked what he would like to see from Holmes this season, Vermeil may or may not have been joking when he answered, "Oh, about 2,100 yards and 29 touchdowns."

"He was on pace for those kind of numbers last year," Vermeil reminded reporters after watching Holmes running well for a second day Thursday at the Chiefs onfield coaching sessions.

Holmes' had a league-best 14 rushing TDs (and one receiving) and 892 rushing yards in 7 1/2 games last year. He had 215 total touches at the time of his injury, a workhorse pace that would have put him ahead of the 394 touches he had in 2003 or the 383 in his injury-abbreviated '02 campaign.

Can Holmes carry that same kind of workload in 2005? Should he? Is it time for the Chiefs to turn more to third-year youngster Larry Johnson, who had three 100-yard rushing games and one Franklin-level receiving game last year in Holmes' absence, as a means of taking some of the offensive burden off Holmes?

"I definitely don't think I'll see less (playing time)," Holmes replied Thursday when presented with that question. "Hopefully, we'll have him in some packages where we'll both be in the backfield at the same time, like I was with Ricky Williams (at the University of Texas). We could run in either direction and be aggressive with two guys."

At the same time, Holmes understands his playing career has limits, especially in the wake of yet another knee surgery. Giving Johnson more time in 2005 is something that would make sense for both players and the Chiefs in general, he acknowledged.

"I don't think I need a break, but having him in the backfield will be a positive thing for this team," Holmes said. "He was a 2,000-yard rusher in college, and he can still do that. Not only would that keep me from taking all those hits, but it would help him get ready to take over on this team.

"He's definitely the face of the future for the Chiefs. I'm excited to leave a legacy behind and leave him the torch."
 
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M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
this is such an ugly slam dunk.....

Priest
:goodposting: Vermeil, Holmes on Holmes 2005, 5/21/05

Today, again, people wonder how Holmes will come back from yet another knee injury -- the third of his college and pro career. While his medial collateral ligament sprain healed without surgery, the normally high expectations on one of the NFL's top running backs could be understandably reduced as he starts his ninth season, at the age of 32.

Such suggestions haven't made their way to Chiefs coach **** Vermeil.

Asked what he would like to see from Holmes this season, Vermeil may or may not have been joking when he answered, "Oh, about 2,100 yards and 29 touchdowns."

"He was on pace for those kind of numbers last year," Vermeil reminded reporters after watching Holmes running well for a second day Thursday at the Chiefs onfield coaching sessions.

Holmes' had a league-best 14 rushing TDs (and one receiving) and 892 rushing yards in 7 1/2 games last year. He had 215 total touches at the time of his injury, a workhorse pace that would have put him ahead of the 394 touches he had in 2003 or the 383 in his injury-abbreviated '02 campaign.

Can Holmes carry that same kind of workload in 2005? Should he? Is it time for the Chiefs to turn more to third-year youngster Larry Johnson, who had three 100-yard rushing games and one Franklin-level receiving game last year in Holmes' absence, as a means of taking some of the offensive burden off Holmes?

"I definitely don't think I'll see less (playing time)," Holmes replied Thursday when presented with that question. "Hopefully, we'll have him in some packages where we'll both be in the backfield at the same time, like I was with Ricky Williams (at the University of Texas). We could run in either direction and be aggressive with two guys."

At the same time, Holmes understands his playing career has limits, especially in the wake of yet another knee surgery. Giving Johnson more time in 2005 is something that would make sense for both players and the Chiefs in general, he acknowledged.

"I don't think I need a break, but having him in the backfield will be a positive thing for this team," Holmes said. "He was a 2,000-yard rusher in college, and he can still do that. Not only would that keep me from taking all those hits, but it would help him get ready to take over on this team.

"He's definitely the face of the future for the Chiefs. I'm excited to leave a legacy behind and leave him the torch."
Dude was the #11 scoring RB in normal league last year with 198 pts. He played in 8 full games. Avg that.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.

 
M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
You're joking, I hope. Look at the discrepency between the various positions. There's absolutely no question, if you want to base this on history.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
You're joking, I hope. Look at the discrepency between the various positions. There's absolutely no question, if you want to base this on history.
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO. So who is the #2 QB this year? Green? He has Kennison as his #1 WR! Favre? Hasselbeck(widely thought of as the #3 QB heading into last year) has only regressed and he lost one of his top WRs. Vick has continued to regress from a fantasy perspective. I love Collins, but apparently others aren't as high on him as me. I guess that Bulger is still an attractive option, but with the decline of Bruce and the rise of Jackson, I would think that would only hurt his numbers. Then lets take a look at RB. A guy like Kevan Barlow, who is pretty much a guaranteed starting RB, is lasting until the 4th round or later. And is there really any huge difference between a first round guy like McAllister(#4 RB according to FBGs latest rankings) and a 3rd round guy like Ahman Green(#19 RB according to FBGs latest rankings)???

Imo there is a ton of value at the RB positon in the 2nd-5th rounds this year. Now compare that value to the QB position where the guys normally drafted in those rounds have regressed. Therefore, I think that Manning has a legit case as the #1 overall guy.

And heres another perspective: I've seen many mocks with Manning going 4th-6th under the scoring of 4pts/passing TDs and 1pt/90 ft passing. So if we increase those significantly(which I did here), then that only makes Manning more valuable.

 

DeepOut

Footballguy
I also think it's Holmes, but Llucks is wrong on the projection. Once you factor in the conversion, it's more like 78 1/3ff points. :hophead:

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I also think it's Holmes, but Llucks is wrong on the projection. Once you factor in the conversion, it's more like 78 1/3ff points. :hophead:
:lmao: at being definitively "wrong" on a projection.
 

Lobo237

Footballguy
The biggest determining factor for me is what type of league.In a redraft it's Priest no question.In a dynasty league gotta go with LT.If you start 2 qbs I take Manning.

 
M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
You're joking, I hope. Look at the discrepency between the various positions. There's absolutely no question, if you want to base this on history.
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO. So who is the #2 QB this year? Green? He has Kennison as his #1 WR! Favre? Hasselbeck(widely thought of as the #3 QB heading into last year) has only regressed and he lost one of his top WRs. Vick has continued to regress from a fantasy perspective. I love Collins, but apparently others aren't as high on him as me. I guess that Bulger is still an attractive option, but with the decline of Bruce and the rise of Jackson, I would think that would only hurt his numbers. Then lets take a look at RB. A guy like Kevan Barlow, who is pretty much a guaranteed starting RB, is lasting until the 4th round or later. And is there really any huge difference between a first round guy like McAllister(#4 RB according to FBGs latest rankings) and a 3rd round guy like Ahman Green(#19 RB according to FBGs latest rankings)???

Imo there is a ton of value at the RB positon in the 2nd-5th rounds this year. Now compare that value to the QB position where the guys normally drafted in those rounds have regressed. Therefore, I think that Manning has a legit case as the #1 overall guy.

And heres another perspective: I've seen many mocks with Manning going 4th-6th under the scoring of 4pts/passing TDs and 1pt/90 ft passing. So if we increase those significantly(which I did here), then that only makes Manning more valuable.
Yes, that's why Manning is going well ahead of normal years, and being drafted in the first round. FIRST PICK?!?!?! That's effing hilarious. Like I've said before, the differences between the picks you'll have available are wider than you'd like. In 2003, the difference between the #17 RB and the number #24 RB was the same amount as the difference between QB#1 and JOHN KITNA! That's why you don't take a QB in round 1. Predictability and points. Every starting QB will produce within a more predictable realm. Not every starting RB will produce on that same tangent.
 
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Joe T

Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
You're joking, I hope. Look at the discrepency between the various positions. There's absolutely no question, if you want to base this on history.
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO. So who is the #2 QB this year? Green? He has Kennison as his #1 WR! Favre? Hasselbeck(widely thought of as the #3 QB heading into last year) has only regressed and he lost one of his top WRs. Vick has continued to regress from a fantasy perspective. I love Collins, but apparently others aren't as high on him as me. I guess that Bulger is still an attractive option, but with the decline of Bruce and the rise of Jackson, I would think that would only hurt his numbers. Then lets take a look at RB. A guy like Kevan Barlow, who is pretty much a guaranteed starting RB, is lasting until the 4th round or later. And is there really any huge difference between a first round guy like McAllister(#4 RB according to FBGs latest rankings) and a 3rd round guy like Ahman Green(#19 RB according to FBGs latest rankings)???

Imo there is a ton of value at the RB positon in the 2nd-5th rounds this year. Now compare that value to the QB position where the guys normally drafted in those rounds have regressed. Therefore, I think that Manning has a legit case as the #1 overall guy.

And heres another perspective: I've seen many mocks with Manning going 4th-6th under the scoring of 4pts/passing TDs and 1pt/90 ft passing. So if we increase those significantly(which I did here), then that only makes Manning more valuable.
Yes, that's why Manning is going well ahead of normal years, and being drafted in the first round. FIRST PICK?!?!?! That's effing hilarious. Like I've said before, the differences between the picks you'll have available are wider than you'd like. In 2003, the difference between the #17 RB and the number #24 RB was the same amount as the difference between QB#1 and JOHN KITNA! That's why you don't take a QB in round 1. Predictability and points. Every starting QB will produce within a more predictable realm. Not every starting RB will produce on that same tangent.
:goodposting:
 

Harty001

Footballguy
Even being 100% healthy, Priest has Larry Johnson behind him. Vermeil would be crazy to run Priest non-stop. LJ will get some carries, enough to detract from Holmes, IMHO. Alexander missed the rushing title by a yard last year. I think he'll be a s-t-u-d this year.

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
You're joking, I hope. Look at the discrepency between the various positions. There's absolutely no question, if you want to base this on history.
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO. So who is the #2 QB this year? Green? He has Kennison as his #1 WR! Favre? Hasselbeck(widely thought of as the #3 QB heading into last year) has only regressed and he lost one of his top WRs. Vick has continued to regress from a fantasy perspective. I love Collins, but apparently others aren't as high on him as me. I guess that Bulger is still an attractive option, but with the decline of Bruce and the rise of Jackson, I would think that would only hurt his numbers. Then lets take a look at RB. A guy like Kevan Barlow, who is pretty much a guaranteed starting RB, is lasting until the 4th round or later. And is there really any huge difference between a first round guy like McAllister(#4 RB according to FBGs latest rankings) and a 3rd round guy like Ahman Green(#19 RB according to FBGs latest rankings)???

Imo there is a ton of value at the RB positon in the 2nd-5th rounds this year. Now compare that value to the QB position where the guys normally drafted in those rounds have regressed. Therefore, I think that Manning has a legit case as the #1 overall guy.

And heres another perspective: I've seen many mocks with Manning going 4th-6th under the scoring of 4pts/passing TDs and 1pt/90 ft passing. So if we increase those significantly(which I did here), then that only makes Manning more valuable.
Yes, that's why Manning is going well ahead of normal years, and being drafted in the first round. FIRST PICK?!?!?! That's effing hilarious. Like I've said before, the differences between the picks you'll have available are wider than you'd like. In 2003, the difference between the #17 RB and the number #24 RB was the same amount as the difference between QB#1 and JOHN KITNA! That's why you don't take a QB in round 1. Predictability and points. Every starting QB will produce within a more predictable realm. Not every starting RB will produce on that same tangent.
I understand that was the way it was in 2003...but my entire post was aimed at showing why this was a special year in that all of the other top QBs have regressed, so Manning is more valuable, and there are a ton of great RB options available later, so the top RBs carry less value.Question for you: Do you think its ridiculous that Manning be picked #4 overall in a normal scoring league? Because I've seen a lot of "experts" take him that high. Now when you add in 6pts/add TDs and passing yards only 1/2 the scoring of rushing/rec yards, then that bumps him up even more(especially since it devalues "rushing" QBs some, which Manning is obviously not).

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
Even being 100% healthy, Priest has Larry Johnson behind him. Vermeil would be crazy to run Priest non-stop. LJ will get some carries, enough to detract from Holmes, IMHO. Alexander missed the rushing title by a yard last year. I think he'll be a s-t-u-d this year.
I agree with this. Even if Priest is 100% healthy, I still think that the coaching staff keeps his workload in check to keep him fresh. Personally I have him ranked 4th even assuming full health, and I don't even have him in my top 5 in my real rankings.
 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
I understand that was the way it was in 2003...but my entire post was aimed at showing why this was a special year in that all of the other top QBs have regressed, so Manning is more valuable, and there are a ton of great RB options available later, so the top RBs carry less value.

Question for you: Do you think its ridiculous that Manning be picked #4 overall in a normal scoring league? Because I've seen a lot of "experts" take him that high. Now when you add in 6pts/add TDs and passing yards only 1/2 the scoring of rushing/rec yards, then that bumps him up even more(especially since it devalues "rushing" QBs some, which Manning is obviously not).
If we could predict off one year, I might agree with you. But it doesn't work that way.Yes, it's ridiculous. It's not about how many points he scores. It's about how many MORE points he scores than the next 4-5 QBs. You know, relative scoring. I know you know, and you just want to take that side. Tell you what, I'll agree to this. If you could guarantee not only his health, but that he'd have an IDENTICAL season to last year, I'd say you could take him at #4.

 

eriadoc

Footballguy
Using this scoring system and last year's stats (scale them similarly), how do Priest and Manning stack up? I think Manning comes out well ahead, with 49 TDs. Sure, you can argue that you have to have a RB early, but at some level, the point differential becomes too great to ignore. Even if you put Priest at 25 TDs, Manning doubles his fantasy points.

 
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MelvinTScupper

Guest
Using this scoring system and last year's stats (scale them similarly), how do Priest and Manning stack up? I think Manning comes out well ahead, with 49 TDs. Sure, you can argue that you have to have a RB early, but at some level, the point differential becomes too great to ignore. Even if you put Priest at 25 TDs, Manning doubles his fantasy points.
So what? In his record breaking year, Manning trailed Culpepper by 3 points. It has nothing to do with total points.Is this a fishing trip?

 

Mr. Mojo

Footballguy
I'm a bit surprised that Manning doesn't have more than 3 votes to be honest with you. Keep in mind that its a point for every 60 ft of passing and its 6 pts all TDs. Personally, in a year where good RBs can still be had in the 4th round and where the 2nd and 3rd ranked QBs may be without their top WRs, I think Manning is the choice here.
Manning can't throw over 20 yard passes with any accuracy and his WRs are weak.
 
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TheFanatic

Footballguy
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO..
That's funny. In my league which has a much more standard scoring system, Culp was the highest scoring QB last year despite Manning's 49 TD's. The scoring system is 1 pt for every 20 yards passing, 1 for 10 yards rushing, 3 pts for passing TD's and 6 for rushing. For those of you looking at the 3 pts/TD as the reason Culp was #1, if you recalculate the points and award 4 per passing TD, then Culp still outscores Manning. If you make all TD's 6 then Manning outscores Culp by 3 (517-514).And considering that Culp played in quite a few games last year without Moss (sure Moss had 13 starts, but he was just trying to keep his consecutive game streak alive) and still put up 4700 yards (only 767 were to Moss) tells me that Culpepper is WAYYYY more than average and could quite possibly be the best QB in football again this year without Moss. Manning is going to come back to earth. He will regress towards the mean somewhat. That leaves the door wide open for Culp to be #1 again....

As for McNabb and TO, well, it's not written in stone that TO won't be there game 1....

 

GregR_2

Footballguy
Using this scoring system and last year's stats (scale them similarly), how do Priest and Manning stack up? I think Manning comes out well ahead, with 49 TDs. Sure, you can argue that you have to have a RB early, but at some level, the point differential becomes too great to ignore. Even if you put Priest at 25 TDs, Manning doubles his fantasy points.
First, if you are going to talk in terms of total fantasy points, it's a worthless conversation. The best kicker can score 10,000 while every other position scores in the hundreds... but if every other kicker scores 9,999 it still means the best kicker doesn't provide much value to your team even though he outscores other players in total points.When I prorate both Manning and Priest for games missed, in my league's scoring system which uses these yardages and TD points, but has negative INT points which help Manning since they hurt other QBs more than they hurt him... the two are dead even, with a value of 232 to 236. They are within 4 FP of value compared to each other. Take away the INT penalties which help Manning and he trails Priest by about 10 FP of value. That's far from coming out well ahead.

When you add in the scarcity of running backs, and the fact you can use the QBBC approach to use late picks on 2-3 QBs who combined can get you QB5 or 6 numbers, Priest is the no-brainer pick here. LT is the only other guy who'd get any consideration.

 
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jwvdcw

Footballguy
No, I'm not joking. Manning is far and away the best QB this year imo. The previous #2(Culpepper) is nothing better than average imho without Moss and the previous #3(McNabb) is a great NFL QB but only an average FF QB without TO..
That's funny. In my league which has a much more standard scoring system, Culp was the highest scoring QB last year despite Manning's 49 TD's. The scoring system is 1 pt for every 20 yards passing, 1 for 10 yards rushing, 3 pts for passing TD's and 6 for rushing. For those of you looking at the 3 pts/TD as the reason Culp was #1, if you recalculate the points and award 4 per passing TD, then Culp still outscores Manning. If you make all TD's 6 then Manning outscores Culp by 3 (517-514).And considering that Culp played in quite a few games last year without Moss (sure Moss had 13 starts, but he was just trying to keep his consecutive game streak alive) and still put up 4700 yards (only 767 were to Moss) tells me that Culpepper is WAYYYY more than average and could quite possibly be the best QB in football again this year without Moss. Manning is going to come back to earth. He will regress towards the mean somewhat. That leaves the door wide open for Culp to be #1 again....

As for McNabb and TO, well, it's not written in stone that TO won't be there game 1....
1. I won't restart the whole Culpepper/Moss/Collins thing here...I think I've made my views clear on that, and there are plenty of other threads. I will say one thing regarding your thought that Culpepper might be the #1 QB this year: Not only are they losing Moss, but they are revamping their entire scheme to try to be a defensive oriented/ball control team- I don't think Culpepper will have the opportunity to put up #1 QB numbers no matter how well he plays in that system.2. Whichever scoring system you like best- I guess thats your choice. But I just can't see why people would ever have passing TDs at 3 pts. Personally, I'm starting a league this year that has RUSHING TDs at 4 pts and all other TDs at 6pts. Why? Because QBs should be valued more(or at the very least equally) to RBs to reflect the NFL appropriately imo. Even with the TDs being equal, RBs seem to be valued higher(see this poll's results for proof), so why would you want to make RBs even more valuable? Just doesn't make sense to me....but like I said, whatever floats your boat.

3. I've already showed many times in those other threads how Culpepper was amazing the first 5 weeks with Moss, then average without Moss the next 5 games....so the main reason why he was 'great' last year FF wise was due to Moss. So the loss of Moss will impact him.

4. Since you're the second person to say that Manning only outscores Pep by 3 points with 6pts/add TDs, I guess I'll take your word for it, but I may just check the stats myself to be sure on that.

 
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Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Holmes is winning this? Good grief.The Correct Answer is LT2. I didn't even think twice. Things change, and even a "healthy" Priest Holmes in 2005 is no guarantee that he'll be able to match the totals of a couple of special seasons. LT2 has NO ONE to take a significant number of touches from him and his vlaue in the receiving game has never been questioned.J, set us up the poll for this topic but add Bo Jackson, Jim Brown, and Barry Sanders and a few others. THat could be fun. ;)

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
LT2 [ 53 ] [18.53%]

Priest [ 213 ] [74.48%]

Alexander [ 2 ] [0.70%]

P Manning [ 8 ] [2.80%]

R Moss [ 1 ] [0.35%]

Other(specify) [ 8 ] [2.80%]

:yucky:

 

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