If game tape doesn't lie... (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

We all know the scoop...

* Did not perform at combine or Pro-Day

* Had a little pre-draft diaharea of the mouth

* Torn hammy

* Rumors of failed drug test

* Questionable work ethic

Nearly 1/2 of the NFL teams passed on White not once...but 2x. Obviously, teams like WAS, NO, NE, etc did not have a need at RB in the 2nd-round. However, I just can't shake the fact that teams like HOU, CLE, ATL, PHI and NYG passed on Lendale in the 2nd-round.

If Lendale was truly a Top-10 talent with the above-listed questionables, how could a handful of teams pass him multiple times?? Heck, even Randy Moss was drafted with the #17 overall pick.

 

[EBF]

See: Chris Henry

NFL teams definitely take character into account when evaluating prospects.

 

[TME]

He's fat and slow. There is not another succesful back in the league playing at 240-250 lbs. Jamal Lewis would be the closest thing (excluding the fact that Lewis has struggled the past couple years), but Lewis is a muscle bound physical freak. White looks like dough-boy.

 

[massraider]

I doubt if any coach in the NFL knew him better than Chow. That's what I keep coming back to. That speaks volumes to me, that they drafted him even with Brown and Henry on the roster.

It's obvious why he dropped. A hammy injury, and no one got a 40 time from him. Understandable why he fell.

I also wonder how many teams were looking for featured runners. Between this year and last year, a lot of teams got their RBOTF.

 

[-OZ-]

He's fat and slow.  There is not another succesful back in the league playing at 240-250 lbs.  Jamal Lewis would be the closest thing (excluding the fact that Lewis has struggled the past couple years), but Lewis is a muscle bound physical freak.  White looks like dough-boy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Perhaps not, just a retired HOFer. Although Lamont Jordan is 230.

I doubt if any coach in the NFL knew him better than Chow.  That's what I keep coming back to.  That speaks volumes to me, that they drafted him even with Brown and Henry on the roster.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That might be the reason they drafted him.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

If game tape doesn't lie..., ...why did Lendale White fall so hard ??

Maybe because that same game tape showed Bush drawing extra coverage on a lot of plays, and people having to drop back to respect Leinart/Jarrett/Smith/Byrd and the passing game, and it showed Justice,Lutui, Matua and Co. knocking people back off the line.Perhaps teams thought lots of other (lighter, stronger, harder working) players could have had similar production under those circumstances.

 

[Weiner Dog]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference. Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone. This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

 

[Kiddnets]

If the guy can't get himself in shape with millions of dollars on the line - why would he get in shape with millions of dollars in the bank? The dude seriously looked like Mr Stay Puff.

 

[fsufan]

does White have the speed to be a #1 NFL RB.

 

[Bri]

We all know the scoop...

* Did not perform at combine or Pro-Day

* Had a little pre-draft diaharea of the mouth

* Torn hammy

* Rumors of failed drug test

* Questionable work ethic

Nearly 1/2 of the NFL teams passed on White not once...but 2x.  Obviously, teams like WAS, NO, NE, etc did not have a need at RB in the 2nd-round.  However, I just can't shake the fact that teams like HOU, CLE, ATL, PHI and NYG passed on Lendale in the 2nd-round.

If Lendale was truly a Top-10 talent with the above-listed questionables, how could a handful of teams pass him multiple times??  Heck, even Randy Moss was drafted with the #17 overall pick.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

quality of another player is better or just as good as him+ the BS that might come with it.With Bush, he really wasn't the #1 back on his team. Did that bug him and he made comments all the time? "I could have gone to Michigan" or whatever? Maybe going in they knew he had a mouth and his comments verified all they were thinking.100% guess here.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Supposedly Norm Chow was jumping on a table for TEN to draft him. That might mean something too, huh? Norm knows what he's getting and I think that carries some weight in the evaluation. I think it's odd though that many did skip him, character issues play part and maybe Chow's confidence in knowing him makes him feel better about taking a chance with him. Love = blind

 

[Two Deep]

Two Words: [SIZE=14pt]MAN BOOBS[/SIZE]

 

[Crimedogg32]

Two Words: [SIZE=14pt]MAN BOOBS[/SIZE]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Christo]

The game tape didn't lie. It showed the USC OL blowing open massive holes for Bush and White to run through. It's what the two of them did after they reached the second level that is important. As as one poster above said, Bush had a much better YPC than White with the same OL.

Many people refer to the NC game for how impressive White looked. I disagree. While the total yardage and TDs look good, if you watch it closely White made one . . . one impressive play. And that was where he stiff-armed Huff to the ground. Otherwise, he was running through space.

IMHO, best case scenario for White is a TJ Duckett-like career. I don't think has it in him to come close to Bettis.

 

[TME]

I think if they put a stick on White's helmet, and hang a doughnut out there on a string just out of reach, the guy could run wild this season.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I think if they put a stick on White's helmet, and hang a doughnut out there on a string just out of reach, the guy could run wild this season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Sexican]

I think if they put a stick on White's helmet, and hang a doughnut out there on a string just out of reach, the guy could run wild this season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except it would have to be skrimps.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I think if they put a stick on White's helmet, and hang a doughnut out there on a string just out of reach, the guy could run wild this season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except it would have to be skrimps.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A whole turkey maybe. That would be scary.J

 

[FUBAR]

The game tape didn't lie.  It showed the USC OL blowing open massive holes for Bush and White to run through.  It's what the two of them did after they reached the second level that is important.  As as one poster above said, Bush had a much better YPC than White with the same OL.

Many people refer to the NC game for how impressive White looked.  I disagree.  While the total yardage and TDs look good, if you watch it closely White made one . . . one impressive play.  And that was where he stiff-armed Huff to the ground.  Otherwise, he was running through space.

IMHO, best case scenario for White is a TJ Duckett-like career.  I don't think has it in him to come close to Bettis.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White will not be the backup. Brown is not Dunn, he's done.

 

[GregR_2]

However, I just can't shake the fact that teams like HOU, CLE, ATL, PHI and NYG passed on Lendale in the 2nd-round.

Why is it that people keep naming Houston as someone who they think should have been interested in a RB in an early round? The Texans had so many holes to fill at other positions the only way they should even consider an first-day RB is if the guy has once-in-a-generation potential.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think if they put a stick on White's helmet, and hang a doughnut out there on a string just out of reach, the guy could run wild this season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except it would have to be skrimps.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A whole turkey maybe. That would be scary.J

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just a drumstick would do. He did say he loves the holiday meals.

 

[Rev]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think this logic carries any weight at all. No way can you criticize a player for gaining "only" 6.7 yards per cary. And no way can you criticize a player for gaining less yards per cary than Reggie Bush. You always expect a big back who pounds up the middle to get less yards per carry than a tailback (especially a stud like Bush) who swings around the outside.

Clean it up, man!

 

[massraider]

One could also make the argument that his talent was so great, that even with all that stuff, he only fell to the top of the 2nd round.

Who was the last RB picked without a 40 time??

MaGahee?

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think this logic carries any weight at all. No way can you criticize a player for gaining "only" 6.7 yards per cary. And no way can you criticize a player for gaining less yards per cary than Reggie Bush. You always expect a big back who pounds up the middle to get less yards per carry than a tailback (especially a stud like Bush) who swings around the outside.

Clean it up, man!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thank you Rev. My lord are people really tying as hard as they can to find reasons to knock White. I think this link helps put things in perspective as for how "bad" White's YPA were and how truely AMAZING Bush's were. They don't call Bush a once every 20 yrs RB for nothing. It is actually quite amazing the we even need to clarify just how incredible averaging 8.7 YPA on 200 carries really is.

 

[SSOG]

Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf. Sometimes, the game tape *DOES* lie.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

when you have a bunch of 40+ yard runs it tends to raise your average... bush has been compared to historically good RBs like sayers & faulk, so even if white isn't as good as bush he could be a very good RB...

you forgot to mention a few fun facts...

only true freshman in tailback U history to lead team in rushing... all time season rushing TD record in 2005... career rushing TD record... despite leaving a year early...

he has some well documented issues... but his situation isn't that different from heath miller who was unable to run a 40 due to injury... he may have dropped, but still went late in round one to steelers... ironically, PIT reportedly would have taken him off the board if they hadn't engineered trade up for holmes (assuming holmes was off the board)...

a lot of teams just didn't need RBs this season... in other seasons, i could easily have seen a RB like deangelo go sooner than pick 27...

the fact that chow had white for several years & vouched for him speaks highly for him...

most of the scouts i saw break him down were very impressed with his feet quickness, change of direction & movement skills for a big man...

i took him ahead of addai in a recent dynasty draft...

not counting the teams they landed on, purely on ability, i have him rated very close to deangelo & maroney... not as explosive, but a more powerful inside presence, less injury history than williams & questions about carrying the load (shared carries with bush) are no different in that respect than maroney (who split with either barber or russell)...

* mayock broke down film in which he hurdled some trash at the line, just as he landed & somebody dove at his leg he simultaneously made a cut to avoid the tackle... that kind of ability is instinctive & can't be taught... white is a sensational talent... injury is the only thing that can hold him back, imo... & he really doesn't have history of it... he played the games (you don't set TD record without playing a lot, let alone in one less year)...

it wouldn't surprise me if he is starting by mid-season, if not sooner...

he is not as fast as stephen davis (prep sprinter)... but he is far more sudden & explosive than eddie george... not as elusive as corey dillon, but may run stronger... he is not as fast as fast big backs like fred taylor & deuce... imo, his running skills are more natural than steven jackson...

another thing i like about white is he has promise to be a complete RB... i saw some highlights when he did a good job in pass protection redirecting the blitzer around & away from leinart, & i think his hands are underrated... he is not a bad athlete & has adequate ball skills, but just wasn't called upon much in that capacity with bush around...

his cousin is chauncey billups of pistons, so he has pretty athletic bloodlines...

 

[trader jake]

If game tape doesn't lie..., ...why did Lendale White fall so hard ??

some GM's believe that they are smarter than they really are (or it is ron dayne's fault...one or the other)

 

[Dave Baker]

Some amazing comments in this thread.

He dropped because:

1) Character issues

2) Lack of 40 time and weight issue

3) Ignorance of GMs putting too much into #2 above

Watching him play, almost every scout loved him. He impressed far beyond the lines opened up for him by his line. His feet are what separates him from others his size.

Many teams will regret passing up on White.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

if white comes back his senior year, wins the heisman, doesn't injure the hammy & runs a 4.5 or 4.6 (what did cedric benson run, & he was top 5 RB?)... he is a top 3-5 pick some seasons...

same guy that dropped to 45...

which is he... a top 3-5 or top 45 guy... depends how you look at it...

 

[WhoDat]

As absolutely painful as it is to say, he is your offensive ROY.

If any team in the NFL had the ability to draw a bead on White, then it was the Titans. Chow coached White. Fisher played at USC. Essentially, the Titans left the draft with 2 high leve of first round talents in Young and White.

I agree 100% with the attitude problems; injured hammy; lack of a formal 40 time ANYWHERE and the inability to pass on the Twinkies but the kid can play football.

Fisher will coach him up. Chow will make good use of him. White will be starting around week 4-6 and will slowly plod away with the ROY award, while his Bro/Manzier test the physical boundaries of lycra every step of the way.

 

[bagger.]

We all know the scoop...

* Did not perform at combine or Pro-Day

* Had a little pre-draft diaharea of the mouth

* Torn hammy

* Rumors of failed drug test

* Questionable work ethic

Nearly 1/2 of the NFL teams passed on White not once...but 2x.  Obviously, teams like WAS, NO, NE, etc did not have a need at RB in the 2nd-round.  However, I just can't shake the fact that teams like HOU, CLE, ATL, PHI and NYG passed on Lendale in the 2nd-round.

If Lendale was truly a Top-10 talent with the above-listed questionables, how could a handful of teams pass him multiple times??  Heck, even Randy Moss was drafted with the #17 overall pick.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

one thing that nobody is talking about is that a rumor came about on draft day that lendale failed a drug test. it turned out not to be true but that was something that came out in addition to his injury and poor pro day that made people pause.that's a lot for anyone to overcome...early 2nd round is still solid, but obviously not where he wanted or thought he should be.

 

[TLEF316]

Fisher will coach him up.  Chow will make good use of him.  White will be starting around week 4-6 and will slowly plod away with the ROY award, while his Bro/Manzier test the physical boundaries of lycra every step of the way.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf. Sometimes, the game tape *DOES* lie.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Leaf was only a 53% passer at Washington State. I think he was drafted more for his size, arm strength, and natural athleticism than for his efficiency in college (although he did rack up a lot of yards in that system as a junior). According to this article, college completion percentage and number of college starts are the two most important indicators of pro success, and in both cateogires, Ryan Leaf did even worse than Joey Harrington (who also did rather poorly). (Big Ben graded out very high.)/end hijack

 

[FreeBaGeL]

& questions about carrying the load (shared carries with bush) are no different in that respect than maroney (who split with either barber or russell)...

What??? People are far too enamored with the term "RBBC" or "shared the load". If two guys "shared the load" and each had 50 carries that is NOT the same as two guys who "shared the load" and each had 400 carries.I am no Maroney fan, but the guy carried the ball more than 45 times in a SINGLE GAME on several occassions.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

maroney did have most carries in his career in 2005 (281)

in 2003 he had 162 carries & barber had 207

in 2004 he had 217 carries & barber had 231

we don't have to call that splitting carries if you don't want to... lets coin a new phrase for it...

BTW on white

in 2003 he had 141 carries & bush had 100

in 2004 he had 203 carries & bush had 143

in 2005 he had 197 carries & bush had 200

as noted, maroney did carry more his junior season, but you can see there wasn't a huge difference in 2003-2004 seasons...

 

[Liquid Tension]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White running for almost all of the short yardage situations would make it almost impossible to have a better rushing average. Just think of how many TD's he scored where he was limited by the endzone. Comparing the yards per carry is silly, White wouldn't have a chance. NOTE: This is not to say White is close to Bush or even to compare who is better.

 

[jurb26]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White running for almost all of the short yardage situations would make it almost impossible to have a better rushing average. Just think of how many TD's he scored where he was limited by the endzone. Comparing the yards per carry is silly, White wouldn't have a chance. NOTE: This is not to say White is close to Bush or even to compare who is better.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dispite that, no RB in the top 50 Rushers other than Bush had a better YPA!

 

[-OZ-]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White running for almost all of the short yardage situations would make it almost impossible to have a better rushing average. Just think of how many TD's he scored where he was limited by the endzone. Comparing the yards per carry is silly, White wouldn't have a chance. NOTE: This is not to say White is close to Bush or even to compare who is better.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dispite that, no RB in the top 50 Rushers other than Bush had a better YPA!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

makes you wonder how good the OLmen are.

 

[NoFBinLA]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White running for almost all of the short yardage situations would make it almost impossible to have a better rushing average. Just think of how many TD's he scored where he was limited by the endzone. Comparing the yards per carry is silly, White wouldn't have a chance. NOTE: This is not to say White is close to Bush or even to compare who is better.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dispite that, no RB in the top 50 Rushers other than Bush had a better YPA!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

makes you wonder how good the OLmen are.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very.Although that's not to say White isn't good.

It's just that he and Reggie owe the boys a large fat steak dinner with all the trimmings.

Add me to the people who think White will surprise some of the naysayers. For many of the same reasons stated above.

But if he doesn't -- wouldn't Tenn look great with three half-assed RB's?

 

[Mungo Burrows]

What probably surprised me the most was the fact White (6.7) averaged 2+ yards per carry less than Bush (8.9) playing behind the same line and against the same opponents.

I know White was the "short-yardage" back and this may have affected his average somewhat, but 2+ yards per carry is a distinct and decisive difference.  Plus, (as mentioned above), defenses had to respect Bush at WR when White was in the backfield alone.  This should have given White an advantage over Bush...an advantage from which White obviously did not capitalize.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

White running for almost all of the short yardage situations would make it almost impossible to have a better rushing average. Just think of how many TD's he scored where he was limited by the endzone. Comparing the yards per carry is silly, White wouldn't have a chance. NOTE: This is not to say White is close to Bush or even to compare who is better.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dispite that, no RB in the top 50 Rushers other than Bush had a better YPA!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

makes you wonder how good the OLmen are.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very.Although that's not to say White isn't good.

It's just that he and Reggie owe the boys a large fat steak dinner with all the trimmings.

Add me to the people who think White will surprise some of the naysayers. For many of the same reasons stated above.

But if he doesn't -- wouldn't Tenn look great with three half-assed RB's?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lendale's got an ###-and-a-half all by himself. :rimshot:

 

[Weiner Dog]

I'm not interested in starting a debate over Lendale's talent. There is no doubt the guy was a monster in college. Heck, practically every player drafted in the first three rounds of every NFL draft was a monster in college.

I'm simply wondering if Lendale's fall into the mid-2nd is a signal of future success in the NFL. If you review the list of RB's drafted in the 2nd-round over the past five years, the "hit rate" is not very impressive.

Anthony Thomas ('01)

LaMont Jordan ('01)

Travis Henry ('01)

DeShaun Foster ('02)

Clinton Portis ('02)

Ladell Betts ('02)

Tatum Bell ('04)

Julis Jones ('04)

Greg Jones ('04)

JJ Arrington ('05)

Eric Shelton ('05)

To be frank, only Clinton Portis and Julius Jones have performed in-line with their probable initial draft position in most FF drafts. A case may now be made for LaMont Jordan, but I highly doubt most initial owners chose to keep Jordan on their roster through his 1,277 yards rushing in his first four seasons. Other than Portis' success, A-Train had nearly 3k yards his first three seasons, but he's probably now UFA material in most leagues. Same-case scenario with Travis Henry. To be kind, I'll combine the three "1/2's" of Jordan/A-Train/Henry and give the 2nd-rounders over the past five years a 32% success rate (3.5 out of 11).

Now...let's look at the 1st-rounders over the same five-year period.

LT ('01)

Deuce McAllister ('01)

Michael Bennett ('01)

William Green ('02)

TJ Duckett ('02)

Willis McGahee ('03)

Larry Johnson ('03)

Steven Jackson ('04)

Kevin Jones ('04)

Chris Perry ('04)

Ronnie Brown ('05)

Cadillac Williams ('05)

Cedric Benson ('05)

Of the 13 players listed above, it's safe to say only Bennett, Green, Duckett, Perry and Benson have not performed with their initial draft position. We're looking at a 62% "hit" rate with the 1st-round RB's over the past five years.

1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

Maroney

D Williams

Addai

White

M Drew

 

[Neo]

I'm not interested in starting a debate over Lendale's talent.  There is no doubt the guy was a monster in college.  Heck, practically every player drafted in the first three rounds of every NFL draft was a monster in college.

I'm simply wondering if Lendale's fall into the mid-2nd is a signal of future success in the NFL.  If you review the list of RB's drafted in the 2nd-round over the past five years, the "hit rate" is not very impressive.

Anthony Thomas ('01)

LaMont Jordan ('01)

Travis Henry ('01)

DeShaun Foster ('02)

Clinton Portis ('02)

Ladell Betts ('02)

Tatum Bell ('04)

Julis Jones ('04)

Greg Jones ('04)

JJ Arrington ('05)

Eric Shelton ('05)

To be frank, only Clinton Portis and Julius Jones have performed in-line with their probable initial draft position in most FF drafts.  A case may now be made for LaMont Jordan, but I highly doubt most initial owners chose to keep Jordan on their roster through his 1,277 yards rushing in his first four seasons.  Other than Portis' success, A-Train had nearly 3k yards his first three seasons, but he's probably now UFA material in most leagues.  Same-case scenario with Travis Henry.  To be kind, I'll combine the three "1/2's" of Jordan/A-Train/Henry and give the 2nd-rounders over the past five years a 32% success rate (3.5 out of 11).

Now...let's look at the 1st-rounders over the same five-year period.

LT ('01)

Deuce McAllister ('01)

Michael Bennett ('01)

William Green ('02)

TJ Duckett ('02)

Willis McGahee ('03)

Larry Johnson ('03)

Steven Jackson ('04)

Kevin Jones ('04)

Chris Perry ('04)

Ronnie Brown ('05)

Cadillac Williams ('05)

Cedric Benson ('05)

Of the 13 players listed above, it's safe to say only Bennett, Green, Duckett, Perry and Benson have not performed with their initial draft position.  We're looking at a 62% "hit" rate with the 1st-round RB's over the past five years.

1st-round RB's = 62% hit rate

2nd-round RB's = 32% hit rate

Maroney 

D Williams 

Addai 

White 

M Drew 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see what your saying. This is an argument that can and will make people green in the face. White should have been a first round pick. He has first round talent. It's all the hamstring, combine, drug test failing negativity that pushed his stock down....not his talent. Without all those questions surronding him, he would of went in the first. No question.

 

[msommer]

Weiner - I think you are being kind to Kevin Jones, Julius Jones and Willis McGahee.

KJ and Willis have certainly not lived up to their lofty FF draft positions - if you do not count the first year for McGahee (where he was known to have to rehab) he still only has a fifty percent rate of being studly and Kevin has not yet been studly at all. Steven Jackson could also fall in the McGahee group (although I like him better than Willis - if his knees hold up). Julius has trouble staying on the field - he was not drafted to play ten - twelve games a year...

If we count half points for three of the four the success rate is down to 50% - so the drop off to the second is much less significant (and much less surprising).

 

[mbuehner]

I think a lot of it has to do with the flavor of the week mentality of the NFL. 10 or 15 years ago, White would quite possible have been drafted before Bush, because the league didnt believe in little multi-threat running backs (think of how long its taken Tiki to get his recognition). Now, the league is all about speed out of the backfield (when the rough and tumble Pittsburgh Steelers are planting their flag on Willie Parker you know it to be true).

I dont know that White has the makeup to be an every down featured back in the league, altough its not impossible. But he certainly has the skill sets to make an impact. There are plenty of guys who have made careers out of being bowling balls. I think he ultimately went late because teams didnt want to pay 1st round money to a guy who might be important but probably wasnt an every down back.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He'll be money in TD heavy leagues.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

He'll be money in TD heavy leagues.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If anyone should know about that, it's Leroy Hoard!

 

[Weiner Dog]

Weiner -  I think you are being kind to Kevin Jones, Julius Jones and Willis McGahee.

KJ and Willis have certainly not lived up to their lofty FF draft positions - if you do not count the first year for McGahee (where he was known to have to rehab) he still only has a fifty percent rate of being studly and Kevin has not yet been studly at all. Steven Jackson could also fall in the McGahee group (although I like him better than Willis - if his knees hold up). Julius has trouble staying on the field - he was not drafted to play ten - twelve games a year...

If we count half points for three of the four the success rate is down to 50% - so the drop off to the second is much less significant (and much less surprising).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure...Jones and Jones can be debated. However, I really think McGahee has more than lived up to his initial draft projection. When owners drafted McGahee in '03, they were well aware their pick would not touch the field until '04. As a result, he fell to the mid of many 1st-round dynast drafts (unlike K Jones and J Jones). When McGahee touched the field, he ran wild (...or semi-wild, if you will). In his first two playing seasons, McGahee has ran for 2,475 yards and 18 TD's. He also had 50 receptions for 347 yards. More importantly, the supposed walking injury has not missed one single game.Remove K Jones. Remove J Jones. After doing so, the 2-to-1 spread in "hit-or-miss" percentage stays nearly the same between the two rounds of RB's.

 

[msommer]

Weiner -  I think you are being kind to Kevin Jones, Julius Jones and Willis McGahee.

KJ and Willis have certainly not lived up to their lofty FF draft positions - if you do not count the first year for McGahee (where he was known to have to rehab) he still only has a fifty percent rate of being studly and Kevin has not yet been studly at all. Steven Jackson could also fall in the McGahee group (although I like him better than Willis - if his knees hold up). Julius has trouble staying on the field - he was not drafted to play ten - twelve games a year...

If we count half points for three of the four the success rate is down to 50% - so the drop off to the second is much less significant (and much less surprising).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sure...Jones and Jones can be debated. However, I really think McGahee has more than lived up to his initial draft projection. When owners drafted McGahee in '03, they were well aware their pick would not touch the field until '04. As a result, he fell to the mid of many 1st-round dynast drafts (unlike K Jones and J Jones). When McGahee touched the field, he ran wild (...or semi-wild, if you will). In his first two playing seasons, McGahee has ran for 2,475 yards and 18 TD's. He also had 50 receptions for 347 yards. More importantly, the supposed walking injury has not missed one single game.Remove K Jones. Remove J Jones. After doing so, the 2-to-1 spread in "hit-or-miss" percentage stays nearly the same between the two rounds of RB's.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My complaint with McGahee is his drop from year two to year three - last year this time most people, some sharks even saw him as the second coming - even after Bledsoe had been shown the door. Your point about his drop in intital drafts noted however. In one of my leagues SJ, KJ and JJ were picked 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 in 2004 - none living up to that yet.

If you are completely stringent about your rankings then neither Brown nor Caddillac has shown themselves to be studs either (for various reasons, rbbc or injury) - which drops the success rate further.

At the end of the day - the past success or failure of 2nd round running backs can only be used to correlate future success if all things remain the same - which they don't - and that is probably where I disagree most - the success or failure of William Green or Ladanian Tomlinson does not relate to the success or failure of Reggie Bush or LenDale White.

Edited for clarity, spelling and grammar

 

[jurb26]

I think a lot of it has to do with the flavor of the week mentality of the NFL. 10 or 15 years ago, White would quite possible have been drafted before Bush, because the league didnt believe in little multi-threat running backs (think of how long its taken Tiki to get his recognition). Now, the league is all about speed out of the backfield (when the rough and tumble Pittsburgh Steelers are planting their flag on Willie Parker you know it to be true).

I dont know that White has the makeup to be an every down featured back in the league, altough its not impossible. But he certainly has the skill sets to make an impact.  There are plenty of guys who have made careers out of being bowling balls. I think he ultimately went late because teams didnt want to pay 1st round money to a guy who might be important but probably wasnt an every down back.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's just it though. White is NOT just a bowling ball. This is a guy with AMAZING feet for his size. Ala Bettis when he was coming out. That is not to say he is a sure thing to repeat the feets that Bettis did at the NFL level. It's really just to paint a better picture of the type of talent we are talking about.

 

[mbuehner]

That's just it though. White is NOT just a bowling ball. This is a guy with AMAZING feet for his size. Ala Bettis when he was coming out. That is not to say he is a sure thing to repeat the feets that Bettis did at the NFL level. It's really just to paint a better picture of the type of talent we are talking about.

Totally agree.