If the NFL draft were today what non-1st rnd picks would (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

If the NFL draft took place today ...

1. Which of the players taken AFTER the first round would have earned a TOP-TEN first round grade?

2. Which players taken AFTER the first round have played well enough to earn a first round grade but probably not a top-ten grade?

Its interesting to see later picks who play better than their draft grade and try and figure out what sort of draft grade they would earn against the upcoming draft class.

The upcoming draft isn't as deep as the one we saw this last April so I think good cases can be made for many players taken after the first round to be first round and at least a couple would be considered top-ten picks if they were available in next year's draft class.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I am aware of this fellow named something Brady, plays a fairly solid QB. I feel as if he might be a top ten guy.

 

[Quibbler]

Just from last year, or for all active players?

 

[Sweet Love]

I hope this is only for 2012...

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Just from last year, or for all active players?

OH sorry.Yeah, from last year's draft.

That would be most appropriate and make the most sense when trying to figure out which of the players taken AFTER the first round from LAST YEAR have earned first round and top-ten grades for the upcoming draft.

EDIT: Here are a couple of links to help out >>

Link to 2012 NFL draft

LINK to 2013 mock

LINK to 2013 mock of top 16 picks

 

[MAC_32]

1. Casey Heyward, liked him more than Gilmore coming out and he's showing why, didn't think he'd be this good this fast though

2. Lavonte David. Size is over rated re LB's. Russell Wilson. Apparently it is with QB's too. Bobbie Massey, never understood his draft day tumble and while he got off to a rocky start he's really come on lately. Lots of teams have serious RT problems and they all ignored him. Leonard Johnson, blown away he went undrafted. Physical attributes were lacking, but on field product certainly was not. Deserving of day 2 pick last year and has shown this year he could have been a late round 1 guy. Bryce Brown, not all-in yet because I don't trust his head but he's crossed some very large hurdles very quickly to show just how talented he is.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

1. Casey Heyward, liked him more than Gilmore coming out and he's showing why, didn't think he'd be this good this fast though

2. Lavonte David. Size is over rated re LB's. Russell Wilson. Apparently it is with QB's too. Bobbie Massey, never understood his draft day tumble and while he got off to a rocky start he's really come on lately. Lots of teams have serious RT problems and they all ignored him. Leonard Johnson, blown away he went undrafted. Physical attributes were lacking, but on field product certainly was not. Deserving of day 2 pick last year and has shown this year he could have been a late round 1 guy. Bryce Brown, not all-in yet because I don't trust his head but he's crossed some very large hurdles very quickly to show just how talented he is.

Both are names who I agree with. Hayward has impressed me since he started to get PT and lately Lavonte is looking excellent.Some names from the lower rounds.

7th round

The only guy who has made an impact is: RB Bryce Brown PHI would have to be considered for a late first round pick

6th round

The only guy who has a shot to move up significantly and probably would be considered for the first round of this upcoming draft is: RB Alfred Morris WAS has played and produced solidly all year and any team needing a RB would probably have him as a possible first round pick in a weak draft class next year.

I don't see anyone who really has busted out from round 5 of last year so just looking from rounds 2 thru 4 who else has played well enough to break into the top-ten or sneak into first round consideration for next year's draft?

 

[Sabertooth]

Josh Gordon, TY Hilton or Chris Givens over AJ Jenkins for sure if the 49ers went WR again.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Josh Gordon, TY Hilton or Chris Givens over AJ Jenkins for sure if the 49ers went WR again.

Givens and Gordon for sure. TY would likely sneak into the bottom of the first round next year but as of right now I don't know if Jenkins would make it based on what he's done.EDIT: I think WR Josh Gordon (Browns supplemental 2nd round selection from 2012) would be under consideration for a top-ten pick in 2013

 

[Quibbler]

1. Casey Heyward, liked him more than Gilmore coming out and he's showing why, didn't think he'd be this good this fast though2. Lavonte David. Size is over rated re LB's. Russell Wilson. Apparently it is with QB's too. Bobbie Massey, never understood his draft day tumble and while he got off to a rocky start he's really come on lately. Lots of teams have serious RT problems and they all ignored him. Leonard Johnson, blown away he went undrafted. Physical attributes were lacking, but on field product certainly was not. Deserving of day 2 pick last year and has shown this year he could have been a late round 1 guy. Bryce Brown, not all-in yet because I don't trust his head but he's crossed some very large hurdles very quickly to show just how talented he is.

There are also a bunch of WRs, any of which I could see moving up to the end of the 1st: Givens, Hilton, Broyles, Randle, etc.. Hilton tops that group, IMO.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

The Seahawks QB Russell Wilson was the first name that came to mind.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

1. Which of the players taken AFTER the first round would have earned a TOP-TEN first round grade?

Russell Wilson

2. Which players taken AFTER the first round have played well enough to earn a first round grade but probably not a top-ten grade?

Mitchell Schwartz

Janoris Jenkins

Cordy Glenn

Lavonte David

Josh Robinson

T. Y. Hilton

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Bobby Wagner, who should be DROY.

Janoris Jenkins dropped for off the field reasons, but he's shown that he really is a top-10 talent. Should have been the 1st CB drafted.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

1. Which of the players taken AFTER the first round would have earned a TOP-TEN first round grade?Russell Wilson

I agree and considering the upcoming draft class is weak, especially at QB that he likely would be the top pick.I also think WR Josh Gordon and OT Cordy Glenn would likely make it into next year's top-ten.

2. Which players taken AFTER the first round have played well enough to earn a first round grade but probably not a top-ten grade?Mitchell SchwartzJanoris JenkinsCordy GlennLavonte DavidJosh RobinsonT. Y. Hilton

Jansoris Jenkins for sure and he would be in top-ten consideration except for the off-field concerns. TY is a fantasy favorite but Givens looks like the real deal so I don't know if Hilton could break into the first round and I haven't seen enough of Robinson but where TY has been helped by Luck Robinson has been hampered by Ponder.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Bobby Wagner, who should be DROY.

Janoris Jenkins dropped for off the field reasons, but he's shown that he really is a top-10 talent. Should have been the 1st CB drafted.

Wagner defnitely would make it into the first round and he has had some monster games lately but Lavonte David has really come on strong lately and I'd rank him above Bobby right now.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I haven't seen enough of Robinson but where TY has been helped by Luck Robinson has been hampered by Ponder.

I meant Josh Robinson the cornerback. It's a stretch but he's been sneaky good so far this year and I think he'll continue to develop to where the Vikes can hopefully jettison the moron Chris Cook.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I haven't seen enough of Robinson but where TY has been helped by Luck Robinson has been hampered by Ponder.

I meant Josh Robinson the cornerback. It's a stretch but he's been sneaky good so far this year and I think he'll continue to develop to where the Vikes can hopefully jettison the moron Chris Cook.

Ahh I was thinking WR Jarius WrightRobinson is 'ok' but doesn't possess anything that screams first round in terms of size and he hasn't made many big plays, only 1 INT, 44 combined tackles, no forced or recovered fumbles, only 2 passes defensed.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I haven't seen enough of Robinson but where TY has been helped by Luck Robinson has been hampered by Ponder.

I meant Josh Robinson the cornerback. It's a stretch but he's been sneaky good so far this year and I think he'll continue to develop to where the Vikes can hopefully jettison the moron Chris Cook.

Ahh I was thinking WR Jarius WrightRobinson is 'ok' but doesn't possess anything that screams first round in terms of size and he hasn't made many big plays, only 1 INT, 44 combined tackles, no forced or recovered fumbles, only 2 passes defensed.

But he hasn't gotten starter time yet either. Like I said, it would be a stretch, but I think he'll show he should have been drafted before the 3rd at least.Jarius Wright is starting to flash too and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Vikes let Harvin walk because of Wright.

 

[Concept Coop]

Janoris Jenkins dropped for off the field reasons, but he's shown that he really is a top-10 talent. Should have been the 1st CB drafted.

As a Cowboys fan, I would rather keep Claiborne.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

So the names we came up with for the two questions were:

If the NFL draft took place today ...

1. Which of the players taken AFTER the first round from last year's draft would have earned a TOP-TEN first round grade?

CB Casey Heyward Green Bay (I don't think he'd be a top-ten pick but definitely a first rounder)

WR Josh Gordon (Browns supplemental 2nd round selection from 2012)

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (I think he would be the top pick in next year's draft)

OT Cordy Glenn BILLs

2. Which players taken AFTER the first round of last year's draft have played well enough to earn a first round grade but probably not a top-ten grade?

LB Lavonte David Tampa Bay

OT Bobbie Massey ARI (good name and he's really come on strong)

CB Leonard Johnson Tampa Bay UNDRAFTED FREE AGENT (don't know enough about him but the Bucs felt good nuff with him to ditch Aquib and his stats, since he didn't start the first six games, are decent so an interesting name)

RB Bryce Brown PHI

RB Alfred Morris WAS

WR TY Hilton IND

WR Chris Givens STL

OT Mitchell Schwartz CLE

CB Janoris Jenkins STL

LB Bobby Wagner SEA

Some other names mentioned but with all of the above and next year's crop it wouldn't be a sure bet they would make it.

CB Josh Robinson MIN

WRs AJ Jenkins SF, Broyles DET, Randle NYG

And a few names not mentioned that I'll toss into the mix:

C Peter Konz ATL

LB Mychal Kendricks PHI

WR Alshon Jeffery CHI

 

[mad sweeney]

Bobby Wagner, who should be DROY. Janoris Jenkins dropped for off the field reasons, but he's shown that he really is a top-10 talent. Should have been the 1st CB drafted.

Wagner and Wilson were who I was going to mention. Two first round talents taken in the 3rd and 4th. Carroll and Schneider had one of the best modern drafts ever. Even their 7th round pick started week 1 and will prove to be s very serviceable guard.

 

[Utter Chaos]

I know he's a kicker and only the Raiders take kickers in the first round but Greg Zuerlein (Rams-6th round) is having an All-Pro season.

Are any of the other 2012 non-first rounders going to make it to the Pro Bowl?

 

[Bankerguy]

Has Dennard not played well for New England?

 

[flranger]

As to question 1, my first thought is which of the original top 10 could fall out (to a non first round pick):

No Chance IND Andrew Luck

No Chance WAS Robert Griffin III

No Chance CLE Trent Richardson

No Chance MIN Matt Kalil T Started all 12 games. Notice ADP career year? First round stud might be reason.

Possible JAX Justin Blackmon WR Young QB with zero WRs. I still think Jax would go WR. Maybe Gordon.

Possible DAL Morris Claiborne Thinking Jenkins could make a push here. Dallas traded up to get Claiborne.

Unlikely TAM Mark Barron SS Schiano had this guy targeted all along. He was looking for leadership and found it.

Unlikely MIA Ryan Tannehill QB Tannehill has been decent. Maybe they go Wilson here instead?

Possible CAR Luke Kuechly Kuechly had a decent season. Could go Wagner here. Carolina needed DEF.

Likely BUF Stephon Gilmore Buffalo would take either Wilson if still available or Tannehill.

In my mind that leaves four possible spots. I don't believe that Tannehill or Claiborne would fall out in any circumstance (to a non 1st round pick) even if they ended up picked by different teams in the top 10. In my mind only three could fall out (Blackmon, Kuechly, Gilmore). I'd say Wilson, Jenkins, Gordon most likely to make move.

 

[MAC_32]

Has Dennard not played well for New England?

I've liked Heyward and Johnson more, thought about Dennard though, wouldn't argue including him

 

[mad sweeney]

Bobby Wagner, who should be DROY. Janoris Jenkins dropped for off the field reasons, but he's shown that he really is a top-10 talent. Should have been the 1st CB drafted.

Wagner and Wilson were who I was going to mention. Two first round talents taken in the 3rd and 4th. Carroll and Schneider had one of the best modern drafts ever. Even their 7th round pick started week 1 and will prove to be s very serviceable guard.

Hell of a draft. What I think goes underrated is when Carroll first came to Seattle, his first draft, he didn't do what McDaniels did, which was make reaches and hard to swallow picks to start, he went with a very conservative first draft, won a playoff game, and then took some risks. Which sadly I think is the difference between a veteran NFL coach and a rookie one, not putting that much weight on your back for your first draft. To build a champion, IMHO, you need 2-3 consecutive excellent drafts. The Hawks are on their way if they can just making these solid picks. Round 1: Bruce Irvin, DE, West VirginiaRound 2: Bobby Wagner, OLB, Utah StateRound 3: Russell Wilson, QB, WisconsinRound 4: Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State; Jaye Howard, DT, FloridaRound 5: Korey Toomer, ILB, IdahoRound 6: Jeremy Lane, CB, Northwestern State; Winston Guy, S, KentuckyRound 7: J.R. Sweezy, RG, N.C. State; Greg Scruggs, DE, Louisville

Scruggs was playing well but I think he got hurt. We'll see what Lane has to offer soon with Browner out and Zherman sure to follow. I can't see Trufant moving out to CB so Thurmond and Lane will see time. Lane's been a ST beast. He's supposed to be a physical press CB. It'd be even bigger feathers in their cap if Lane works out.

 

[I-LoveRB's]

As to question 1, my first thought is which of the original top 10 could fall out (to a non first round pick):No Chance IND Andrew Luck No Chance WAS Robert Griffin III No Chance CLE Trent Richardson No Chance MIN Matt Kalil T Started all 12 games. Notice ADP career year? First round stud might be reason.Possible JAX Justin Blackmon WR Young QB with zero WRs. I still think Jax would go WR. Maybe Gordon.Possible DAL Morris Claiborne Thinking Jenkins could make a push here. Dallas traded up to get Claiborne.Unlikely TAM Mark Barron SS Schiano had this guy targeted all along. He was looking for leadership and found it. Unlikely MIA Ryan Tannehill QB Tannehill has been decent. Maybe they go Wilson here instead? Possible CAR Luke Kuechly Kuechly had a decent season. Could go Wagner here. Carolina needed DEF.Likely BUF Stephon Gilmore Buffalo would take either Wilson if still available or Tannehill.In my mind that leaves four possible spots. I don't believe that Tannehill or Claiborne would fall out in any circumstance (to a non 1st round pick) even if they ended up picked by different teams in the top 10. In my mind only three could fall out (Blackmon, Kuechly, Gilmore). I'd say Wilson, Jenkins, Gordon most likely to make move.

Kuechly > Wagner. So he'd stay.

 

[Donnybrook]

Cecil Shorts should definitely be a first rounder based on his play.

Two others that look to be better than their draft position are Akiem Hicks and Bill Bentley but maybe not 1st round quality.

 

[Nucker101]

Cecil Shorts should definitely be a first rounder based on his play. Two others that look to be better than their draft position are Akiem Hicks and Bill Bentley but maybe not 1st round quality.

Shorts was drafted in 2011, but nonetheless he's been great!

 

[Donnybrook]

Cecil Shorts should definitely be a first rounder based on his play. Two others that look to be better than their draft position are Akiem Hicks and Bill Bentley but maybe not 1st round quality.

Shorts was drafted in 2011, but nonetheless he's been great!

my bad. In my defense, his performance in year one was pretty forgetable. I guess it good news for players like AJ Jenkins and others that haven't emerged yet.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I know he's a kicker and only the Raiders take kickers in the first round but Greg Zuerlein (Rams-6th round) is having an All-Pro season. Are any of the other 2012 non-first rounders going to make it to the Pro Bowl?

Legatron is not having an All-Pro season and is not deserving of Pro Bowl consideration. 22nd in kicker 14th in FGM and 25th in FG Pct - only 3 Ks have missed more FGs.Love the kid and I'll be targeting him in my 2013 redraft. But he's had two great games (Week 4 & 12). The rep is based on myth and hype, not results.

 

[I-LoveRB's]

I know he's a kicker and only the Raiders take kickers in the first round but Greg Zuerlein (Rams-6th round) is having an All-Pro season. Are any of the other 2012 non-first rounders going to make it to the Pro Bowl?

Legatron is not having an All-Pro season and is not deserving of Pro Bowl consideration. 22nd in kicker 14th in FGM and 25th in FG Pct - only 3 Ks have missed more FGs.Love the kid and I'll be targeting him in my 2013 redraft. But he's had two great games (Week 4 & 12). The rep is based on myth and hype, not results.

To be fair quoting FG % with a guy like Legatron is pretty unfair, he has tried 11 FGs from 50+ yards a guy like Alex Henery hasn't tried any. Zuerlein has only missed 2 FGs under 50 yards and one was in very high winds. He has made 7/11 FGs of 50+ yards and could break the record for most made in a season, I know he has tried a few from 60+ as well. Once again its not fair to quote FG% when he is trying kicks that only 2-3 other kickers would even attempt. In addition he has won a few games for his team virtually by himself, a 53 yarder with 00:00 remaining then a 54 yarder in OT is pretty nice weapon to have.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

As to question 1, my first thought is which of the original top 10 could fall out (to a non first round pick):

No Chance IND Andrew Luck

No Chance WAS Robert Griffin III

No Chance CLE Trent Richardson

No Chance MIN Matt Kalil T Started all 12 games. Notice ADP career year? First round stud might be reason.

Possible JAX Justin Blackmon WR Young QB with zero WRs. I still think Jax would go WR. Maybe Gordon.

Possible DAL Morris Claiborne Thinking Jenkins could make a push here. Dallas traded up to get Claiborne.

Unlikely TAM Mark Barron SS Schiano had this guy targeted all along. He was looking for leadership and found it.

Unlikely MIA Ryan Tannehill QB Tannehill has been decent. Maybe they go Wilson here instead?

Possible CAR Luke Kuechly Kuechly had a decent season. Could go Wagner here. Carolina needed DEF.

Likely BUF Stephon Gilmore Buffalo would take either Wilson if still available or Tannehill.

In my mind that leaves four possible spots. I don't believe that Tannehill or Claiborne would fall out in any circumstance (to a non 1st round pick) even if they ended up picked by different teams in the top 10. In my mind only three could fall out (Blackmon, Kuechly, Gilmore). I'd say Wilson, Jenkins, Gordon most likely to make move.

The idea is to look at players who were drafted in the 2012 (last year's draft) AFTER the first round and then, with the knowledge we have accumulated from their rookie seasons, basically knowing what we have found out about the lower drafted guys from last year's draft TODAY ask the following question.How many of the lower drafted guys (after the first round) from the 2012 draft class would be worthy of top-ten and first round grades in the upcoming 2013 draft.

Take a look at some early mocks for the 2013 draft and you will see that the upcoming draft isn't as deep or talented as last year's draft class.

2013 NFL mock draft

2013 NFL draft top 16 mock

So the names from last year taken after the first round are being stacked up against the 2013 draft prospects to try and determine who would be considered top-ten and first round prospects.

I think the names that have been mentioned are very good.

Add CB Dennard from NE is also a good name and might sneak into the bottom of the first round if put into the 2013 draft pool but if we include all of the other names from this list he probably would slide into the second round.

It shows how deep last year's draft class was. Really good draft.

 

[MAC_32]

Cecil Shorts should definitely be a first rounder based on his play. Two others that look to be better than their draft position are Akiem Hicks and Bill Bentley but maybe not 1st round quality.

Shorts was drafted in 2011, but nonetheless he's been great!

my bad. In my defense, his performance in year one was pretty forgetable. I guess it good news for players like AJ Jenkins and others that haven't emerged yet.

Yep, the only round 1 guy I liked that I've soured on is Blackmon, head issues are a huge red flag. Some guys take 2-3 years to develop, people flip flopping opinions this quickly based solely on lack of on field production aren't playing this game right.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I know he's a kicker and only the Raiders take kickers in the first round but Greg Zuerlein (Rams-6th round) is having an All-Pro season. Are any of the other 2012 non-first rounders going to make it to the Pro Bowl?

Legatron is not having an All-Pro season and is not deserving of Pro Bowl consideration. 22nd in kicker 14th in FGM and 25th in FG Pct - only 3 Ks have missed more FGs.Love the kid and I'll be targeting him in my 2013 redraft. But he's had two great games (Week 4 & 12). The rep is based on myth and hype, not results.

To be fair quoting FG % with a guy like Legatron is pretty unfair, he has tried 11 FGs from 50+ yards a guy like Alex Henery hasn't tried any. Zuerlein has only missed 2 FGs under 50 yards and one was in very high winds. He has made 7/11 FGs of 50+ yards and could break the record for most made in a season, I know he has tried a few from 60+ as well. Once again its not fair to quote FG% when he is trying kicks that only 2-3 other kickers would even attempt. In addition he has won a few games for his team virtually by himself, a 53 yarder with 00:00 remaining then a 54 yarder in OT is pretty nice weapon to have.

The assertion was Zuerlein is having an All-Pro Season. In response I quoted 4 stats. Fine, parse out his 77.8% FG Pct. Do you think a guy 22nd in kicker scoring is an All-Pro?

 

[notdarkyet]

Vontaze Burfict - Wouldn't be top ten, but would definitely garner some attention as a first rounder.

 

[MAC_32]

Vontaze Burfict - Wouldn't be top ten, but would definitely garner some attention as a first rounder.

Thought about him, but I think David and Wagner still go ahead of him and rightfully so. Four MIKE LB's in round 1 is overkill. Vontaze has gone a long way to proving his laundry list of doubters wrong, but we'll see how he handles an offseason post-success. I think we'll have a much better idea of who he is September next year.

 

[10tihwj]

I can only assume we are excluding things like measureables here, because rookie year stats for guys like Wilson and Hilton would still not get them round one grades due to their physical attributes.

1. Which of the players taken AFTER the first round would have earned a TOP-TEN first round grade?

Janoris Jenkins

2. Which players taken AFTER the first round have played well enough to earn a first round grade but probably not a top-ten grade?

Bobby Wagner

Dwayne Allen

Russell Wilson

Chris Givens

Alfred Morris

T.Y. Hilton

Lavonte David

EDIT: Did not include Josh Gordon because he was not eligible to be drafted. Otherwise he is a clear 1st round talent who shows more upside and talent than Justin Blackmon.