If The Pats Win This Weekend (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

Including NE in this group (which is premature as they have nothing to play for and could end up losing to Miami), here's the net yards from scrimmage for all teams that have won 14 games in a season.

2001 STL 2219

2007 NEP 1967

1972 MIA 1739

1985 CHI 1702

1989 SFO 1650

1990 SFO 1622

1984 MIA 1516

1991 WAS 1448

1992 SFO 1408

1986 CHI 1329

1999 JAX 1252

1998 MIN 1198

1984 SFO 1190

1998 DEN 1157

2004 PIT 1050

2006 SDC 1015

2005 IND 886

1985 WAS 875

1978 PIT 828

1998 ATL 753

2004 NEP 750

1986 NYG 621

2009 IND 382

2003 NEP 373

2010 NEP -296

I'm not sure how a team could allow more yardage than they have produced and win so many games, but you are what your record says you are.

 

[MrJimiT]

This is a very alarming stat imo. Many years ago, I read about an "opportunistic" stat entitled Points Per 100 Yards...P100Y. It was basically a statistic that measured the most opportunistic teams in the amount of points scored per 100 yards gained. The particular season that I read the article, the top 10 teams (used to be 5 teams from each conference in the old days) in the stat category were also the 10 playoff teams.

Is it a correct assumption of mine that "yards from scrimmage" do NOT include special teams and/or return yardage?

Very interesting find!

 

[David Yudkin]

Special teams and turnover return yards are not included. Basically, yards gained on offensive plays less yardd allowed on defense plays.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

that's pretty interesting (and nice to see pats in there 4x), and I'll add these red zone efficiency lists I googled:

http://www.preplaysports.com/2010/12/11/di...one-efficiency/

Lions 33 23 69.7%

Colts 46 32 69.6%

Patriots 49 32 65.3%

Jaguars 35 21 62.9%

Texans 40 25 62.5%

Packers 39 24 61.5%

Cowboys 35 21 60.0%

also

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/colum...&id=5427715

Updated: August 1, 2010, 3:49 PM ET

Belichick taking aim at red zone

Reiss By Mike Reiss

ESPNBoston.com

Archive

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- Based on the New England Patriots' first five training camp practices, the groundskeepers who maintain the two plush practice fields behind Gillette Stadium can narrow their focus.

Almost everything, it seems, is taking place inside the 20-yard line.

The message couldn't be any clearer. Bill Belichick wasn't pleased with the red zone results last season, and he's loaded up his early practice itinerary with work in that area. Sometimes the ball is spotted on the 20. Other times it's on the 10, 5 or even closer to the goal line.

What has resulted is some of the most spirited segments of practice, the offense and defense jawing at each other in the 11-on-11 work, a celebration usually resulting after the play.

"After turnovers, red area is probably the No. 1 statistic that correlates with winning and losing," Belichick said Saturday on Sirius NFL radio. "We have higher goals than what we achieved last year."

edit: also, I believe the pats are 6th best in penalties.

 

[David Yudkin]

that's pretty interesting (and nice to see pats in there 4x), and I'll add these red zone efficiency lists I googled:

BB would become the first coach to have 4 seasons with 14 or more regular season wins.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's another odd tidbit. If the Pats give up 384 yards from scrimmage to the Dolphins this week, they will eclipse 6,000 yards in yards from scrimmage allowed on the season. (In their last 6 meetings with MIA, NE has allowed 384 yards or more 5 times.)

Entering this year, there were 34 teams to have done that in the era of the 16-game schedule (since 1978). Those teams have compiled a .324 winning percentage in those seasons (basically a 5-11 record for a full season). 1986 NYJ and the 1981 SDC both went 10-6 and tied for the best record of teams allowing 6,000 yards.

The Pats could easily be joined by WAS, DEN, SEA, HOU, and ARI in the 6,000 yards allowed club this week. Those teams combined this year are winning at a similar clip to those other teams (.347 winning percentage on the season).

 

[Fensalk]

I think this is a tale of two teams. Early in the season, the Patriots looked like they had a lot of issues. They lost to the Browns don't forget.

The offense suffered due to lack of production from Randy Moss. Trading him and acquiring Branch changed their offense. It also helps them match up with the Jets better. Cromartie was a good matchup to neutralize Randy Moss but he is not so good defending Branch. Basically the Jets built their team to stop the Patiriots, and so the Patriots adjusted and changed their WRs. The Patriots also have benefited a great deal from getting Logan Mankins back on the offensive line. He missed most of the year with injury and they had to reshuffle the OL to mixed results. When he came back, production across the board, in the running game and passing game, went up significantly.

On defense, the team doesn't have a defensive coordinator. Belichick has that role. They suffered a number of key injuries before the season began. They lost Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and safety Brandon McGowan to IR before week 1. It is their youngest defensive unit in 13 years, averaging just under 27 years old. Belichick spent over half the year trying players in different roles with mixed results until finally finding some things that worked and getting people comfortable with their assignments.

Overall, its a team that underwent a significant amount of transition in 2010. Arguably some of Belichick's best work to coach this squad to a 13-2 record and home field advantage, as he wore two hats.

What's also helped the defense is Brady not throwing an interception in forever. Keeps a lot of pressure off the D in several ways. They aren't stuck defending a short field off a pick, and their offensive drives are more productive in eating clock and scoring points.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The most interesting thing about that list IMO is that the Pats have three of the bottom five spots. I suspect that's because they don't make big mistakes very often - that they're net winners in terms of turnovers and special teams.

Ok... just spent a few minutes poking around Football Outsiders and found average starting positions for each team's offense and defense. Netting the two you get:

ATL 5.0

NE 4.6

NYJ 4.1

KC 3.8

PHI 3.5

CHI 3.1

STL 2.6

BAL 2.3

TEN 2.1

CIN 1.9

JAC 1.5

CLE 1.4

PIT 0.9

DAL 0.7

MIN 0.4

GB 0.2

TB 0.2

SEA (0.0)

IND (1.1)

SF (1.2)

DET (1.2)

NO (1.4)

WAS (2.0)

NYG (2.4)

ARI (2.5)

OAK (2.6)

MIA (2.7)

BUF (3.3)

CAR (3.6)

DEN (4.0)

HOU (4.3)

SD (5.0)

So Atlanta and New England's average starting position is 5 yards better than their 2010 opponents'. And if you want to see what the Chargers' special teams did to them - they're dead last, at minus 5 yards.

So in a game where each team has a dozen possessions you'd have to outgain New England by 60 yards from scrimmage to offset the advantage they have in starting field position.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

So, with the playoffs in view, what is the take from this? Is NE ripe for an upset at home? Or is this simply one gigantic outlier that can't really lead to any logical prediction?

 

[Fensalk]

So, with the playoffs in view, what is the take from this? Is NE ripe for an upset at home? Or is this simply one gigantic outlier that can't really lead to any logical prediction?

I looked at the games where the Patriots were outgained by huge margins. All but one came earlier in the year before they were healthy and organized, the exception being the Packers game. What is clear to me is the offense struggled at times earlier in the season, but the Patriots consistently made HUGE plays on defense and special teams, like running back kickoffs, pick sixes, picks and fumbles setting up short fields. Meanwhile, the Patriots very rarely turn the ball over themselves. Its a very disciplined team when they have the football. If you win the turnover battle, you often win the game, and the Patriots are +27 in the turnover category. The Patriots lead the NFL in turnover margin.

The Packer game is an example. The Patriots were outgained 369-249. The Patriots won because of HUGE plays. They returned a kickoff 71 yards just before halftime to the GB 4 and punched it in for a quick TD. The Patriots also scored on a pick 6. Finally the game ended on a long Packer drive that ended with the Packers losing a fumble at the Patriots' 15. The packers committed 3 turnovers in total. The Patriots committed zero turnovers.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, with the playoffs in view, what is the take from this? Is NE ripe for an upset at home? Or is this simply one gigantic outlier that can't really lead to any logical prediction?

NE is winning by not turning the ball over on offense and getting a lot of turnovers from their defense. One would think that at some point that formula will start to change. They can't kepp playing without any turnovers. That may not automatically mean that the Pats will lose, but it will make them do other things to win instead of sitting back and waiting for their opponent to make mistakes.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, with the playoffs in view, what is the take from this? Is NE ripe for an upset at home? Or is this simply one gigantic outlier that can't really lead to any logical prediction?

I looked at the games where the Patriots were outgained by huge margins. All but one came earlier in the year before they were healthy and organized, the exception being the Packers game. What is clear to me is the offense struggled at times earlier in the season, but the Patriots consistently made HUGE plays on defense and special teams, like running back kickoffs, pick sixes, picks and fumbles setting up short fields. Meanwhile, the Patriots very rarely turn the ball over themselves. Its a very disciplined team when they have the football. If you win the turnover battle, you often win the game, and the Patriots are +18 in the turnover category. The Patriots lead the NFL in turnover margin.The Packer game is an example. The Patriots were outgained 369-249. The Patriots won because of HUGE plays. They returned a kickoff 71 yards just before halftime to the GB 4 and punched it in for a quick TD. The Patriots also scored on a pick 6. Finally the game ended on a long Packer drive that ended with the Packers losing a fumble at the Patriots' 15. The packers committed 3 turnovers in total. The Patriots committed zero turnovers.

NE is actually +27 in turnovers. The 1983 Redskins were even sicker. They were +43.

 

[Fensalk]

So, with the playoffs in view, what is the take from this? Is NE ripe for an upset at home? Or is this simply one gigantic outlier that can't really lead to any logical prediction?

I looked at the games where the Patriots were outgained by huge margins. All but one came earlier in the year before they were healthy and organized, the exception being the Packers game. What is clear to me is the offense struggled at times earlier in the season, but the Patriots consistently made HUGE plays on defense and special teams, like running back kickoffs, pick sixes, picks and fumbles setting up short fields. Meanwhile, the Patriots very rarely turn the ball over themselves. Its a very disciplined team when they have the football. If you win the turnover battle, you often win the game, and the Patriots are +18 in the turnover category. The Patriots lead the NFL in turnover margin.The Packer game is an example. The Patriots were outgained 369-249. The Patriots won because of HUGE plays. They returned a kickoff 71 yards just before halftime to the GB 4 and punched it in for a quick TD. The Patriots also scored on a pick 6. Finally the game ended on a long Packer drive that ended with the Packers losing a fumble at the Patriots' 15. The packers committed 3 turnovers in total. The Patriots committed zero turnovers.

NE is actually +27 in turnovers. The 1983 Redskins were even sicker. They were +43.

The Patriots were actually slightly outgained by the Bills last week in the 34-3 rout. The Bills turned it over 7 times. The Patriots had 0 turnovers.

 

[Fensalk]

The Patriots have thrown the fewest interceptions in the league (5).

The Patriots have lost the fewest fumbles (4).

The Patriots defense has the most interceptions in the league (24).

The Patriots defense is 9th in recovering fumbles by the opponent (12).

 

[theplayer11]

sounds like lots of garbage yards

 

[Spike]

I think this is a tale of two teams. Early in the season, the Patriots looked like they had a lot of issues. They lost to the Browns don't forget.

The offense suffered due to lack of production from Randy Moss. Trading him and acquiring Branch changed their offense. It also helps them match up with the Jets better. Cromartie was a good matchup to neutralize Randy Moss but he is not so good defending Branch. Basically the Jets built their team to stop the Patiriots, and so the Patriots adjusted and changed their WRs. The Patriots also have benefited a great deal from getting Logan Mankins back on the offensive line. He missed most of the year with injury and they had to reshuffle the OL to mixed results. When he came back, production across the board, in the running game and passing game, went up significantly.

On defense, the team doesn't have a defensive coordinator. Belichick has that role. They suffered a number of key injuries before the season began. They lost Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and safety Brandon McGowan to IR before week 1. It is their youngest defensive unit in 13 years, averaging just under 27 years old. Belichick spent over half the year trying players in different roles with mixed results until finally finding some things that worked and getting people comfortable with their assignments.

Overall, its a team that underwent a significant amount of transition in 2010. Arguably some of Belichick's best work to coach this squad to a 13-2 record and home field advantage, as he wore two hats.

What's also helped the defense is Brady not throwing an interception in forever. Keeps a lot of pressure off the D in several ways. They aren't stuck defending a short field off a pick, and their offensive drives are more productive in eating clock and scoring points.

Actually, he missed that time due to being a holdout.

 

[Sweet Love]

The Patriots have thrown the fewest interceptions in the league (5).

The Patriots have lost the fewest fumbles (4).The Patriots defense has the most interceptions in the league (24).

The Patriots defense is 9th in recovering fumbles by the opponent (12).

That is amazing...Sanchez had 5 INTs in one GAME last year against the Bills. I have Brady on one of my FF teams and never really noticed how few INTs he threw. Does this challenge that mark set by Griese about 8 years ago when he was with the Broncos (I believe he was 19-3)?

 

[Stillers Jr.]

sounds like lots of garbage yards

I agree with this as to the inflated "yardage against" for the Pats.Steelers game specifically...Pats up 2+ scores will let you cruise down the field...Ben had over 300 yds passing...most of it meaningless. This happens A LOT!In the 1st half, I bet their defensive stats are very different from their 2nd half (Protect the lead) defense.Pats are way better defensively that the stats would have you believe.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think this is a tale of two teams. Early in the season, the Patriots looked like they had a lot of issues. They lost to the Browns don't forget.

The offense suffered due to lack of production from Randy Moss. Trading him and acquiring Branch changed their offense. It also helps them match up with the Jets better. Cromartie was a good matchup to neutralize Randy Moss but he is not so good defending Branch. Basically the Jets built their team to stop the Patiriots, and so the Patriots adjusted and changed their WRs. The Patriots also have benefited a great deal from getting Logan Mankins back on the offensive line. He missed most of the year with injury and they had to reshuffle the OL to mixed results. When he came back, production across the board, in the running game and passing game, went up significantly.

On defense, the team doesn't have a defensive coordinator. Belichick has that role. They suffered a number of key injuries before the season began. They lost Ty Warren, Leigh Bodden, and safety Brandon McGowan to IR before week 1. It is their youngest defensive unit in 13 years, averaging just under 27 years old. Belichick spent over half the year trying players in different roles with mixed results until finally finding some things that worked and getting people comfortable with their assignments.

Overall, its a team that underwent a significant amount of transition in 2010. Arguably some of Belichick's best work to coach this squad to a 13-2 record and home field advantage, as he wore two hats.

What's also helped the defense is Brady not throwing an interception in forever. Keeps a lot of pressure off the D in several ways. They aren't stuck defending a short field off a pick, and their offensive drives are more productive in eating clock and scoring points.

I dont think its even arguable. We saw a viable playoff defense synthesized through the course of the first half of the season, and we saw an offense completely re-invent itself on the fly. Both events happened in real time for all to see. The Pats were, relatively speaking, garbage in the first half of the year. Belichick continues to outdo himself.

 

[Fensalk]

Overall, its a team that underwent a significant amount of transition in 2010. Arguably some of Belichick's best work to coach this squad to a 13-2 record and home field advantage, as he wore two hats.

I dont think its even arguable. We saw a viable playoff defense synthesized through the course of the first half of the season, and we saw an offense completely re-invent itself on the fly. Both events happened in real time for all to see. The Pats were, relatively speaking, garbage in the first half of the year. Belichick continues to outdo himself.

I would vote for Belichick for coach of the year. He was both the head coach and DC, and completely revamped and rebuilt a very young defense into a strong unit. While still being head coach. Very impressive.

 

[IHEARTFF]

sounds like lots of garbage yards

I agree with this as to the inflated "yardage against" for the Pats.Steelers game specifically...Pats up 2+ scores will let you cruise down the field...Ben had over 300 yds passing...most of it meaningless. This happens A LOT!In the 1st half, I bet their defensive stats are very different from their 2nd half (Protect the lead) defense.Pats are way better defensively that the stats would have you believe.

I would love to see a breakdown of their yardage allowed based on being behind, ahead by less than 7, more than 7, etc. I wonder if there was a lot of yardage allowed when they are ahead by more than 2 scores.Although, it seems they have run super hot on turnovers, and a poor game against a tough opponent could do them in.

 

[FUBAR]

It's a matter of discipline. BGE isn't a great back, but he never fumbles. Same with Woodhead and Taylor. In fact, none of their top 3 backs have fumbled at all this year. I can't imagine that's happened often. Add to that Brady being one of the most disciplined passers in the league, 0.8% INT% (next is Cassel at 1.2%), and what you have is a team practically devoid of superstars except Brady, but extremely well coached and disciplined.

This season, more than 07, tells me just how good BB is.

 

[DepthCharts]

Great stat DY...Would like to see home/away splits and would like to see the season in half split as well. My reason for splitting the season is the youth in NE, it has taken a few months (July - October) to get the pieces moving to the right spot for BB. I am wondering if that has been accomplished and this stat is a victim of the first half of the season. If the trend is down immensely then I would say the negative number is inflated and teams should look out for another patriot run, if it is not deflated, teams like BAL and KC could give them problems with running games, just my .02.....

 

[David Yudkin]

Overall, its a team that underwent a significant amount of transition in 2010. Arguably some of Belichick's best work to coach this squad to a 13-2 record and home field advantage, as he wore two hats.

I dont think its even arguable. We saw a viable playoff defense synthesized through the course of the first half of the season, and we saw an offense completely re-invent itself on the fly. Both events happened in real time for all to see. The Pats were, relatively speaking, garbage in the first half of the year. Belichick continues to outdo himself.

I would vote for Belichick for coach of the year. He was both the head coach and DC, and completely revamped and rebuilt a very young defense into a strong unit. While still being head coach. Very impressive.

There's also no OC either. But IMO all that is way overhyped. They have guys doing the same job as DC or OC, just without the title. It's not like BB is the only coach on the field.

 

[David Yudkin]

For whoever asked . . .

NE at home (7 games)

+84 points, -149 yards, +10 turnovers

NE on the road (8 games)

+90 points, -147 yards, +17 turnovers

 

[dickey moe]

Those are some crazy stats.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I dont think its even arguable. We saw a viable playoff defense synthesized through the course of the first half of the season, and we saw an offense completely re-invent itself on the fly. Both events happened in real time for all to see. The Pats were, relatively speaking, garbage in the first half of the year. Belichick continues to outdo himself.

uhhh....what now?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I dont think its even arguable. We saw a viable playoff defense synthesized through the course of the first half of the season, and we saw an offense completely re-invent itself on the fly. Both events happened in real time for all to see. The Pats were, relatively speaking, garbage in the first half of the year. Belichick continues to outdo himself.

uhhh....what now?

win/loss record aside, the pats looked like garbage early this year. are you forgetting beating the dolphins with special teams? are you forgetting beating the chargers when they were completely outplayed? are you forgetting how they looked against the browns and against the jets in the first game? the secondary looked like a sieve until about 6 weeks ago. the linebackers and safeties werent doing squat in the run game early on. the offense played ok, but not anything like how they are playing now. you can say the glass was half full early this season, but that wasnt my perspective as a blind homer; i thought the pats werent even gonna make the playoffs. big turnaround from early season to late season imo.

 

[kyoun1e]

As a Pats fan, I almost hope they turn the ball over three times today and Brady throws a pick. This kind of turnover margin is just unsustainable and I personally don't want a streak to end in the playoffs.

To some degree, I'd also say that NE's best defense is it's offense. Playing mistake free football and getting up big has helped a green defense all year. It's allowed BB to really execute a "bend but don't break" defensive strategy -- give up yards, minimize big plays with young secondary, then turn the screws at critical moments and create turnovers.

BB has played this brilliantly this year, but I think it's very possible for this to turn against the right opponent during the playoffs.

The two teams I don't want to see: Baltimore and Green Bay.

KY

 

[Mr. Retukes]

It's an alarming stat even for a 13-win-team, no? How many 13-game-winners have had negative net yards?

 

[kyoun1e]

It's an alarming stat even for a 13-win-team, no? How many 13-game-winners have had negative net yards?

I think it would be more alarming if this wasn't a BB coached team. I don't think any other coach could game plan around this team's defensive "reality" like he has while at the same time slowly improving that reality game by game.Also, anyone who still thinks that "defense wins championships" hasn't been paying attention to how the game has changed the last few years.Would be interested in seeing how this net yards stat looks like "first 8 games" vs. "Last 8 games."KY

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It's an alarming stat even for a 13-win-team, no? How many 13-game-winners have had negative net yards?

I think it would be more alarming if this wasn't a BB coached team. I don't think any other coach could game plan around this team's defensive "reality" like he has while at the same time slowly improving that reality game by game.Also, anyone who still thinks that "defense wins championships" hasn't been paying attention to how the game has changed the last few years.

Would be interested in seeing how this net yards stat looks like "first 8 games" vs. "Last 8 games."

KY

I'm gonna check that out right now, 'cuz you're too lazy to do it:I'll just rip some #'s off here http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2010.htm

by week....

1 - (-52)

2 - (-45)

3 - +71

4 - (-135) -- MIAMI

6 - +17

7 - (-184) -- SD

8 - (-48)

9 - (-121) -- CLE

10 - +28

11 - (-121) -- IND

12 - +41

13 - +104 -- NYJ

14 - +290 -- CHI

15 - (-120) -- GB

16 - (-21)

I think one thing of note is that their defense is probably last in the league in allowing 3rd down conversion, which tends to let teams put longer drives together and rack up more yardage.

also, as noted in my link earlier in the thread, their offensive red zone success is among the best in the league, and one td beats 2 long drives that end in fg's.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Great offensive line play, and an EXTREMELY opportunistic defense and special teams are the main reasons for the Patriots success this year. I've never seen a team with so many blowout wins where they only threw for ~150 yards. They got completely dominated by the Chargers earlier this year and still won the game fairly easily on some huge plays by the defense. And they could have won that first game against Miami without ever taking a snap on offense.

The bad news for New England is that these things don't seem entirely sustainable through the playoffs. The good news is that, while Brady has gotten WAY too much credit for New England's success this year, he's still perfectly capable of throwing the team on his back and winning a game for them if the defense/special teams/O-line faulters for a game in the playoffs.

 

[GoBirds]

How long do they play starters/key players today?