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If you were an NFL GM... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
--For every Peyton Manning taken 1.01, you have a Ryan Leaf taken 1.02
--For every Ben Rothlisomething taken in the first, you have a Tom Brady taken in the 6th.
--For every Trent Dilfer, picked in the first, that relies on a strong Defense to win games, you have a Kurt Warner, picked from the grocery store, who relies on the best WR trio in SB History (IMHO).
No matter where you pick the QB, you can find the right one for your system. You just have to hope the scouts are right.
--For every Ben Rothlisomething taken in the first, you have a Tom Brady taken in the 6th.
--For every Trent Dilfer, picked in the first, that relies on a strong Defense to win games, you have a Kurt Warner, picked from the grocery store, who relies on the best WR trio in SB History (IMHO).
No matter where you pick the QB, you can find the right one for your system. You just have to hope the scouts are right.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
This argument comes up just about every year at this time.
The reasons AGAINST are:
1. By example:
Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Tim Couch
etc....
2. The POSSIBILITY that a 2nd-7th rounder may surprise you and develop into the job. The economics show that a lower round selection has less pressure, both emotionally and financially, to perform in year one or two. Developmental time is afforded to these "projects" with little downside.
3. Free agency - a marketplace exists for QB talent unlike 10-20 years ago. Drew Brees and Daunte Culpepper would not have changed uniforms quite so easily in the 1980s or 90s.
The reasons FOR:
1. No position in the NFL is as durable as a franchise quarterback. With RBs lasting 3-4 years, GMs / FOs have to restock the cabinets at least every other year just to field a competitive backfield. Not so with a premiere QB.
2. Premiere QBs are exceptional talents, and to get one you need to pay a big price. Of course there is risk - but it is a great risk / great reward situation. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were 1/2 when they came out. There was risk choosing either, and the aftermath is clear. You can win big, but you can't win unless you play.
3. Free agency - but in a different way. Teams rebuild their franchises faster than ever in the modern NFL. Exceeding 25% of a changeover of your roster in 12 months is not rare but commonplace. Teams do not have "Five year plans" anymore - they rebuild to .500 then compete for the playoffs in Year 2, or at least that is the new blueprint ever since Jacksonville and Carolina both went deep in the playoffs as sophomore franchises. A stud QB has to be drafted to be a foundation to the franchise and a supporting cast can be put in place in record time to accelerate the growth curve.
Bottom line - Great risk, great reward. To get a franchise QB, you won't find him holding a clipboard very often. He will be at the NFL Podium in NYC in April before 2PM on a Saturday.
The reasons AGAINST are:
1. By example:
Ryan Leaf
Akili Smith
Tim Couch
etc....
2. The POSSIBILITY that a 2nd-7th rounder may surprise you and develop into the job. The economics show that a lower round selection has less pressure, both emotionally and financially, to perform in year one or two. Developmental time is afforded to these "projects" with little downside.
3. Free agency - a marketplace exists for QB talent unlike 10-20 years ago. Drew Brees and Daunte Culpepper would not have changed uniforms quite so easily in the 1980s or 90s.
The reasons FOR:
1. No position in the NFL is as durable as a franchise quarterback. With RBs lasting 3-4 years, GMs / FOs have to restock the cabinets at least every other year just to field a competitive backfield. Not so with a premiere QB.
2. Premiere QBs are exceptional talents, and to get one you need to pay a big price. Of course there is risk - but it is a great risk / great reward situation. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were 1/2 when they came out. There was risk choosing either, and the aftermath is clear. You can win big, but you can't win unless you play.
3. Free agency - but in a different way. Teams rebuild their franchises faster than ever in the modern NFL. Exceeding 25% of a changeover of your roster in 12 months is not rare but commonplace. Teams do not have "Five year plans" anymore - they rebuild to .500 then compete for the playoffs in Year 2, or at least that is the new blueprint ever since Jacksonville and Carolina both went deep in the playoffs as sophomore franchises. A stud QB has to be drafted to be a foundation to the franchise and a supporting cast can be put in place in record time to accelerate the growth curve.
Bottom line - Great risk, great reward. To get a franchise QB, you won't find him holding a clipboard very often. He will be at the NFL Podium in NYC in April before 2PM on a Saturday.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Stating would you ever makes it impossible to say anything but yes. That being said, with the money being paid you BETTER be correct. I can assure you that if there was question about arm strength I would pass. I wouldn't take any of these QB's in the top 10. But I surely would take QB's in the top 10. Finally, your comment about Schaub doesn't do you r case justice as what has he ever done to deserve a 1st round pick (what they said they wanted)
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.Why do we keep having this discussion?
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
I don't know about that. That is very hard to prove, but let's take a couple examples:1. Ryan Leaf - While he sucked and San Diego tanked soon after, they also tanked enough to get the #1 pick 3 years later and parlay that into LT/Drew Brees. They are now a decent franchise with what seems like playoff potential yearly.You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
2. Akili Smith - Damn, did he suck, but his sucking allowed them to get Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd round), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer and before Palmer's injury they looked like a lock for yearly playoff contention.
3. Cade McNown - Not as much of a bust because he wasn't a top 5 pick, but he was inadequate enough that they picked Urlacher early the next year. The Bear are also playoff contenders now as well.
4. David Carr - He could actually do well this year, but again his (and his OL) have allowed the Texans to get Reggie Bush, which could help this franchise as much as Leaf's sucking helped San Diego with LT.
5. Joey Harrington - Well there had to be at least one guy to prove your point. His sucking has unfortunately enabled the Lions to keep picking awful WRs way too early in the draft and yes, Detroit is in the toilet as a franchise.
All in all, 3 of the 5 are playoff contenders and if Bush is as good as advertised, then 4 of the 5 may be playoff contenders, so I wouldn't say drafting a QB bust is the kiss of death for a franchise. Maybe Arizona should try drafting a QB?
By the way, in the same time as these guys were drafted, Peyton Manning turned Indy into a SB contender, Vick turned Atlanta into a consistent playoff contender, McNabb turned Philly into a SB contender, Culpepper got Minny into the playoffs, Roethlisberger helped Pitt win a SB, Eli Manning helped the Giants get to the playoffs, Chad Pennington got to the playoffs before killing his shoulder, Carson Palmer got Cincy into the playoffs, and Leftwich got Jacksonville into the playoffs.
* Note that I didn't list Couch because I wasn't sure what to do with him. The Browns did make it to the playoffs with him, but he was a bust as a #1 overall pick. Unfortunately, it is a little early to judge Couch's impact because the Browns could actually be decent now. They have just had a few catastrophic injuries to some high profile draft picks.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm reluctant to get excited about the idea of horrible players "allowing" teams to draft high each year. That's not much of a privelege.I don't know about that. That is very hard to prove, but let's take a couple examples:1. Ryan Leaf - While he sucked and San Diego tanked soon after, they also tanked enough to get the #1 pick 3 years later and parlay that into LT/Drew Brees. They are now a decent franchise with what seems like playoff potential yearly.You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
2. Akili Smith - Damn, did he suck, but his sucking allowed them to get Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd round), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer and before Palmer's injury they looked like a lock for yearly playoff contention.
3. Cade McNown - Not as much of a bust because he wasn't a top 5 pick, but he was inadequate enough that they picked Urlacher early the next year. The Bear are also playoff contenders now as well.
4. David Carr - He could actually do well this year, but again his (and his OL) have allowed the Texans to get Reggie Bush, which could help this franchise as much as Leaf's sucking helped San Diego with LT.
5. Joey Harrington - Well there had to be at least one guy to prove your point. His sucking has unfortunately enabled the Lions to keep picking awful WRs way too early in the draft and yes, Detroit is in the toilet as a franchise.
All in all, 3 of the 5 are playoff contenders and if Bush is as good as advertised, then 4 of the 5 may be playoff contenders, so I wouldn't say drafting a QB bust is the kiss of death for a franchise. Maybe Arizona should try drafting a QB?
By the way, in the same time as these guys were drafted, Peyton Manning turned Indy into a SB contender, Vick turned Atlanta into a consistent playoff contender, McNabb turned Philly into a SB contender, Culpepper got Minny into the playoffs, Roethlisberger helped Pitt win a SB, Eli Manning helped the Giants get to the playoffs, Chad Pennington got to the playoffs before killing his shoulder, Carson Palmer got Cincy into the playoffs, and Leftwich got Jacksonville into the playoffs.
* Note that I didn't list Couch because I wasn't sure what to do with him. The Browns did make it to the playoffs with him, but he was a bust as a #1 overall pick. Unfortunately, it is a little early to judge Couch's impact because the Browns could actually be decent now. They have just had a few catastrophic injuries to some high profile draft picks.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
He's played a game in the NFL, the rookies haven't.Goes back to the "game appearing much faster" on the next level. He's adapted, the rooks still have learning curves.
Volek, Kitna, Schaub all have experience. Rookies are called such for a reason.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Ok, I'll agree with your first point but the other two are completely false. You do NOT find a NFL caliber qb as easily in the sixth round as you do in the first. That's part of what makes his story so exceptional. Also, the Kurt Warners of the world are also rare.
Sheesh, I'd be leary of taking a qb with a top ten pick but people here are acting like you're a lock to snag a stud by drafting any other position. It's also no small feat to grab a backup qb and turn him into a quality starter. AJ Feely anyone?
If I'm the Jets, I'd be hard pressed to pass up Leinart. It's all a crapshoot.
Agreed, not trying to say it is a privilege. I think the Chargers would rather have not selected Ryan Leaf, but had they not done that, they might not have gotten Ladanian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. That is why I looked into the teams with the bust QBs.I just wanted to point out that most of the teams that selected bust QBs are playoff contenders/been to the playoffs in the past few years. That means, that just because an early QB busts doesn't mean it is the death knoll for a franchise.I'm reluctant to get excited about the idea of horrible players "allowing" teams to draft high each year. That's not much of a privelege.I don't know about that. That is very hard to prove, but let's take a couple examples:1. Ryan Leaf - While he sucked and San Diego tanked soon after, they also tanked enough to get the #1 pick 3 years later and parlay that into LT/Drew Brees. They are now a decent franchise with what seems like playoff potential yearly.You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
2. Akili Smith - Damn, did he suck, but his sucking allowed them to get Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd round), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer and before Palmer's injury they looked like a lock for yearly playoff contention.
3. Cade McNown - Not as much of a bust because he wasn't a top 5 pick, but he was inadequate enough that they picked Urlacher early the next year. The Bear are also playoff contenders now as well.
4. David Carr - He could actually do well this year, but again his (and his OL) have allowed the Texans to get Reggie Bush, which could help this franchise as much as Leaf's sucking helped San Diego with LT.
5. Joey Harrington - Well there had to be at least one guy to prove your point. His sucking has unfortunately enabled the Lions to keep picking awful WRs way too early in the draft and yes, Detroit is in the toilet as a franchise.
All in all, 3 of the 5 are playoff contenders and if Bush is as good as advertised, then 4 of the 5 may be playoff contenders, so I wouldn't say drafting a QB bust is the kiss of death for a franchise. Maybe Arizona should try drafting a QB?
By the way, in the same time as these guys were drafted, Peyton Manning turned Indy into a SB contender, Vick turned Atlanta into a consistent playoff contender, McNabb turned Philly into a SB contender, Culpepper got Minny into the playoffs, Roethlisberger helped Pitt win a SB, Eli Manning helped the Giants get to the playoffs, Chad Pennington got to the playoffs before killing his shoulder, Carson Palmer got Cincy into the playoffs, and Leftwich got Jacksonville into the playoffs.
* Note that I didn't list Couch because I wasn't sure what to do with him. The Browns did make it to the playoffs with him, but he was a bust as a #1 overall pick. Unfortunately, it is a little early to judge Couch's impact because the Browns could actually be decent now. They have just had a few catastrophic injuries to some high profile draft picks.
It just is the death knoll if your GM is Matt Millen
and he is allowed to pick Charles Rogers at #2 overall, then Roy Williams at #7 overall and then BMW at #10, all directly after picking Harrington at #3. That is just plain sad drafting.Another potential flaw with using a SB winning QB drafted in the last 10 years in the first 10 picks as the litmus test, is assuming that any SB winning team has actually picked in the first 10 picks within the proceeding 10 years.
How many teams have NOT had a top 10 pick in any 10 year period? They could be good, but not great for a long time. I believe that the Dolphins #2 overall last year was the first top 10 pick for them since they drafted Troy Vincent at #7 overall in 1992.
How many teams have NOT had a top 10 pick in any 10 year period? They could be good, but not great for a long time. I believe that the Dolphins #2 overall last year was the first top 10 pick for them since they drafted Troy Vincent at #7 overall in 1992.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
As the person who said it kills a franchise, I probably should have clarified and said for a few years. Getting early picks after drafting a poor QB is not what you want to do, because if you miss again you will only prolong the trip to the playoffs even more. The bottom line is that the more money you have invested in poor talent the harder it is to get back to the top (this can't be argued). You could always make some great picks and have inexpensive talent but the albatross of a 50 miilion contract that you want to void makes it harder to competeAgreed, not trying to say it is a privilege. I think the Chargers would rather have not selected Ryan Leaf, but had they not done that, they might not have gotten Ladanian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. That is why I looked into the teams with the bust QBs.I just wanted to point out that most of the teams that selected bust QBs are playoff contenders/been to the playoffs in the past few years. That means, that just because an early QB busts doesn't mean it is the death knoll for a franchise.I'm reluctant to get excited about the idea of horrible players "allowing" teams to draft high each year. That's not much of a privelege.I don't know about that. That is very hard to prove, but let's take a couple examples:1. Ryan Leaf - While he sucked and San Diego tanked soon after, they also tanked enough to get the #1 pick 3 years later and parlay that into LT/Drew Brees. They are now a decent franchise with what seems like playoff potential yearly.You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
2. Akili Smith - Damn, did he suck, but his sucking allowed them to get Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd round), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer and before Palmer's injury they looked like a lock for yearly playoff contention.
3. Cade McNown - Not as much of a bust because he wasn't a top 5 pick, but he was inadequate enough that they picked Urlacher early the next year. The Bear are also playoff contenders now as well.
4. David Carr - He could actually do well this year, but again his (and his OL) have allowed the Texans to get Reggie Bush, which could help this franchise as much as Leaf's sucking helped San Diego with LT.
5. Joey Harrington - Well there had to be at least one guy to prove your point. His sucking has unfortunately enabled the Lions to keep picking awful WRs way too early in the draft and yes, Detroit is in the toilet as a franchise.
All in all, 3 of the 5 are playoff contenders and if Bush is as good as advertised, then 4 of the 5 may be playoff contenders, so I wouldn't say drafting a QB bust is the kiss of death for a franchise. Maybe Arizona should try drafting a QB?
By the way, in the same time as these guys were drafted, Peyton Manning turned Indy into a SB contender, Vick turned Atlanta into a consistent playoff contender, McNabb turned Philly into a SB contender, Culpepper got Minny into the playoffs, Roethlisberger helped Pitt win a SB, Eli Manning helped the Giants get to the playoffs, Chad Pennington got to the playoffs before killing his shoulder, Carson Palmer got Cincy into the playoffs, and Leftwich got Jacksonville into the playoffs.
* Note that I didn't list Couch because I wasn't sure what to do with him. The Browns did make it to the playoffs with him, but he was a bust as a #1 overall pick. Unfortunately, it is a little early to judge Couch's impact because the Browns could actually be decent now. They have just had a few catastrophic injuries to some high profile draft picks.
It just is the death knoll if your GM is Matt Millen
Don't worry, I agree with you. I just found it interesting that some of those teams that picked busts have become good franchises that should compete for playoff spots now.Cincy - Picked Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer after Akili Smith's flameout.As the person who said it kills a franchise, I probably should have clarified and said for a few years. Getting early picks after drafting a poor QB is not what you want to do, because if you miss again you will only prolong the trip to the playoffs even more. The bottom line is that the more money you have invested in poor talent the harder it is to get back to the top (this can't be argued). You could always make some great picks and have inexpensive talent but the albatross of a 50 miilion contract that you want to void makes it harder to competeAgreed, not trying to say it is a privilege. I think the Chargers would rather have not selected Ryan Leaf, but had they not done that, they might not have gotten Ladanian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. That is why I looked into the teams with the bust QBs.I just wanted to point out that most of the teams that selected bust QBs are playoff contenders/been to the playoffs in the past few years. That means, that just because an early QB busts doesn't mean it is the death knoll for a franchise.I'm reluctant to get excited about the idea of horrible players "allowing" teams to draft high each year. That's not much of a privelege.I don't know about that. That is very hard to prove, but let's take a couple examples:1. Ryan Leaf - While he sucked and San Diego tanked soon after, they also tanked enough to get the #1 pick 3 years later and parlay that into LT/Drew Brees. They are now a decent franchise with what seems like playoff potential yearly.You forgot to mention that when you miss and invest so much into a QB (they are the highest paid) it kills a franchise.
For every Tim Couch there is a Kijana Carter or a Leonard Davis or a David Terrell. All positions have early 1st round busts. No position is "safe" to draft, period.
I have posted in several of these threads and when I looked back, even in recent history, you would have done just as well (better IMHO) taking a QB at the top of the draft than taking a supposedly safe position like OL. Even RBs were littered with studs and busts.
One thing about QBs early in the first round is that when you hit, you usually hit it big and the team itself does very, very well. Since 1998 we have Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, and heck even Eli Manning went to the playoffs in year 2. Jacksonville went from 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 to 5-11, 9-7 and 12-4 in Leftwich's 3 years. If Rivers plays well in San Diego, then that could be another hit.
2. Akili Smith - Damn, did he suck, but his sucking allowed them to get Justin Smith, Chad Johnson (early 2nd round), Levi Jones and Carson Palmer and before Palmer's injury they looked like a lock for yearly playoff contention.
3. Cade McNown - Not as much of a bust because he wasn't a top 5 pick, but he was inadequate enough that they picked Urlacher early the next year. The Bear are also playoff contenders now as well.
4. David Carr - He could actually do well this year, but again his (and his OL) have allowed the Texans to get Reggie Bush, which could help this franchise as much as Leaf's sucking helped San Diego with LT.
5. Joey Harrington - Well there had to be at least one guy to prove your point. His sucking has unfortunately enabled the Lions to keep picking awful WRs way too early in the draft and yes, Detroit is in the toilet as a franchise.
All in all, 3 of the 5 are playoff contenders and if Bush is as good as advertised, then 4 of the 5 may be playoff contenders, so I wouldn't say drafting a QB bust is the kiss of death for a franchise. Maybe Arizona should try drafting a QB?
By the way, in the same time as these guys were drafted, Peyton Manning turned Indy into a SB contender, Vick turned Atlanta into a consistent playoff contender, McNabb turned Philly into a SB contender, Culpepper got Minny into the playoffs, Roethlisberger helped Pitt win a SB, Eli Manning helped the Giants get to the playoffs, Chad Pennington got to the playoffs before killing his shoulder, Carson Palmer got Cincy into the playoffs, and Leftwich got Jacksonville into the playoffs.
* Note that I didn't list Couch because I wasn't sure what to do with him. The Browns did make it to the playoffs with him, but he was a bust as a #1 overall pick. Unfortunately, it is a little early to judge Couch's impact because the Browns could actually be decent now. They have just had a few catastrophic injuries to some high profile draft picks.
It just is the death knoll if your GM is Matt Millen
San Diego - Picked Tomlinson and Brees (early 2nd) after Leaf's flameout.
Detroit - Picked Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams after Harrington's flameout.
Cincy and San Diego did well with they early picks and it is possible that they wouldn't have gotten those core guys if they picked in the middle of the first had Leaf and Akili done OK.
Detroit on the other hand showed how repeated bad early picks kills a franchise.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I think that the Super Bowl listing shows it best.
LHUCKS is on the right path with respect to a GM choosing a QB in the TOP 10.
Of the 10 QB's who were TOP 10 picks who won Super Bowls, the soonest that any of them won a Super Bowl was 4 years! The average is over 9 years!
To me that clearly means let someone else draft every QB available in the first round. and then wait until their first contract expires and SNATCH ONE OF THE GOOD ONES UP! Let somebody else take the risk and let them get used to the NFL.
LHUCKS is on the right path with respect to a GM choosing a QB in the TOP 10.
Of the 10 QB's who were TOP 10 picks who won Super Bowls, the soonest that any of them won a Super Bowl was 4 years! The average is over 9 years!
To me that clearly means let someone else draft every QB available in the first round. and then wait until their first contract expires and SNATCH ONE OF THE GOOD ONES UP! Let somebody else take the risk and let them get used to the NFL.
As odd as that may seem, yes.Now the thing that is going to bother you Mr. Millen is that would Joey Harrington have been a bust if you had picked Andre Johnson (or Anquan Boldin), Michael Clayton and Mark Clayton instead?You mean constantly picking players that bust is bad?
Jason Wood
Zoo York
OK, so we've thrown out the "how do other positions fare?" several times. I took a look back at the RB position and, frankly, it's even less compelling.
Since 1980, there have been 37 running backs drafted in the top 10 overall picks (this includes two supplemental picks, Mike Rozier and Bobby Humphrey). They are...Year Round Pick Player Name Team Position College
1989s 1 0 0 Bobby Humphrey Broncos RB Alabama
1984u 1 2 2 Mike Rozier Oilers RB Nebraska
2005 1 5 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers RB Auburn
2005 1 4 4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas
2005 1 2 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins RB Auburn
2001 1 5 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
2000 1 7 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia
2000 1 5 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
1999 1 5 5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
1999 1 4 4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
1998 1 9 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
1998 1 5 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
1996 1 8 8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan
1996 1 6 6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska
1995 1 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State
1994 1 2 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State
1993 1 10 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame
1993 1 3 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia
1992 1 9 9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford
1990 1 2 2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State
1989 1 9 9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State
1989 1 7 7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia
1989 1 3 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State
1987 1 4 4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn
1987 1 3 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL)
1986 1 10 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State
1986 1 1 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn
1983 1 8 8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State
1983 1 3 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State
1983 1 2 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB Southern Methodist
1982 1 10 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC
1982 1 9 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State
1982 1 7 7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford
1981 1 3 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA
1981 1 1 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina
1980 1 5 5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M
1980 1 1 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma
Of those 37 runners, only five (5) went on to win a Super Bowl. They were:
Marshall Faulk
Jerome Bettis
Jamal Lewis
Marcus Allen
Gerald RiggsOf those five, only two (2) won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Jamal Lewis -- Baltimore
Marcus Allen -- Oakland
Since 1980, there have been 37 running backs drafted in the top 10 overall picks (this includes two supplemental picks, Mike Rozier and Bobby Humphrey). They are...Year Round Pick Player Name Team Position College
1989s 1 0 0 Bobby Humphrey Broncos RB Alabama
1984u 1 2 2 Mike Rozier Oilers RB Nebraska
2005 1 5 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers RB Auburn
2005 1 4 4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas
2005 1 2 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins RB Auburn
2001 1 5 5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian
2000 1 7 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia
2000 1 5 5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee
1999 1 5 5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas
1999 1 4 4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)
1998 1 9 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
1998 1 5 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
1996 1 8 8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan
1996 1 6 6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska
1995 1 1 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State
1994 1 2 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State
1993 1 10 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame
1993 1 3 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia
1992 1 9 9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford
1990 1 2 2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State
1989 1 9 9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State
1989 1 7 7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia
1989 1 3 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State
1987 1 4 4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn
1987 1 3 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL)
1986 1 10 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State
1986 1 1 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn
1983 1 8 8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State
1983 1 3 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State
1983 1 2 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB Southern Methodist
1982 1 10 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC
1982 1 9 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State
1982 1 7 7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford
1981 1 3 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA
1981 1 1 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina
1980 1 5 5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M
1980 1 1 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma
Of those 37 runners, only five (5) went on to win a Super Bowl. They were:
Marshall Faulk
Jerome Bettis
Jamal Lewis
Marcus Allen
Gerald RiggsOf those five, only two (2) won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Jamal Lewis -- Baltimore
Marcus Allen -- Oakland
Jason Wood
Zoo York
OK, so we've thrown out the "how do other positions fare?" several times. I took a look back at the OT position and, frankly, it's also not very compelling.
Since 1980, there have been 35 offensive tackles drafted in the top 10 overall picks (this includes one supplemental pick, Mark Adickes). They are...1984u 1 5 5 Mark Adickes Chiefs T Baylor
2004 1 2 2 Robert Gallery Raiders T Iowa
2003 1 8 8 Jordan Gross Panthers T Utah
2002 1 10 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State
2002 1 7 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
2002 1 4 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas
2001 1 2 2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
2000 1 3 3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
1998 1 7 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
1997 1 6 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State
1997 1 1 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State
1996 1 10 10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn
1996 1 4 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA
1995 1 2 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC
1993 1 9 9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington
1993 1 8 8 Willie Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech
1992 1 10 10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia
1992 1 8 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford
1991 1 8 8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee
1991 1 7 7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee
1990 1 9 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M
1989 1 2 2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State
1988 1 10 10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana
1988 1 8 8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC
1988 1 4 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin
1986 1 7 7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia
1986 1 6 6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia
1985 1 9 9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana
1985 1 7 7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC
1985 1 6 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida
1985 1 2 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh
1984 1 2 2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska
1983 1 6 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh
1983 1 4 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern
1980 1 3 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC
Of those 35 tackles, only five (5) went on to win a Super Bowl. They were:
Orlando Pace
Jon Ogden
Eric Moore
Lomas Brown
Jimbo CovertOf those five, four (4) won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Orlando Pace -- St. Louis
Jon Ogden -- Baltimore
Eric Moore -- NY Giants
Jimbo Covert -- Chicago
Looking more and more like the answer isn't to avoid taking a QB in the top 10, but to AVOID HAVING TO MAKE A TOP 10 SELECTION.
Since 1980, there have been 35 offensive tackles drafted in the top 10 overall picks (this includes one supplemental pick, Mark Adickes). They are...1984u 1 5 5 Mark Adickes Chiefs T Baylor
2004 1 2 2 Robert Gallery Raiders T Iowa
2003 1 8 8 Jordan Gross Panthers T Utah
2002 1 10 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State
2002 1 7 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
2002 1 4 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas
2001 1 2 2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas
2000 1 3 3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama
1998 1 7 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State
1997 1 6 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State
1997 1 1 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State
1996 1 10 10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn
1996 1 4 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA
1995 1 2 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC
1993 1 9 9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington
1993 1 8 8 Willie Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech
1992 1 10 10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia
1992 1 8 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford
1991 1 8 8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee
1991 1 7 7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee
1990 1 9 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M
1989 1 2 2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State
1988 1 10 10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana
1988 1 8 8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC
1988 1 4 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin
1986 1 7 7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia
1986 1 6 6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia
1985 1 9 9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana
1985 1 7 7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC
1985 1 6 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida
1985 1 2 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh
1984 1 2 2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska
1983 1 6 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh
1983 1 4 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern
1980 1 3 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC
Of those 35 tackles, only five (5) went on to win a Super Bowl. They were:
Orlando Pace
Jon Ogden
Eric Moore
Lomas Brown
Jimbo CovertOf those five, four (4) won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them:
Orlando Pace -- St. Louis
Jon Ogden -- Baltimore
Eric Moore -- NY Giants
Jimbo Covert -- Chicago
Looking more and more like the answer isn't to avoid taking a QB in the top 10, but to AVOID HAVING TO MAKE A TOP 10 SELECTION. 
The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I like this site, Football Outsiders. I like the approach and think it provides a revolutionary type of approach from what you commonly see. However, the difficult navigation and complexity of formulas has kept it as only a bookmark for me instead of a site I'd really get into. And this is from a guy who scored a 700 out of 800 on his Math SAT some 15 years ago. I just get there, get real interested, and end up leaving 20-30 minutes later until I somehow (like this time with your link) end up there again, get interested, and wash, rinse, repeat. I'm back now again. BTW, Jonathan Wells shows up as a pretty good back.The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I think one thing we might be learning from this is Not all NFL front offices are created equal."
TLEF316
Footballguy
i think a true franchise QB(manning, palmer, Ben) is worth what ever pick you have to spend on him. the problem is, sometimes guys look like franchise qbs and suck (leaf) or the top Qb in a class has his value inflated due to it being a poor year at a position(alex smith)
next year, If the jets have a top pick, ill be at the draft screaming for them to take Brady Quinn.
next year, If the jets have a top pick, ill be at the draft screaming for them to take Brady Quinn.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
abrecher,I think that you are on to something here. Especially given the $ which is spent to speculate whether a guy can play or not. I am not sure, but has there been a team in the past 10 years who has traded away each of their 1st round picks for later picks or proven players? Or a majority of them?
I do however believe that there are positional differences for how quickly a player can come-up-to-speed and contribute effectively in the NFL. This is of course subjective, but I would rank the positions into the following tiers [easiest to hardest].
1st Tier
============
Kicker
Running Back
Defensive End
2nd Tier
============
Linebacker
Defensive Tackle
Safety
3rd Tier
============
Tight End
Offensive Tackle
Offensive Guard
Center
4th Tier
============
Cornerback
Wide Receiver
Quarterback
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Another part of this puzzle is that the GM is interested in the bottom line for the corporation [$]; whether or not Michael Vick is a Top 5 QB, whether or not they win most of their game, or whether or not he leads them to a Super Bowl victory.
Can you argue against taking him from a financial perspective?
I would venture to say that he has changed how Falcon fans view football. He has changed how the Falcons can get alternate forms of income and he surely must have made a postive impact on the Falcon bottom line.
Can you argue against taking him from a financial perspective?
I would venture to say that he has changed how Falcon fans view football. He has changed how the Falcons can get alternate forms of income and he surely must have made a postive impact on the Falcon bottom line.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
-- Chicago
Looking more and more like the answer isn't to avoid taking a QB in the top 10, but to AVOID HAVING TO MAKE A TOP 10 SELECTION.
See now you are getting to a point i have made on many occasions. If you can pick up a bunch of 2nd round picks, it is worth doing so because you can get inexpensive good players. Not only that, you will have the money free'd up so that you can spend it on PROVEN talent as a free agent. That is the way i would run my franchise because if you miss on that early pick...ouch
Looking more and more like the answer isn't to avoid taking a QB in the top 10, but to AVOID HAVING TO MAKE A TOP 10 SELECTION. See now you are getting to a point i have made on many occasions. If you can pick up a bunch of 2nd round picks, it is worth doing so because you can get inexpensive good players. Not only that, you will have the money free'd up so that you can spend it on PROVEN talent as a free agent. That is the way i would run my franchise because if you miss on that early pick...ouch
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Considering a team can't pick and choose a QB they deem as a franchise QB that scenario isn't a common mode of gaining a QB. So if just looking at the NFL draft and QBs why would a GM take a QB in the top ten?40 SBs have been played.
80 QB SB starts.
40 QB starts were made by first round QBs
28 of the 40 first round QBs started for the teams that drafted them (I include Elway as being drafted by the Broncos as he never played a down for the Colts who drafted him then traded him to Denver soon thereafter)
22 of the 28 first round QBs who started SBs were selected within the top ten picks of the NFL draft, by the teams that selected them.
15 of the 22 first round QBs who started SBs were taken within the first three picks by the teams that selected them.
First QB drafted that played in a SB was Johnny Unitis in 1955
793 QBs have been drafted since 1955.
108 QBs of those were taken in the first round.
793 - 108 = 685 QBs taken after the first round.
Of the 80 QB starts, half were from first round QBs leaving 40
685 / 40 = a 1 in 17.125 chance a QB taken after the first round will start a typical SB.
108 / 40 = a 1 in 2.7 chance a QB taken in the first round will start a typical SB.
If a team were to take a QB in the first round every year they would have to use three continuous first round picks to have the BEST CHANCE to find a SB starting QB.
NFL draft is 7 rounds long with 6 rounds after the first round or 6 chances per year therefore a team would need 3 NFL drafts using ALL picks after the first round to give them an equal BEST CHANCE to find a SB QB after the first round.
Professional NFL personnel executives/scouts/coaches/etc that target QBs high in the draft are getting SB caliber QBs with far greater success than those who eschew targeting the top prospects, i.e., top ten QBs.
So to answer your question of why any NFL GM would take a guy in the top ten who would take a year to develop?
No reason, mabye they just like wearing Super Bowl rings.
