Ignore Bye Weeks? (1 Viewer)

[Maven]

Taken from the Fanball magazine...

"Many studies have been done on this subject, but the most logical and in-depth work on bye-week strategy was done by Greg Alan of Pieracle Inc. He wrote a small but effective program to simulate 50,000 eight week NFL season.

Alan used a starting lineup that consisted of eight players. Each team drafted 16 players (eight starters and eight reserves), with all of the starters averaging 20 points/game, with scores varying from 15 to 25 each week. The reserves averaged 12 points/game, with scores varying from seven to 17 each week. The teams always play their starters, unless the starter is on bye. When the starer is on bye week, a reserve is inserted into the starting lineup.

Team A had only one player on bye each week of the virtual season.
Team B had two starters on bye for four weeks of the virtual season.
Team C ignored the bye week with all of his players on bye at the same time (one week)

SO , AFTER 50,000 SEASONS, WHICH TEAM DID BEST?

As it turns out, Team C was an easy winner with 501,247 victories. Team B recorded 361, 972 wins, and Team A came in last with 336,781 wins.

We aren't suggesting you draft players based on bye weeks, and we aren't suggesting that you completely ignore the situation either. We are simply pointing out that passing n a guy because it will give you two players with the same bye isn't sound."

 

[bentley]

It was nice of you to share this story from another magazine, but what is your point"? Do you agree or disagree, or are you just publicizing the other magazine ? Just posting an article might be more appropriate for the "Assistant Coach" forum...

This forum wasn't created as a mechanism for promoting FBGs magazine, so this is a valid point. Every year, people have discussions about whether to focus on bye weeks. Here's a study that looks at the effect. Not sure what your problem is here, junior.

 

[Maven]

It was nice of you to share this story from another magazine, but what is your point"? Do you agree or disagree, or are you just publicizing the other magazine ? Just posting an article might be more appropriate for the "Assistant Coach" forum...

This forum wasn't created as a mechanism for promoting FBGs magazine, so this is a valid point. Every year, people have discussions about whether to focus on bye weeks. Here's a study that looks at the effect. Not sure what your problem is here, junior.

Not sure why you would refer to me as Junior, but, I didn't say this forum was a mechanism for promoting FBSs magazine...I just wasn't sure what the point of the post was...I realize BYE Weeks are an annual discussion. The conclusion of the article is a non-conclusion, IMHO:

We aren't suggesting you draft players based on bye weeks, and we aren't suggesting that you completely ignore the situation either. We are simply pointing out that passing n a guy because it will give you two players with the same bye isn't sound."

How this post different from someone referencing fantasy news or articles from other websites? What are their intentions?

 

[awesomeness]

Sounds reasonable enough. The only time bye weeks come into account is for when there are two guys at the same position who you rank on the same tier and have no preference for either guy imo.

 

[Catbird]

Annual discussion topic, perhaps discused too death before my time, but the study over a good (although staged) sample seems to say that we should probably just pick the best player regardless of bye weeks, or at least that we shouldn't take even a slightly lesser player to avoid multiple byes in a single week.

I'm not sure it suggests that we don't still pick backup QBs with different bye weeks than our starter, but its food for thought and seems like legit Pool discussion?

 

[yetiknight]

I think you should ignore bye weeks completely. Even when selecting a backup. I passed on Braylon Edwards last year due to his bye week. I ended up with Reggie Brown. The guy that drafted Marvin Harrison also drafted Braylon. He won it all.

The butterfly effect of ignoring projections for the sake of one week during the season.

 

[Marc Levin]

It was nice of you to share this story from another magazine, but what is your point"? Do you agree or disagree, or are you just publicizing the other magazine ? Just posting an article might be more appropriate for the "Assistant Coach" forum...

This forum wasn't created as a mechanism for promoting FBGs magazine, so this is a valid point. Every year, people have discussions about whether to focus on bye weeks. Here's a study that looks at the effect. Not sure what your problem is here, junior.

Not sure why you would refer to me as Junior, but, I didn't say this forum was a mechanism for promoting FBSs magazine...I just wasn't sure what the point of the post was...I realize BYE Weeks are an annual discussion. The conclusion of the article is a non-conclusion, IMHO:

We aren't suggesting you draft players based on bye weeks, and we aren't suggesting that you completely ignore the situation either. We are simply pointing out that passing n a guy because it will give you two players with the same bye isn't sound."

How this post different from someone referencing fantasy news or articles from other websites? What are their intentions?

There isn't one. Thanks for posting this, Maven, it is valid content and a good jumping off point for the discussion,bubba, we appreciate your intent, but please allow the staff to moderate content. If you find something offensive/wrong, please use the report function and we will take a look.

Thanks!

 

[pollardsvision]

personally, i'd love to have a team one of these years in which the entire starting lineup had a bye the same week. 12 weeks of bye-free fantasy football would likely be worth one probable loss.

obviously, i'd never seek that out, as i assume the general concensus is, bye-weeks make for a dead heat tie breaker and that's about it. something to pay attention to to prevent a major situation, but that's about it.

 

[BigRed]

I think you should ignore bye weeks completely.

Not quite. eg drafting 2 QBs w/the same bye isn't too wise, esp when you likely had another backup avail of comparable value w/ a diff bye. Now you have to pray you can pull off a trade (from a position of weakness, which the potential trader probably knows if you're in a league w/owners who have a clue) or pick up some schlep who is very likely worse than the backup you drafted. Those situations are few though, and mostly yeah I do ignore bye weeks.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think you should ignore bye weeks completely.

Not quite. eg drafting 2 QBs w/the same bye isn't too wise, esp when you likely had another backup avail of comparable value w/ a diff bye. Now you have to pray you can pull off a trade (from a position of weakness, which the potential trader probably knows if you're in a league w/owners who have a clue) or pick up some schlep who is very likely worse than the backup you drafted. Those situations are few though, and mostly yeah I do ignore bye weeks.

This is how I approach it as well. I simply ignore bye weeks until I have to backup my QB and/or TE and/or K and/or D. RBs and WRs I simply don't care. So much changes between the draft and week 4 and beyond that it is simply not worth worrying about on draft day (unless you are in a survivor league of course)

 

[joey]

I just tried to make a good All Bye Week 8 Team and came up with something decent from the

2 slot in a 12 team draft...

1.2 A Peterson

2.11 Andre Johnson

3.2 TJ Housh or Chad Johnson

4.11 T Forte

5.2 Rudi Johnson (guess I didn't have to go both RB2 and RB3 with bye week of 8 but what the heck...)

6.11 D Driver

7.2 J Culter

(I'm not in a te-mandatory league, so didn't bother with that)

probably could make a decent All Bye Week 9 Team drafting from the 1 slot of a 12 team league

starting with

1.1 LT

2.12/3.1 any 2 of Brees, Steve Smith, Reggie Bush or Colston,

4.12/5.1 Jonathan Stewart and...

ok. I ran out of steam

 

[Captain Hook]

Annual discussion topic, perhaps discused too death before my time, but the study over a good (although staged) sample seems to say that we should probably just pick the best player regardless of bye weeks, or at least that we shouldn't take even a slightly lesser player to avoid multiple byes in a single week.

Actually I think Greg's study (now published annually on his site) goes far beyond that - Option C doesn't say ignore bye weeks, it goes FAR beyond that saying that the best strategy is to have ALL your starters on bye the same week - yeah you lose that week, but you gain against all teams you play in the other bye weeks when you are at FULL strength and they have some players on vacation.I did a follow up article on this on another site years ago which I will try and find and add to the discussion here. It did reference what "joey" stated above, but one of my conclusions was that it is VERY difficult if not impossible to assemble a better team with the same bye week than you could DRAFT without that consideration. Where it does come into play is in Auction Leagues where you can control players better. It also works far better in leagues with shorter regular seasons.