I'm taking Peyton Manning in the 4th spot (1 Viewer)

[kyinaz]

I think the RB parity after the big 3 will increase the RB value picks in rounds 2-5 and that this is the best year to take Manning early, especially in a 6 pt/pass TD league, but I would even consider it in a 4pt/TD league. This is also a non-ppr league, which also keeps things fairly even amongst the RB sludge.

Just wondering if anyone else thinks they can build a solid team taking Peyton this early. I've never drafted a QB in the first round, so I think it'll be a fun challenge for my redraft this year. I can usually find value at WR in the mid-rounds (picked Driver, Chambers and Galloway last year) so I'm really only worried about the potential lack of RB depth. Without Edge, I say Peyton tosses 35-40 TD this year, maybe more.

Anybody already drafted and taken Peyton early in the 1st...care to share how the rest of your draft went....

 

[Marc Levin]

Umm.

No.

I have NEVER had a decent team after taking a QB in the first. And you get manning at absolutely ZERO value.

 

[Chaka]

Umm.No.I have NEVER had a decent team after taking a QB in the first. And you get manning at absolutely ZERO value.

Sometimes it's okay to take a player at the spot where he is actually expected to perform.Should I not draft LJ #1 overall because he has ZERO value at that spot?Not everyone slips below their value because those players happen to be the very best at their respective positions. This year I see four of those players LJ, LT, SA and Peyton.

 

[junk17]

I just took Peyton 5th in my redraft league which awards 6 pts for all TD's and is non ppr! I didnt like many of the other choices at RB that was left so I decided to roll the dice on Peyton!

My team...

Manning/Simms

McGahee/Droughns/F.Taylor/T.Bell/W.Lundy

Wayne/Roy Williams/D.Bennett/Mi.Clayton/C.Wilson

Kasay

Pit

I was very suprised Droughns fell to me in the 4th while McGahee fell to 2.08. Took Wayne in the third, grabbed Taylor in the 6th! I am pretty happy..... I really dont think you can kill yourself taking Manning first this year if you are picking in the middle. Best thing is to obviously KNOW your league and owners and tendancies!!!

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I just took Peyton 5th in my redraft league which awards 6 pts for all TD's and is non ppr! I didnt like many of the other choices at RB that was left so I decided to roll the dice on Peyton!My team...Manning/SimmsMcGahee/Droughns/F.Taylor/T.Bell/W.LundyWayne/Roy Williams/D.Bennett/Mi.Clayton/C.WilsonKasayPitI was very suprised Droughns fell to me in the 4th while McGahee fell to 2.08. Took Wayne in the third, grabbed Taylor in the 6th! I am pretty happy..... I really dont think you can kill yourself taking Manning first this year if you are picking in the middle. Best thing is to obviously KNOW your league and owners and tendancies!!!

 

[PsychoMan]

in a 12 team or larger i would definitely take rudi / tiki over manning. you can probably get away with this in a 10 teamer though ...

 

[Spiderman]

I think when you're choosing between Manning, and an unknown RB like Jackson/Brown, I can't really fault somebody for taking the sure thing. Manning is going to be a top 5 fantasy value, although as Marc points out above, it's not a good value pick.

 

[JMJ]

In an 8 team league you can.

In a 10 team league you're pushing it.

In a 12 team league I think that both Tiki and Rudi NEED to go before Peyton.

JMHO.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I thought someone was bumping a thread from last year. Sadly, no...

 

[Alias]

I thought someone was bumping a thread from last year. Sadly, no...

It was the wrong thing to do last year.It is the wrong thing to do this year.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's not just value - it's what you can build to compete with the guys picking around you.

The guy picking #5 can take Tiki and have a better RB than your RB1 in the 2nd - he THEN waits 3 or 4 more rounds and adds the QB2.

There is no way Manning will outscore the QB2 by enough points to make it worth taking manning 4th overall.

Besides, the most recent ADP info has Manning as the 12th overall player - up from the #14. There's even a chance - however slight - you would get Manning at 2.09.

In short, those possiobilities = POOR drafting

By the reasoning I am seeing here to defend picking Manning #4 overall, the same rationale tells you to take Gates in the first round, too. If those two moves make sense to you, then ignore my posts here.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I thought someone was bumping a thread from last year. Sadly, no...

It was the wrong thing to do last year.It is the wrong thing to do this year.

FWIW, I think Manning has a good chance of being better value this year, if for no other reason than the Colts will have to play all 16 games.In addition, replacing Edge will be hard with their current roster. Manning will throw more than he has been. Still not coming close to 49 TDs though.

 

[ShadowMaster]

I would say that it depends on the level of competition involved.

The DD had Manning at 5 overall (4 pt/TD heavy) in my recent guppy draft and I was giving him SERIOUS thought in the 4 slot.

To my good fortune, he went 2nd overall and I got LT2 at 4. Since it's a guppy league, I did not take another RB UNTIL the 6th and 7th! (Gore and M.Bell respectively) I could have started with Manning and still done fine with the RBs that came my way late as I added Ahman in round 8 and handcuffed T.Bell somewhere after.

 

[Chaka]

It's not just value - it's what you can build to compete with the guys picking around you.

The guy picking #5 can take Tiki and have a better RB than your RB1 in the 2nd - he THEN waits 3 or 4 more rounds and adds the QB2.

There is no way Manning will outscore the QB2 by enough points to make it worth taking manning 4th overall.

Besides, the most recent ADP info has Manning as the 12th overall player - up from the #14. There's even a chance - however slight - you would get Manning at 2.09.

In short, those possiobilities = POOR drafting

By the reasoning I am seeing here to defend picking Manning #4 overall, the same rationale tells you to take Gates in the first round, too. If those two moves make sense to you, then ignore my posts here.

There is no way I agree with this statement. Manning has proven capable of throwing 49 TDs, the most in NFL history and you have to go back to 1999 to find a QB who even topped 40. He actually has the potential to throw up to 20 more TDs than the #2 QB. I think the realistic maximum TD total for the #2 QB is 32. He is also the only QB that is even close to a mortal lock for 4,000+ passing yards. If you think Manning is capable of throwing 40+ then his value, and the security he provides at the position makes him a decent enough pick anywhere in the first round...okay anywhere outside of the top 3.

 

[arrow1]

I think the RB parity after the big 3 will increase the RB value picks in rounds 2-5 and that this is the best year to take Manning early, especially in a 6 pt/pass TD league, but I would even consider it in a 4pt/TD league. This is also a non-ppr league, which also keeps things fairly even amongst the RB sludge. Just wondering if anyone else thinks they can build a solid team taking Peyton this early. I've never drafted a QB in the first round, so I think it'll be a fun challenge for my redraft this year. I can usually find value at WR in the mid-rounds (picked Driver, Chambers and Galloway last year) so I'm really only worried about the potential lack of RB depth. Without Edge, I say Peyton tosses 35-40 TD this year, maybe more.Anybody already drafted and taken Peyton early in the 1st...care to share how the rest of your draft went....

<----guppy

 

[kyinaz]

Thanks for posting your team.You did well, imo. You got two solid backs in a non-ppr format and your backup RBs are damn solid. Good job with WR picks, too. I hope to be so fortunate.My problem is that I don't know anyone else in the league. McGahee and Droughns are two of the backs I thought might fall to me.

I just took Peyton 5th in my redraft league which awards 6 pts for all TD's and is non ppr! I didnt like many of the other choices at RB that was left so I decided to roll the dice on Peyton!My team...Manning/SimmsMcGahee/Droughns/F.Taylor/T.Bell/W.LundyWayne/Roy Williams/D.Bennett/Mi.Clayton/C.WilsonKasayPitI was very suprised Droughns fell to me in the 4th while McGahee fell to 2.08. Took Wayne in the third, grabbed Taylor in the 6th! I am pretty happy..... I really dont think you can kill yourself taking Manning first this year if you are picking in the middle. Best thing is to obviously KNOW your league and owners and tendancies!!!

 

[Z-Dog]

In an 8 team league you can.

In a 10 team league you're pushing it.

In a 12 team league I think that both Tiki and Rudi NEEDs to go before Peyton.

JMHO.

Fixed.

 

[cobalt_27]

I think when you're choosing between Manning, and an unknown RB like Jackson/Brown, I can't really fault somebody for taking the sure thing. Manning is going to be a top 5 fantasy value, although as Marc points out above, it's not a good value pick.

Yeah, but technically, who is? There's no value at five. It's a stab in the dark for any RB. I see no problem going with the sure thing at QB, especially when all others below Manning have HUGE question marks.

 

[kyinaz]

This guppy won his dynasty league last year, so I certainly recognize when I should shut-up and listen.Thanks so much for your valueable insight.

<----guppy

 

[kyinaz]

It's not just value - it's what you can build to compete with the guys picking around you.

The guy picking #5 can take Tiki and have a better RB than your RB1 in the 2nd - he THEN waits 3 or 4 more rounds and adds the QB2.

There is no way Manning will outscore the QB2 by enough points to make it worth taking manning 4th overall.

Besides, the most recent ADP info has Manning as the 12th overall player - up from the #14. There's even a chance - however slight - you would get Manning at 2.09.

In short, those possiobilities = POOR drafting

By the reasoning I am seeing here to defend picking Manning #4 overall, the same rationale tells you to take Gates in the first round, too. If those two moves make sense to you, then ignore my posts here.

There is no way I agree with this statement. Manning has proven capable of throwing 49 TDs, the most in NFL history and you have to go back to 1999 to find a QB who even topped 40. He actually has the potential to throw up to 20 more TDs than the #2 QB. I think the realistic maximum TD total for the #2 QB is 32. He is also the only QB that is even close to a mortal lock for 4,000+ passing yards. If you think Manning is capable of throwing 40+ then his value, and the security he provides at the position makes him a decent enough pick anywhere in the first round...okay anywhere outside of the top 3.

I completely agree Chaka. Manning is the only QB that can put that kinda distance between his final stats and those of the 2nd best at that position.

 

[kyinaz]

I think when you're choosing between Manning, and an unknown RB like Jackson/Brown, I can't really fault somebody for taking the sure thing. Manning is going to be a top 5 fantasy value, although as Marc points out above, it's not a good value pick.

Yeah, but technically, who is? There's no value at five. It's a stab in the dark for any RB. I see no problem going with the sure thing at QB, especially when all others below Manning have HUGE question marks.

Normally, I would not consider taking Manning with the 4th but it really is a stab in the dark at RB after the big 3, imo. In my mind, Gore or McGahee or countless others have as good a chance to finish top ten this year as Tiki or Rudy. I own Tiki in my dynasty league and he was a big reason I won it last year, but I think his TDs will be few and far between this year. He'll make 4-5 great TD runs from beyond 20 but that might be it. Jacobs has been impressive. I'm just not impressed with Ronnie Brown. He's avg, at best. I follow SEC football is Brown is < Caddy talentwise. The draft is tonight, so I gotta make up my mind sooner rather than later. Thanks for all the input guys.

 

[LordHusker]

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses.

I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.

If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:

01.05 Peyton Manning

05.05 Reggie Bush

06.06 DeShaun Foster

07.05 Jamal Lewis

08.06 Dominic Rhodes

09.05 Thomas Jones

02.06 Torry Holt

04.06 Reggie Wayne

10.06 Terry Glenn

03.05 Antonio Gates

11.05 Shayne Graham

12.06 Miami

Edited to fix starters required in starting lineup.

 

[John Mamula]

Manning has never even finished as QB1, and people want to draft him fifth overall?

Interesting.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

My 10-team 6pt all TD's PPR IDP league, the owner with the 6th overall took Manning. He ended up with the following:

Brees, Drew NOS QB - 7

Manning, Peyton IND QB - 6

Bush, Reggie NOS RB - 7

McAllister, Deuce NOS RB - 7

Rhodes, Dominic IND RB - 6

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB - 9

Clayton, Michael TBB WR - 4

Driver, Donald GBP WR - 6

Jackson, Darrell SEA WR - 5

Jones, Matt JAC WR - 6

Williamson, Troy MIN WR - 6

Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE - 6

Smith, L.J. PHI TE - 9

Kaeding, Nate SDC PK - 3

Stover, Matt BAL PK - 7

Abraham, John ATL DE - 5

James, Erasmus MIN DE - 6

Arrington, Lavar NYG LB - 4

Lewis, Ray BAL LB - 7

Chavous, Corey STL S - 7

Sharper, Darren MIN S

 

[cobalt_27]

I think when you're choosing between Manning, and an unknown RB like Jackson/Brown, I can't really fault somebody for taking the sure thing. Manning is going to be a top 5 fantasy value, although as Marc points out above, it's not a good value pick.

Yeah, but technically, who is? There's no value at five. It's a stab in the dark for any RB. I see no problem going with the sure thing at QB, especially when all others below Manning have HUGE question marks.

Normally, I would not consider taking Manning with the 4th but it really is a stab in the dark at RB after the big 3, imo. In my mind, Gore or McGahee or countless others have as good a chance to finish top ten this year as Tiki or Rudy. I own Tiki in my dynasty league and he was a big reason I won it last year, but I think his TDs will be few and far between this year. He'll make 4-5 great TD runs from beyond 20 but that might be it. Jacobs has been impressive. I'm just not impressed with Ronnie Brown. He's avg, at best. I follow SEC football is Brown is < Caddy talentwise. The draft is tonight, so I gotta make up my mind sooner rather than later. Thanks for all the input guys.

And, again, even if you take Tiki or Rudi or whomever...there's no VALUE with that pick. As you intimated, you could get Kevin Jones on the turn and THAT might have value because he could outproduce both those guys. I'm more convinced that Peyton's going to outproduce any other QB this year than I am your #4/5 RB outproducing his peers picked later.As for Peyton never finishing #1, that's based on 4pt TD leagues, and I'd like to know how many times he's finished out of the top-2 or top-3. What other player at his position has had the track record of top-3 finishes, consistently year-in-year-out as Peyton has had? Other than Shaun or LT, there's nobody that has been this productive CONSISTENTLY every year. So, at 4, with all the ?-marks at RB and with the likes of all those guys pretty-much looking the same through #10-12, I don't have a problem taking Peyton at #4 or #5.

But, of course, I'm the same one harping about how stupid many of you and your league rules are set so that you value a #10-15 RB over one of the greatest QBs (and fantasy QBs) of all time. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense to construct your league that way.

Take Manning. It's a fine pick for winning your league this year, and more importantly, for changing the stupid culture of this RB-dominant mindset that has infested FF over the years.

 

[Chaka]

Manning has never even finished as QB1, and people want to draft him fifth overall?Interesting.

I hate when people bring this up as some sort of knock. LT has never been the #1 RB should he not be discussed with SA or LJ (who hasn't finished #1 yet either)?In Manning's 8 year NFL career he has finished:Top 5 in pass attempts 5 times, top 3 3 times.Top 5 in completions 7 times, top 3 6 times (#1 twice)Top 3 in passing yards 7 times, (#1 twice)Top 5 in passing TDs 8 times, top 3 6 times, top 2 5 times and #1 twice.He may or may not finish #1 this year but I would be willing to wager far more on him finishing #1 at QB than any RB finishing as the #1 RB.His upside is just as big as any of the competition at any other position, as is his potential value over the #2 at his position. And he has the absolute least downside of any other player in football.

 

[cobalt_27]

Manning has never even finished as QB1, and people want to draft him fifth overall?Interesting.

I hate when people bring this up as some sort of knock. LT has never been the #1 RB should he not be discussed with SA or LJ (who hasn't finished #1 yet either)?In Manning's 8 year NFL career he has finished:Top 5 in pass attempts 5 times, top 3 3 times.Top 5 in completions 7 times, top 3 6 times (#1 twice)Top 3 in passing yards 7 times, (#1 twice)Top 5 in passing TDs 8 times, top 3 6 times, top 2 5 times and #1 twice.He may or may not finish #1 this year but I would be willing to wager far more on him finishing #1 at QB than any RB finishing as the #1 RB.His upside is just as big as any of the competition at any other position, as is his potential value over the #2 at his position. And he has the absolute least downside of any other player in football.

EEEGGXACTLY!

 

[arrow1]

This guppy won his dynasty league last year, so I certainly recognize when I should shut-up and listen.Thanks so much for your valueable insight.

<----guppy

Anytime...............

 

[kyinaz]

Thanks for the comment. Very nice draft. I wouldn't even be asking this about a 10 teamer since I think it's fairly easy to draft a solid team in a 10-teamer from any position, if you're a good drafter. My question was referring to 12-team league. Also, I'm talking about the 4th pick, which not everyone considers a middle-round pick; it's certainly on the cusp and a little more dangerous since you have to wait two more slots between picks.

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses. I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 K.If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:01.05 Peyton Manning05.05 Reggie Bush06.06 DeShaun Foster07.05 Jamal Lewis08.06 Dominic Rhodes09.05 Thomas Jones02.06 Torry Holt04.06 Reggie Wayne10.06 Terry Glenn03.05 Antonio Gates11.05 Shayne Graham12.06 Miami

 

[LordHusker]

Sorry. For some reason, I had it in my head that you were in a 10-team league. In a 12-teamer, I still think taking Peyton Manning after the Big Three is a totally viable option. You absolutely can recover. I'll tell you this: You're a lot safer with him than you are any of the RBs beginning with No. 4. I'm not as wild about Tiki as FBGs is, and I also have worries about all the other RBs. Except Rudi. But Rudi is a very boring first-round pick at that draft slot. TAKE MANNING!

 

[John Mamula]

Manning has never even finished as QB1, and people want to draft him fifth overall?Interesting.

I hate when people bring this up as some sort of knock. LT has never been the #1 RB should he not be discussed with SA or LJ (who hasn't finished #1 yet either)?In Manning's 8 year NFL career he has finished:Top 5 in pass attempts 5 times, top 3 3 times.Top 5 in completions 7 times, top 3 6 times (#1 twice)Top 3 in passing yards 7 times, (#1 twice)Top 5 in passing TDs 8 times, top 3 6 times, top 2 5 times and #1 twice.He may or may not finish #1 this year but I would be willing to wager far more on him finishing #1 at QB than any RB finishing as the #1 RB.His upside is just as big as any of the competition at any other position, as is his potential value over the #2 at his position. And he has the absolute least downside of any other player in football.

The flaw in your logic is that the other RBs who also have a chance at being #1 will be taken in the 1st round. The next QB isn't taken until round 4. Thus, it is more likely than not that a 4th round QB or later will outperform your 4th overall pick.That is just bad drafting. If you can't find better value at the 4 hole than Manning, I'm not sure there is anything I can do for you.

 

[kyinaz]

Well said, Cobalt. I agree with your comment completely. On the other hand, it's been proven that it's easy for even novices to build an avg to above avg team with a stud RB anchoring their team, but there are fewer clear-cut studs at the position this year. I will be taking Manning unless one the big 3 miraculously falls to me. It'll be interesting, if nothing else. Hopefully, some serviceable running backs will fall to me in rounds 2 and 3 or beyond. A good drafter realizes that all drafts are different and since I don't know anyone in this league, I'll just have to adjust on the fly and that's a helluva lot more fun than just taking a couple mediocre backs in rds 1 and 2 because its the "right" thing to do. #### the status quo.

Besides, this is just a redraft I do for fun. The dynasty is my money league. Thanks again for all the feedback.

I think when you're choosing between Manning, and an unknown RB like Jackson/Brown, I can't really fault somebody for taking the sure thing. Manning is going to be a top 5 fantasy value, although as Marc points out above, it's not a good value pick.

Yeah, but technically, who is? There's no value at five. It's a stab in the dark for any RB. I see no problem going with the sure thing at QB, especially when all others below Manning have HUGE question marks.

Normally, I would not consider taking Manning with the 4th but it really is a stab in the dark at RB after the big 3, imo. In my mind, Gore or McGahee or countless others have as good a chance to finish top ten this year as Tiki or Rudy. I own Tiki in my dynasty league and he was a big reason I won it last year, but I think his TDs will be few and far between this year. He'll make 4-5 great TD runs from beyond 20 but that might be it. Jacobs has been impressive. I'm just not impressed with Ronnie Brown. He's avg, at best. I follow SEC football is Brown is < Caddy talentwise. The draft is tonight, so I gotta make up my mind sooner rather than later. Thanks for all the input guys.

And, again, even if you take Tiki or Rudi or whomever...there's no VALUE with that pick. As you intimated, you could get Kevin Jones on the turn and THAT might have value because he could outproduce both those guys. I'm more convinced that Peyton's going to outproduce any other QB this year than I am your #4/5 RB outproducing his peers picked later.As for Peyton never finishing #1, that's based on 4pt TD leagues, and I'd like to know how many times he's finished out of the top-2 or top-3. What other player at his position has had the track record of top-3 finishes, consistently year-in-year-out as Peyton has had? Other than Shaun or LT, there's nobody that has been this productive CONSISTENTLY every year. So, at 4, with all the ?-marks at RB and with the likes of all those guys pretty-much looking the same through #10-12, I don't have a problem taking Peyton at #4 or #5.

But, of course, I'm the same one harping about how stupid many of you and your league rules are set so that you value a #10-15 RB over one of the greatest QBs (and fantasy QBs) of all time. Yeah, that makes a ton of sense to construct your league that way.

Take Manning. It's a fine pick for winning your league this year, and more importantly, for changing the stupid culture of this RB-dominant mindset that has infested FF over the years.

 

[Sweetness_34]

What you should do is simply take Carson Palmer in the 3rd or 4th round and get a Brett Favre or Kurt Warner later to cover Palmer's 1st few weeks absence concern.

Palmer will land up with as many PPG as Peyton, so why waste an early pick on a Qb. And the injury is not going to be an issue. See for yourself tonight in the MNF game.

 

[Chaka]

Manning has never even finished as QB1, and people want to draft him fifth overall?Interesting.

I hate when people bring this up as some sort of knock. LT has never been the #1 RB should he not be discussed with SA or LJ (who hasn't finished #1 yet either)?In Manning's 8 year NFL career he has finished:Top 5 in pass attempts 5 times, top 3 3 times.Top 5 in completions 7 times, top 3 6 times (#1 twice)Top 3 in passing yards 7 times, (#1 twice)Top 5 in passing TDs 8 times, top 3 6 times, top 2 5 times and #1 twice.He may or may not finish #1 this year but I would be willing to wager far more on him finishing #1 at QB than any RB finishing as the #1 RB.His upside is just as big as any of the competition at any other position, as is his potential value over the #2 at his position. And he has the absolute least downside of any other player in football.

The flaw in your logic is that the other RBs who also have a chance at being #1 will be taken in the 1st round. The next QB isn't taken until round 4. Thus, it is more likely than not that a 4th round QB or later will outperform your 4th overall pick.That is just bad drafting. If you can't find better value at the 4 hole than Manning, I'm not sure there is anything I can do for you.

Bagger the next time I solicit your help will be the first time but thanks for offering. (note please take that comment with tongue firmly planted in cheek. I could never be mad at a true Cardinal and Gold fan such as yourself).But what about the 50% chance that the RB you select in the first round will be a complete bust? We see this every year, how is this factored in? Do you consider that Manning has any bust potential? Is his bust potential even remotely close to ANY other player in the NFL?Like most of us I believe in my ability to scout talent and I honestly think that Manning coupled with the RBs that I would likely be pulling off the board in the 2nd and 3rd round will outperform top 3 picks that someone else makes in the same situation.And I still fail to see how a player with legitimate potential to finish with the highest VBD in the league, regardless of position, is a bad selection at any time.

 

[mightyeskimo]

No.

 

[kyinaz]

The flaw in your logic is that you assume that it's easy to guess which of those mystery RBs will be #1 or similarly successful, as in say #4 at year's end. I do not agree that it is "likely" that a 4th round qb will outperform my 4th overall--possible but certainly not likely, not to mention you would need to clarify what you mean by outperform--as related to VBD principles or total points, etc?The 4 spot is one pick of 14. "Bad Drafting", in my experience, generally requires that several poor picks are made. While you certainly can kill a team's chances in the early rounds, I do not think that picking the best FF QB currently playing necessarily leads to that end.

The flaw in your logic is that the other RBs who also have a chance at being #1 will be taken in the 1st round. The next QB isn't taken until round 4. Thus, it is more likely than not that a 4th round QB or later will outperform your 4th overall pick.That is just bad drafting. If you can't find better value at the 4 hole than Manning, I'm not sure there is anything I can do for you.

 

[rotorooter]

in a 10 team league ike yours with only one RB starter-- definitely go for the best player at a position like Qb. you are right in that set-up

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses.

I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 K.

If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:

01.05 Peyton Manning

05.05 Reggie Bush

06.06 DeShaun Foster

07.05 Jamal Lewis

08.06 Dominic Rhodes

09.05 Thomas Jones

02.06 Torry Holt

04.06 Reggie Wayne

10.06 Terry Glenn

03.05 Antonio Gates

11.05 Shayne Graham

12.06 Miami

 

[FreeBaGeL]

^^That's you waving your fantasy season goodbye when you draft Peyton 4th overall.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This whole "shot in the dark" argument for RBs doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If you're picking your players early on strictly not to bust then you've already lost. Picking Manning is like assigning a bust to your first round pick, the advantage you get at QB compared to the rest of the league is just so minimal it's not really going to have much of an effect. Sure there's a 20-25% chance that RB you take at #4 is gonna bust, but if you take Manning at 4 valuewise there's a near 100% chance he's going to bust, with your only hope being another 50 TD season.

You look at QBs in round 10 and on, guys like Jake Plummer and Trent Green that are likely good for 3500/20 at least (Trent has gone for 4k+ consistently and averaged 22-23td a year the last few years) and you're talking a difference of 40-50pts over guys that are being drafted as backups 120 picks later. A better RB can make up that point difference in 4 games.

Peyton was always a 3rd round pick as a 4000/28 guy. After his record breaking season there was all the first round hype, but now that he's come back down to Earth people are still projecting him as a first rounder using the same numbers that always made him a 3rd rounder, and what's worse this is in a year where there's more QB depth than there's ever been before. It's like trading away your 1st round pick for a late 3rd, because that's where 4000/28 puts you as a QB....it always has. I would feel legitimately comfortable waiting until the 10th round to take my first QB with the crazy depth there is there this year, whereas you usually have to grab the last of them in the 7th or 8th.

Now in the 7th/8th you can get a guy with a great shot to finish top 5 or top 3 with Bulger, Mcnabb, Delhomme, etc. You can pick up guys with a great shot to finish within arms reach of Manning well over 100 picks later with guys like Green, Plummer, Mcnair, possibly Bledsoe.

There's no other position outside of kicker where you can wait until you're well over 100 picks deep in the draft and still get two quality starters at the position.

Manning is a "safe" pick, sure. Safe in the terms that you're giving up your first round pick to know that your third rounder won't bust.

Gonzo was always valuable because he was a great TE and all the other TEs pretty much sucked, and that made him a 3rd round pick. Why in the hell would Peyton be a first round pick when all the other QBs are quite good themselves and there is absolutely no positional scarcity?

Gonzo was a great TE with tons of positional scarcity and was a 3rd round pick.

Peyton is a great QB with zero positional scarcity and he's a first round pick?

That goes against everything that defines how to play fantasy football.

 

[theToes]

The guy with the 4th pick in one of my leagues will most likely take Manning(we also have 6 pts/td). As the owner of the 12th pick I hope he and a couple of others take non rb's. I'll wait and scoop up the rb's and smile the whole time.

 

[coo2ie]

I don't. I did take him at 2.3 (15th pick overall) in a 6 pt td league. I think this is where he begins taking on + value...

 

[Sinrman]

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses.

I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 K.

If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:

01.05 Peyton Manning

05.05 Reggie Bush

06.06 DeShaun Foster

07.05 Jamal Lewis

08.06 Dominic Rhodes

09.05 Thomas Jones

02.06 Torry Holt

04.06 Reggie Wayne

10.06 Terry Glenn

03.05 Antonio Gates

11.05 Shayne Graham

12.06 Miami

 

[Mmen of Steel]

I thought someone was bumping a thread from last year. Sadly, no...

It was the wrong thing to do last year.It is the wrong thing to do this year.

I took Peyton in the 3rd overall last year and won the league.I took him 4th this year and I am expecting a strong title defense. Its a 12 man league, 10 years running -- 80% sharks.Granted our scoring is skewed to reward the long yardage plays,so Peyton is valued differently.To answer the original questionQB (start 1) Peyton, Plummer, CutlerRB (start 2) KJ, DFoster, DWilliams, BarlowWR (start 3) Walker, Driver, Wilford, Lloyd, FergusonTE (start 1) Watson, SchefflerK (start 1) Elam, JanikowskiDT (start 1) Carolina, MiamiObviously, it hurt the RB and WR lineup to take Peyton, but I really (no jinx, no jinx, no jinx) think that he is one of thesure bets in a somewhat crazier-than-normal offseason.

 

[Mmen of Steel]

^^That's you waving your fantasy season goodbye when you draft Peyton 4th overall.

That's Bagelboy waving his credibility goodbye effective December 06

 

[Chaka]

This whole "shot in the dark" argument for RBs doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If you're picking your players early on strictly not to bust then you've already lost. Picking Manning is like assigning a bust to your first round pick, the advantage you get at QB compared to the rest of the league is just so minimal it's not really going to have much of an effect. Sure there's a 20-25% chance that RB you take at #4 is gonna bust, but if you take Manning at 4 valuewise there's a near 100% chance he's going to bust, with your only hope being another 50 TD season.You look at QBs in round 10 and on, guys like Jake Plummer and Trent Green that are likely good for 3500/20 at least (Trent has gone for 4k+ consistently and averaged 22-23td a year the last few years) and you're talking a difference of 40-50pts over guys that are being drafted as backups 120 picks later. A better RB can make up that point difference in 4 games.Peyton was always a 3rd round pick as a 4000/28 guy. After his record breaking season there was all the first round hype, but now that he's come back down to Earth people are still projecting him as a first rounder using the same numbers that always made him a 3rd rounder, and what's worse this is in a year where there's more QB depth than there's ever been before. It's like trading away your 1st round pick for a late 3rd, because that's where 4000/28 puts you as a QB....it always has. I would feel legitimately comfortable waiting until the 10th round to take my first QB with the crazy depth there is there this year, whereas you usually have to grab the last of them in the 7th or 8th.Now in the 7th/8th you can get a guy with a great shot to finish top 5 or top 3 with Bulger, Mcnabb, Delhomme, etc. You can pick up guys with a great shot to finish within arms reach of Manning well over 100 picks later with guys like Green, Plummer, Mcnair, possibly Bledsoe.There's no other position outside of kicker where you can wait until you're well over 100 picks deep in the draft and still get two quality starters at the position.Manning is a "safe" pick, sure. Safe in the terms that you're giving up your first round pick to know that your third rounder won't bust.Gonzo was always valuable because he was a great TE and all the other TEs pretty much sucked, and that made him a 3rd round pick. Why in the hell would Peyton be a first round pick when all the other QBs are quite good themselves and there is absolutely no positional scarcity?Gonzo was a great TE with tons of positional scarcity and was a 3rd round pick.Peyton is a great QB with zero positional scarcity and he's a first round pick?That goes against everything that defines how to play fantasy football.

This is good logic indeed.However to me every season Manning has the potential to finish so far ahead of the competition at QB that it warrants consideration in the first round. After all isn't that what VBD is all about figuring out who is going to outperform the next guy on the list by the greatest margin? I think Manning has just as much shot at being that guy as any one else in football.

 

[Red Herring]

As some have said above, it pays to know how many guppies you're playing with. It also pays to know league rules. I took Manning at 1.06 in a 12 team, 6/TD league with severe roster restrictions (2 team QB/ 4 RB/ 4 WR/ 2 TE/ 2 K/ 2 D/ST) and ended up with:

Team QBs: Colts, Falcons

RBs: Portis(3.06), Dunn, C Taylor, J Lewis

WRs: Holt, R Williams, Coles, Mi Clayton

TE: Watson, VD

PK: Kasay, Koenen

D/ST: ATL, Min

 

[Marauder]

I was prepared to take Manning at #5 yesterday but I was happy when the guy at 4 took him and I was able to get Tiki at 5. I was even happier when I got Carson Palmer in round 5.

There is no question in my mind that Palmer and Tiki is far superior to Manning and whatever scrub RB I would have gotten in round 5.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

However to me every season Manning has the potential to finish so far ahead of the competition at QB that it warrants consideration in the first round. After all isn't that what VBD is all about figuring out who is going to outperform the next guy on the list by the greatest margin? I think Manning has just as much shot at being that guy as any one else in football.

But he's only done that one time in eight years..

 

[On The Rocks]

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses. I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 K.If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:01.05 Peyton Manning05.05 Reggie Bush06.06 DeShaun Foster07.05 Jamal Lewis08.06 Dominic Rhodes09.05 Thomas Jones02.06 Torry Holt04.06 Reggie Wayne10.06 Terry Glenn03.05 Antonio Gates11.05 Shayne Graham12.06 Miami

i absolutely love the Foster pick in round 6!

 

[LordHusker]

In a 10-team league, you HAVE to think differently. It's way different than a 12-teamer. Guys on this message board will belittle you and talk about guppies and all that, but the truth is, there WILL be excellent RBs and WRs to be had in the middle rounds. Why? Because the "sharks" who load up on RBs for the first four rounds will wind up with no studs in any of the other positions -- so they don't do it as much. If you're willing to sluff RB or WR and go after STUDS with your first picks, a few gifts may just slide to you that fill out your supposed weaknesses. I drafted this team in my 10-team money league last night (I also play a 14-team money league; I don't even do a 12-teamer). This is a non-PPR, standard scoring league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 K.If you want to take Peyton at the fifth pick, I say go for it. I also reached for Gates in the 3rd. No regrets. I had blast drafting this team last night:01.05 Peyton Manning05.05 Reggie Bush06.06 DeShaun Foster07.05 Jamal Lewis08.06 Dominic Rhodes09.05 Thomas Jones02.06 Torry Holt04.06 Reggie Wayne10.06 Terry Glenn03.05 Antonio Gates11.05 Shayne Graham12.06 Miami

i absolutely love the Foster pick in round 6!

Thanks. The owner right after me didn't. He screamed when I took Foster.Also, I am a IDIOT. I don't know why I typed that starter requirement. This league is 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.