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Insanely high percentage of long-shot bets came in. What was the probability of it happening? (1 Viewer)

E

ekbeats

Footballguy
This is insane. I placed 12 bets, 11 of them long-shots. Any math wizards out there? Can someone calculate the odds of this happening?

+8000 = 1.23% W
+2500 = 3.85% L
+1350 = 6.9% W
+764 = 11.57% L
+500 = 16.67% W
+500 = 16.67% W
+450 = 18.18% W
+425 = 19.05% L
+230 = 30.3% W
+118 = 45.87% W
+105 = 48.75% W
-210 = 67.74% W

And check this out - 2 of the 3 bets I lost were 6 leg parlays, and I almost won those as well. I hit 5 of the 6 legs on both, with the one missed leg being Mahomes over 250 passing yards. The other bet I lost was something I hoped I would lose. It was a hedge bet in case Mahomes got injured.

I even won a bet that a kick would hit the uprights 😆
 
Last edited:
If I didn’t place the 3 losing bets, the probability of me winning all those 9 bets was .000012379% - or 1 out of 8,078,197

I just don’t know how to calculate the probability including the 3 bets I lost.
 
Wingnut said:
How much did you wager and win altogether?
Click to expand...
I don’t think that calculates what I’m looking for, but then again I’m getting old and stupid. Let’s say I didn’t lose the 3 bets. And I bet 100 on all 9 wins. I would have won $12,200. But the probability of all of those 9 extreme bets winning in one night would be calculated by multiplying all the percentage of each of those individual events. It’s like if you wanted to c calculate the odds of fliping a coin 3 times and it coming up heads each time. The probability would be 1/2 X 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/8. In my example above, the probability of those low probability events happening 9 out of 9 times would be 1/8,078,197. I just cant figure out how to calculate those low probability events happening 9 out of 12 times.
 
I don't know the answer, but I do know that your answer would be different between hitting
  • Exactly those 9 bets out of the 12 (and losing the other 3)
  • Any 9 bets out of the 12 (but still losing the other 3)
  • Any 9 or more bets out of the 12
 
ekbeats said:
This is insane. I placed 12 bets, 11 of them long-shots. Any math wizards out there? Can someone calculate the odds of this happening?

+8000 = 1.23% W
+2500 = 3.85% L
+1350 = 6.9% W
+764 = 11.57% L
+500 = 16.67% W
+500 = 16.67% W
+450 = 18.18% W
+425 = 19.05% L
+230 = 30.3% W
+118 = 45.87% W
+105 = 48.75% W
-210 = 67.74% W

And check this out - 2 of the 3 bets I lost were 6 leg parlays, and I almost won those as well. I hit 5 of the 6 legs on both, with the one missed leg being Mahomes over 250 passing yards. The other bet I lost was something I hoped I would lose. It was a hedge bet in case Mahomes got injured.

I even won a bet that a kick would hit the uprights 😆
Click to expand...
Let's see the card
 
heckmanm said:
I don't know the answer, but I do know that your answer would be different between hitting
  • Exactly those 9 bets out of the 12 (and losing the other 3)
  • Any 9 bets out of the 12 (but still losing the other 3)
  • Any 9 or more bets out of the 12
Click to expand...
Yes, this is key. Those three options are sorted easiest to calculte to hardest to calculate, but also sorted least likely relevant to most likely relevant (assumption of what OP is seeking). I can try to calculate the last option in a little while. Which seems like the best answer.
 
ekbeats said:
This is insane. I placed 12 bets, 11 of them long-shots. Any math wizards out there? Can someone calculate the odds of this happening?

+8000 = 1.23% W
+2500 = 3.85% L
+1350 = 6.9% W
+764 = 11.57% L
+500 = 16.67% W
+500 = 16.67% W
+450 = 18.18% W
+425 = 19.05% L
+230 = 30.3% W
+118 = 45.87% W
+105 = 48.75% W
-210 = 67.74% W

And check this out - 2 of the 3 bets I lost were 6 leg parlays, and I almost won those as well. I hit 5 of the 6 legs on both, with the one missed leg being Mahomes over 250 passing yards. The other bet I lost was something I hoped I would lose. It was a hedge bet in case Mahomes got injured.

I even won a bet that a kick would hit the uprights 😆
Click to expand...
I placed 14 bets and only 1 hit.

You’re welcome.
 
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