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Interesting bet posed to me regarding top rookies (1 Viewer)

Hear-the-Footsteps

Footballguy
Hypothetically, if you could make a bet and you had the choice of the following, which would you choose:

A) R.Bush, M.Leinart, D.Ferguson, AJ.Hawk, and M.Williams will all be drafted (regardless of order) in the top 8 selections.

B) At least one of the above 5 guys will fall out of the top 8.

It does not matter what order they go in.

It does not matter if another team trades up into a top 8 to select em.

All that matters is whether or not all 5 are gone prior to the 9th overall pick.

Found this interesting.

 
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Pipes

Footballguy
I'd definitely go A. I think Hawk is the only one of those that has chance to fall out of the top 8 and that's highly unlikely IMHO.

 

Hear-the-Footsteps

Footballguy
Thus far, everyone is siding with 'A' - which is exactly what I did when offered the bet.

Actually, it was more like a friend of mine making "guarantees" that there is always way too much hype (which is true) and consequently when the folks that actually do the drafting (the NFL teams) make their picks - every year there are surprises and guys falling further than expected (ie, A.Rodgers last year) - further than any of the so-called "experts" or even the most avid fans imagined.

However, my argument was that even though there is always a ton of hype and that inevitably some guys will turn out to not be as great as projected, we don't know which of the top ranked guys that will be.

So at what point do you not take A?

What if it was those 5 guys in the top 7? Or top 6?

Would you still take the bet if all had to be gone before the 7th pick?

Anyway, it fostered a fun little debate - the above just being the gist of it.

 
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SammyJankis

Footballguy
I'm a Cards fan and they pick 10th, so I've done a good bit of monitoring who I think will be available at that spot.

I have not seen any mock with Bush, Leinhardt or Williams sliding past 8. I've see the odd mock that has Ferguson or Hawk sliding to or past the Cards at 10.

Were Ferguson or Hawk available at 10, I'd be ecstatic, but I think is extremely unlikely.

I'll go A. The only player with a remote chance to drop is Hawk, and I'd say I'm about 90% confident that he'll be gone somewhere in the top 8 selections. It would take the stars to align perfectly (i.e. some trade ups) for him to slide.

 
T

trader jake

Guest
going w/ the masses here

A with aj hawk being the only concern

 

John Maddens Lunchbox

Socialism for Dummies
Has there ever been a case where a consensus Top 5 pick has done something really stupid or got injured this close to the draft and fallen out of the top 10 as a result?

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
I like AJ Hawk one hell of a lot, but I can see him slipping to Detroit @ 1.09.

Looking at teams that might take him:

1 1 Houston - :no:

2 2 New Orleans - :no:

3 3 Tennessee - :no:

4 4 N.Y. Jets - :no:

5 5 Green Bay - I know, he's projected here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Davis here, especially if Walker gets traded

6 6 San Francisco - possibly, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the new coaching address the real need, OL

7 7 Oakland - QB is too much of a need

8 8 Buffalo - Ngata or if Justice falls, him.

9 9 Detroit - Hawk won't slip further than here.

It's a stretch, but I can see it.

Safer bet is A, but I won't be shocked if B happens.

Too bad he didn't require you to include Young in the bet. ;)

 

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