Interesting Pats trend (1 Viewer)

[redman]

I was just trying to decide whether or not to stert Will Allen vs. NE this week and I came across an interesting trend:

Each of the first four weeks the highest scoring CB on the defense opposing the Patriots has had ten points or more. It's been extremely consistent because no one's had more than 11 or less than 10.5. The second best CB has only scored as much as 6 pts once, as much as 4.5 points twice, or as much as 3.5 pts. 3 times.

Conclusion: The Pats seem to be an offensive team that targets matchups and tries to exploit them heavily. Try to find the "weak" CB on the opposing defense and start him.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Is Will Allen the weak link in the Dolphins secondary though? I think he might be a little better cover CB than Daniels, but neither really stands out. I could see Brady attacking both somewhat equally.

It looks like these were the best games against the Patriots so far this year:

Kerry Rhodes - 10 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 PD

Donte Whitner - 4 solos, 4 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD

Terrence McGee - 9 solos, 1 asst, 1 PD

Tory James - 3 solos, 2 asst, 1 INT, 2 PD

David Barrett - 4 solos, 1 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD

Darrent Williams - 9 solos, 1 asst

Kevin Kaesviharn - 5 solos, 2 asst, 1 PD

Madieu Williams - 4 solos, 3 asst, 1 PD

Ko Simpson - 4 solos, 3 asst

Erik Coleman - 5 solos

Justin Miller - 4 solos, 1 asst

McGee and DWilliams definitely had big games, but if you take away the INTs for Tory James and David Barrett, they were the only two.

 

[redman]

Allen may well not be. Before week 4's enormous performance for Allen (something like 8 tackles, a INT, a sack and a pass def), he and Goodman were within a half point of each other for the year.

I'm going to look it up and see whether they targeted Goodman last year, and whether they ever targeted Allen when he was a Giant.

EDIT-

Meh, I forgot Goodman was on the Lions last year. He really has no meaningful history vs. NE.

As for Allen, his last game against them was week 5 in 2003, and he only had one tackle.

Any guesses as to which guy figures to cover which receiver?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

my guess is that the Patriots will run a lot of 2-TE sets so I don't think Goodman would see the field much as the nickel back.

Gabriel looks like the main target at WR now for New England and from what I've seen, he has mostly been lining up on the left side. That would match him up with Daniels most of the time.

Just an educated guess though. Andre Johnson also plays on the left and Will Allen had the big game last week. I'm not sure if they moved Allen over to cover him or what happened as I didn't get to see that game.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think the trend your seeing has more to do with Nate Clements and Champ Bailey than it does Brady and the Patriots.

Clements and Bailey are 2 of the best corners in the league and more Qbs than just Brady avoid throwing at them which has meant good numbers for McGee and Darrent Williams for awhile now.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the trend your seeing has more to do with Nate Clements and Champ Bailey than it does Brady and the Patriots.Clements and Bailey are 2 of the best corners in the league and more Qbs than just Brady avoid throwing at them which has meant good numbers for McGee and Darrent Williams for awhile now.

but, honestly, McGee has outplayed Clements in pretty much every game so far this year. Clements is a waste of money in this new defense so far and there is almost no chance the Bills re-sign him after this season.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think the trend your seeing has more to do with Nate Clements and Champ Bailey than it does Brady and the Patriots.Clements and Bailey are 2 of the best corners in the league and more Qbs than just Brady avoid throwing at them which has meant good numbers for McGee and Darrent Williams for awhile now.

but, honestly, McGee has outplayed Clements in pretty much every game so far this year. Clements is a waste of money in this new defense so far and there is almost no chance the Bills re-sign him after this season.

Maybe the Vikings can sign him Clements is better man to man than in Zone?If McGee keeps outplaying him if what your saying is right then teams will start avoiding McGee..The Bills did a very good job shutting the Vikings down last week. Williamson caught only 2 of 9 targets. Ouch. Hopefully they can perform similarly against the Bears.

 

[redman]

I think the trend your seeing has more to do with Nate Clements and Champ Bailey than it does Brady and the Patriots.Clements and Bailey are 2 of the best corners in the league and more Qbs than just Brady avoid throwing at them which has meant good numbers for McGee and Darrent Williams for awhile now.

There's no doubt truth to this, but it of course doesn't explain the entirely consistent games that the top CB's for the Jets and Bengals had. I was just struck by the consistently great performance that the top CB had vs. Brady - If your CB's averages 10-11 pts per game they're by far the top CB in IDP.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Debates like this get fun at this time of year as team tendencies and strategies start to become somewhat known. While the original observation of this thread is very interesting, I have a couple of contradictory observations of my own that probably don't end up advancing a conclusion in either direction.

First is the widely held belief that part of Brady's success is his ability and discipline to go through his progressions and throw to the receiver who is open. His O-line gives him this luxury. This would indicate that even if the game plan targets a defensive player, he'll go quickly to his next option if the defensive player has done his job.

On the other side of the ledger is the feeling that Gabriel is becoming a first look option for Brady as the two improve their rapport, as proven last week (Gabriel TD). As Aaron points out, Gabriel has primarily lined up on the left side making the DB covering him a good choice per Redman's theory.

No conclusions by me here, just more info. But this is a very intersting way of looking at this team matchup. I'm going to watch this game this weekend anyway. I'll be watching closely to see if Redman's theory holds true for another week. Could be a useful way of looking at things going forward against QB's like Brady and others.

Oh, one one last wildcard for this game is the chessmatch between two coaches who know each other just a little too well. Look for the possibility of some out of the box thinking by both Belichick and Sabin.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the trend your seeing has more to do with Nate Clements and Champ Bailey than it does Brady and the Patriots.Clements and Bailey are 2 of the best corners in the league and more Qbs than just Brady avoid throwing at them which has meant good numbers for McGee and Darrent Williams for awhile now.

but, honestly, McGee has outplayed Clements in pretty much every game so far this year. Clements is a waste of money in this new defense so far and there is almost no chance the Bills re-sign him after this season.

Maybe the Vikings can sign him Clements is better man to man than in Zone?If McGee keeps outplaying him if what your saying is right then teams will start avoiding McGee..The Bills did a very good job shutting the Vikings down last week. Williamson caught only 2 of 9 targets. Ouch. Hopefully they can perform similarly against the Bears.

well, McGee just had probably his worst game as a pro yesterday. He even admitted it might have been his worst game ever. He was awful. I still think he can be a poor man's Ronde Barber in this system though.as for Clements, yes his strength should be in man to man coverage because he is SUPPOSED to be one of the league's premiere shutdown CBs. He's been missing a lot of tackles this year though and even though I really wanted the Bills to keep him this past offseason, I won't be sad to see him go after watching him these first 5 games. Based on his franchise contract, he might be one of the most overpaid players in the league.

 

[redman]

Sure enough the pattern didn't really hold, as Daniels had 5 points and Allen had 4, with around another 4 points spread between the other three CB's. Oh well.