The_Man
Footballguy
I always like listening to Eric DeCosta, the Ravens' #2 guy to Ozzie Newsome and successor to Phil Savage, at this time of year because he offers fascinating insight into what has helped make Baltimore so successful in the draft. He makes the round of local talk shows and is always very candid.
They constantly analyze themselves, as well as the rest of the NFL, to help project what makes a successful draft pick. One thing that the Ravens are now down on are guys with tools who are still "works in progress." From Kyle Boller to Adam Terry, to a bunch of other guys that only Ravens fans have heard of (David Pittman, Patrick Johnson), most of their bust picks have been "tools" guys. The Ravens now pretty much think that if you haven't been able to establish yourself as a premier player in college, then you're not going to do it as a pro, no matter how good your tools are.
To that end, DeCosta sounds pretty sceptical about Heyward-Bay. "He’s a work-in-progress as a player, but he’s a big guy that is very, very fast. He’s a home run hitter, and every team in the NFL is looking for a big guy that runs fast. We want guys that can catch. If you’re 6-foot-3 and run a 4.2, but you can’t catch, that’s a problem. We want receivers that have great ball skills, particularly down the field and inside, between the hashmarks - a guy like an Anquan Boldin, that can take a hit and hold onto the football.”
Talk like that has been fueling word in Baltimore that maybe the Ravens like Hakeem Nicks.
Decosta also talked about the analysis Baltimore did on picks #24-32 in the draft, to see what positions selected in this range resulted in the highest, and lowest, success rate. He said that the position most prone to busting in this range -- by far -- is wide receiver. He went on to say that the positions with the highest success rate in this range are Center, Guard, Safety, Tight End, and Inside Linebacker (not coincidentaly, the Ravens have drafted Ben Grubbs, Ed Reed, Todd Heap, and Ray Lewis in this range).
DeCosta said these positions don't tend to go as high as some of the "skill" positions, and that you almost always end up with a good player if you draft the first guy taken at a particular position. For example, the Ravens have twice selected the first Fullback taken in the draft in recent years and they've both been very good players -- Ovie Mughelli and LeRon McClain. Grubbs, Reed, and Heap were all the first player at their position taken in the years the Ravens drafted them. His quote for this year was: when you can get the best Tight End in Pettigrew, or the fifth best tackle in Eben Britton, you take Pettigrew.
When asked if a WR or a CB with the same grade were both available, would he favor one position over the other. He immediately said CB, pointing out all the 1st round WR busts, and the number of very good WRs taken after the 1st round. He also said it is virtually impossible to draft a starting CB after the 2nd round. I would love to see a breakdown of starting CBs in the NFL and how many were taken in the 3rd round or later.
To sum up, it sounds like the Ravens will not take a 1st round WR and that they will expect value to be their at that position in later rounds. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to trade down. And I would expect them to take a "best player at his position" type guy, like Pettigrew, Maualuga or Mack if they are still available when the Ravens pick. Otherwise, I would look at the best remaining CB on the board.
They constantly analyze themselves, as well as the rest of the NFL, to help project what makes a successful draft pick. One thing that the Ravens are now down on are guys with tools who are still "works in progress." From Kyle Boller to Adam Terry, to a bunch of other guys that only Ravens fans have heard of (David Pittman, Patrick Johnson), most of their bust picks have been "tools" guys. The Ravens now pretty much think that if you haven't been able to establish yourself as a premier player in college, then you're not going to do it as a pro, no matter how good your tools are.
To that end, DeCosta sounds pretty sceptical about Heyward-Bay. "He’s a work-in-progress as a player, but he’s a big guy that is very, very fast. He’s a home run hitter, and every team in the NFL is looking for a big guy that runs fast. We want guys that can catch. If you’re 6-foot-3 and run a 4.2, but you can’t catch, that’s a problem. We want receivers that have great ball skills, particularly down the field and inside, between the hashmarks - a guy like an Anquan Boldin, that can take a hit and hold onto the football.”
Talk like that has been fueling word in Baltimore that maybe the Ravens like Hakeem Nicks.
Decosta also talked about the analysis Baltimore did on picks #24-32 in the draft, to see what positions selected in this range resulted in the highest, and lowest, success rate. He said that the position most prone to busting in this range -- by far -- is wide receiver. He went on to say that the positions with the highest success rate in this range are Center, Guard, Safety, Tight End, and Inside Linebacker (not coincidentaly, the Ravens have drafted Ben Grubbs, Ed Reed, Todd Heap, and Ray Lewis in this range).
DeCosta said these positions don't tend to go as high as some of the "skill" positions, and that you almost always end up with a good player if you draft the first guy taken at a particular position. For example, the Ravens have twice selected the first Fullback taken in the draft in recent years and they've both been very good players -- Ovie Mughelli and LeRon McClain. Grubbs, Reed, and Heap were all the first player at their position taken in the years the Ravens drafted them. His quote for this year was: when you can get the best Tight End in Pettigrew, or the fifth best tackle in Eben Britton, you take Pettigrew.
When asked if a WR or a CB with the same grade were both available, would he favor one position over the other. He immediately said CB, pointing out all the 1st round WR busts, and the number of very good WRs taken after the 1st round. He also said it is virtually impossible to draft a starting CB after the 2nd round. I would love to see a breakdown of starting CBs in the NFL and how many were taken in the 3rd round or later.
To sum up, it sounds like the Ravens will not take a 1st round WR and that they will expect value to be their at that position in later rounds. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to trade down. And I would expect them to take a "best player at his position" type guy, like Pettigrew, Maualuga or Mack if they are still available when the Ravens pick. Otherwise, I would look at the best remaining CB on the board.
Great information! Thanks
