Is anbody left scratching their heads at poor clock management (1 Viewer)

[Liquid Tension]

Look, I could go on and on about a ton of bad decisions and I recognize that "stuff" is flying very fast on the sideline and decisions have to be made immediately, but coaches lose so many games because of poor clock management.

There are hundreds of examples of this happening and unfortunately the "average" fan never talks about he 98 times it doesn't matter, they only talk about the two times it does come back to haunt you. The idea of a coach is to put your team in the best position to win and I see dumb examples all the time.

Here are 2 from last week that I can think of.

Just this past week, the Giants call a timeout in the Dallas game with under 2 minutes to go and 2 timeouts when they should have let the clock run down to 1 second before they burned it (It was found out later that Plaxico called the timeout). the Giants scored leaving a lot of time for Dallas to go down and score. yes, they had a huge play On the 1st play so the time didn't matter, but perhaps if there were 40 seconds to go in the game rather than a minute, the Giants would have kicked off differently or at least been a deeper defense on that first play? Maybe it didn't matter but it could have and that is my point. BTW, Parcells' kicked the ball with 7 seconds left and left a second on the clock; why let the Giants have a Chance to pitch the ball back and possibly get down the field and score a TD or get to the 50 yard line and get a 15 yard personal foul tacked on? Why? Just stupid. It might not happen often, but why let it happen at all?

Shanahan did one of the dumber things I have ever seen at the end of the half of his game. Denver is driving down at the end of the half and they complete a 9 yard pass on 3rd and 10 and it is now 4th and 1 from the 25 of Seattle. Instead of letting the clock run down to 1 second and burning your Timeout, he immediately calls for a timeout when he see's he is short of the 1st down. I look at my friend and say Shanny is a moron. So now there is 24 seconds to go and Shanny may be thinking if we miss this FG I have left them time (I have no idea what he is thinking; but clearly what he is about to do would have never happened if he would have let the clock run down) so I will call a fake FG? Keep in mind there are 24 seconds left...they run the fake and LUCKILY Elam runs for the first down and gains a few yards (while also injuring his hammy). Now Shanny is smart enough to let the clock run down to 1 second this time and Elam barely walking makes the FG. yes, it didn't matter as long as Elam is OK, but what the heck is going on here? A bad decision exacerbated by an even worse one? Did he have a brain cramp? Running a fake by giving the ball to your kicker can't accomplish anything there more than a closer FG and there is a ton of downside, including turnover on downs.

All I can say is Yikes.

That might have been the worst sequence I can remember; any others?

 

[Gr00vus]

The Bills coach this week against the Chargers.

Bills receiver makes a catch that is ruled incomplete as he did not get both feet in on the sidelines. It's pretty clear from the replays without looking at them more than twice that this is the correct call. The Bills coach calls timeout to decide if he wants to challenge. He decides to challenge. The call is upheld, costing the Bills a timeout. Thus on a play where there should not even have been a challenge the Bills coach cost his team 2 timeouts. Bills lose by 3.

 

[CalBear]

The Big Game this week. On an extremely windy day, Cal was up by 6 at about the 18 yard line. A third-down run failed to pick up the first down with about 1:35 left on the clock. Stanford, with one timeout left, did not call it; Cal ran the clock down under 1:00 before calling its own timeout and setting up for the field goal. It turns out that the FG was good, so it didn't wind up mattering, but if the FG failed, Stanford cost themselves almost 40 seconds in a game they could have won.

My buddy said that if he were coaching a team, he would have one guy, some assistant or grad student, whose sole game-day job was to manage the clock. The head coach has a lot to deal with, so it would be useful to have someone who just says "call timeout now" at the appropriate times.

 

[Mole]

Herman Edwards

 

[fossdboss]

The Big Game this week. On an extremely windy day, Cal was up by 6 at about the 18 yard line. A third-down run failed to pick up the first down with about 1:35 left on the clock. Stanford, with one timeout left, did not call it; Cal ran the clock down under 1:00 before calling its own timeout and setting up for the field goal. It turns out that the FG was good, so it didn't wind up mattering, but if the FG failed, Stanford cost themselves almost 40 seconds in a game they could have won.

My buddy said that if he were coaching a team, he would have one guy, some assistant or grad student, whose sole game-day job was to manage the clock. The head coach has a lot to deal with, so it would be useful to have someone who just says "call timeout now" at the appropriate times.

Herm Edwards tried this with **** Curl and we all know how well that turned out. I think it is a good idea, but you gotta pick the right guy.

 

[Liquid Tension]

The Bills coach this week against the Chargers. Bills receiver makes a catch that is ruled incomplete as he did not get both feet in on the sidelines. It's pretty clear from the replays without looking at them more than twice that this is the correct call. The Bills coach calls timeout to decide if he wants to challenge. He decides to challenge. The call is upheld, costing the Bills a timeout. Thus on a play where there should not even have been a challenge the Bills coach cost his team 2 timeouts. Bills lose by 3.

This is funny as we all know that you might as well challenge rather than use a TO to see if you should challenge (unless they are real scarce at the time of the game). To my point about IR though this is a good example of let them game play.

 

[redman]

Interesting. I thought for sure this related to Gibbs. From John Clayton's Tuesday Morning QB:

Perennially, Tuesday Morning Quarterback stares in disbelief as teams punt when trailing late. But there's a worse sequence of events -- when an NFL coach punts with the game still in reach, then goes for it with only minutes remaining and all hope lost. Sunday, Washington trailed Atlanta 24-10 with 10 minutes remaining, and the Redskins faced fourth-and-2 at midfield. Joe Gibbs sent in the punting unit. You need two scores and there are 10 minutes left! More than two-thirds of fourth-and-2 plays succeed! You're at midfield! Boom goes the punt. Then, still trailing 24-10 with four minutes remaining, Redskins deep in their territory, Washington faced fourth-and-4. At this point it made no difference whether the Redskins punted, went for it or started square dancing. And then -- at the point it no longer mattered -- Gibbs went for the first down.

Over and over again it is impressed upon TMQ that for all the billions of dollars invested in the NFL and big-college NCAA football, for all the dozens of assistant coaches per team and thousands of hours spent dissecting game film, it is amazing how little coaches seem to think about what they are doing. Punting on fourth-and-short when trailing late makes no sense, unless you aren't thinking about what you are doing. Or unless your true concern is blame-shifting. If the coach goes for it and the attempt fails, the next day the sports-yak world blames the coach; if the coach sends in the punt unit and the defense doesn't get the ball back, sports radio blames the defense. This attitude is aided by the fact that sportscasters, in my experience, never point out how ridiculous it is to punt on fourth-and-short when trailing late -- probably because most sportscasters never really think about the game, either. Trailing Philadelphia 27-3 at the end of the third quarter on Nov. 12, the Redskins faced fourth-and-5 at midfield. "That will force Washington to punt," announcer **** Stockton intoned. No team is "forced" to punt. But NFL coaches like it when sportscasters assume this, as it shifts the criticism off the coaches. And boom went the punt.

Something tells me that this decision had something to do with Jason Campbell struggling during the second half but I still don't get it.

 

[Liquid Tension]

The Big Game this week. On an extremely windy day, Cal was up by 6 at about the 18 yard line. A third-down run failed to pick up the first down with about 1:35 left on the clock. Stanford, with one timeout left, did not call it; Cal ran the clock down under 1:00 before calling its own timeout and setting up for the field goal. It turns out that the FG was good, so it didn't wind up mattering, but if the FG failed, Stanford cost themselves almost 40 seconds in a game they could have won.My buddy said that if he were coaching a team, he would have one guy, some assistant or grad student, whose sole game-day job was to manage the clock. The head coach has a lot to deal with, so it would be useful to have someone who just says "call timeout now" at the appropriate times.

I agree with this. Someone needs to be thinking about nothing other than clock management. The coach just needs to trust that person to signal at the right time. You would think the level of sophistication is fantastic, but it simply is not. Baseball is the same way with so many moves that are made that you just know the manager is kicking himself about.An offshoot of this is someone thinking about the play to be called after "this" one either works or does not work. Kind of like the 3rd and 1 play where you know you will go for 4th down so what do you call? Or after a timeout and you have used your last TO you need to call one play if you get the 1st down or a different one if it is 4th down. I have seen numerous times when the team didn't get the 1st down they didn't know what to do and they just "winged" it.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Herman Edwards

Didn't he get a guy to help him with clock management after he had so many blunders and the guy he got was bad as well?

 

[Liquid Tension]

Interesting. I thought for sure this related to Gibbs. From John Clayton's Tuesday Morning QB:

Perennially, Tuesday Morning Quarterback stares in disbelief as teams punt when trailing late. But there's a worse sequence of events -- when an NFL coach punts with the game still in reach, then goes for it with only minutes remaining and all hope lost. Sunday, Washington trailed Atlanta 24-10 with 10 minutes remaining, and the Redskins faced fourth-and-2 at midfield. Joe Gibbs sent in the punting unit. You need two scores and there are 10 minutes left! More than two-thirds of fourth-and-2 plays succeed! You're at midfield! Boom goes the punt. Then, still trailing 24-10 with four minutes remaining, Redskins deep in their territory, Washington faced fourth-and-4. At this point it made no difference whether the Redskins punted, went for it or started square dancing. And then -- at the point it no longer mattered -- Gibbs went for the first down.

Over and over again it is impressed upon TMQ that for all the billions of dollars invested in the NFL and big-college NCAA football, for all the dozens of assistant coaches per team and thousands of hours spent dissecting game film, it is amazing how little coaches seem to think about what they are doing. Punting on fourth-and-short when trailing late makes no sense, unless you aren't thinking about what you are doing. Or unless your true concern is blame-shifting. If the coach goes for it and the attempt fails, the next day the sports-yak world blames the coach; if the coach sends in the punt unit and the defense doesn't get the ball back, sports radio blames the defense. This attitude is aided by the fact that sportscasters, in my experience, never point out how ridiculous it is to punt on fourth-and-short when trailing late -- probably because most sportscasters never really think about the game, either. Trailing Philadelphia 27-3 at the end of the third quarter on Nov. 12, the Redskins faced fourth-and-5 at midfield. "That will force Washington to punt," announcer **** Stockton intoned. No team is "forced" to punt. But NFL coaches like it when sportscasters assume this, as it shifts the criticism off the coaches. And boom went the punt.

Something tells me that this decision had something to do with Jason Campbell struggling during the second half but I still don't get it.

No, I hadn't read this. I agree with the premise, but trailing in the 4th does not mean going for it. Maybe trailing by more than 2 scores does, but if I am on the 50 and it is 4th and 2 I would punt if I am within a score (unless very high scoring affair). Within a FG you have to punt. I hate punting from the 35-40 though as the yards you pickup are probably averaged around 30. I also think the worst place to go for a 1st down is about the 18-25 yard line. Those are FG's that should be made and even if you make the 1st down you probably won't score a TD and you could turn over the ball. I used to do the statistical probability charts to show this, but lost my data. If anyone has the numbers of how many points are scored with 1st and 10 from the 15 yard line 20 yard line etc... that would be cool.

A similar chart in baseball shows your expected runs when you get the leadoff guy on, 1st and 2nd nobody out, 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, etc...good stuff for stat heads like me

 

[ZenMaster]

Interesting. I thought for sure this related to Gibbs. From John Clayton's Tuesday Morning QB:

Perennially, Tuesday Morning Quarterback stares in disbelief as teams punt when trailing late. But there's a worse sequence of events -- when an NFL coach punts with the game still in reach, then goes for it with only minutes remaining and all hope lost. Sunday, Washington trailed Atlanta 24-10 with 10 minutes remaining, and the Redskins faced fourth-and-2 at midfield. Joe Gibbs sent in the punting unit. You need two scores and there are 10 minutes left! More than two-thirds of fourth-and-2 plays succeed! You're at midfield! Boom goes the punt. Then, still trailing 24-10 with four minutes remaining, Redskins deep in their territory, Washington faced fourth-and-4. At this point it made no difference whether the Redskins punted, went for it or started square dancing. And then -- at the point it no longer mattered -- Gibbs went for the first down.

Over and over again it is impressed upon TMQ that for all the billions of dollars invested in the NFL and big-college NCAA football, for all the dozens of assistant coaches per team and thousands of hours spent dissecting game film, it is amazing how little coaches seem to think about what they are doing. Punting on fourth-and-short when trailing late makes no sense, unless you aren't thinking about what you are doing. Or unless your true concern is blame-shifting. If the coach goes for it and the attempt fails, the next day the sports-yak world blames the coach; if the coach sends in the punt unit and the defense doesn't get the ball back, sports radio blames the defense. This attitude is aided by the fact that sportscasters, in my experience, never point out how ridiculous it is to punt on fourth-and-short when trailing late -- probably because most sportscasters never really think about the game, either. Trailing Philadelphia 27-3 at the end of the third quarter on Nov. 12, the Redskins faced fourth-and-5 at midfield. "That will force Washington to punt," announcer **** Stockton intoned. No team is "forced" to punt. But NFL coaches like it when sportscasters assume this, as it shifts the criticism off the coaches. And boom went the punt.

Something tells me that this decision had something to do with Jason Campbell struggling during the second half but I still don't get it.

FYI, Tuesday Morning Quarterback is written by Gregg Easterbrook.

 

[CalBear]

If anyone has the numbers of how many points are scored with 1st and 10 from the 15 yard line 20 yard line etc... that would be cool.

David Romer's 2003 paper is the most comprehensive work on the subject; it's fairly academic, but what you're looking for is in figure 1, expected value based on field position.

 

[Wreckincrew]

12 Posts and no mention of Denny "Take a knee" Green.

For shame.........for shame .

 

[packersfan]

I hate punting from the 35-40 though as the yards you pickup are probably averaged around 30.

I've never liked punting from the 35. I'm sure there are stats to show what a brilliant move it is to punt in that situation but I still can't stand it. I can see bypassing the FG but even if it's 4th-and-20, if you complete an 18-yard pass that's still leaving the opposing offense in bad field position. Throw the ball downfield and see if you can draw a penalty; have the QB make sure he gets rid of the ball quickly so you don't take a sack. An interception in that situation is hardly the worst thing in the world so play aggressively and play to win. But unless it's a situation of horrible weather or something like that, then why punt? I've never understood or agreed with that decision and yet it happens all the time.

 

[TitusIII]

If anyone has the numbers of how many points are scored with 1st and 10 from the 15 yard line 20 yard line etc... that would be cool.

David Romer's 2003 paper is the most comprehensive work on the subject; it's fairly academic, but what you're looking for is in figure 1, expected value based on field position.

Thanks for posting this...

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I've never liked punting from the 35. I'm sure there are stats to show what a brilliant move it is to punt in that situation but I still can't stand it.

I doubt such stats exist. It is almost never a good decision to punt from the opponent's 35 yd line.

 

[dagogrease]

Mike Holmgren's play calling / clock management at the end of halves and games is mind boggling. What he did at the end of the Denver game almost cost them the win.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Carson Palmer is horrible at this. He's out there doing his Peyton Manning impersonation and it's as if he has no clue there's even a play clock. He'll take at least 2 delays per game and every time, he's just looking around all confused with just no idea whatsoever that the penalty is on him.

 

[Liquid Tension]

If anyone has the numbers of how many points are scored with 1st and 10 from the 15 yard line 20 yard line etc... that would be cool.

David Romer's 2003 paper is the most comprehensive work on the subject; it's fairly academic, but what you're looking for is in figure 1, expected value based on field position.

This is why I like you CalBear!