Is anybody taking Jacksonville tonight? (1 Viewer)

[themather]

I already know I'm an idiot (I have a wife to tell me that), but am I specifically an idiot today for thinking about picking Jacksonville to beat the Colts tonight?

My thoughts ...

1) Everybody and their grandmother is on the Colts bandwagon right now. And what usually happens when everybody gets caught up in a team at the same time? A letdown.

2) A young Colts team had a massively emotional win on Sunday, and now has to turn around in a short week and play on the road.

3) Speaking of the road, the Colts are 1-2 on the road this year, beating only Tennessee and getting creamed by Chicago and the Jets

4) Jacksonville has one win this year ... the Colts.

5) The Jags looked awful last week, so you imagine they're being pushed hard at practice by a coaching staff that wants to stay employed.

That said, these are still the 1-7 Jags that have Blaine Gabbert at QB and no MJD, so I'm aware of the somewhat idiot nature of picking them to win.

Anybody else going Jags tonight?

 

[TxBuckeye]

This is one of those times I'm happy I no longer am in any FF leagues. It allows me to totally disregard this total crapfest of a game. It won't get a second thought, like most of the other Thursday night abominations. Wurstfest, here we come!

 

[FunkyPlutos]

I actually enjoy games like this with teams I don't see very often...much needed break from "Manning-Night" Football!!

 

[MAC_32]

I am not picking the Jags, but an upset would not shock me. As you said the Colts have struggled on the road, they are coming off a very emotional win, and now have to travel on a short week to play an inferior opponent. For a young team like them this is a tough spot, especially because their defense is absolutely horrendous. This is the Super Bowl for the Jags this season as the season is completely lost, but this is their primetime stand-alone game and in this spot last year they shocked the Ravens at home. I just cannot bet on Blaine Gabbert. The defense is not good, MJD is out, Blackmon is lifeless and the rest of the weaponry is not insipring, the front office is about to be blown up, and most importantly Gabbert is a God awful QB. I just cannot bet on that, but if they're going to pull a stunner this is the spot to do it - it's why there's $0 of mine on the Colts. I picked them, but not confidently. I would LOVE for Luck to prove me wrong and throttle these guys though.

 

[themather]

Yeah, this game reeks of me trying to get cute and doing more thinking than I should. I suppose I should add that I'm not directly betting on the game, rather I have money in a Pick 'Em league. It's a great opportunity to pick up a point on the whole league, but the safe bet would be to take the Colts since a loss will mean a loss for everybody. Of course, I had the same notion two weeks ago and talked myself out of picking the Browns in a similar circumstance.

 

[Silver & Black]

I'm just hoping Vinatieri kicks about 9 field goals! Plus, I am looking forward to watching Luck play. I haven't been able to see him in action yet this year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

This is one of those times I'm happy I no longer am in any FF leagues. It allows me to totally disregard this total crapfest of a game. It won't get a second thought, like most of the other Thursday night abominations. Wurstfest, here we come!

Thanks for the update. I'll take jax to win the game.

 

[JAMES!]

I like the jags and the over. Both colts starting corners out, short week always favors home team on thursday. I see both offenses moving the ball and gabbert having one of the better games of his career.

 

[Wadsworth]

Replying to Is anybody taking Jacksonville tonight?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Game should be close, would like their chances more if Jax had a solid running game with MJD. I like Indy in a lower scoring game than most predict but narrowly.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

This is one of those times I'm happy I no longer am in any FF leagues.

ban, plz

 

[49er fan]

This is one of those times I'm happy I no longer am in any FF leagues. It allows me to totally disregard this total crapfest of a game. It won't get a second thought, like most of the other Thursday night abominations. Wurstfest, here we come!

ha, guys who don't play FF (sure you don't) but post on FF boards is like being really involved in a church but not believing in God.

 

[bigfeet_88]

The power of 30+ shaved heads for Pagano is going to steam roll the Jags tonight.

Sincerely,

Rodgers owner starting Luck

 

[Futz]

Indy is the obvious play butttttttttttttttttt....... the NFL is always a complete guessing game. Luck hasnt played well on the road and with Jax laying a complete egg last week v Detroit, I can see them at least covering at home in a divisional game. This is their super bowl essentially. Nothing else to play for.

 

[Dragon1952]

A write-up I did on another site. Follow at your own risk.

This looks like a really juicy match-up for the Colts. The Jags are just 1-7 and are ranked 27th in both rush/pass defense. They only have 8 sacks and have forced just 7 TO's. They're giving up 255 ypg passing (9 TD's) and 137 rushing (4.2 ypc, 12 TD's), a 61.8% QB completion rate and 27.4 ppg.

Interestingly, their only win was @ Indianapolis in Week 3 even though they were out-yarded and 1st-downed by a decent margin. The Jags benefited from a 60 yd TD run by RB Maurice Jones-Drew (who will be absent tonight) and an 80 yd air strike to WR Cecil Shorts III who has been hot lately. The Jags will be getting starting CB Derek Cox back who missed last week vs Detroit.

Indianapolis hasn't been much better on defense, ranked 25th against the run (130 ypg, 9 TD's) but a decent 11th vs the pass (221 ypg, 14 TD's though and just 2 INT's), and giving up 23.9 ppg. Overall the IND defense has only generated 3 TO's and as a team are -10 in TO ratio whereas the Jags are just a -2. Indy will get LB Pat Angerer back on defense for this game but Robert Mathis is questionable and they will be missing their 2 starting CB's Vontae Davis and Jarraud Powers.

While doing research for the fantasy aspects of starting Luck tonight I noticed that Luck has had 5 of 8 games at home where he has thrown for an avg of 303.6 ypg, and a total of 8 TD passing, 3 TD rushing and just 2 INT's. In the 3 road games he has gone for 295 ypg, but a total of just 2 TD passing, 0 TD rushing and then 6 INT's. He's also had 20 rushes for 112 yds (5.6 ypc) at home and just 9 for 36 (4 ypc) on the road. So he obviously has played better at home.

This game is similar to the Tennessee road game when you look at the match-up via defensive rankings where he went for 297/1/1. Vs Jacksonville at home in week 3 Luck went for 313/2/1 but completed less than 50% of his passes.

Another thing, in their 3 road games (1 on field turf, 2 on grass) the Colts have only scored 3 offensive TD's and one came in OT. They've scored 21, 9 and 19 in those road games with 6 of that last one in OT. This game will be on grass and outside. Luck will most certainly get his yards but if this one goes like the other 3 road games he maybe shouldn't be counted on for multiple TD passes.

Even though the match-up looks great for the Colts, and the fact that the Jags give up nearly 28 ppg, the fact that the Colts haven't scored well on the road worries me a bit. A total of 49 pts in 3 road games and 1 TD was defensive, 1 in OT and another in Week 1 could be considered in garbage time makes it look even worse. This will be their very 1st time as a road favorite under Luck, so that is also a concern. They do have the 6 pt road win @ Tennessee (which was a similar defensive match-up), but that one went to OT.

I don't like the hook in this one at all. If I was going to take the Colts I would seriously consider buying the 1/2 pt. I also don't like the total of 43 considering the Jags are only averaging around 14.5 ppg and the fact that the Colts haven't been lighting up the scoreboard on the road on grass.

So, in my infinite wisdom, I am going to play the home team and the under on a 7 pt teaser and see what happens.

Jags +10.5 and UN 50

to summarize why I don't like the Colts @ -3.5

1. 1st road game as favorite

2. -10 TO ratio

3. Generated only 3 TO's

4. Road scoring, or lack thereof / results on grass

5. starting CB's out

 

[The_Wolfman]

 

[Eminence]

I bet on the Colts. There was no Luck involved.

 

[Dragon1952]

ha ha...yeah well sometimes you win with the wrong play and sometimes you lose with the right play. That's why they call it gambling.

It might not have been luck but it was certainly the perfect storm of events for the Colts in that nearly every possible thing that could go their way did.

 

[steveski]

I didn't want to get anywhere near this game. The Jags are an all around bad team with a bad QB and the Colts are just such a young team and organization. There's too much unknown in games like these.

 

[TxBuckeye]

This is one of those times I'm happy I no longer am in any FF leagues. It allows me to totally disregard this total crapfest of a game. It won't get a second thought, like most of the other Thursday night abominations. Wurstfest, here we come!

Thanks for the update. I'll take jax to win the game.

Thanks for the update. Hope you enjoyed the crap game and the loss.p.s. The Brauts and beer were awesome!