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ya well go to antsports he is going in the late 2nd early 3rd
that team is absolutely rediculous for a 14 team draft.. were u drafting against children? or perhaps monkeys? hahahayou seriously made out like a bandit at RB and WR.. qb's and te's are solid.. solid IDP's..
We've been over this in other threads. The Ravens were more lenient for what they expected players to be in come the beginning of camp. The Vikings staff apparetnly expects peple to be in game shape when they set foot at camp. This played out in the press as Taylor being out of shape when it appears he was in the same shape as he was in any other June practice.IMO, Taylor has Top 10 potential running behind 3 Pro Bowlers (Birk, Hutchinson, Richardson).
No, I doubt very much that Chester will get 20+ carries a game. That is 320+ carries which happened for 8 players last year, 8 in 2004, 9 in 2003, 5 in 2002 and 5 in 2001. So in the last 5 years only 7 per year which is less than 25% of the teams. Chester also has high carry total of only 160, so he still has a way to go to get to 320+.Also, of those 35 320+ carry seasons in the last 5 years, 20 are from LT, SA, Holmes, Martin, McAllister, Portis, Dillon, Barber and James. That leaves 3 "others" per year since I don't consider Taylor to be in that upper echelon. I would say Jordan, Droughns, Caddy, Brown, Jackson and maybe Benson (if TJ holds out for a while) have the best shot at 320+.
Even 18 rushes and 4 receptions a game is 352 touches, which is fine if you think he is going to get that kind of load, but tell me, how many backup RBs changing teams have gotten around or more than 350 touches?I can think of Jordan and that's it. Even Droughns was the main guy in Denver before going to Cleveland. I just don't remember backups from other teams getting that amount of touches their first year.
IMO, this is a somewhat flawed argument based solely on the fact that backup RBs hardly ever get signed by other teams to be the starting RB. There's Jordan (signed as a free agent), Trung Canidate in Washington (that one didn't work out to well, and in someways Ahman Green (traded for but not a FA signing). Who else is there that fits the bill? Priest Holmes was a backup in BAL and things turned out ok in KC (but he was more proven than Taylor). Charlie Garner was a backup in PHI and went to SF and became a fantasy stud. James Stewart was the backup to Fred Taylor and went to DET and had 360 touches. Lamar Smith was a backup on two teams before going to MIA and getting back-to-back years with 340 touches. Tyronne Wheatley was a backup in NYG and did ok in OAK. Harvey Williams was an absolute nobody in KC and went to OAK and ranked Top 10 his first two seasons for the Raiders.
Thanks for the info, I had a feeling you would respond to my question.Garner and Lamar are good examples, but James Stewart and Holmes had 230+, 900+ yard seasons before switching teams. Stewart and Holmers were proven load carriers so I will ignore them for now.
I generally projected people out to about 300-320 touches max and anything else becomes gravy. Everyone likes to say that PLAYER X will have 1800 yards and 12 TD if they get the ball 350 times, which many times the results would be accurate if they got that many touches but the fact of the matter is most backs don't get up to that amount.As for examples of later round picks getting picked up as free agents and starting after being a back up, there are none that I can find. If the issue here is that he was a late round pick and how well he might do, there have been quite a few backs that have gone in later rounds and still done extremely well.
1) HC and OC: True, we don't know what the Vikes will do, but they have already said they hope to get Taylor the ball 20-30 times a game. I never buy into the 30 touches tlak, but 20 seems reasonable to me. Also, IMO the WR corps is somewhat run of the mill, and they certainly at this point don't appear to have a receiver that is in line for 100 receptions. They have 4 decent options but no one great. While others may argue otherwise, I think this improves the chances Taylor gets a steady diet of carrying the ball.2) Most teams would be in trouble if the main QB went down to injury. At 38, Johnson will not beat Michael Vick in the 40 yard dash, but until he gets injured this is pure conjecture. Even if Johnson were to get hurt, that many times gives the RB more work, so that might not be the worst thing for Taylor.3) From what I've seen, Moore is projected to be a special teamer and change of pace back. There has been some debate as to whether Fason is the #2 in MIN. If the team really wanted Moore to be the starter, they have had plenty of opportunity to do so in the pst and really have not embraced him as a featured back. I personally thought Moore was a decent option, but then they went out and gleefully signed Taylor.4) "Reports of" and "whispers" are not the same. No one has come out and actually said "Taylor is not in shape." IIRC, there was an article saying that some people felt the team may have been disappointed in Taylor's conditioning upon arriving. This has been covered in several articles. Taylor himself has said the number of practices and pace in Minnesota is much more rigorous than it was in Baltimore. There are still many months until opening day. If he still is winded come September, then we can revisit this issue.5) Unproven and can he last: This can be said of any rookie or any new starter, and while a valid concern, one that many RB have faced. In 11 games in BAL with 10 or more carries, Taylor averaged 17 carries, 67 rushing yards, and 20 receiving yards per game. If nothing changed at all (clearly that won't happen), he would get 1400 total yards over a full season--and remember, that was when he was not fully the go-to back. Certainly not apples to apples, but worth noting none the less.IMO, Taylor should see the ball 18 times rushing and another 3 receiving per game. Split the difference and call it 21 times per game. If he were to play in all 16 games, that would be 336 touches.He's currently going as the #21 RB off the board. Are there really 20 other RB that will see that many touches with a real chance to get even more? His ADP is 3.09 in 12-team leagues (at least for now).IMO, this is Lamont Jordan revisited. People last year were saying the same things and Jordan was a 3rd round pick in many leagues.
Cool. I just thought it was real interesting that all the guys you brought up were high enough picks (Lamar Smith was an early 3rd rounder) that other teams could easily grab those players because they think there is obviously potential. I don't remember any of those guys signing for big money, but I could be wrong.Lamont signed a $27.5 million deal over 5 years with $11 million guaranteed and Chester signed for $14.1 million over 4 years with $5.6 guaranteed. There is definitely some wiggle room for the Vikings if Taylor doesn't work out.
I am going to say this again and again...Fason was the GL back for Tice, not Childress. We have no idea if Childress sees him as a goaline back or a third down back or an everydown back. We need to wait and see before we can say what he is or isn't. The only opportunity he got last year to run the ball outside of goaline was unimpressive, so before people say Fason is the next Walter Payton, lets see what he can do with a coach not named Tice.Hyjack and rantCiatrick Fason, he's more than a GL back.over...please resume Taylor talk.
