Is Colt McCoy a Franchise QB? (1 Viewer)

[orangecrush15]

I've been going back and watching tape on a lot of the young QB's in preparation for my first IDP Dynasty league. My strategy going into the auction is to target Matt Ryan as my starter, which will hopefully allow me to have some extra cash to spend on RB and WR. I feel pretty confident about Ryan's NFL future, and I think the addition of Julio Jones and a receiving threat out of the backfield like Jacquizz Rodgers will translate to a career year for him in 2011. I want to go young for my back up and in watching tape I've come away very impressed with Colt McCoy. I saw McCoy consistently progress nicely through his reads, make good decisions, and handle pressure nicely for a rookie QB. I know the arm strength could hold him back a little, but in a West Coast system like the one Pat Schurmur employs I really think McCoy could flourish. I'm going to draft him no matter what because he'll likely go for next to nothing in my auction, but should I feel safe with him as my backup behind Ryan, or should I be targeting someone else instead?

Here's some tape I found on YouTube if you're interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WSJ2xmYoMw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlIpohoRdGM

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

I'd feel more comfortable with McCoy as my #3 (I have him ranked in the 20-25 area for dynasty QB's. I'll typically try to snatch up 2 of my Top 10-12 QB's for dynasty leagues and grab a 20+ ranked thereafter as my 3.

I never thought he'd be as successful as he was last year (I really didn't expect that level of success at any point in his NFL career). Just my opinion is his upside isn't enough for me to think of him as a fantasy backup QB. I probably won't have him on my roster as I think a lot less of him than most. If he were starting in the NFL 2-3 years from now I'd be surprised. I think he's going to be a candidate to be upgraded upon every year.

I like targeting Ryan and think you'll be fine at QB1 for quite awhile.

 

[FUBAR]

I think he'll be a fine backup if you have a stud starter. I wouldn't want to rely on him as part of a QBBC but you'll be fine with him and Ryan. Maybe take an older QB as well to hedge a little, but don't spend much on him - McNabb or Hasselbeck as your 3rd and IMO you've got a cheap but workable group.

 

[No Way Jose]

I recently traded Sanchez for McCoy in a dynasty league as my back up behind Rodgers. They had the same bye weeks and was looking for another option to Sanchez. I think he could have a higher ceiling than Sanchez and thought I would roll the dice. I personally don't put too much stock in a backup QB. If you get a guy like Ryan, I see no need to try and draft another top 10-12 QB. I would prefer to draft my #3 wr or RB and puck up a guy like McCoy or one of the rookie QB's and then pick up a veteran like Bulger/Hasslebeck/McNabb in the very late rounds. I guess the moral of the story is if you feel like Ryan can be a top QB, then don't waste a 7th or 8th round pick to be his back up. And if you want Ryan, I would suggest targeting him in the 5th round because he won't make it to the 6th.

 

[sspunisher]

He surprised me in his first start vs the Steelers. Yea he threw 1 TD and 2 INTs, but I think he almost threw for 300 yards.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I think he can be a serviceable later QB2 but would be surprised if he lasted more than 3-4 years as an NFL starter. The WCO should help his completion % but he struggled with accuracy and especially arm strength on all the deep throws attempted against New England. Even guys like Joe Montana and Steve Young had the arm strength to throw the deep ball but were also accurate with them. He had at least 1 INT dropped and while he managed to fit throws into tight coverage, I think he'd struggle against tougher defenses like Baltimore, the Jets, etc.

The more I watched him in the NE and PIT games linked, the more surprised I was how aggressive and gunslinger like he was. He tried to put throws into some very tight windows and probably should have thrown more INTs as a result.

He's at best using his mobility to set up screens or roll out and lead the receiver towards the sideline. Being a rookie, I think this will improve, but he needs to improve his accuracy on deep balls and arm strength in general if he wants to move up to a higher QB2/low QB1. I also noticed he tended to hold onto the ball, no surprise since he was a rookie, but he was also inaccurate on several throws including throwing to the back shoulder on quick slants.

 

[captain_amazing]

This could use a poll..... and yes, IMO he is a franchise QB. Watching him against the Pats last season, I was really impressed by his ability to extend plays (reminds me of Sanchez) and his decision-making skills for his age. Of course, that was one game, but it really left an impression.

 

[The Man With No Name]

His completion % was 60.8 as a rookie* which is very good. Over 70% each of his last 2 years of college. I don't think accuracy will be a problem. Not having a rifle won't help, so decision making is probably what will make him successful or just another qb.

*Better than Bradford, Flacco, Freeman, Sanchez recently.......and a lot more depending on how far back you want to go.

 

[Sergeant Spelt]

too early to say. considering he was working with one of the most one-dimensional, unimaginative offensive schemes in recent NFL history, and a terrible right side of the line, I think he did pretty well.

Floor - Chad Pennington

Ceiling - Drew Brees

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Floor - Chad PenningtonCeiling - Drew Brees

Really nice comps and range of possibilities IMO. I suspect he's more Pennington than Brees, but if the Browns ever find a couple legit NFL WRs he could surprise.

 

[Chest Rockwell]

Rich Gannon with a better arm.

Colt already has one of the quickest releases in the NFL. And contrary to popular belief, arm strength can be developed. His football IQ is off the charts, has a knack for the moment, and has the scrambling ability/footwork which will allow him to remain upright while he's learning his craft.

He'll be a perennial 65%+ passer and a low end QB1 within 3 years. Again, he has the potential to post Gannonesque numbers (Gannon finished no worse than QB4 from '99 - '02 and averaged 340 fantasy points over that 4 year span).

 

[DawnBTVS]

Gannon was also working with guys like Tim Brown and Jerry Rice at WR so he had legit weapons to work with. Something McCoy doesn't have. Gannon was also an 11 year veteran by 1999 who had done very little to almost nothing in his NFL career.

5 of his 8 starts came against the Steelers twice, the Saints, the Jets, and the Ravens.

Combined: 85/150 (56.7%) for 918 yards (6.12 YPA) and 3 TD vs 8 INT. This included his debut game where he had to throw (in an eventual 28-10 loss) and padded his numbers going 23/33 for 281 yards with 1 TD to 2 INT.

He was marginal against New England (174 yards and 1 rushing TD), decent against a Jaguars 28th Pass D (241 with 1 TD and 1 INT), and good against a Bengals 14th Pass D (243 yards with 2 TD).

- He has mobility and he's mostly accurate although not yet "accurate" in terms of ball placement to his receivers. His deep ball is very questionable right now and it's hard to argue it'll improve without the right weapons.

- He plays in a tough division (Ravens & Steelers twice) and a tough conference in general. Last year he had several tough opponents and odds are pretty favorable that he won't get to feast on the AFC South/NFC West like he will this season very often.

- A lot of posters here are talking about how his upside is Rich Gannon/Drew Brees and I personally doubt that. I think his upside is more Chad Pennington or Jeff Garcia, a QB who will more often than not be a QB2 in most leagues but given the right factors, could flourish for a couple seasons as a middle to low end QB1. I just do not see him as the type of QB who can throw for 3,600+ yards with 21+ TDs year after year to stay in the QB1 talk. His rushing ability might help but I think that would end up just making him comparable to a David Garrard FF type QB.

 

[orangecrush15]

I like the Jeff Garcia comp, another possible one that I thought of: Jake Plummer.

-On the shorter side for an NFL QB

-Good mobility and ability to extend play with legs

-Better when throwing outside the pocket

-Willingness to throw the ball into tight coverages

The only big difference is that McCoy is going to have a significantly higher completion % than Jake the Snake, who has a career % of 57.1.

The interesting thing about guys like McCoy is that being drafted in the third round, he wasn't really drafted as a "franchise" QB. The Browns have far less tied up in him financially than they would in a first round quarterback. So if he has a bad year this year, they could be drafting his replacement in April, whereas guys like Bradford and Newton will be given much longer to succeed. Jimmy Clausen is a good example of this. Since he wasn't drafted in the first round, the organization was far less invested in him financially. Still, it's kind of amazing to me that Clausen is already out a job. I think he's still a better prospect than Newton, and could still have a nice future as a starter if he's able to get out of Carolina.