Slim_Shady
Footballguy
He just got dropped in one of my leagues and haven't been following the Cards. Has he hit a wall?
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Is Fitz washed up? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Slim_Shady
- Start date
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I don't know what's going on with Fitz. He hasn't had an elite season since 2011. He was dinged last season but played in most games, so how dinged was he really? Sure seems like he's lost some steps. Is the new diet affecting him? I miss the days of 1400 yards.
Someone summed it up pretty good in another thread about Fitzgerald. Bottom line is Fitz was never a very fast receiver and he seems to have lost a step or two.
They showed a closeup of Fitz the other day and I noticed his arms were enormous. I suspect that between age and bulking up he has lost a couple of steps
They showed a closeup of Fitz the other day and I noticed his arms were enormous. I suspect that between age and bulking up he has lost a couple of steps
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I voted no but Im not sure if he'll turn it around this year. I just don't think he's washed up from watching him play
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
Poll should be top 20 or not.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
If Kurt Warner was magically transported back to playing age you would see how good he is again. Wrong place, wrong coach, wrong QB.
football_genus
Footballguy
It's not just about quality of QB, it's also style. Floyd and Brown are both vertical threats, while Fitz is more of a possession receiver at this point. Thus far the NFL leaders in percentage of deep passes are (1) Stanton and (2) Palmer. I'm not sure how much of that is the offensive scheme, and how much is the QBs (especially Stanton).
You have to think that two good deep threats will open up the short-passing game at some point. I'm not sure Stanton can capitalize on that, but I bet Palmer can.
(I voted washed up, but I think he could be a low-end WR2 still, so more like not top-20).
You have to think that two good deep threats will open up the short-passing game at some point. I'm not sure Stanton can capitalize on that, but I bet Palmer can.
(I voted washed up, but I think he could be a low-end WR2 still, so more like not top-20).
OP You should pick him up.
I think when there's a thread every year here asking if some awesome veteran WR's career is fading, we all pretty much know it is but don't want to admit it.
A new QB could breathe some life into his game. He does have an infamous offseason workout ritual and is certainly skilled enough, but if ever a player needed a change of scenery.
I think when there's a thread every year here asking if some awesome veteran WR's career is fading, we all pretty much know it is but don't want to admit it.
A new QB could breathe some life into his game. He does have an infamous offseason workout ritual and is certainly skilled enough, but if ever a player needed a change of scenery.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
No, I don't think he is washed up, but I think the severe drop-off in his production likely comes from a variety of factors:
1. While not washed up, he is 31 now and likely has lost a little bit of speed and quickness.
2. The young WRs they have there are really good and getting a lot of targets.
3. It's very possible that defenses still defend Fitzgerald like he is a number 1 WR, thereby making it even easier for those really good young WRs to get open and the ball thrown to them.
4. Bruce Arians offense spreads the ball around. He doesn't call plays specifically for WRs; he calls pass plays that are designed to go to the open WR.
1. While not washed up, he is 31 now and likely has lost a little bit of speed and quickness.
2. The young WRs they have there are really good and getting a lot of targets.
3. It's very possible that defenses still defend Fitzgerald like he is a number 1 WR, thereby making it even easier for those really good young WRs to get open and the ball thrown to them.
4. Bruce Arians offense spreads the ball around. He doesn't call plays specifically for WRs; he calls pass plays that are designed to go to the open WR.
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Courtweeks87
Footballguy
That's who I'm hoping there talking about cause Fitzgerald is still a great wr he just doesn't have a great qb that gives him chances to prove it
football_genus
Footballguy
Fitz: 10 catches, 21 targets, 107 yards, 0 TDs
Floyd: 11 catches, 22 targets, 252 yards, 0 TDs
Brown: 9 catches, 15 targets, 109 yards, 3 TDs
Fitz is just 1 target short of leading the team. He is averaging just 5 yards per target, which is awful (NFL average is around 7, and is probably higher for WRs). Floyd and Brown have both produced very well on a per-target basis. In fact, Floyd is among the leaders in yards/target.
Obviously receiver stats are difficult to interpret because they don't include how open the player is, what routes he runs, the accuracy of the throws he sees, and the coverage he faces. But Fitzgerald has been less productive than his teammates despite seeing similar targets.
Floyd: 11 catches, 22 targets, 252 yards, 0 TDs
Brown: 9 catches, 15 targets, 109 yards, 3 TDs
Fitz is just 1 target short of leading the team. He is averaging just 5 yards per target, which is awful (NFL average is around 7, and is probably higher for WRs). Floyd and Brown have both produced very well on a per-target basis. In fact, Floyd is among the leaders in yards/target.
Obviously receiver stats are difficult to interpret because they don't include how open the player is, what routes he runs, the accuracy of the throws he sees, and the coverage he faces. But Fitzgerald has been less productive than his teammates despite seeing similar targets.
sports_fan
Footballguy
i don't think he'll have another 1000+ yard season but he hasn't missed a regular season game in over 6 years and will get a good number tds per year. no longer elite yet still a good guy to have
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Unless you are desperate for a wideout you shouldn't bother - I don't see any change in Fitz, still the best hands out there BUT with Floyd continuing to improve and rookie John Brown getting open the AZ quarterbacks are looking for the open receiver and not trying to force things to Fitzgerald.
He will have some good games along the way but you will never know when to play him or when to expect 6 points or 16
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with Fitz that a change of scenery wouldn't fix.
But in AZ? Yeah -- washed up.
But in AZ? Yeah -- washed up.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I voted yes, but thought 30 was a bit low.GreenBaySnackers said:
I'd be nervous rolling with him as my WR2 in a 12 team. I'd be OK with him as my WR3.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Doesn't "washed up" mean he can't play anymore?
He can clearly play (remember the one handed catch in EZ in week one?) but in a situation where he isn't featured anymore. Both Stanton and Palmer don't even look his way much, so he just isn't getting the targets. If Fitz were on a different team like the Colts, I believe he could still produce elite numbers. But right now Fitz isn't even a serviceable #3WR.
As a Raider I would LOVE to have him!
He can clearly play (remember the one handed catch in EZ in week one?) but in a situation where he isn't featured anymore. Both Stanton and Palmer don't even look his way much, so he just isn't getting the targets. If Fitz were on a different team like the Colts, I believe he could still produce elite numbers. But right now Fitz isn't even a serviceable #3WR.
As a Raider I would LOVE to have him!
Still too early to draw conclusions.
Week one was clearly a mystery. Palmer gone, replaced by mediocre backup.
Week two he had 10 targets and was an inch from the end zone.
Week three another mystery target-wise against a reasonably tough defense.
As someone else pointed out, that one-handed grab in the end zone showed he still has sick skills. IMO until there are two weeks in a row with Palmer at QB, it is impossible to draw any conclusions what Fitz's role will be in this offense. Could still end up anywhere from high-end WR2 to WR4.
Week one was clearly a mystery. Palmer gone, replaced by mediocre backup.
Week two he had 10 targets and was an inch from the end zone.
Week three another mystery target-wise against a reasonably tough defense.
As someone else pointed out, that one-handed grab in the end zone showed he still has sick skills. IMO until there are two weeks in a row with Palmer at QB, it is impossible to draw any conclusions what Fitz's role will be in this offense. Could still end up anywhere from high-end WR2 to WR4.
T with T
Footballguy
yes could flourish in system designed to get him ball. Cards shy away from him although he is a strength. Floyd, brown are getting more targets... Say Fitz went to Minn or a team that could really use him right he could be top14 again but we will have to wait and see. To those who drafted Fitz, time to get a back up plan.remember when Randy Moss went from the Raiders to the Patriots? That's Fitz next year.
grateful zed
Footballguy
he could resurrect brady's career.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
Are we so sure that he's really being underutilized?
That would almost have to mean he's running around out there open all the time but the QB has blinders on for some reason. I just find that hard to believe. He's Larry freakin' Fitzgerald. Neither Palmer nor Stanton are going to sit there an ignore him if he's getting open, especially to opt for a lower-percentage pass down field.
I think it's a lot more that he isn't getting as open as he used to, so they are shying away from forcing him the ball. Now, if Floyd and Brown are open, then Palmer and Stanton SHOULD be progressing past Fitz in the reads to hit the open man. Which in turn means he isn't underutilized. The team wants to win, not force feed Fitz the ball because his fantasy owners are restless.
Is it possible that Palmer and Stanton are both so poor at reading the coverage that they are missing him when he's open? That's possible I guess. But I think the simplest answer is probably the correct one. He's just on the decline.
Slim_Shady
Footballguy
Due to popular demand I updated the choice to top 20. Seems like a pretty even split among the fantasy community. Won't Palmer be back soon and could that help improve his stats this year?
I don't think he's getting the separation that he used to get ... in game one, Palmer threw to EIGHT different receivers.
Basically he just threw to whomever was open. Fitz caught one pass because he was never open. That leads me to believe he isn't getting separation. It's especially concerning because I'm pretty sure Patrick Peterson was on Floyd the whole game, and Fitz had the 2nd or 3rd CB on him (since he was operating out of the slot a bunch).
I have him in 3/12 and traded him in two of them. I actually got Cooks for Fitz in one league (non-PPR), that one surprised me.
Basically he just threw to whomever was open. Fitz caught one pass because he was never open. That leads me to believe he isn't getting separation. It's especially concerning because I'm pretty sure Patrick Peterson was on Floyd the whole game, and Fitz had the 2nd or 3rd CB on him (since he was operating out of the slot a bunch).
I have him in 3/12 and traded him in two of them. I actually got Cooks for Fitz in one league (non-PPR), that one surprised me.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Really? That surprises me. Floyd was split out wide every snap and by all accounts is the top dog in ARZ.You might want to think about that one again.
Peterson shadowed Fitz, even inside in the slot, for the entire game? I don't believe that. Do you have some proof somewhere? Top cornerbacks almost never kick in to the slot.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I have it on good authority that Patrick Peterson is a stud cornerback for the Arizona Cardinals, and the last time I checked, a defense goes against the other team's offense in real games, not their own.Really? That surprises me. Floyd was split out wide every snap and by all accounts is the top dog in ARZ.You might want to think about that one again.
Peterson shadowed Fitz, even inside in the slot, for the entire game? I don't believe that. Do you have some proof somewhere? Top cornerbacks almost never kick in to the slot.
Beetlejuice
Footballguy
I'm not sure how this answers the question...but honest answer I opened this thread expecting to answer a poll question about Ryan Fitzpatrick and not Larry Fitzgerald who didn't even cross my mind.
And I live in Arizona.
And I live in Arizona.
CincyBengal
Footballguy
I dropped Andrew Hawkins in my 12 team ppr for Fitz after he hit the waiver wire. Looking for WR3 production out of him or I will be kicking myself for dropping Hawkins. TIme will tell, Fitzgerald is just too good to not produce in my opinion. Even at ths point of his career.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Really? That surprises me. Floyd was split out wide every snap and by all accounts is the top dog in ARZ.You might want to think about that one again.
Peterson shadowed Fitz, even inside in the slot, for the entire game? I don't believe that. Do you have some proof somewhere? Top cornerbacks almost never kick in to the slot.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
My hunch is most of the people who think Fitz is washed up think Peterson is covering his own teammate and that Fitzpatrick is worthy of talking about because of his stellar career.
If there's one thing I've learned over the years is that people overreact like crazy and lately, if you are over 28 any bad stretch of games or an injury means you are done. Andre Johnson was wrote off 3 years ago, Reggie Wayne, etc, etc. And those guys are a lot older than him.
He'll be fine but I agree that he probably needs out of Arizona to really turn it around. He's got some 1200 yard seasons left in him.
If there's one thing I've learned over the years is that people overreact like crazy and lately, if you are over 28 any bad stretch of games or an injury means you are done. Andre Johnson was wrote off 3 years ago, Reggie Wayne, etc, etc. And those guys are a lot older than him.
He'll be fine but I agree that he probably needs out of Arizona to really turn it around. He's got some 1200 yard seasons left in him.
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T with T
Footballguy
yea I think phenomena got a little confused GhostI have it on good authority that Patrick Peterson is a stud cornerback for the Arizona Cardinals, and the last time I checked, a defense goes against the other team's offense in real games, not their own.Really? That surprises me. Floyd was split out wide every snap and by all accounts is the top dog in ARZ.You might want to think about that one again.
Peterson shadowed Fitz, even inside in the slot, for the entire game? I don't believe that. Do you have some proof somewhere? Top cornerbacks almost never kick in to the slot.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
So after watching the all-22 of the SF game, it seems like there are a few problems.
1. Stanton does not read the field that well. He pretty much looks for his first read and/or one area of the field and goes there. If he does not attempt that throw, the play is ####ed. I don't know how much of that is him or how much is scheme.
2. Fitz is not getting open all that much Honestly, some of his routes don't look very crisp or like he's trying all that hard. It is possible that this is part of the game plan and he is more of a decoy. For whatever reason, he does not seem to be Stanton's first look very often, which is a little odd, because they were feeding him in the Giants' game.
Physically, Fitz looks fine and looked good on the last drive until he fumbled. ARians really wants to get the ball downfield and Fitz is not running those routes. There is not much in the intermediate game. There is still a role for him in the short passing game, though, based on what I can see in these past 2 games.
1. Stanton does not read the field that well. He pretty much looks for his first read and/or one area of the field and goes there. If he does not attempt that throw, the play is ####ed. I don't know how much of that is him or how much is scheme.
2. Fitz is not getting open all that much Honestly, some of his routes don't look very crisp or like he's trying all that hard. It is possible that this is part of the game plan and he is more of a decoy. For whatever reason, he does not seem to be Stanton's first look very often, which is a little odd, because they were feeding him in the Giants' game.
Physically, Fitz looks fine and looked good on the last drive until he fumbled. ARians really wants to get the ball downfield and Fitz is not running those routes. There is not much in the intermediate game. There is still a role for him in the short passing game, though, based on what I can see in these past 2 games.
Case re-opened
From ESPN
Of the 39 NFL players who have been targeted at least four times in the red zone this season, 30 of them have at least one touchdown. And 18 of them (46 percent) have scored multiple times during these opportunities. In general, red zone targets are a great way to judge if your player's value is being artificially inflated or deflated based on his actual production in this area of the field.
For instance, Larry Fitzgerald has been targeted six times so far this season in the red zone. He currently has zero receiving touchdowns. The average number of red zone receiving touchdowns scored for receivers with at least six red zone targets is 2.5. This equates to an expected 15 fantasy points based on the leaguewide average production for those players. Those "missing" points would give Fitzgerald 23 fantasy points, which would place him tied for 40th among wide receivers. Then add another eight points (his would-be per-game average) to compensate for his bye week and he'd be the 25th-best wide receiver. Those are subjective adjustments, but in the end calculating what is different from the norm will allow you to identify that Fitzgerald has been more unlucky than bad and therefore makes a good buy-low candidate.
From ESPN
Of the 39 NFL players who have been targeted at least four times in the red zone this season, 30 of them have at least one touchdown. And 18 of them (46 percent) have scored multiple times during these opportunities. In general, red zone targets are a great way to judge if your player's value is being artificially inflated or deflated based on his actual production in this area of the field.
For instance, Larry Fitzgerald has been targeted six times so far this season in the red zone. He currently has zero receiving touchdowns. The average number of red zone receiving touchdowns scored for receivers with at least six red zone targets is 2.5. This equates to an expected 15 fantasy points based on the leaguewide average production for those players. Those "missing" points would give Fitzgerald 23 fantasy points, which would place him tied for 40th among wide receivers. Then add another eight points (his would-be per-game average) to compensate for his bye week and he'd be the 25th-best wide receiver. Those are subjective adjustments, but in the end calculating what is different from the norm will allow you to identify that Fitzgerald has been more unlucky than bad and therefore makes a good buy-low candidate.
Max Power
Footballguy
Good stats, this is what I'll use to talk him up. In the right situation, I'd be a buyer on the guy. I own him in dynasty and I've just wasted too many bad starts on him in the past 2 years. I'm ready to turn the page.
For the poll - He probably wont ever be a top 20 player again, but that doesn't mean he wont be productive for years to come down the road. Remember we all gave up on Steve Smith a few years back...
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
mike freeman @mikefreemanNFL Oct 4
AFC scout on Larry Fitzgerald: "Still a great player. There are two dozens teams that would take him now. Cardinals misusing him."
AFC scout on Larry Fitzgerald: "Still a great player. There are two dozens teams that would take him now. Cardinals misusing him."
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Continuing to insert Fitz in your line up is futile at this point. His situation is so bad at this point that there is no upside in the foreseeable future. To date his most productive game is 8 points. He is a lot like Spiller, great talent but no production. He will be an anchor to your fantasy team. Very frustrating!
Spike
Footballguy
Peterson covered Floyd? An ARI CB covered an ARI WR?Really? That surprises me. Floyd was split out wide every snap and by all accounts is the top dog in ARZ.You might want to think about that one again.
Peterson shadowed Fitz, even inside in the slot, for the entire game? I don't believe that. Do you have some proof somewhere? Top cornerbacks almost never kick in to the slot.
