Is Jorge Posada a HOFer? (1 Viewer)

[shadyridr]

I used to when people said this last year or even the year before. But now I think he may just be one. How many 35 year old catchers in the history of baseball have put up numbers like him. And he consistently puts up great numbers every year. He isnt the fielder like Rodriguez and isnt the hitter like Piazza but I think he could be a HOFer. What does everyone else think?

 

[Wooderson]

All I know is that he was the last catcher taken in my draft. And I am very happy with his production.

And now I see the Yanks moved him to the #5 spot.

 

[Frostillicus]

If he keeps producing for several more years I suppose he has an outside shot, but I don't really see it.

He barely cracks 1,000 career hits and 200 home runs.

 

[shadyridr]

If he keeps producing for several more years I suppose he has an outside shot, but I don't really see it. He barely cracks 1,000 career hits and 200 home runs.

Agreed but where does his career numbers compare with other HOF catchers?

 

[Reality Football]

The Hall of Very Good, yes. He just got started too late. Didn't play a full season until he was 26. He'd have to play a lot more years to have decent enough career totals.

Still, a lot of folks have incorrectly predicted a sudden decline for Jorge in the last few years.

 

[Reality Football]

If he keeps producing for several more years I suppose he has an outside shot, but I don't really see it. He barely cracks 1,000 career hits and 200 home runs.

Agreed but where does his career numbers compare with other HOF catchers?

His career to this point compares most favorably to Carlton Fisk, but Fisk played until he was 45 and thus padded his career numbers quite a bit.Posada is similar to Gary Carter too, but again, he'll have to have some longevity to post similar career totals.Ironically, Posada might end up with totals similar to Joe Torre, and thus will be one of the borderline candidates for the HOF.

 

[David Yudkin]

If he keeps producing for several more years I suppose he has an outside shot, but I don't really see it. He barely cracks 1,000 career hits and 200 home runs.

Agreed but where does his career numbers compare with other HOF catchers?

His career to this point compares most favorably to Carlton Fisk, but Fisk played until he was 45 and thus padded his career numbers quite a bit.Posada is similar to Gary Carter too, but again, he'll have to have some longevity to post similar career totals.Ironically, Posada might end up with totals similar to Joe Torre, and thus will be one of the borderline candidates for the HOF.

Posada has 1215 hits and 796 RBI. Carter had 2092 hits and 1225 RBI. Torre had 2342 hits and 1185 RBI. IMO, Posada is not even close to the other two at this point and will be 36 soon.

 

[guru_007]

Not even close, imo.

Posada is a 4 time all-star

Zero time gold glove winner

And has only placed in the top 20 in MVP voting, once

Fisk:

11 time all-star

One gold glove

Placed in top 15 in MVP voting - 7 times

Carter:

11 time all-star

3 gold gloves

Placed in top 20 in MVP voting - 7 times

In my opinion, in order to be voted into the hall of fame, you should be one of the best players in the game at the time you played, or at the very least, the best at your position. Jorge Posada has had a very nice career, but having him in the hall of fame is frankly, ridiculous.

 

[shadyridr]

Posada has been the 3rd best catcher in baseball for his entire career (behind Rodriguez & Piazza, who are both HOFers). That being said I didnt realize his career #s paled in comparison to Carter & Fisk. So I'll say I agree that he is not a HOFer.

 

[Sammy3469]

Posada has been the 3rd best catcher in baseball for his entire career (behind Rodriguez & Piazza, who are both HOFers). That being said I didnt realize his career #s paled in comparison to Carter & Fisk. So I'll say I agree that he is not a HOFer.

His bigger problem may be the fact that Mauer and McCann could both be putting up HOF stats by the time he's eligible, thus making his case even worse.

 

[posty]

Nope.

 

[Funkley]

Here's a list of his career stat comparable players from Baseball Reference.

Mike Stanley (954)

Eric Chavez (915)

Roy Campanella (911) *

Rich Aurilia (909)

Adrian Beltre (904)

Phil Nevin (903)

Mike Lieberthal (901)

Rico Petrocelli (897)

Walker Cooper (896)

Tony Batista (896)

Clearly Campanella stands out as a point in Posada's favor here but Campanella dominated his time period (1948 - 1957) similar to how Piazza has dominated the majority of Posada's time period. Overall I think it reinforces my opinion of him being a very good, allstar player but not a hall of famer.

 

[Funkley]

Posada has been the 3rd best catcher in baseball for his entire career (behind Rodriguez & Piazza, who are both HOFers). That being said I didnt realize his career #s paled in comparison to Carter & Fisk. So I'll say I agree that he is not a HOFer.

His bigger problem may be the fact that Mauer and McCann could both be putting up HOF stats by the time he's eligible, thus making his case even worse.

Good point. Assuming both are still catchers by then.EDIT TO ADD: Actually, I think that is a point in Posada's favor. He's been able to remain at catcher his whole career while guys like Mauer will likely be moved at some point due to health concerns. Still falls short of Hall consideration though.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Right now, no. He would need an MVP this year, and somehow be central to the yanks overtaking the Sox to gain any traction on that front.

But I'll go with the least scientific means, and I've watched him since 95. I never thought while watching him, this is a Hall of Famer. I never really considered him getting his number retired, though maybe he does deserve some consideratoin.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Nope

and if he played for say the marlins, it wouldnt even be worth debating

 

[wilked]

Not even close, imo.

 

[Funkley]

Nopeand if he played for say the marlins, it wouldnt even be worth debating

Which, if true, is ironic because one of the reasons that IRod will go into the hall is because he did play for the Marlins.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Nopeand if he played for say the marlins, it wouldnt even be worth debating

Which, if true, is ironic because one of the reasons that IRod will go into the hall is because he did play for the Marlins.

Not because he was the best catcher in his era and maybe the best defensive catcher ever not named Bench?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Right now, no. He would need an MVP this year, and somehow be central to the yanks overtaking the Sox to gain any traction on that front.

But I'll go with the least scientific means, and I've watched him since 95. I never thought while watching him, this is a Hall of Famer. I never really considered him getting his number retired, though maybe he does deserve some consideratoin.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Right now, no. He would need an MVP this year, and somehow be central to the yanks overtaking the Sox to gain any traction on that front.

But I'll go with the least scientific means, and I've watched him since 95. I never thought while watching him, this is a Hall of Famer. I never really considered him getting his number retired, though maybe he does deserve some consideratoin.

Jorge's problem, fair or not, but it's a factor, is that I think he's seen as more of a contributor than a driving force behind the Yankees of the last decade. He did get that major MVP push a few years back, and this is flat out the best he's ever hit in his life. The Yankees are in a place right now where if they come back in the division, he seems like he'd be a major part of it. He needs that recognition as far as being one of THE guys who make this team go, so he would benefit from a comeback resulting in division title. But the second point, to me as a Yankee fan, its hard to think of a lifelong Yankee making the hall if he doesn't get his number retired. Sort of an inital go round specifically related to fan consideration. Of this last decade, the only for sure numbers I see are Torre, Rivera and Jeter. Bernie Williams would be in the next tier along with Pettite, who if he's is here to stay for another 5 or 6 years or ends up retiring here even after 3 or 4, I think he'd make it in the argument too. Posada I guess would be right there with O'Neill, but I hadn't seen him making the cut.

 

[Da Guru]

Good player..no doubt. HOF? no

 

[Colin Dowling]

No. If they'd won a couple more rings, he would have a better case (as would a few other guys on the team). As it is now, no.

 

[shuke]

LOL

 

[Breed]

LOL

 

[rabidfireweasel]

This is absurd homerism.

 

[Reality Football]

Right now, no. He would need an MVP this year, and somehow be central to the yanks overtaking the Sox to gain any traction on that front.

But I'll go with the least scientific means, and I've watched him since 95. I never thought while watching him, this is a Hall of Famer. I never really considered him getting his number retired, though maybe he does deserve some consideratoin.

Consideratoin, it's a new designer steroid. Jorge's such a swell guy, he DOES deserve it.

 

[Workhorse]

He could join Gene Tenace in the "Hall of Pretty Good Catchers".

But Hall of Fame?

Nope.

 

[Sammy3469]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

Posada is a couple months away from turning 36. Does anyone think he stands a chance of playing 5 more productive years let alone 10?For those that buy into some of the HOF evaluation tools . . .Black Ink: Batting - 4 (404) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (992) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.9 (266) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 76.0 (219) (Likely HOFer > 100) His best attribute is that he's a multi-time WS winner, but so are a lot of the other Yankees.

 

[Knightro]

I used to when people said this last year or even the year before. But now I think he may just be one. How many 35 year old catchers in the history of baseball have put up numbers like him. And he consistently puts up great numbers every year. He isnt the fielder like Rodriguez and isnt the hitter like Piazza but I think he could be a HOFer. What does everyone else think?

There is actually a trend of catchers having career years later in their career....especially in the power categories. Catching is the most demanding of the positions so catchers aren't able to focus on their hitting as much as other position players because they spend time working with the pitchers and such. John Wathan - look at his age 32 and 33 years (which would equate to 35-36 nowadays in the enhancements/supplements era)

Gregg Zaun - has his best season at age 35

some guys have that one more season of glory at the late age and then crash hard. Jason Varitek is quickly heading down this path - and I think Posada would be as well if he were playing in Fenway. Posada enjoys the friendly confines of the short porch in RF while Varitek has the worse of the two situations in Fenway to RF.

Posada is striking out less this year (17%) of the time than at any point in his career. He is also hitting more line drives (22%) than he has over the last three seasons (17, 17, and 20). The last time he was this high was 2002 when he had a 21% LD rate when he hit .281 with 30 HR.

This year, his BABIP is .420 right now and that is unsustainable but given the increased LD and the improved strikeout rate, I see no reason why he can't hit .300 over the course of the season.

 

[shuke]

No Bill Freehan = No Posada

 

[ThisGuy]

some guys have that one more season of glory at the late age and then crash hard. Jason Varitek is quickly heading down this path - and I think Posada would be as well if he were playing in Fenway. Posada enjoys the friendly confines of the short porch in RF while Varitek has the worse of the two situations in Fenway to RF

This is dumb. Both catchers are switch hitters. Both catchers play in hitter friendly parks, one for a righty, the other for a lefty. Neither one has an advantage over the other as far as ballparks go.

 

[ThisGuy]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

 

[Knightro]

some guys have that one more season of glory at the late age and then crash hard. Jason Varitek is quickly heading down this path - and I think Posada would be as well if he were playing in Fenway. Posada enjoys the friendly confines of the short porch in RF while Varitek has the worse of the two situations in Fenway to RF

This is dumb. Both catchers are switch hitters. Both catchers play in hitter friendly parks, one for a righty, the other for a lefty. Neither one shares an advantage over the other.

And both spend more time batting left handed. Which park would you prefer to hit in as a lefty? That's any easy choice. Posada suffers the worst when he has to hit RH given the fence goes from 318 to 399 from LF to LCF while Varitek enjoys the monster. However, both of these guys spend 80% of their time batting from the left side hence, advantage Posada.Posada has hit 107 of his 204 career homers in Yankee Stadium and has enjoyed a 105 OPS+ in his career at home compared to a 95 on the road. He has hit 149 of his 204 homeruns as a lefty with a .464 SLG%Conversely, Varitek has hit 91 of his career 134 homers as a lefty with a .438 SLG%Fenway Park becomes an anomaly in that it strongly favors hitters, except in terms of home runs, where it actually favors pitchers. In fact, Fenway is in the bottom 25% for HR Park Factor over the last three years (and was 29th in MLB in 2006 whereas Yankee Stadium was 13th).

 

[shadyridr]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

This number retiring #### has got to stop and soon or the Yankees will run out of numbers. #1 Billy Martin, #31 Dave Winfield, #49 Ron Guidry should all not be retired. Im sure theres more that Im not remembering. Retired #s should be reserved for legendary or HOF Yankees. From the group you mentioned above the only #s that should be retired are Bernie, Rivera, and Jeter. Not Posada, Pettitte, or ONeill.

 

[ThisGuy]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

This number retiring #### has got to stop and soon or the Yankees will run out of numbers. #1 Billy Martin, #31 Dave Winfield, #49 Ron Guidry should all not be retired. Im sure theres more that Im not remembering. Retired #s should be reserved for legendary or HOF Yankees. From the group you mentioned above the only #s that should be retired are Bernie, Rivera, and Jeter. Not Posada, Pettitte, or ONeill.

So you think Posada has a chance for the HOF, but shouldn't have his # retired?

 

[ThisGuy]

some guys have that one more season of glory at the late age and then crash hard. Jason Varitek is quickly heading down this path - and I think Posada would be as well if he were playing in Fenway. Posada enjoys the friendly confines of the short porch in RF while Varitek has the worse of the two situations in Fenway to RF

This is dumb. Both catchers are switch hitters. Both catchers play in hitter friendly parks, one for a righty, the other for a lefty. Neither one shares an advantage over the other.

And both spend more time batting left handed. Which park would you prefer to hit in as a lefty? That's any easy choice. Posada suffers the worst when he has to hit RH given the fence goes from 318 to 399 from LF to LCF while Varitek enjoys the monster. However, both of these guys spend 80% of their time batting from the left side hence, advantage Posada.Posada has hit 107 of his 204 career homers in Yankee Stadium and has enjoyed a 105 OPS+ in his career at home compared to a 95 on the road. He has hit 149 of his 204 homeruns as a lefty with a .464 SLG%Conversely, Varitek has hit 91 of his career 134 homers as a lefty with a .438 SLG%Fenway Park becomes an anomaly in that it strongly favors hitters, except in terms of home runs, where it actually favors pitchers. In fact, Fenway is in the bottom 25% for HR Park Factor over the last three years (and was 29th in MLB in 2006 whereas Yankee Stadium was 13th).

Wow with all the HR's the Yanks and Sox hit against each other, I thought it would be easier to hit them at Fenway. I also assumed Varitek was a more productive hitter than he has been. Posada has the advantage offensively.

 

[shadyridr]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

This number retiring #### has got to stop and soon or the Yankees will run out of numbers. #1 Billy Martin, #31 Dave Winfield, #49 Ron Guidry should all not be retired. Im sure theres more that Im not remembering. Retired #s should be reserved for legendary or HOF Yankees. From the group you mentioned above the only #s that should be retired are Bernie, Rivera, and Jeter. Not Posada, Pettitte, or ONeill.

So you think Posada has a chance for the HOF, but shouldn't have his # retired?

I dont necessarily think Posada is a HOFer. Just asking the question and looking at all the evidence posted in this thread Id say no.

 

[ThisGuy]

But now I think he may just be one.

 

[Power Monster]

Nope

 

[shadyridr]

But now I think he may just be one.

People in this thread changing my mind down?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

Posada is a couple months away from turning 36. Does anyone think he stands a chance of playing 5 more productive years let alone 10?For those that buy into some of the HOF evaluation tools . . .Black Ink: Batting - 4 (404) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (992) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.9 (266) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 76.0 (219) (Likely HOFer > 100) His best attribute is that he's a multi-time WS winner, but so are a lot of the other Yankees.

As I mentioned, Posada's HOF Monitor score is 76. Here are some other catchers for comparison . . .Berra 220.5Bench 214I-Rod 212.5Piazza 205Carter 135Ted Simmons 124.5Fisk 120.5Campanella 107.5Lance Parrish 107Bob Boone 102Tony Pena 97Santiago 93.5Munson 89Freehan 83

 

[Workhorse]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

Whoa, you think the Yankees will retire Andy Pettitte's number?That would be like the Patriots retiring Mike Vrabel's number.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Nah, not a HOFer. Hell of a catcher and will probably have his # retired w/ Bernie, Paul, Andy, Mo and DJ from the latest dynasty.

Whoa, you think the Yankees will retire Andy Pettitte's number?That would be like the Patriots retiring Mike Vrabel's number.

If he leads them to another World Series and goes another 4 or 5 years and retires as a Yankee, he's a cinch.

 

[ThisGuy]

But now I think he may just be one.

People in this thread changing my mind down?

OK...but I can't change my mind about A-Rod?

 

[Sammy3469]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

Posada is a couple months away from turning 36. Does anyone think he stands a chance of playing 5 more productive years let alone 10?For those that buy into some of the HOF evaluation tools . . .Black Ink: Batting - 4 (404) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (992) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.9 (266) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 76.0 (219) (Likely HOFer > 100) His best attribute is that he's a multi-time WS winner, but so are a lot of the other Yankees.

As I mentioned, Posada's HOF Monitor score is 76. Here are some other catchers for comparison . . .Berra 220.5Bench 214I-Rod 212.5Piazza 205Carter 135Ted Simmons 124.5Fisk 120.5Campanella 107.5Lance Parrish 107Bob Boone 102Tony Pena 97Santiago 93.5Munson 89Freehan 83

The interesting thing is that even if he goes back to his career averages for the rest of this year and then plays 3 more years (until he's 40), he should end easily exceed 100 on that scale. He'd get 45 more points just for being a catcher and could concievably play on a couple more playoff teams....that doesn't even take into account any real stats he'd accumulate over those years. I really have no clue how he'd be evaulated if/when he got to 150 on that scale (which looks attainable). At that point he'd either be the "worst" catcher in the hall or the best left out.

 

[igbomb]

Nopeand if he played for say the marlins, it wouldnt even be worth debating

Which, if true, is ironic because one of the reasons that IRod will go into the hall is because he did play for the Marlins.

If Rodriguez had never won a ring, he would still be a no-brainer HOF player.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

Posada is a couple months away from turning 36. Does anyone think he stands a chance of playing 5 more productive years let alone 10?For those that buy into some of the HOF evaluation tools . . .Black Ink: Batting - 4 (404) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (992) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.9 (266) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 76.0 (219) (Likely HOFer > 100) His best attribute is that he's a multi-time WS winner, but so are a lot of the other Yankees.

As I mentioned, Posada's HOF Monitor score is 76. Here are some other catchers for comparison . . .Berra 220.5Bench 214I-Rod 212.5Piazza 205Carter 135Ted Simmons 124.5Fisk 120.5Campanella 107.5Lance Parrish 107Bob Boone 102Tony Pena 97Santiago 93.5Munson 89Freehan 83

The interesting thing is that even if he goes back to his career averages for the rest of this year and then plays 3 more years (until he's 40), he should end easily exceed 100 on that scale. He'd get 45 more points just for being a catcher and could concievably play on a couple more playoff teams....that doesn't even take into account any real stats he'd accumulate over those years. I really have no clue how he'd be evaulated if/when he got to 150 on that scale (which looks attainable). At that point he'd either be the "worst" catcher in the hall or the best left out.

I'm not sure Posada's numbers will jump much more on this chart. Here are the criteria . . .- For Batting Average, 2.5 points for each season over .300, 5.0 for over .350, 15 for over .400. Minimum 100 games in a season to qualify.Slim chance of getting a few points here this year but he's never hit .300 in a season so I doubt he'll keep it up. - For hits, 5 points for each season of 200 or more hits. Not happening any time soon.- 3 points for each season of 100 RBI's and 3 points for each season of 100 runs. Outside chance of hitting 100 RBI but he's only done in once.- 10 points for 50 home runs, 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR. Not happening in my book.- 2 points for 45 doubles and 1 point for 35 doubles. He's hit a lot of doubles so far this year but it's been 5 years since he hit 35.- 8 points for each MVP award and 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award. Can't see him not making the All-Star team this year. That's three points for this year and probably next.- 2 points for a gold glove at C, SS, or 2B, and 1 point for any other gold glove. No Gold Gloves to date.- 6 points if they were the regular SS or C on a WS team, 5 points for 2B or CF, 3 for 3B, 2 for LF or RF, and 1 for 1B. I don't see the Yanks winning the WS this year.- 5 points if they were the regular SS or C on a League Championship (but not WS) team, 3 points for 2B or CF, 1 for 3B. Ditto for this one.- 2 points if they were the regular SS or C on a Division Championship team (but not WS or LCS), 1 points for 2B, CF, or 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF. I don't see the Yanks catching the Sox this year.- 6 points for leading the league in BA, 4 for HR or RBI, 3 for runs scored, 2 for hits or SB, and 1 for doubles and triples. I'm not seeing any of these . . . ever.- 50 points for 3,500 career hits, 40 for 3,000, 15 for 2,500, and 4 for 2,000. - 30 points for 600 career home runs, 20 for 500, 10 for 400, and 3 for 300. - 24 points for a lifetime BA over .330, 16 if over .315, and 8 if over .300. Won't be reaching any of those.- For tough defensive positions, 60 for 1800 games as a catcher, 45 for 1,600 games, 30 for 1,400, and 15 for 1,200 games caught. He recently passed 1200 games caught, so he'll get 15 more next year. I600 games is an interesting proposition but he's not getting any younger and I doubt he'll still be a regular catcher that far from now.- 30 points for 2100 games at 2B or SS, or 15 for 1,800 games. 15 points for 2,000 games at 3B. - An additional 15 points in the player has more than 2,500 games played at 2B, SS, or 3B. Not applicable.- Award 15 points if the player's batting average is over .275 and they have 1,500 or more games as a 2B, SS or C. Currently a long way away from 1500 games at C and average is under .275.As I see it, Posada will get 15 more points next year for games played. He should also be in 3 more all star games and maybe get 6-12 more points for catching for the Yankees if they do well. Add it all up and he may see 110 career points.

 

[Domination]

I don't think he is anywhere close to being a HOFer. He is a solid player and was an integral part of the Yankees being successful. I think that the AL is going to amke it hard for him to even make another AS game, with V Martinez, Mauer, & I Rod.

 

[Sammy3469]

I'll just throw this line out from a Nate Silver chat (the guy who does their PECOTA projections) over at bp yesterday:

It does seem safe to conclude, however, that he's (Posada) a guy who should have a long and fairly graceful decline phase, which could make for an interesting Hall of Fame case in 10 year's time.

If he really does play 10 more years, he'd be an interesting case.

Posada is a couple months away from turning 36. Does anyone think he stands a chance of playing 5 more productive years let alone 10?For those that buy into some of the HOF evaluation tools . . .Black Ink: Batting - 4 (404) (Average HOFer ≈ 27) Gray Ink: Batting - 20 (992) (Average HOFer ≈ 144) HOF Standards: Batting - 29.9 (266) (Average HOFer ≈ 50) HOF Monitor: Batting - 76.0 (219) (Likely HOFer > 100) His best attribute is that he's a multi-time WS winner, but so are a lot of the other Yankees.

As I mentioned, Posada's HOF Monitor score is 76. Here are some other catchers for comparison . . .Berra 220.5Bench 214I-Rod 212.5Piazza 205Carter 135Ted Simmons 124.5Fisk 120.5Campanella 107.5Lance Parrish 107Bob Boone 102Tony Pena 97Santiago 93.5Munson 89Freehan 83

The interesting thing is that even if he goes back to his career averages for the rest of this year and then plays 3 more years (until he's 40), he should end easily exceed 100 on that scale. He'd get 45 more points just for being a catcher and could concievably play on a couple more playoff teams....that doesn't even take into account any real stats he'd accumulate over those years. I really have no clue how he'd be evaulated if/when he got to 150 on that scale (which looks attainable). At that point he'd either be the "worst" catcher in the hall or the best left out.

I'm not sure Posada's numbers will jump much more on this chart. Here are the criteria . . .- For Batting Average, 2.5 points for each season over .300, 5.0 for over .350, 15 for over .400. Minimum 100 games in a season to qualify.Slim chance of getting a few points here this year but he's never hit .300 in a season so I doubt he'll keep it up. - For hits, 5 points for each season of 200 or more hits. Not happening any time soon.- 3 points for each season of 100 RBI's and 3 points for each season of 100 runs. Outside chance of hitting 100 RBI but he's only done in once.- 10 points for 50 home runs, 4 points for 40 HR, and 2 points for 30 HR. Not happening in my book.- 2 points for 45 doubles and 1 point for 35 doubles. He's hit a lot of doubles so far this year but it's been 5 years since he hit 35.- 8 points for each MVP award and 3 for each AllStar Game, and 1 point for a Rookie of the Year award. Can't see him not making the All-Star team this year. That's three points for this year and probably next.- 2 points for a gold glove at C, SS, or 2B, and 1 point for any other gold glove. No Gold Gloves to date.- 6 points if they were the regular SS or C on a WS team, 5 points for 2B or CF, 3 for 3B, 2 for LF or RF, and 1 for 1B. I don't see the Yanks winning the WS this year.- 5 points if they were the regular SS or C on a League Championship (but not WS) team, 3 points for 2B or CF, 1 for 3B. Ditto for this one.- 2 points if they were the regular SS or C on a Division Championship team (but not WS or LCS), 1 points for 2B, CF, or 3B. I don't have the OF distribution, so I give 1 points for OF. I don't see the Yanks catching the Sox this year.- 6 points for leading the league in BA, 4 for HR or RBI, 3 for runs scored, 2 for hits or SB, and 1 for doubles and triples. I'm not seeing any of these . . . ever.- 50 points for 3,500 career hits, 40 for 3,000, 15 for 2,500, and 4 for 2,000. - 30 points for 600 career home runs, 20 for 500, 10 for 400, and 3 for 300. - 24 points for a lifetime BA over .330, 16 if over .315, and 8 if over .300. Won't be reaching any of those.- For tough defensive positions, 60 for 1800 games as a catcher, 45 for 1,600 games, 30 for 1,400, and 15 for 1,200 games caught. He recently passed 1200 games caught, so he'll get 15 more next year. I600 games is an interesting proposition but he's not getting any younger and I doubt he'll still be a regular catcher that far from now.- 30 points for 2100 games at 2B or SS, or 15 for 1,800 games. 15 points for 2,000 games at 3B. - An additional 15 points in the player has more than 2,500 games played at 2B, SS, or 3B. Not applicable.- Award 15 points if the player's batting average is over .275 and they have 1,500 or more games as a 2B, SS or C. Currently a long way away from 1500 games at C and average is under .275.As I see it, Posada will get 15 more points next year for games played. He should also be in 3 more all star games and maybe get 6-12 more points for catching for the Yankees if they do well. Add it all up and he may see 110 career points.

Well see, he's holding up better than Fisk ever did and I-Rod/Piazza are now. I wouldn't be shocked to see him still catching at 40-1 if he wants to which would get him to 1800 games.