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Is Knowshon overvalued and Hillman undervalued right now? (1 Viewer)

gradin123

Footballguy
Knowshon Moreno has looked good so far this season but that hasn't necessarily translated into increased touches. In fact, over the past two weeks Hillman has been just as productive and seen almost as many touches as Moreno. It definitely seems Ball has fallen down to #3 on the pecking order and is only brought in at the very end of games when the Broncos are way ahead. Beyond that it does appear to be a committee between Moreno and Hillman right now and even though Moreno is getting ranked way higher on all rankings boards he is only getting a slight edge in touches and snaps

Against Philadelphia last week both Moreno and Hillman played 31 snaps. The previous week against Oakland Moreno had 37 compared to Hillmans 25 snaps.

Over the course of the two weeks,

Moreno has 24 carries for 117 yds 4.88 per and 2 catches for 19 yards 1 TD

Hillman has 20 carries for 102 yds 5.10 per and 3 catches for 33 yards 1 TD

So over the course of the last two weeks Moreno has 3 more touches, the same amount of TD's (rock,paper,scissors anyone?) and 1 more total yard than Hillman.

It seems to me this has become a fullblown committee between the two yet the rankings don't reflect that.

I know some will argue that Knowshon plays more when the game is on the line but the Broncos are so good right now it looks like they will routinely blow teams out all season. They are already 29 point favorites against the Jaguars in week 6.

 
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SameSongNDance

Footballguy
Snap Percentage

Knowshon Moreno - 52% - 59% - 46% - 38%

Ronnie Hillman - 21% - 3% - 32% - 41%

Montee Ball - 25% - 38% - 22% - 19%

Utilization

Knowshon Moreno - 12 - 16 - 14 - 13 = 55 total (46 rushing attempts, 9 targets)

Ronnie Hillman - 6 - 1 - 10 - 14 = 31 total (25 rushing attempts, 6 targets)

Montee Ball - 8 - 14 - 11 - 8 = 41 total (39 rushing attempts, 2 targets)

Sure looks like Hillman is trending upwards to me as well.

 

OG_GF

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
Not sure who you're responding to, but I'm not just looking at stats. When you watch them run, it's obvious that Hillman is the more explosive runner and it's not surprising that he'd be able to do a bit more than Moreno with less touches.

Who knows who will be able to keep up with DEN this year so what you define as garbage time may just be the norm. Regardless, your definition of "just getting some reps" is all wrong.

 

OG_GF

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
Not sure who you're responding to, but I'm not just looking at stats. When you watch them run, it's obvious that Hillman is the more explosive runner and it's not surprising that he'd be able to do a bit more than Moreno with less touches.

Who knows who will be able to keep up with DEN this year so what you define as garbage time may just be the norm. Regardless, your definition of "just getting some reps" is all wrong.
I don't disagree. Hillman is the more dynamic, explosive back. Haven't you ever seen "Pirates of Silicon Valley"?

Steve Jobs says to Bill Gates: We're better. We've got better stuff.

and Bill Gates turns to him and says:

"THAT DOESN'T MATTER!"

Hillman is not better at pass protection. He is not a better receiver out of the backfield. He does not have the ENTIRE skill set that Moreno has ... so even if he is a faster, shiftier back ... he doesn't have the same skill set that Moreno has, that right now ... fits that offense better.

 

bleachercreacher

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
Not sure who you're responding to, but I'm not just looking at stats. When you watch them run, it's obvious that Hillman is the more explosive runner and it's not surprising that he'd be able to do a bit more than Moreno with less touches.

Who knows who will be able to keep up with DEN this year so what you define as garbage time may just be the norm. Regardless, your definition of "just getting some reps" is all wrong.
The problem is that what each player looks like as a runner plays little into this equation. The two most important things a back in this offense has to do is keep Manning on his feet and hold onto the ball. Neither Hillman or Ball seem able to do either of these two things.

 

OG_GF

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
Not sure who you're responding to, but I'm not just looking at stats. When you watch them run, it's obvious that Hillman is the more explosive runner and it's not surprising that he'd be able to do a bit more than Moreno with less touches.

Who knows who will be able to keep up with DEN this year so what you define as garbage time may just be the norm. Regardless, your definition of "just getting some reps" is all wrong.
The problem is that what each player looks like as a runner plays little into this equation. The two most important things a back in this offense has to do is keep Manning on his feet and hold onto the ball. Neither Hillman or Ball seem able to do either of these two things.
Exactly. Skill set.

 

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
You see, I agree with you guys. Ever since the Clady injury I was almost certain neither Hillman nor Ball would sniff the field due to them being the inferior pass protectors yet that's clearly not the case.

Fact is Hillman saw more snaps/was utilized more last week despite being the inferior pass protector/less polished RB and it makes this situation all the more unpredictable. Moreno may be the "starter" but that doesn't mean jack when we're talking about a legitimate timeshare (it is the epitome of a timeshare). You'll have weeks where he does something with his 13ish touches (NYG, PHI) and others where he's barely flex worthy (BAL, OAK). Luckily, I don't have a dog in this race but it's fun to watch play out.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
Not sure who you're responding to, but I'm not just looking at stats. When you watch them run, it's obvious that Hillman is the more explosive runner and it's not surprising that he'd be able to do a bit more than Moreno with less touches.

Who knows who will be able to keep up with DEN this year so what you define as garbage time may just be the norm. Regardless, your definition of "just getting some reps" is all wrong.
I don't disagree. Hillman is the more dynamic, explosive back. Haven't you ever seen "Pirates of Silicon Valley"?

Steve Jobs says to Bill Gates: We're better. We've got better stuff.

and Bill Gates turns to him and says:

"THAT DOESN'T MATTER!"

Hillman is not better at pass protection. He is not a better receiver out of the backfield. He does not have the ENTIRE skill set that Moreno has ... so even if he is a faster, shiftier back ... he doesn't have the same skill set that Moreno has, that right now ... fits that offense better.
:lol:

 

OG_GF

Footballguy
Pirates scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBri-xgYvHQ

ETA: Apple actually purchased the initial GUI from PARC Xerox ... Microsoft did pretty much steal it ... but had enough money by then to hire lawyers and fight it. Still made a fortune ... with a shell over DOS. Hence: "That doesn't matter,"

Hillman is younger, faster ... he has all the intangibles to be a great back in the NFL ... but that doesn't matter ... right now Moreno is the guy who is best at pass protection ... he's a veteran ... he understands audibles ... doesn't matter if Hillman is faster.

The New York Giants ... another Manning led team, just cut the fastest RB on the roster and signed a slow, old man.

Pass protection.

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
Pirates scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBri-xgYvHQ

ETA: Apple actually purchased the initial GUI from PARC Xerox ... Microsoft did pretty much steal it ... but had enough money by then to hire lawyers and fight it. Still made a fortune ... with a shell over DOS. Hence: "That doesn't matter,"

Hillman is younger, faster ... he has all the intangibles to be a great back in the NFL ... but that doesn't matter ... right now Moreno is the guy who is best at pass protection ... he's a veteran ... he understands audibles ... doesn't matter if Hillman is faster.

The New York Giants ... another Manning led team, just cut the fastest RB on the roster and signed a slow, old man.

Pass protection.
I actually kinda got what you were saying, I was just giving kudos for a kind of out-of-left-field yet appropriate reference.

 

OG_GF

Footballguy
Pirates scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBri-xgYvHQ

ETA: Apple actually purchased the initial GUI from PARC Xerox ... Microsoft did pretty much steal it ... but had enough money by then to hire lawyers and fight it. Still made a fortune ... with a shell over DOS. Hence: "That doesn't matter,"

Hillman is younger, faster ... he has all the intangibles to be a great back in the NFL ... but that doesn't matter ... right now Moreno is the guy who is best at pass protection ... he's a veteran ... he understands audibles ... doesn't matter if Hillman is faster.

The New York Giants ... another Manning led team, just cut the fastest RB on the roster and signed a slow, old man.

Pass protection.
I actually kinda got what you were saying, I was just giving kudos for a kind of out-of-left-field yet appropriate reference.
Understood. The details are for everyone else's benefit.

 

gradin123

Footballguy
You see, I agree with you guys. Ever since the Clady injury I was almost certain neither Hillman nor Ball would sniff the field due to them being the inferior pass protectors yet that's clearly not the case.

Fact is Hillman saw more snaps/was utilized more last week despite being the inferior pass protector/less polished RB and it makes this situation all the more unpredictable. Moreno may be the "starter" but that doesn't mean jack when we're talking about a legitimate timeshare (it is the epitome of a timeshare). You'll have weeks where he does something with his 13ish touches (NYG, PHI) and others where he's barely flex worthy (BAL, OAK). Luckily, I don't have a dog in this race but it's fun to watch play out.
I am seeing the same things as you but it seems to be being ignored by most people right now. I always look at touches and snaps because longterm those are important stats. Moreno had a good week last week after struggling the week before but he had about the same amount of touches each week. Hillman only got 2 carries last week after the starters were pulled (Manning,Welker,Decker,thomas etc.) so despite what people are saying it wasn't all garbage time but Ball only got his carries after all the starters were pulled.

I know the Broncos were concerned about Hillman's pass protection last year but from all accounts I have read he has made a marked improvement in that category. If anyone has access to pro football focus' pass protection grades I would be interested to see how Hillman has fared in comparsion to Moreno this year. Last week the Broncos didn't seem to hesitate to use Hillman in pure pass situations. Right now I don't think there is a doubt that the Broncos trust Hillman more than Ball both in terms of ball security and pass protection and if Moreno were to go down right now Hillman would get the majority of the work.

This weeks game looks to be somewhat competitive on paper which would seem to favor Moreno's chances for more playing time but who leads the team in carries next week against Jacksonville? It could be Ball because the game could be out of reach by halftime.

 
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OG_GF

Footballguy
The Broncos look so lights out, that even garbage time, for fantasy purposes can't be discounted.

Again, I don't know if you saw the game last week, but it was pretty clear who the starting RB was ... and that they were resting Moreno once the game was out of hand. That's partly why Hillman got as many snaps as he did, even in "passing situations" late in the game, they were using tight formations that were max protect for the QB. Running the clock.

If you want to argue that Hillman had a lot of carries last week ... you could also say that Moreno was "benched" ... but it would not be particularly relevant to who the starting RB is going forwards. It's still Moreno.

 

unckeyherb

Footballguy
In redraft its becoming obvious that ball is not worth hanging onto. It doesn't seem like he has much chance at getting any meaningful carries. I was holding on the off chance that Moreno got hurt but its starting to look like even if that happens, Hillman would get the nod any ways...

 

duaneok66

Footballguy
Another thread with the same premise . . . Denver has had so much "garbage time" this season that you can't just look at snaps - you have to take them into the context of the situation. The Philadelphia game got out of hand early in the 2nd half. Any snaps after that point can basically be disregarded.

 

Rushmore

Footballguy
I think it's pretty obvious who the true starter is right now (Moreno), but agree with some that Hillman seems a little undervalued by many. I think it was Hillman's job to lose in preseason after looking fantastic in camp and earning the job. He then fumbled the job away in the preseason games, giving the Broncos no choice but to look elsewhere. He has since then held onto the ball and made the most out of his limited opportunities, earning some of that trust back. His pass blocking is one of the major improvements he made from his rookie season, which is why he initially got the consideration. I think Moreno has looked good and don't expect him to be handing over the reigns anytime soon, but I think Moreno owners should try to find room for Hillman on their bench while his perceived value is still low.

 

rascal

Footballguy
It's just a matter of time before Moreno gets injured, so Hillman is a decent stash. The guy simply can't stay healthy.

 

Bob Barker

Footballguy
Denver just trusts Moreno more and he doesnt really make any mistakes and can keep Manning protected. Hillman may be the more dynamic runner but Denver seems to prefer a guy that gets the job done without the mistakes and would rather use Hillman as the change of pace back. Just like last year, everyone thought that Hillman would be the man once Mcgahee went down and Moreno was inactive most weeks, but the went with the veteran they knew they could trust to get the job done.

 

need2know

Footballguy
It's just a matter of time before Moreno gets injured, so Hillman is a decent stash. The guy simply can't stay healthy.
I agree. If he's on the ww, hes worth the stash. When moreno goes down hillman becomes a strong rb2. Because they blow teams out most of the time, he could currently be used as a desperation spot starter and give decent numbers

 
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JackReacher

Footballguy
Interesting point the OP makes is that with the Broncos blowing people out every week, it makes less of a difference who the lead RB is. Hillman is getting plenty of work because of the blowouts and there is no reason to believe this situation will change anytime soon.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
If its who would I rather have of course that is Moreno but I only have Hillman and Im holding onto him. I actually dropped him after week 2 and then picked him back up the next week. He's going to continue getting a decent amount of touches and if Moreno gets hurt, Hillman will be :moneybag:

 

ryno1980

Footballguy
duaneok66 said:
Another thread with the same premise . . . Denver has had so much "garbage time" this season that you can't just look at snaps - you have to take them into the context of the situation. The Philadelphia game got out of hand early in the 2nd half. Any snaps after that point can basically be disregarded.
The broncos aren't going to continue to have a lot of garbage time?

 

zoonation

Footballguy
OG_GF said:
Seriously. You are looking at stats and not reality.

Hillman and Ball have only really been in there when the game was out of hand. Osweiler was in for a snap last week, you gonna argue he is competing for time with Manning?

Moreno is the starter. End of story. Hillman and Ball are just gettin some reps.
This is incorrect. Hillman was getting reps throughout the last game. Not just in garbage time.

 

Buffaloes

Footballguy
unckeyherb said:
In redraft its becoming obvious that ball is not worth hanging onto. It doesn't seem like he has much chance at getting any meaningful carries.
2 weeks ago posters were saying the same thing about Hillman with staff member agreeing that Hillman was worth dropping in 10-teamers.

pretty sure it's a 3-headed RBBC with the best pass blocker leading the charge

 

zoonation

Footballguy
unckeyherb said:
In redraft its becoming obvious that ball is not worth hanging onto. It doesn't seem like he has much chance at getting any meaningful carries.
2 weeks ago posters were saying the same thing about Hillman with staff member agreeing that Hillman was worth dropping in 10-teamers.pretty sure it's a 3-headed RBBC with the best pass blocker leading the charge
Ball isn't a factor at all anymore. No snaps until Manning was out of the game. It is Moreno with Hillman spelling him.

 

Buffaloes

Footballguy
unckeyherb said:
In redraft its becoming obvious that ball is not worth hanging onto. It doesn't seem like he has much chance at getting any meaningful carries.
2 weeks ago posters were saying the same thing about Hillman with staff member agreeing that Hillman was worth dropping in 10-teamers.pretty sure it's a 3-headed RBBC with the best pass blocker leading the charge
Ball isn't a factor at all anymore. No snaps until Manning was out of the game. It is Moreno with Hillman spelling him.
Posters were saying the same thing about Hillman a few weeks ago when he logged 2 total snaps after fumbling the week before.

Theme: guy fumbles, guy gets benched the next game.

We'll see if Ball gets worked back into the mix like Hillman did.

 

ryno1980

Footballguy
duaneok66 said:
Another thread with the same premise . . . Denver has had so much "garbage time" this season that you can't just look at snaps - you have to take them into the context of the situation. The Philadelphia game got out of hand early in the 2nd half. Any snaps after that point can basically be disregarded.
Disregarded? The broncos are going to blow everyone out.

 

Statorama

gangster
one thing I got out of this thread was what a bunch of colossal dirtbags all of the the main computer guys were. except for wozniack, that guy was a sweet heart

 

greggorymac

Footballguy
SameSongNDance said:
Snap Percentage

Knowshon Moreno - 52% - 59% - 46% - 38%

Ronnie Hillman - 21% - 3% - 32% - 41%

Montee Ball - 25% - 38% - 22% - 19%

Utilization

Knowshon Moreno - 12 - 16 - 14 - 13 = 55 total (46 rushing attempts, 9 targets)

Ronnie Hillman - 6 - 1 - 10 - 14 = 31 total (25 rushing attempts, 6 targets)

Montee Ball - 8 - 14 - 11 - 8 = 41 total (39 rushing attempts, 2 targets)

Sure looks like Hillman is trending upwards to me as well.
Thanks for the breakdown SameSong :thumbup:

 

Area51Inhabitant

Footballguy
one thing I got out of this thread was what a bunch of colossal dirtbags all of the the main computer guys were. except for wozniack, that guy was a sweet heart
I enjoyed the movie immensely but who really knows if Gates and Jobs are/were really the dirtbags they were portrayed in the movie.

 

Thursday

Footballguy
Samesong... love the breakdown with snap counts and utilization, but I would like to see if we could get it by quarter....

Here's some interesting looks as well. Basically the number you are seeing by quarter is the # of rush attempts + # of targets by quarter by player.

Thru 4 weeks:

Qrtr 1 Qrtr 2 Qrtr 3 Qrtr 4 OVERALL Knowshon Moreno 17 18 15 5 55Ronnie Hillman 2 9 15 5 31Montee Ball 6 1 7 26 40Which shows that Moreno is basically 1st and 2nd quarter, Hillman is the relief back in 2nd and 3rd quarter, and Ball is garbage man in the 4th quarter.... Now what if we only look at the last two weeks...

Qrtr 1 Qrtr 2 Qrtr 3 Qrtr 4 OVERALL Knowshon Moreno 8 11 8 0 27Ronnie Hillman 0 9 10 5 24Montee Ball 1 0 2 15 18Basically the same trends as before, but it looks like Moreno is losing touches to Hillman in the 2nd quarter. Moreno sets the tone in the 1st quarter and then they use Hillman to speed up the game in 2nd and 3rd, and Ball to slow it down and take time off the clock.

 
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gradin123

Footballguy
Samesong... love the breakdown with snap counts and utilization, but I would like to see if we could get it by quarter....

Here's some interesting looks as well. Basically the number you are seeing by quarter is the # of rush attempts + # of targets by quarter by player.

Thru 4 weeks:

Qrtr 1 Qrtr 2 Qrtr 3 Qrtr 4 OVERALL Knowshon Moreno 17 18 15 5 55Ronnie Hillman 2 9 15 5 31Montee Ball 6 1 7 26 40Which shows that Moreno is basically 1st and 2nd quarter, Hillman is the relief back in 2nd and 3rd quarter, and Ball is garbage man in the 4th quarter.... Now what if we only look at the last two weeks...

Qrtr 1 Qrtr 2 Qrtr 3 Qrtr 4 OVERALL Knowshon Moreno 8 11 8 0 27Ronnie Hillman 0 9 10 5 24Montee Ball 1 0 2 15 18Basically the same trends as before, but it looks like Moreno is losing touches to Hillman in the 2nd quarter. Moreno sets the tone in the 1st quarter and then they use Hillman to speed up the game in 2nd and 3rd, and Ball to slow it down and take time off the clock.
Good analysis and it debunks the theory Hillman is seeing the majority of his play in garbage time. Moreno is clearly the starter but Hillman is getting a lot of work when the game is still on the line and the rest of the starters are still playing. Ball is the garbage time player.

 

Mistabishi

Footballguy
I'm selling on Moreno. His boom and bust production is a dime a dozen this season and if someone wants to give me a player that I need at another position then I will accept the trade gladly.

 

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