Is LT still a 1st round pick in 2009? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

We all know that LT has not had an LT year at all.

--Only TWO 100 yd rushing games. Those 2 games were for 105 yds and for 106 yds.

--Only TWO games with 2 TDs.

--Had EIGHT games with 0 TDs

--3.6 YPC

--May not even have 1100 rushing yds

--Will have over 2650 career carries going into next year. This is good for 15th all-time

--Loss of Lorenzo Neal seems to have had a significant impact

--He had a poor year despite getting to face Denver (27th vs the run) twice, KC (30th vs the run) twice, and Oakland (31st vs. the run) twice

--Will be 30 years old next year

So, I've painted a terrible picture of LT. Yet, despite all of this, he was still the #10 ranked RB in my 1 ppr league and #12 ranked RB in non-ppr.

Does he remain a 1st round pick? Top half of the 1st round? Bottom half? Does he fall into the 2nd? Could he pull a Curtis Martin and be the #1 RB again?

 

[thayman]

We all know that LT has not had an LT year at all.--Only TWO 100 yd rushing games. Those 2 games were for 105 yds and for 106 yds.--Only TWO games with 2 TDs. --Had EIGHT games with 0 TDs--3.6 YPC--May not even have 1100 rushing yds--Will have over 2650 career carries going into next year. This is good for 15th all-time--Loss of Lorenzo Neal seems to have had a significant impact--He had a poor year despite getting to face Denver (27th vs the run) twice, KC (30th vs the run) twice, and Oakland (31st vs. the run) twice--Will be 30 years old next yearSo, I've painted a terrible picture of LT. Yet, despite all of this, he was still the #10 ranked RB in my 1 ppr league and #12 ranked RB in non-ppr. Does he remain a 1st round pick? Top half of the 1st round? Bottom half? Does he fall into the 2nd? Could he pull a Curtis Martin and be the #1 RB again?

I think he will be drafted all over the place next year. He could be fantastic value in leagues he drops.

 

[bentley]

We all know that LT has not had an LT year at all.--Only TWO 100 yd rushing games. Those 2 games were for 105 yds and for 106 yds.--Only TWO games with 2 TDs. --Had EIGHT games with 0 TDs--3.6 YPC--May not even have 1100 rushing yds--Will have over 2650 career carries going into next year. This is good for 15th all-time--Loss of Lorenzo Neal seems to have had a significant impact--He had a poor year despite getting to face Denver (27th vs the run) twice, KC (30th vs the run) twice, and Oakland (31st vs. the run) twice--Will be 30 years old next yearSo, I've painted a terrible picture of LT. Yet, despite all of this, he was still the #10 ranked RB in my 1 ppr league and #12 ranked RB in non-ppr. Does he remain a 1st round pick? Top half of the 1st round? Bottom half? Does he fall into the 2nd? Could he pull a Curtis Martin and be the #1 RB again?

I think he will be drafted all over the place next year. He could be fantastic value in leagues he drops.

I agree. He could be a great value in some leagues. I think Emmitt Smith carried similar value for his last few years in Dallas. He wasn't #1 any more, but he finished each year in the top ten ahead of many of the other guys that were sexier picks. Looks like LT is going to finish as RB8 in our scoring system ahead of Gore, Barber and Portis.

 

[brutha]

Will be overpriced anyway and wouldn't touch him w/a 10' pole.

 

[thayman]

Will be overpriced anyway and wouldn't touch him w/a 10' pole.

You wouldn' take Tomlinson as a RB2??

 

[MAC_32]

How is LT's 2009 going to in any way be like Shaun Alexander's cliff dive? Alexander was coming off a career year and subsequently tanked. LT's career year was 2006. He's been somewhere between good and great since.

 

[puckalicious]

All I know is that tonight LT appears healthy and is tearing up Denver. I realize it's just Denver, but this season has been a "down" season due to his toe injury, not from "losing a step". A guy has a down season and still finishes top-10? I'll gladly take him in the top of the first round ahead of guys like Westbrook, MJD, SJax, etc.

As mentioned, LT will represent obscene value in the leagues where he falls to the bottom of the first round. Everybody will be going for the "sexy" picks like Turner, MJD, ADP, DWill, etc but a healthy LT has just as much (or greater) chance to finish #1. I don't think LT will lose a step barring injury next season.

 

[Jimmy James]

If he's on the downward slide, it's more an Eddie George thing than an Alexander one.

I'm thinking he'll be there and will represent value around the turn in a 12 man league. I see him going in the 10-15 range overall.

 

[Synthesizer]

LT looks like he'll have gradual decline similar to Emmitt's. 1500 yards and 12 TDs and a final ranking of RB #8 using standard scoring. I don't think he's done enough to justify a mid-1st round pick next year but I'd take him late in the 1st.

 

[massraider]

No, because I think the 18 TD days are gone. There are WRs that are safer bets in the first, and I think LT's 2009 production can be gotten from a RB in the 3rd round.

 

[Bobcat10]

No, because I think the 18 TD days are gone. There are WRs that are safer bets in the first, and I think LT's 2009 production can be gotten from a RB in the 3rd round.

Well, yeah, if you pick the right guy.I think his draft position is going to climb over the summer back into the top 8 by the Labor Day drafts.

 

[Synthesizer]

No, because I think the 18 TD days are gone. There are WRs that are safer bets in the first, and I think LT's 2009 production can be gotten from a RB in the 3rd round.

Here's FBGs preseason 3rd round RBs heading into this year: Jacobs, R.Grant, J.Lewis, Turner, Bush, McGahee, E.Graham, W.Parker, Maroney, E.James. 2 of those guys were great value and 6 of those guys were complete busts. Good luck picking the right guy.

 

[tommyGunZ]

No, because I think the 18 TD days are gone. There are WRs that are safer bets in the first, and I think LT's 2009 production can be gotten from a RB in the 3rd round.

Well, yeah, if you pick the right guy.I think his draft position is going to climb over the summer back into the top 8 by the Labor Day drafts.

Yep. Even in an awful year, in which he was hurt and his OL was oft injured and extremely inconsistent, LT finished top 5-7. He's the surest thing there is, and assuming health he'll be back to 15-20 TDs again next year.

 

[Mikey16x]

I think LT/Sproles is going to be a time share from here on out. He will have value, but nothing like he has had in the past. Sproles has earned his carries looking more explosive with every one. He's just as versatile with good hands out of the backfield and probably has more speed/agility then LT does right now. I say next season is a 60/40 split in carries... Thomas Jones/Leon Washington scenario.

 

[videoguy505]

I'd say late first because I can't think of 12 safer bets to put in front of him.

 

[Chachi]

Two numbers to be aware of: 30 and 3.8

LT is nowhere near a roster of mine next season, I feel sorry for dynasty owners who think he's going to put up RB1 numbers next year.

 

[JPeso]

This past offseason was the time to move LT in dynasty. If you haven't already, you are unlikely to even net guys like K. Smith this offseasn (3rd-4th round value). With that said, comparing to Shaun Alexander is not the answer. Tomlinson will not have the steep decline that we saw from S. Alexander or R. Johnson, he is just too talented. I expect him to be able to post fringe 1,000 yard seasons for 2-3 more years. If you haven't sold yet, you are most likely better off keeping him on board.