Is Michael Clayton Severly Undervalued this year? (1 Viewer)

[DaTruth]

I've been seeing mock drafts where he's been going in the 9th or latter rounds. I think he's going to have a big year. Teams will focus on Galloway and i think Simms is going to have a coming out party of his own. Clayton seems to be a goldmine in the latter part of the draft. He did have over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie year. The injury bug bit him last year and all reports are saying that he's 100% now. I'm expecting a big year from him.

DaTruth

 

[Funkley]

I agree. Big rebound for him this year.

 

[pgreenfan]

I think he presents great value this year.. I missed out on him by 1 pick in my main draft yesterday. It was almost enough to make baby jesus cry.

 

[pantagrapher]

He went 8.08 in my draft. I'm pretty high on him and think the guy that got him got great value there. I picked Simms late, so I'm hoping the TB air attack is strong this year. I'm optimistic.

 

[mr. furley]

also targeting him as my WR2 (only taking 2 receivers.. he's gonna have to turn it out for me)

 

[Otis]

Monster value.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I have him in a Dynasty and in a redraft as my #3 WR because he dropped so far. I think he'll have his moments for sure but I'm not overly optimistic based on everything I've read. I think he makes a good #3 and spot starter with an upside pointing to #2. I'm hoping for the best here.

 

[TLEF316]

i took him pretty late and then traded him in a package for steve smith. I like him to be top 25 this year, maybe top 15 if galloway goes down

 

[Chaos Commish]

Rather than look at static ADP figures this year, I took a more dynamic approach. I created a large sample of "good" drafts and did some analysis, comparison and contrast, etc. I was seeking patterns to different drafts to see if there were unexptected clues about how players fell. Galloway/Clayton fell into the "clue" category, but I cannot guarantee this is true of every draft, just an alarming sample. When Joey goes early, there's a decent chance Clayton will fall to risk minimized value around his ADP. But, be very careful if Joey falls a little. Clayton goes much earlier in those drafts. Their ADP ranges have 8% cross over (Clayton going before Joey on occasion). I can only guess that if several are passing on Joey, they have high hopes for Clayton. In my sample, Clayton and Galloway have the widest ADP ranges of any WRs under round 10.

 

[shadow2k]

He went at 7.8 in my 12 teamer. I was hoping he'd fall to 8.12 for me, but lost out. Galloway went at 4.4.

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

i added him in round 12 or 13 yesterday in a 12 team league

 

[Brownsfan]

I got him last week in he 16th round (rd11,keep5) at pick 10 in a ten team league.

I am hoping for big things out of my WR5.

 

[Hugonel]

12 man league/12 rounds. I got him at pick 85 (8th round). He and Coles (along with sleepers Lundy and Morency) are my value picks of the draft. I got Coles at 7:12, pick 84.

Clayton is technically my #4 but could easily end up as #1-3 (Driver and S. Moss are 1 and 2).

 

[J-Co]

I half expect his numbers at year end to be better than Galloway's. Actually probably more than half expect.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Only if Galloway gets hurt. As long as things are going well, the Bucs are going give the other team a big dose of Caddy. Simms will not throw more than 30 passes when the Bucs are ahead for most of the game. When you add in that Alex Smith should get more targets, and that Galloway and Simms were clearly on the same page last year, it's hard to see Clayton putting up better than WR3 numbers.

 

[massraider]

Rather than look at static ADP figures this year, I took a more dynamic approach. I created a large sample of "good" drafts and did some analysis, comparison and contrast, etc. I was seeking patterns to different drafts to see if there were unexptected clues about how players fell. Galloway/Clayton fell into the "clue" category, but I cannot guarantee this is true of every draft, just an alarming sample. When Joey goes early, there's a decent chance Clayton will fall to risk minimized value around his ADP. But, be very careful if Joey falls a little. Clayton goes much earlier in those drafts. Their ADP ranges have 8% cross over (Clayton going before Joey on occasion). I can only guess that if several are passing on Joey, they have high hopes for Clayton. In my sample, Clayton and Galloway have the widest ADP ranges of any WRs under round 10.

Eh, where were you two weeks ago? Good stuff, CC, thanks. I'm not sure if Clayton is undervalued, but when I look at the WR's he being drafted with, I prefer his chances to rise to the next level. There is also a chance he plays second fiddle to Galloway for another year. I think Simms is a bit of a wild card, as well as Gruden. Will Gruden just run Caddy till he collapses?

 

[joffer]

Only if Galloway gets hurt. As long as things are going well, the Bucs are going give the other team a big dose of Caddy. Simms will not throw more than 30 passes when the Bucs are ahead for most of the game. When you add in that Alex Smith should get more targets, and that Galloway and Simms were clearly on the same page last year, it's hard to see Clayton putting up better than WR3 numbers.

nothing like a nice dose of reality

 

[jchapman70]

In our 10 team league I felt I got both Ben Watson and Micheal Clayton at tremendous values.

1. (9) S. Jackson RB

2. (12) C. Williams RB

3. (29) A. Boldin WR

4. (32) K. Jones RB

5. (49) R. Wayne WR

6. (52) M. Bulger QB

7. (69) D. McAllister RB

8. (72) P. Burress WR

9. (89) D. Mason WR

10. (92) T. Heap TE

11. (109) B. Watson TE

12. (112) M. Barber RB

13. (129) A. Brooks QB

14. (132) Mi. Clayton WR

15. (149) T. Williamson WR

16. (152) E. Wilford WR

17. (169) A. Schobel DL

18. (172) K. Dansby DL

19. (189) J. Abraham DL

20. (192) A. Davis DL

21. (209) T. Suggs DL

22. (212) C. Tillman DB

23. (229) G. Wilson DB

24. (232) Miami DEF

25. (249) J. Kasay K

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

I'm not a Bucs fan, so I'm not an every snap watcher, especially dating back to his rookie year. But compared to last year, and the limited sample I saw of him on Saturday night, he looked like he was physically where he needed to be and he ran fearless and free. I"m quite high on him as well, I picked him in the 11th round of a 10 teamer and I can see him starting for me by midseason.

 

[Alberta Clipper]

I think he's great value this year as long as his TURF-TOE-ITIS does not flare up.

Got him 9.06 last night in a 12 team keeper league (round drafted -2 rds).

He was WR#40 drafted and/or kept.

 

[J-Co]

Only if Galloway gets hurt. As long as things are going well, the Bucs are going give the other team a big dose of Caddy. Simms will not throw more than 30 passes when the Bucs are ahead for most of the game. When you add in that Alex Smith should get more targets, and that Galloway and Simms were clearly on the same page last year, it's hard to see Clayton putting up better than WR3 numbers.

The flip side of that argument (and one shared by several of the staff guys here according to Clayton's player page) is that teams will start to double team Galloway more or at least put their best cover guy on him. Clayton, supposedly healthy after playing hurt most of last year, may be as good or better that Galloway and could stand to benefit. I'm not going out on a limb and saying it will happen but I definitely won't be surprised if it does. Therefore, I'd much rather draft Clayton this year than Galloway because I can get him several round later (got him in the 10th or 11th this past weekend in one draft, just missed him in the other). My mid-late round strategy this year was to take my QB and a couple upside RBs (e.g. L. Maroney, D. Williams, T. Bell, M. Barber) in rounds 7-9 while the other guys were taking mid level WRs with little upside. Then when the WR pool started to get thin I went after whoever was left among guys like R. Brown, M. Clayton, T. Williamson, A. Bryant, D. Stallworth, D. Bennett and N. Burleson.

 

[DaTruth]

I see that for teh most part people are thinking the same as me. I just don't see Galloway repeating the same numbers as last year and Clayton will be hitting that magical 3rd year for a WR. Given also the fact that Caddy is the #1 option for Def to be honing in on, Clayton should really have a bounceback year.

DaTruth

 

[azgroover]

I grabbed Clayton, but am second guessing myself knowing that Bryant Johnson went undrafted and could be even better because he doesn't have Chris Simms throwing him the ball.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Did David Boston make the team? If so, I could see Boston cutting into Clayton's numbers a bit.

 

[DaTruth]

Here's something i found in Pasta-Belly's article when he went to the Bucs training camp.

Watch out for Clayton, too, who has come to camp with a chip on his shoulder and with a lot to prove after a disastrous drop-off in 2005. As a first-rounder in 2004, Clayton caught 80 passes for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, the former LSU star had just 32 receptions for 372 yards and failed to score. "I got lax," Clayton candidly admitted. "It came too easy and I didn't have the same work habits between my first and second seasons as I did when I was a rookie."

What Clayton won't tell you, unless pressed, is that he had knee and shoulder injuries that subsequently required offseason surgery. Having been through a long but productive rehabilitation, Clayton seems determined to reestablish himself as one of the game's best young receivers, and the early camp results have been positive.

DaTruth

 

[ImTheScientist]

They were both on the field for a series or two this weekend, I watched the game. Clayton looked good making on catch across the middle, but Galloway looked really explosive/fast. I own them both in my league, however I expect Galloway to be top 10 again if he stays healthy. He looked like the fastest guy on the field even at his age.

 

[FF Dude]

Once you get past the top 12-15 WRs there is a LOT of guessing. My goal is to try to snag 1 top 10 WR and then 3 or 4 guys who may gain or regain a prominent role. I especially look for teams that are weak defensively and will be throwing a lot as well as teams with new QBs that may be looking at a different WR than the team focused on in the past.

Guys I'm targeting for this year:

MClayton TB

L Coles NYJ

D Mason Bal

D Stallworth NO

D Bennett Tenn

Probably 1 or 2 of these guys will clear the top 15 this year...of course the others will bust.

 

[mightyeskimo]

I think he's certainly undervalued this year. He's my WR #5 so I think he has tremendous value in that position.

 

[zamboni]

My guess is that his numbers will show a marked rise from last year (how could they not?), although somewhat short of his rookie year.

Beyond the obvious presences of Caddy and Galloway, Clayton got his numbers when Griese at the helm, and locked into him. That, and there was no other bona fide WR option and a lack of a true feature back. The other aspect is that Clayton is a ferocious blocker and contributes in many ways in non-fantasy terms. In other words, he may be a much better NFL player than a fantasy player when all is said and done.

 

[mizeners]

Can anyone let me know (who watched the game) how Clayton looked? I know it was a bad game for TB but I'm sure they switched to a passing game pretty quickly. How did he look? Was he targeted much?

Someone just dropped him in my league and after him using up one of my roster spots for weeks without any decent games, I'm afraid to take a chance again.

 

[bucs4life_99]

Can anyone let me know (who watched the game) how Clayton looked? I know it was a bad game for TB but I'm sure they switched to a passing game pretty quickly. How did he look? Was he targeted much? Someone just dropped him in my league and after him using up one of my roster spots for weeks without any decent games, I'm afraid to take a chance again.

Well he was certainly targeted more often than Galloway. I'm guessing he saw about 7-8 targets, one of which was a nice grab over the middle that was basically the Bucs only downfield pass that didn't result in an INT. He looked decent, but moving forward I feel like Gruden knows he has to get the ball in Galloway's hands more for the Bucs to have any semblence of offensive firepower. Still, I think Clayton will get his share of catches, and should be good enough to be an adequate WR3