Is RMoss Worth the Risk? (1 Viewer)

[greenheads]

In my keeper league RMoss will probably go mid-late 2nd rd as the last of the top tier WR's. This seems to be his ADP range.

Is he worth taking at that spot? Considering his past 2 years stats, new QB (brooks ugh) and his injuries over that time.

 

[radballs]

How many keepers does your league have? After the keepers are held if Moss goes in the second you're actuallly getting him much later than you would be in a redraft league. Maybe I don't understand your question. Is this the first year of the keeper league?

 

[Chase Stuart]

In my keeper league RMoss will probably go mid-late 2nd rd as the last of the top tier WR's. This seems to be his ADP range.

Is he worth taking at that spot? Considering his past 2 years stats, new QB (brooks ugh) and his injuries over that time.

Why the ugh for Brooks, greenheads?Joe Horn was phenomenal when playing with Brooks.

 

[Ozymandias]

In my keeper league RMoss will probably go mid-late 2nd rd as the last of the top tier WR's. This seems to be his ADP range. 

Is he worth taking at that spot? Considering his past 2 years stats, new QB (brooks ugh) and his injuries over that time.

Why the ugh for Brooks, greenheads?Joe Horn was phenomenal when playing with Brooks.

Agreed. Besides, if your QB is going to be running around (because he's mobile) looking for an open receiver, who would you like to have going after the jump ball?That's right, Randy Moss.

 

[The Jerk]

Risk level always becomes more acceptable the later a player is drafted. For any player -- not just Randy Moss -- you should determine the earliest you are willing to draft him, and simply stick with your plan (including trading into that spot if necessary). The way I see it is if someone else takes him earlier, I have no complaints given the risk factor. However, if I draft him earlier than I should, then I'm taking too great of a risk. Finally, if he falls to me, then I'm in proper balance.

 

[greenheads]

Risk level always becomes more acceptable the later a player is drafted. For any player -- not just Randy Moss -- you should determine the earliest you are willing to draft him, and simply stick with your plan (including trading into that spot if necessary). The way I see it is if someone else takes him earlier, I have no complaints given the risk factor. However, if I draft him earlier than I should, then I'm taking too great of a risk. Finally, if he falls to me, then I'm in proper balance.

Sure thats clear. But where would you say that rmoss's risk becomes value in a redraft. His ave. ADP is around 21st pick in a 12 team redraft or the 5 or 6th wr taken. With his negatives its seems his price is too high. The question is whether Moss is value at this adp. Thats all I'm asking.

 

[The Jerk]

Risk level always becomes more acceptable the later a player is drafted. For any player -- not just Randy Moss -- you should determine the earliest you are willing to draft him, and simply stick with your plan (including trading into that spot if necessary). The way I see it is if someone else takes him earlier, I have no complaints given the risk factor. However, if I draft him earlier than I should, then I'm taking too great of a risk. Finally, if he falls to me, then I'm in proper balance.

Sure thats clear. But where would you say that rmoss's risk becomes value in a redraft. His ave. ADP is around 21st pick in a 12 team redraft or the 5 or 6th wr taken. With his negatives its seems his price is too high. The question is whether Moss is value at this adp. Thats all I'm asking.

You have to apply your knowledge of the league to the situation: scoring system, lineups, drafting tendencies (if known), etc. Project the points scored in your league context, then take maybe 80-85% as a benchmark. If he's still top 20 after this reduction, it will tell you that Moss is value at pick 21.I personally don't like the intangibles in Oakland, but I am intrigued at getting a potential top 10-15 talent late in the second round. I would probably look at other lower upside/higher downside picks if possible, because I'm fairly risk averse at the top of the draft. If you're more of the gambling type, you might like it. The good news here is that you probably have an early third round pick in which you could choose to be more conservative. Or you can see if Moss slides that far, although it's clearly doubtful.

 

[Blackjacks]

You have to remember that Moss still finished #14 last year and was hurt for atleast half the season. He started off on fire and then got an unfortunate injury. In Minn. in an injury season he still had like 12 or 13 td's. Basically what I'm saying is even when he's hurt he's still going to put up #'s similiar to good players. I'd just be nice to see him healthy for a whole year and remember how great he can be. If you can get Moss with anything after #15 I think your doing good for yourself.

 

[jziccfbg]

You have to remember that Moss still finished #14 last year and was hurt for atleast half the season. He started off on fire and then got an unfortunate injury. In Minn. in an injury season he still had like 12 or 13 td's. Basically what I'm saying is even when he's hurt he's still going to put up #'s similiar to good players. I'd just be nice to see him healthy for a whole year and remember how great he can be. If you can get Moss with anything after #15 I think your doing good for yourself.

I temper the Moss enthusiasm a little --- but after the 20th pick he is great value

 

[Blackjacks]

You have to remember that Moss still finished #14 last year and was hurt for atleast half the season. He started off on fire and then got an unfortunate injury. In Minn. in an injury season he still had like 12 or 13 td's. Basically what I'm saying is even when he's hurt he's still going to put up #'s similiar to good players. I'd just be nice to see him healthy for a whole year and remember how great he can be. If you can get Moss with anything after #15 I think your doing good for yourself.

I temper the Moss enthusiasm a little --- but after the 20th pick he is great value

If he's a great value @ #20 then he should start to be looked at about #14 or #15, right?

 

[-OZ-]

You have to remember that Moss still finished #14 last year and was hurt for atleast half the season. He started off on fire and then got an unfortunate injury. In Minn. in an injury season he still had like 12 or 13 td's. Basically what I'm saying is even when he's hurt he's still going to put up #'s similiar to good players. I'd just be nice to see him healthy for a whole year and remember how great he can be. If you can get Moss with anything after #15 I think your doing good for yourself.

I temper the Moss enthusiasm a little --- but after the 20th pick he is great value

If he's a great value @ #20 then he should start to be looked at about #14 or #15, right?

Depending on your rules, I would look his way at the start of the 2nd round. He's well worth the risk IMO. Brooks, in FF is better for a WR than Collins, although probably not as good as Culpepper. Moss should be a top 3 this year IMO.

 

[Tau837]

I would probably look at other lower upside/higher downside picks if possible, because I'm fairly risk averse at the top of the draft.

Now there is a different draft strategy.

 

[The Jerk]

I would probably look at other lower upside/higher downside picks if possible, because I'm fairly risk averse at the top of the draft.

Now there is a different draft strategy.

I'm pretty sure you understand my intention here...For example, I'd prefer someone else at 13-15 ppg than Randy Mos at 10-16 ppg.

 

[Tau837]

I would probably look at other lower upside/higher downside picks if possible, because I'm fairly risk averse at the top of the draft.

Now there is a different draft strategy.

I'm pretty sure you understand my intention here...For example, I'd prefer someone else at 13-15 ppg than Randy Mos at 10-16 ppg.

It's just the phrasing. One way to interpret how you wrote it is less upside (worse) and more downside (worse). I probably would have read it the way you intended if you said lower ceiling/higher floor. But I knew what you meant, hence the

 

[The Jerk]

I would probably look at other lower upside/higher downside picks if possible, because I'm fairly risk averse at the top of the draft.

Now there is a different draft strategy.

I'm pretty sure you understand my intention here...For example, I'd prefer someone else at 13-15 ppg than Randy Mos at 10-16 ppg.

It's just the phrasing. One way to interpret how you wrote it is less upside (worse) and more downside (worse). I probably would have read it the way you intended if you said lower ceiling/higher floor. But I knew what you meant, hence the

I agree that lower ceiling/higher floor makes the point more clear. Thanks!

 

[TwinTurbo]

I have Moss rated as the #7 WR this year. However, he'll probably be the #5 or #6 WR taken in most drafts. That would put him in the late second round of a 12 team league. I'd love to get him in the early 3rd round but I don't think he'll drop that far in most drafts.

 

[B. Nugget]

I have Moss rated as the #7 WR this year. However, he'll probably be the #5 or #6 WR taken in most drafts. That would put him in the late second round of a 12 team league. I'd love to get him in the early 3rd round but I don't think he'll drop that far in most drafts.

I see Moss as the ultimate buy low candidate right now, kinda like Steve Smith about a year ago. It wasn't that long ago that people were taking him at the end of the 1st round and now they are trying to get him early in the 3rd.B. Nugget

 

[GregR_2]

The only thing about Moss's situation that I think is a cause for concern is if his injuries are fully healed, or whether they are of the sort that will never quite heal completely. I recall there was some discussion of this last year, though I haven't followed Moss closely enough to say I'm current on his situation.